Deriving alternative criteria sets for alcohol use disorders using statistical optimization: Results from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health

Using Complete Enumeration to Derive "One-Size-Fits-All" Versus "Subgroup-Specific" Diagnostic Rules for Substance Use Disorder

The use of fixed diagnostic rules, whereby the same diagnostic algorithms are applied across all individuals regardless of personal attributes, has been the tradition in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. This practice of "averaging" across individuals inevitably introduces diagnostic error. Furthermore, these average rules are typically derived through expert consensus rather than through data-driven approaches. Utilizing National Survey on Drug Use and Health 2013 (N = 23, 889), we examined whether subgroup-specific, "customized" alcohol use disorder diagnostic rules, derived using deterministic optimization, perform better than an average, "one-size-fits-all" diagnostic rule. The average solution for the full sample included a set size of six and diagnostic threshold of three. Subgroups had widely varying set sizes (M = 6.870; range = 5-10) with less varying thresholds (M = 2.70; range = 2-4). External validation verified that the customized algorithms performed as well, and sometimes better than, the average solution in the prediction of relevant correlates. However, the average solution still performed adequately with respect to external validators.

Toward more efficient diagnostic criteria sets and rules: The use of optimization approaches in addiction science

Psychiatric diagnostic systems, such as The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5), use expert consensus to determine diagnostic criteria sets and rules (DCSRs), rather than exploiting empirical techniques to arrive at optimal solutions (OS). Our project utilizes complete enumeration (i.e., generating all possible subsets of item combinations A and B with all possible thresholds, T) to evaluate all possible DCSRs given a set of relevant diagnostic data. This method yields the entire population distribution of diagnostic classifications (i.e., diagnosis of the disorder versus no diagnosis) produced by a set of dichotomous predictors (i.e., diagnostic criteria). Once unique sets are enumerated, optimization on some predefined correlate or predictor will maximally separate diagnostic groups on one or more, disorder-specific "outcome" criteria. We used this approach to illustrate how to create a common Substance Use Disorder (SUD) DCSR that is applicable to multiple substances. We demonstrate the utility of this approach with respect to alcohol use disorder and Cannabis Use Disorder (CUD) using DSM-5 criteria as input variables. The optimal SUD solution with a moderate or above severity grading included four criteria (i.e. 1) having a strong urge or craving for the substance (CR), 2) failure to fulfill major role obligations at work school or home (FF), 3) continued use of the substance despite social or interpersonal problems caused by the substance use (SI) and 4) physically hazardous use (HU)) with a diagnostic threshold of two. The derived DCSR was validated with known correlates of SUD and performed as well as DSM-5. Our findings illustrate the value of using an empirical approach to what is typically a subjective process of choosing criteria and algorithms that is prone to bias. The optimization of diagnostic criteria can reduce criteria set sizes, resulting in decreased research, clinician, and patient burden.