The ice-core record: climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W(-1) m(2)) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO(2), which agrees with IPCC estimates.

Evolution and adaptive radiation of antarctic fishes

There are few instances where a knowledge of the thermal physiology, habitats and lifestyles of a group of closely related species can be mapped onto a well-supported phylogeny and a detailed climatic history. The unique fish fauna of the Southern Ocean, dominated by a single group of fish whose phylogeny is known from traditional and molecular techniques, provides one such opportunity. Furthermore, these fish are living at an extreme temperature for marine organisms. Physiological and molecular studies are revealing details of the mechanisms of temperature compensation and, combined with knowledge of the thermal history, are throwing new light on the process of evolution in this unique group of fish.

Physical interactions within a coupled climate model over the last glacial–interglacial cycle

A two-dimensional (2-D) seasonal model has been developed for simulating the transient response of the climate system to the astronomical forcing. The atmosphere is represented by a zonally averaged quasi-geostrophic model which includes accurate treatment of radiative transfer. The atmospheric model interacts with the other components of the climate system (ocean, sea-ice and land surface covered or not by snow and ice) through vertical fluxes of momentum, heat and humidity. The model explicitly incorporates surface energy balances and has snow and sea-ice mass budgets. The vertical profile of the upper-ocean temperature is computed by an interactive mixed-layer model which takes into account the meridional turbulent diffusion of heat. This model is asynchronously coupled to a model which simulates the dynamics of the Greenland, the northern American and the Eurasian ice sheets. Over the last glacial–interglacial cycle, the coupled model simulates climatic changes which are in general agreement with the low frequency part of deep-sea, ice and sea-level records. However, after 6000 yBP, the remaining ice volume of the Greenland and northern American ice sheets is overestimated in the simulation. The simulated climate is sensitive to the initial size of the Greenland ice sheet, to the ice-albedo positive feedback, to the precipitation-altitude negative feedback over the ice sheets, to the albedo of the aging snow and to the insolation increase, particularly at the southern edge of the ice sheets, which is important for their collapse or surge.

Synchronicity of Antarctic temperatures and local solar insolation on orbital timescales

The Milankovitch theory states that global climate variability on orbital timescales from tens to hundreds of thousands of years is dominated by the summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The supporting evidence includes reconstructed air temperatures in Antarctica that are nearly in phase with boreal summer insolation and out of phase with local summer insolation. Antarctic climate is therefore thought to be driven by northern summer insolation. A clear mechanism that links the two hemispheres on orbital timescales is, however, missing. We propose that key Antarctic temperature records derived from ice cores are biased towards austral winter because of a seasonal cycle in snow accumulation. Using present-day estimates of this bias in the 'recorder' system, here we show that the local insolation can explain the orbital component of the temperature record without having to invoke a link to the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, the Antarctic ice-core-derived temperature record, one of the best-dated records of the late Pleistocene temperature evolution, cannot be used to support or contradict the Milankovitch hypothesis that global climate changes are driven by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation variations.

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across termination III

The analysis of air bubbles from ice cores has yielded a precise record of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but the timing of changes in these gases with respect to temperature is not accurately known because of uncertainty in the gas age-ice age difference. We have measured the isotopic composition of argon in air bubbles in the Vostok core during Termination III (approximately 240,000 years before the present). This record most likely reflects the temperature and accumulation change, although the mechanism remains unclear. The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 +/- 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.

Covariation of carbon dioxide and temperature from the Vostok ice core after deuterium-excess correction

Ice-core measurements of carbon dioxide and the deuterium palaeothermometer reveal significant covariation of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout the climate cycles of the past ice ages. This covariation provides compelling evidence that CO2 is an important forcing factor for climate. But this interpretation is challenged by some substantial mismatches of the CO2 and deuterium records, especially during the onset of the last glaciation, about 120 kyr ago. Here we incorporate measurements of deuterium excess from Vostok in the temperature reconstruction and show that much of the mismatch is an artefact caused by variations of climate in the water vapour source regions. Using a model that corrects for this effect, we derive a new estimate for the covariation of CO2 and temperature, of r2 = 0.89 for the past 150 kyr and r2 = 0.84 for the period 350-150 kyr ago. Given the complexity of the biogeochemical systems involved, this close relationship strongly supports the importance of carbon dioxide as a forcing factor of climate. Our results also suggest that the mechanisms responsible for the drawdown of CO2 may be more responsive to temperature than previously thought.

