A 150,000-year climatic record from Antarctic ice

A rigorous and versatile statistical test for correlations between stationary time series

In disciplines from biology to climate science, a routine task is to compute a correlation between a pair of time series and determine whether the correlation is statistically significant (i.e., unlikely under the null hypothesis that the time series are independent). This problem is challenging because time series typically exhibit autocorrelation and thus cannot be properly analyzed with the standard iid-oriented statistical tests. Although there are well-known parametric tests for time series, these are designed for linear correlation statistics and thus not suitable for the increasingly popular nonlinear correlation statistics. There are also nonparametric tests that can be used with any correlation statistic, but for these, the conditions that guarantee correct false positive rates are either restrictive or unclear. Here, we describe the truncated time-shift (TTS) test, a nonparametric procedure to test for dependence between 2 time series. We prove that this test correctly controls the false positive rate as long as one of the time series is stationary, a minimally restrictive requirement among current tests. The TTS test is versatile because it can be used with any correlation statistic. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate that this test performs correctly even while other tests suffer high false positive rates. In simulation examples, simple guidelines for parameter choices allow high statistical power to be achieved with sufficient data. We apply the test to datasets from climatology, animal behavior, and microbiome science, verifying previously discovered dependence relationships and detecting additional relationships.

A Jurassic record encodes an analogous Dansgaard-Oeschger climate periodicity

Earth’s past climate exhibits short-term (1500-year) pronounced fluctuations during the last glacial period, called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) glacial events, which have never been detected in pre-Quaternary times. The record of DO equivalent climate variability in Mesozoic strata can provide constraints on understanding these events. Here we highlight a prominent 1500-year cyclicity in a Jurassic (~ 155 Ma) ice-free sedimentary record from the Tethyan Basin. This Jurassic 1500-year cyclicity is encoded in high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) proxy data reflecting detrital variations, and expressed as marl-limestone couplets. Additionally, MS data detect the modulation of these DO-scale couplets by supercouplet sets, reflecting the precession and its harmonics. We suggest that this Jurassic DO-like cyclicity may originate from paleo-monsoon-like system, analogous to the record of DO events in the Pleistocene East Asian monsoon archives. Paleogeographic reconstructions and atmosphere–ocean simulations further support the potential existence of strong, ancient monsoon circulations in the Tethyan Basin during the Jurassic.

Chaos and periodicities in a climatic time series of the Iberian Margin

We analyze the time series of the temperature of the sedimentary core MD01-2443 originating from the Iberian Margin with a duration of 420 kyr. The series has been tested for unit-root and a long term trend is estimated. We identify four significant periodicities together with a low climatic activity every 100 kyr, and these were associated with internal and external forcings. Also, we identify a high-frequency fast component that acts on top of a nonlinear, irreversible slow-changing dynamics. We find the presence of chaos in the climate of the Iberian Margin by means of a neural network asymptotic test on the largest Lyapunov exponent. The analysis suggests that the chaotic dynamics is associated with the fast high-frequency component. We also carry out a statistical analysis of the dimensionality of the attractor. Our results confirm the possibility that periodic behavior and chaos may coexist on different time scales. This could lead to different degrees of predictability in the climate system according to the characteristic time scales and/or phase-space locations.

The residence time of Southern Ocean surface waters and the 100,000-year ice age cycle

From 1.25 million to 700,000 years ago, the ice age cycle deepened and lengthened from 41,000- to 100,000-year periodicity, a transition that remains unexplained. Using surface- and bottom-dwelling foraminifera from the Antarctic Zone of the Southern Ocean to reconstruct the deep-to-surface supply of water during the ice ages of the past 1.5 million years, we found that a reduction in deep water supply and a concomitant freshening of the surface ocean coincided with the emergence of the high-amplitude 100,000-year glacial cycle. We propose that this slowing of deep-to-surface circulation (i.e., a longer residence time for Antarctic surface waters) prolonged ice ages by allowing the Antarctic halocline to strengthen, which increased the resistance of the Antarctic upper water column to orbitally paced drivers of carbon dioxide release.

