Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer

Earthquake supercycles and fault interaction over the past 32 ka in the Lake Ebinur area, Xinjiang, China

Earthquake prediction and disaster assessment in tectonically active regions require a continuous and complete regional seismic archive, which is commonly difficult to obtain, especially for prehistoric records. Here, high-resolution analysis of the sedimentary sequence from Lake Ebinur in Xinjiang revealed a detailed history of environment evolution since 32 ka ago. Both the Cl content and ultrafine proportion revealed the changing climate: the climate was relatively dry with low lake-water volumes from 32 to 12 ka, while the climate became warmer and wetter since 12 ka. In addition, eight earthquakes were identified by comprehensive analysis of grain size and geochemical element proxies, showing more than two seismic supercycles, with gaps of ∼10.4 ka; these gaps are much larger than those inferred previously (∼4-7 ka). Notably, these seismic events exhibited a pattern of mutual transmittance between the BoA and Jinghenan faults. Such fault interaction can occur in the Lake Ebinur area because it is dominated by weak lithosphere in which strain is easily accumulated and released; the interaction can also be attributed to the unique spatial distribution and immature nature of both faults. Combined with trenching investigations, our high-resolution analysis of lacustrine sediments can reveal a complete history of tectonic activity, which can efficiently serve regional earthquake prediction and disaster assessment.

Viscoelastic Slider Blocks as a Model for a Seismogenic Fault

In this work, a model is proposed to examine the role of viscoelasticity in the generation of simulated earthquake-like events. This model serves to investigate how nonlinear processes in the Earth's crust affect the triggering and decay patterns of earthquake sequences. These synthetic earthquake events are numerically simulated using a slider-block model containing viscoelastic standard linear solid (SLS) elements to reproduce the dynamics of an earthquake fault. The simulated system exhibits elements of self-organized criticality, and results in the generation of avalanches that behave similarly to naturally occurring seismic events. The model behavior is analyzed using the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which suitably represents the observed triggering and decay patterns; however, parameter estimates deviate from those resulting from natural aftershock sequences. Simulated aftershock sequences from this model are characterized by slightly larger p-values, indicating a faster-than-normal decay of aftershock rates within the system. The ETAS fit, along with realistic simulated frequency-size distributions, supports the inclusion of viscoelastic rheology to model the seismogenic fault dynamics.

Afterslip Moment Scaling and Variability From a Global Compilation of Estimates

Aseismic afterslip is postseismic fault sliding that may significantly redistribute crustal stresses and drive aftershock sequences. Afterslip is typically modeled through geodetic observations of surface deformation on a case-by-case basis, thus questions of how and why the afterslip moment varies between earthquakes remain largely unaddressed. We compile 148 afterslip studies following 53 M _w 6.0-9.1 earthquakes, and formally analyze a subset of 88 well-constrained kinematic models. Afterslip and coseismic moments scale near-linearly, with a median Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.91 after bootstrapping (95% range: 0.89-0.93). We infer that afterslip area and average slip scale with coseismic moment as M o 2 / 3 and M o 1 / 3 , respectively. The ratio of afterslip to coseismic moment (M _rel ) varies from <1% to >300% (interquartile range: 9%-32%). M _rel weakly correlates with M _o (CC: -0.21, attributed to a publication bias), rupture aspect ratio (CC: -0.31), and fault slip rate (CC: 0.26, treated as a proxy for fault maturity), indicating that these factors affect afterslip. M _rel does not correlate with mainshock dip, rake, or depth. Given the power-law decay of afterslip, we expected studies that started earlier and spanned longer timescales to capture more afterslip, but M _rel does not correlate with observation start time or duration. Because M _rel estimates for a single earthquake can vary by an order of magnitude, we propose that modeling uncertainty currently presents a challenge for systematic afterslip analysis. Standardizing modeling practices may improve model comparability, and eventually allow for predictive afterslip models that account for mainshock and fault zone factors to be incorporated into aftershock hazard models.

