Comas M, Mendivil J, Andreu M, Hernández C, Castells X. Long-Term Prediction of the Demand of Colonoscopies Generated by a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program.
PLoS One 2016;
11:e0164666. [PMID:
27732635 PMCID:
PMC5061389 DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0164666]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2016] [Accepted: 09/28/2016] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program.
METHODS
A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50-69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results. The model was mainly fed using data from the first and second rounds of a Spanish program (2010-2013). Data on post-polypectomy surveillance results were obtained from the literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed on the effect of participation, FIT positivity, and adherence to surveillance colonoscopies. The main outcome variables were the number of colonoscopies after a positive FIT, surveillance colonoscopies, and the overall number of colonoscopies.
RESULTS
An average yearly number of 1,200 colonoscopies after a positive FIT were predicted per 100,000 inhabitants with a slight increase to 1,400 at the end of the 20-year period. Surveillance colonoscopies increased to an average of 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants in the long-term, showing certain stabilization in the last years of the 20-year simulation horizon. The results were highly sensitive to FIT positivity.
CONCLUSIONS
Implementing a population-based CRC screening program will increase the demand for colonoscopies, which is expected to double in 20 years, mainly due to an increase in surveillance colonoscopies.
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