Assessment of the effect of climate changes in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene on niche conservatism of an arvicolid specialist

Climate change is not only evident, but its implications on biodiversity are already patent. The scientific community has delved into the limitations and capabilities of species to face changes in climatic conditions through experimental studies and, primarily, Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Nevertheless, the widespread use of SDMs comes with some intrinsic assumptions, such as niche conservatism, which are not always true. Alternatively, the fossil record can provide additional data to solve the uncertainties of species’ responses to climate change based on their history. Using a combined environmental (niche overlap indices) and geographical approach (temporal transferability of SDMs), we assessed the niche conservatism of Microtus cabrerae throughout its evolutionary history: the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene. The set of analyses performed within this timeframe provides a broad view pointing to a shift in the realized climatic niche of the species. Specifically, M. cabrerae exhibited a broader niche during glacial times than interglacial times, expanding towards novel conditions. Hence, the species might have developed an adaptive ability, as a consequence of mechanisms of local adaptation or natural pressures, or just be preadapted to cope with the novel environment, due to expansion into an unfilled portion of the niche. Nevertheless, the more restricted realized niche during last interglacial times reveals that the species could be close to its physiological limits.

Asynchrony between Antarctic temperature and CO2 associated with obliquity over the past 720,000 years

The δD temperature proxy in Antarctic ice cores varies in parallel with CO₂ through glacial cycles. However, these variables display a puzzling asynchrony. Well-dated records of Southern Ocean temperature will provide crucial information because the Southern Ocean is likely key in regulating CO₂ variations. Here, we perform multiple isotopic analyses on an Antarctic ice core and estimate temperature variations at this site and in the oceanic moisture source over the past 720,000 years, which extend the longest records by 300,000 years. Antarctic temperature is affected by large variations in local insolation that are induced by obliquity. At the obliquity periodicity, the Antarctic and ocean temperatures lag annual mean insolation. Further, the magnitude of the phase lag is minimal during low eccentricity periods, suggesting that secular changes in the global carbon cycle and the ocean circulation modulate the phase relationship among temperatures, CO₂ and insolation in the obliquity frequency band.

Physical interactions within a coupled climate model over the last glacial–interglacial cycle

A two-dimensional (2-D) seasonal model has been developed for simulating the transient response of the climate system to the astronomical forcing. The atmosphere is represented by a zonally averaged quasi-geostrophic model which includes accurate treatment of radiative transfer. The atmospheric model interacts with the other components of the climate system (ocean, sea-ice and land surface covered or not by snow and ice) through vertical fluxes of momentum, heat and humidity. The model explicitly incorporates surface energy balances and has snow and sea-ice mass budgets. The vertical profile of the upper-ocean temperature is computed by an interactive mixed-layer model which takes into account the meridional turbulent diffusion of heat. This model is asynchronously coupled to a model which simulates the dynamics of the Greenland, the northern American and the Eurasian ice sheets. Over the last glacial–interglacial cycle, the coupled model simulates climatic changes which are in general agreement with the low frequency part of deep-sea, ice and sea-level records. However, after 6000 yBP, the remaining ice volume of the Greenland and northern American ice sheets is overestimated in the simulation. The simulated climate is sensitive to the initial size of the Greenland ice sheet, to the ice-albedo positive feedback, to the precipitation-altitude negative feedback over the ice sheets, to the albedo of the aging snow and to the insolation increase, particularly at the southern edge of the ice sheets, which is important for their collapse or surge.

Synchronicity of Antarctic temperatures and local solar insolation on orbital timescales

The Milankovitch theory states that global climate variability on orbital timescales from tens to hundreds of thousands of years is dominated by the summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The supporting evidence includes reconstructed air temperatures in Antarctica that are nearly in phase with boreal summer insolation and out of phase with local summer insolation. Antarctic climate is therefore thought to be driven by northern summer insolation. A clear mechanism that links the two hemispheres on orbital timescales is, however, missing. We propose that key Antarctic temperature records derived from ice cores are biased towards austral winter because of a seasonal cycle in snow accumulation. Using present-day estimates of this bias in the 'recorder' system, here we show that the local insolation can explain the orbital component of the temperature record without having to invoke a link to the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, the Antarctic ice-core-derived temperature record, one of the best-dated records of the late Pleistocene temperature evolution, cannot be used to support or contradict the Milankovitch hypothesis that global climate changes are driven by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation variations.