Predicting delayed instabilities in viscoelastic solids

Determining the stability of a viscoelastic structure is a difficult task. Seemingly stable conformations of viscoelastic structures may gradually creep until their stability is lost, while a discernible creeping in viscoelastic solids does not necessarily lead to instability. In lieu of theoretical predictive tools for viscoelastic instabilities, we are presently limited to numerical simulation to predict future stability. In this work, we describe viscoelastic solids through a temporally evolving instantaneous reference metric with respect to which elastic strains are measured. We show that for incompressible viscoelastic solids, this transparent and intuitive description allows to reduce the question of future stability to static calculations. We demonstrate the predictive power of the approach by elucidating the subtle mechanism of delayed instability in thin elastomeric shells, showing quantitative agreement with experiments.

Transient Deformation in California From Two Decades of GPS Displacements: Implications for a Three-Dimensional Kinematic Reference Frame

Our understanding of plate boundary deformation has been enhanced by transient signals observed against the backdrop of time-independent secular motions. We make use of a new analysis of displacement time series from about 1,000 continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in California from 1999 to 2018 to distinguish tectonic and nontectonic transients from secular motion. A primary objective is to define a high-resolution three-dimensional reference frame (datum) for California that can be rapidly maintained with geodetic data to accommodate both secular and time-dependent motions. To this end, we compare the displacements to those predicted by a horizontal secular fault slip model for the region and construct displacement and strain rate fields. Over the past 19 years, California has experienced 19 geodetically detectable earthquakes and widespread postseismic deformation. We observe postseismic strain rate variations as large as 1,000 nstrain/year with moment releases equivalent up to an Mw6.8 earthquake. We find significant secular differences up to 10 mm/year with the fault slip model, from the Mendocino Triple Junction to the southern Cascadia subduction zone, the northern Basin and Range, and the Santa Barbara channel. Secular vertical uplift is observed across the Transverse Ranges, Coastal Ranges, Sierra Nevada, as well as large-scale postseismic uplift after the 1999 Mw7.1 Hector Mine and 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. We also identify areas of vertical land motions due to anthropogenic, natural, and magmatic processes. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the kinematic datum by improving the accuracy of high-spatial-resolution 12-day repeat-cycle Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar displacement and velocity maps.

Transient rheology of the Sumatran mantle wedge revealed by a decade of great earthquakes

Understanding the rheological properties of the upper mantle is essential to develop a consistent model of mantle dynamics and plate tectonics. However, the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of these properties remain unclear. Here, we infer the rheological properties of the asthenosphere across multiple great megathrust earthquakes between 2004 and 2014 along the Sumatran subduction zone, taking advantage of decade-long continuous GPS and tide-gauge measurements. We observe transient mantle wedge flow following these earthquakes, and infer the temporal evolution of the effective viscosity. We show that the evolution of stress and strain rate following these earthquakes is better matched by a bi-viscous than by a power-law rheology model, and we estimate laterally heterogeneous transient and background viscosities on the order of ~10¹⁷ and ~10¹⁹ Pa s, respectively. Our results constitute a preliminary rheological model to explain stress evolution within earthquake cycles and the development of seismic hazard in the region.

The rheology of the upper mantle is key to understanding how plate tectonics may evolve. Here, using GPS and tide-gauge measurements along the Sumatran subduction zone, the authors’ show that a bi-viscous rheology model is needed to explain the stress and strain evolution of the upper mantle following earthquakes.

Imaging the distribution of transient viscosity after the 2016 Mw 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake

The deformation of mantle and crustal rocks in response to stress plays a crucial role in the distribution of seismic and volcanic hazards, controlling tectonic processes ranging from continental drift to earthquake triggering. However, the spatial variation of these dynamic properties is poorly understood as they are difficult to measure. We exploited the large stress perturbation incurred by the 2016 earthquake sequence in Kumamoto, Japan, to directly image localized and distributed deformation. The earthquakes illuminated distinct regions of low effective viscosity in the lower crust, notably beneath the Mount Aso and Mount Kuju volcanoes, surrounded by larger-scale variations of viscosity across the back-arc. This study demonstrates a new potential for geodesy to directly probe rock rheology in situ across many spatial and temporal scales.