The global methane cycle: isotopes and mixing ratios, sources and sinks

A review of the global cycle of methane is presented with emphasis on its isotopic composition. The history of methane mixing ratios, reconstructed from measurements of air trapped in ice-cores is described. The methane record now extends back to 420 kyr ago in the case of the Vostok ice cores from Antarctica. The trends in mixing ratios and in delta13C values are reported for the two Hemispheres. The increase of the atmospheric methane concentration over the past 200 years, and by 1% per year since 1978, reaching 1.7 ppmv in 1990 is underlined. The various methane sources are presented. Indeed the authors describe the methane emissions by bacterial activity under anaerobic conditions in wet environments (wetlands, bogs, tundra, rice paddies), in ruminant stomachs and termite guts, and that originating from fossil carbon sources, such as biomass burning, coal mining, industrial losses, automobile exhaust, sea floor vent, and volcanic emissions. Furthermore, the main sinks of methane in the troposphere, soils or waters via oxidation are also reported, and the corresponding kinetic isotope effects.

Carbon isotopic evidence for methane hydrate instability during quaternary interstadials

Large (about 5 per mil) millennial-scale benthic foraminiferal carbon isotopic oscillations in the Santa Barbara Basin during the last 60,000 years reflect widespread shoaling of sedimentary methane gradients and increased outgassing from gas hydrate dissociation during interstadials. Furthermore, several large, brief, negative excursions (up to -6 per mil) coinciding with smaller shifts (up to -3 per mil) in depth-stratified planktonic foraminiferal species indicate massive releases of methane from basin sediments. Gas hydrate stability was modulated by intermediate-water temperature changes induced by switches in thermohaline circulation. These oscillations were likely widespread along the California margin and elsewhere, affecting gas hydrate instability and contributing to millennial-scale atmospheric methane oscillations.

Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations

Air trapped in bubbles in polar ice cores constitutes an archive for the reconstruction of the global carbon cycle and the relation between greenhouse gases and climate in the past. High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 +/- 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations. Despite strongly decreasing temperatures, high carbon dioxide concentrations can be sustained for thousands of years during glaciations; the size of this phase lag is probably connected to the duration of the preceding warm period, which controls the change in land ice coverage and the buildup of the terrestrial biosphere.

Climate forcings in the industrial era

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM FEEDBACKS TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

▪ Abstract  Anthropogenic greenhouse gases are expected to induce changes in global climate that can alter ecosystems in ways that, in turn, may further affect climate. Such climate-ecosystem interactions can generate either positive or negative feedbacks to the climate system, thereby either enhancing or diminishing the magnitude of global climate change. Important terrestrial feedback mechanisms include CO2 fertilization (negative feedbacks), carbon storage in vegetation and soils (positive and negative feedbacks), vegetation albedo (positive feedbacks), and peatland methane emissions (positive and negative feedbacks). While the processes involved are complex, not readily quantifiable, and demonstrate both positive and negative feedback potential, we conclude that the combined effect of the feedback mechanisms reviewed here will likely amplify climate change relative to current projections that have not yet adequately incorporated these mechanisms.

Gases in ice cores

Air trapped in glacial ice offers a means of reconstructing variations in the concentrations of atmospheric gases over time scales ranging from anthropogenic (last 200 yr) to glacial/interglacial (hundreds of thousands of years). In this paper, we review the glaciological processes by which air is trapped in the ice and discuss processes that fractionate gases in ice cores relative to the contemporaneous atmosphere. We then summarize concentration-time records for CO2 and CH4 over the last 200 yr. Finally, we summarize concentration-time records for CO2 and CH4 during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles, and their relation to records of global climate change.

The missing climate forcing

Observed climate change is consistent with radiative forcings on several time-scales for which the dominant forcings are known, ranging from the few years after a large volcanic eruption to glacial-to-interglacial changes. In the period with most detailed data, 1979 to the present, climate observations contain clear signatures of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. But in the full period since the industrial revolution began, global warming is only about half of that expected due to the principal forcing, increasing greenhouse gases. The direct radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols contributes only little towards resolving this discrepancy. Unforced climate variability is an unlikely explanation. We argue on the basis of several lines of indirect evidence that aerosol effects on clouds have caused a large negative forcing, at least -1 Wm-2, which has substantially offset greenhouse warming. The tasks of observing this forcing and determining the microphysical mechanisms at its basis are exceptionally difficult, but they are essential for the prognosis of future climate change.