Northern Hemisphere forcing of climatic cycles in Antarctica over the past 360,000 years

The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that glacial-interglacial cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The timing of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere at glacial-interglacial transitions (which are known as terminations) relative to variations in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere is an important test of this hypothesis. So far, it has only been possible to apply this test to the most recent termination, because the dating uncertainty associated with older terminations is too large to allow phase relationships to be determined. Here we present a new chronology of Antarctic climate change over the past 360,000 years that is based on the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen molecules in air trapped in the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice cores. This ratio is a proxy for local summer insolation, and thus allows the chronology to be constructed by orbital tuning without the need to assume a lag between a climate record and an orbital parameter. The accuracy of the chronology allows us to examine the phase relationships between climate records from the ice cores and changes in insolation. Our results indicate that orbital-scale Antarctic climate change lags Northern Hemisphere insolation by a few millennia, and that the increases in Antarctic temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration during the last four terminations occurred within the rising phase of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These results support the Milankovitch theory that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation triggered the last four deglaciations.

Bacterial recovery from ancient glacial ice

Ice that forms the bottom 18 m of a 308 m ice core drilled from the Guliya ice cap on the Qinghan-Tibetan plateau in Western China is over 750000 years old and is the oldest glacial ice known to date. Fourteen bacterial isolates have been recovered from samples of this ice from approximately 296 m below the surface (mbs). Based on 16S rDNA sequences, these are members of the alpha- and beta-proteobacterial, actinobacterial and low-G + C Gram-positive bacterial lineages. 16S rDNA molecules have also been amplified directly, cloned and sequenced from the ice-core melt water. These originated from Pseudomonas and Acinetobacter gamma-proteobacterial species. These results demonstrate that bacteria can be recovered from water ice that has frozen for time periods relevant to biological survival through terrestrial ice ages or during interplanetary transport.

Homogeneous climate variability across East Antarctica over the past three glacial cycles

Recent ice core studies have raised the disturbing possibility that glacial-interglacial climate changes may be non-uniform across Antarctica. These findings have been confined to records from the Ross Sea sector of the continent, but significant deviations in other areas would call into question the widely assumed validity of the climate record obtained from Vostok, East Antarctica, on large spatial scales. Here we present an isotopic profile from a core drilled at Dome Fuji, situated 1,500 km from Vostok in a different sector of East Antarctica. The two records show remarkable similarities over the past three glacial cycles (the extent of the Dome Fuji record) in both large-amplitude changes, such as terminations, interglacials and interstadials and more subtle glacial events, even when the origin of precipitation is accounted for. Our results indicate that Antarctic climate is essentially homogeneous at the scale of the East Antarctic Plateau, possibly as a consequence of the symmetry of the plateau and the adjacent ocean.

Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across termination III

The analysis of air bubbles from ice cores has yielded a precise record of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but the timing of changes in these gases with respect to temperature is not accurately known because of uncertainty in the gas age-ice age difference. We have measured the isotopic composition of argon in air bubbles in the Vostok core during Termination III (approximately 240,000 years before the present). This record most likely reflects the temperature and accumulation change, although the mechanism remains unclear. The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 +/- 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.

Asynchronous climate changes in the North Atlantic and Japan during the last termination

Pollen records from the annually laminated sediment sequence in Lake Suigetsu, Japan, suggest a sequence of climate changes during the Last Termination that resembles that of the North Atlantic region but with noticeable differences in timing. An interstadial interval commenced a few centuries earlier [approximately 15,000 years before the present (yr B.P.)] than the North Atlantic GI-1 (Bölling) event. Conversely, the onset of a Younger Dryas (YD)-like cold reversal (12,300 to 11,250 yr B.P.) postdated the North Atlantic GS-1 (YD) event by a few centuries. Climate in the Far East during the Last Termination reflected solar insolation changes as much as Atlantic influences.

The formation of weathering products on the LEW 85320 ordinary chondrite: evidence from carbon and oxygen stable isotope compositions and implications for carbonates in SNC meteorites

Isotopic analysis of nesquehonite recovered from the surface of the LEW 85320 H5 ordinary chondrite shows that the delta 13C and delta 18O values of the two generations of bicarbonate (Antarctic and Texas) are different: delta 13C = +7.9% and +4.2%; delta 18O = +17.9% and 12.1% respectively. Carbon isotopic compositions are consistent with equilibrium formation from atmospheric carbon dioxide at -2 +/- 4 degrees C (Antarctic) and +16 +/- 4 degrees C (Texas). Oxygen isotopic data imply that the water required for nesquehonite precipitation was derived from atmospheric water vapour or glacial meltwater which had locally exchanged with silicates, either in the meteorite or in underlying bedrock. Although carbonates with similar delta 13C values have been identified in the SNC meteorites EETA 79001 and Nakhla, petrographic and temperature constraints argue against their simply being terrestrial weathering products.