Power-law rheology controls aftershock triggering and decay

The occurrence of aftershocks is a signature of physical systems exhibiting relaxation phenomena. They are observed in various natural or experimental systems and usually obey several non-trivial empirical laws. Here we consider a cellular automaton realization of a nonlinear viscoelastic slider-block model in order to infer the physical mechanisms of triggering responsible for the occurrence of aftershocks. We show that nonlinear viscoelasticity plays a critical role in the occurrence of aftershocks. The model reproduces several empirical laws describing the statistics of aftershocks. In case of earthquakes, the proposed model suggests that the power-law rheology of the fault gauge, underlying lower crust, and upper mantle controls the decay rate of aftershocks. This is verified by analysing several prominent aftershock sequences for which the rheological properties of the underlying crust and upper mantle were established.

Repeating microearthquake sequences interact predominantly through postseismic slip

Studying small repeating earthquakes enables better understanding of fault physics and characterization of fault friction properties. Some of the nearby repeating sequences appear to interact, such as the ‘San Francisco' and ‘Los Angeles' repeaters on the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault. It is typically assumed that such interactions are induced by static stress changes due to coseismic slip. Here we present a study of the interaction of repeating earthquakes in the framework of rate-and-state fault models using state-of-the-art simulation methods that reproduce both realistic seismic events and long-term earthquake sequences. Our simulations enable comparison among several types of stress transfer that occur between the repeating events. Our major finding is that postseismic creep dominates the interaction, with earthquake triggering occurring at distances much larger than typically assumed. Our results open a possibility of using interaction of repeating sequences to constrain friction properties of creeping segments.

Small repeating earthquakes can be used to understand fault properties such as friction. Here, Lui et al. model the interaction between repeating earthquakes and find that postseismic creep dominates as the mechanism, which may help constrain the frictional properties of creeping fault segments.

Physical applications of GPS geodesy: a review

Geodesy, the oldest science, has become an important discipline in the geosciences, in large part by enhancing Global Positioning System (GPS) capabilities over the last 35 years well beyond the satellite constellation's original design. The ability of GPS geodesy to estimate 3D positions with millimeter-level precision with respect to a global terrestrial reference frame has contributed to significant advances in geophysics, seismology, atmospheric science, hydrology, and natural hazard science. Monitoring the changes in the positions or trajectories of GPS instruments on the Earth's land and water surfaces, in the atmosphere, or in space, is important for both theory and applications, from an improved understanding of tectonic and magmatic processes to developing systems for mitigating the impact of natural hazards on society and the environment. Besides accurate positioning, all disturbances in the propagation of the transmitted GPS radio signals from satellite to receiver are mined for information, from troposphere and ionosphere delays for weather, climate, and natural hazard applications, to disturbances in the signals due to multipath reflections from the solid ground, water, and ice for environmental applications. We review the relevant concepts of geodetic theory, data analysis, and physical modeling for a myriad of processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and discuss the extensive global infrastructure that has been built to support GPS geodesy consisting of thousands of continuously operating stations. We also discuss the integration of heterogeneous and complementary data sets from geodesy, seismology, and geology, focusing on crustal deformation applications and early warning systems for natural hazards.

Survival of heterogeneous stress distributions created by precursory slip at frictional interfaces

We study the dynamics of successive slip events at a frictional interface with finite-element simulations. Because of the viscous properties of the material, the stress concentrations created by the arrest of precursory slip are not erased by the propagation of the following rupture but reappear with the relaxation of the material. We show that the amplitude of the stress concentrations follows an exponential decay, which is controlled by the bulk material properties. These results highlight the importance of viscosity in the heterogeneous stress state of a frictional interface and reveal the "memory effect" that affects successive ruptures.

Role of static stress diffusion in the spatiotemporal organization of aftershocks

We investigate the spatial distribution of aftershocks, and we find that aftershock linear density exhibits a maximum that depends on the main shock magnitude, followed by a power law decay. The exponent controlling the asymptotic decay and the fractal dimensionality of epicenters clearly indicate triggering by static stress. The nonmonotonic behavior of the linear density and its dependence on the main shock magnitude can be interpreted in terms of diffusion of static stress. This is supported by the power law growth with exponent H approximately 0.5 of the average main-aftershock distance. Implementing static stress diffusion within a stochastic model for aftershock occurrence, we are able to reproduce aftershock linear density spatial decay, its dependence on the main shock magnitude, and its evolution in time.