The Bakerian Lecture, 1991 The predictability of weather and climate

There is large public and political interest in the predictability of weather and climate, in particular in the influence of human activities on the likely climate change during the next century. Numerical models are the main tools which enable the nonlinear processes involved in the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere and other components of the climate system to be integrated in an effective way. The performance of such models used for weather forecasting has continued to improve as more accurate data with better coverage has become available, as improved descriptions of the physics and dynamics have been incorporated and as computing capacity and speed have increased. Studies of the predictability with models suggest that with further improvements in data and models deterministic forecasting of detailed weather may ultimately have useful skill up to 2-3 weeks ahead. Beyond the limit of deterministic forecasting, some skill remains for the forecasting of general weather patterns which can be pursued by studying ensembles of model forecasts from slightly varying initial conditions. The largest difficulty with further improvements of numerical models lies in their inadequate treatment of the motions too small to be explicitly resolved. Interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean are responsible for substantial variations on seasonal, interannual and longer timescales. Forecasts are being provided of seasonal precipitation in the Sahel region of Africa based on a knowledge of global sea surface tem perature (SST) anomalies together with the assumption that such anomalies tend to persist from one season to the next. Attempts to forecast SST anomalies have centred on tropical regions in particular on the El Nino. Simple models show some skill in forecasting El Nino events 3-9 months in advance. Studies with more elaborate models which as yet only show partial success in simulating these events demonstrate the complex nature of the interactions involved. Turning to the likely changes in climate next century: if no changes occur in the atmosphere other than the increase in C0 2 and other greenhouse gases due to human activities, the increase in radiative forcing due to a doubling of atmospheric C0 2 concentration would lead to an increase of about 1.2 °C in global average temperature. Water vapour and ice-albedo feedbacks raise this to a figure of about 2.5 °C (with an uncertainty range of 1.5—4.5 °C) as estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Such a change would dominate over forcing likely to arise from other factors, and this estim ated rate of change next century is probably greater than any which has occurred on earth during the past 10000 years. The main uncertainties in climate change predictions arise from the inadequacies of the models in their descriptions of cloud-radiation and ocean circulation feedbacks. Until there is more confidence in the treatment of these feedbacks there are bound to be large uncertainties associated with any predictions of regional climate change. To reduce the uncertainties there need to be improvements in computer power, in model formulation and in our understanding of climate processes together with a large programme of observations of climate parameters to provide early detection of climate change and to provide validation of climate models and to provide data for initialization of model integrations. An important question is whether changes in climate due to changes in radiative forcing are predictable. It is pointed out that the response to climate over the past half million years to changes in forcing due to the variations in the Earth ’s orbit (Milankovitch cycles) is a regular one; some 60% of variations in the global temperature as established from the palaeontological record occur near frequencies of the Milankovitch cycles. We can, therefore, expect the changes in climate due to increasing greenhouse gases to be a largely predictable response. Large, but probably predictable, changes in the circulation of the deep ocean have modified climate change during past epochs and could have significant influence on future climate change.

The ice core record: past archive of the climate and signpost to the future

Ice cores from Antarctica provide multi proxy records of climate and environmental parameters. They have recorded glacial-interglacial temperature changes with cold stages associated with lower snow accumulation and high concentration of aerosols from marine and continental sources. The 160000- year-long Vostok isotope tem perature record exhibits signatures of the insolation orbital forcing as well as a close association between climate and greenhouse gas concentrations. These gases are likely to have played an im portant role in amplifying the am plitude of past global tem perature changes. Data from the ice show evidence of anthropogenic im pact on atm ospheric greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4 ) over the past 200 years. They suggest a climate sensitivity to greenhouse forcing which is consistent with General Circulation Models simulations for a future doubled atmospheric CO 2 . Further ice coring in Antarctica should help to improve our understanding of the climate system.

Climate Records Covering the Last Deglaciation

The oxygen-18/oxygen-16 ratio of molecular oxygen trapped in ice cores provides a time-stratigraphic marker for transferring the absolute chronology for the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP) II ice core to the Vostok and Byrd ice cores in Antarctica. Comparison of the climate records from these cores suggests that, near the beginning of the last deglaciation, warming in Antarctica began approximately 3000 years before the onset of the warm Bølling period in Greenland. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations began to rise 2000 to 3000 years before the warming began in Greenland and must have contributed to deglaciation and warming of temperate and boreal regions in the Northern Hemisphere.

There is more to climate than carbon dioxide

Discussion of climate change on a range of time scales has tended to focus on carbon dioxide and a changing greenhouse effect. Because carbon dioxide couples climate to ocean, land, and biota, it has appealed to scientists with an interest in the whole Earth system. Carbon dioxide has left a geological record in fossils, isotopes, and sediments, so we can reasonably expect to reconstruct its history. While important questions of detail remain to be resolved, many published applications of carbon cycle modelling suggest that we understand the biogeochemical cycles of carbon well enough to estimate carbon dioxide concentrations in the past and the future. Furthermore, we have an excellent instrumental record of recent changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. While these considerations make carbon dioxide attractive to paleoclimatologists, they do not necessarily make it a major component of climate change. I shall argue in this paper that clouds deserve much more attention than they have been getting.