Evidence of power-law flow in the Mojave desert mantle

Studies of the Earth's response to large earthquakes can be viewed as large rock deformation experiments in which sudden stress changes induce viscous flow in the lower crust and upper mantle that lead to observable postseismic surface deformation. Laboratory experiments suggest that viscous flow of deforming hot lithospheric rocks is characterized by a power law in which strain rate is proportional to stress raised to a power, n (refs 2, 3). Most geodynamic models of flow in the lower crust and upper mantle, however, resort to newtonian (linear) stress-strain rate relations. Here we show that a power-law model of viscous flow in the mantle with n = 3.5 successfully explains the spatial and temporal evolution of transient surface deformation following the 1992 Landers and 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes in southern California. A power-law rheology implies that viscosity varies spatially with stress causing localization of strain, and varies temporally as stress evolves, rendering newtonian models untenable. Our findings are consistent with laboratory-derived flow law parameters for hot and wet olivine--the most abundant mineral in the upper mantle--and support the contention that, at least beneath the Mojave desert, the upper mantle is weaker than the lower crust.

Migration of seismic scatterers associated with the 1993 Parkfield aseismic transient event

The time-varying deformation field within a fault zone, particularly at depths where earthquakes occur, is important for understanding fault behaviour and its relation to earthquake occurrence. But detection of this temporal variation has been extremely difficult, although laboratory studies have long suggested that certain structural changes, such as the properties of crustal fractures, should be seismically detectable. Here we present evidence that such structural changes are indeed observable. In particular, we find a systematic temporal variation in the seismograms of repeat microearthquakes that occurred on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault over the decade 1987-97. Our analysis reveals a change of the order of 10 m in the location of scatterers which plausibly lie within the fault zone at a depth of approximately 3 km. The motion of the scatterers is coincident, in space and time, with the onset of a well documented aseismic transient (deformation event). We speculate that this structural change is the result of a stress-induced redistribution of fluids in fluid-filled fractures caused by the transient event.

Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.

Post-earthquake ground movements correlated to pore-pressure transients

Large earthquakes alter the stress in the surrounding crust, leading to triggered earthquakes and aftershocks. A number of time-dependent processes, including afterslip, pore-fluid flow and viscous relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle, further modify the stress and pore pressure near the fault, and hence the tendency for triggered earthquakes. It has proved difficult, however, to distinguish between these processes on the basis of direct field observations, despite considerable effort. Here we present a unique combination of measurements consisting of satellite radar interferograms and water-level changes in geothermal wells following two magnitude-6.5 earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone. The deformation recorded in the interferograms cannot be explained by either afterslip or visco-elastic relaxation, but is consistent with rebound of a porous elastic material in the first 1-2 months following the earthquakes. This interpretation is confirmed by direct measurements which show rapid (1-2-month) recovery of the earthquake-induced water-level changes. In contrast, the duration of the aftershock sequence is projected to be approximately 3.5 years, suggesting that pore-fluid flow does not control aftershock duration. But because the surface strains are dominated by pore-pressure changes in the shallow crust, we cannot rule out a longer pore-pressure transient at the depth of the aftershocks. The aftershock duration is consistent with models of seismicity rate variations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws.

The mantle flow field beneath western North America

Although motions at the surface of tectonic plates are well determined, the accompanying horizontal mantle flow is not. We have combined observations of surface deformation and upper mantle seismic anisotropy to estimate this flow field for western North America. We find that the mantle velocity is 5.5 +/- 1.5 centimeters per year due east in a hot spot reference frame, nearly opposite to the direction of North American plate motion (west-southwest). The flow is only weakly coupled to the motion of the surface plate, producing a small drag force. This flow field is probably due to heterogeneity in mantle density associated with the former Farallon oceanic plate beneath North America.