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Yang X, Zhou B, Zhou L, Cui L, Zeng J, Wang S, Shi W, Zhang Y, Luo X, Xu C, Xue Y, Chen H, Chen S, Wang G, Guo L, Jose PA, Wilcox CS, Wu S, Wu G, Zeng C. Development and Validation of Prediction Models for Hypertensive Nephropathy, the PANDORA Study. Front Cardiovasc Med 2022; 9:794768. [PMID: 35360013 PMCID: PMC8960139 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2022.794768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2021] [Accepted: 02/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
ImportanceHypertension is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but currently, those at risk are poorly identified.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a prediction model for the development of hypertensive nephropathy (HN).Design, Setting, and ParticipantsIndividual data of cohorts of hypertensive patients from Kailuan, China served to derive and validate a multivariable prediction model of HN from 12, 656 individuals enrolled from January 2006 to August 2007, with a median follow-up of 6.5 years. The developed model was subsequently tested in both derivation and external validation cohorts.VariablesDemographics, physical examination, laboratory, and comorbidity variables.Main Outcomes and MeasuresHypertensive nephropathy was defined as hypertension with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and/or proteinuria.ResultsAbout 8.5% of patients in the derivation cohort developed HN after a median follow-up of 6.5 years that was similar in the validation cohort. Eight variables in the derivation cohort were found to contribute to the risk of HN: salt intake, diabetes mellitus, stroke, serum low-density lipoprotein, pulse pressure, age, hypertension duration, and serum uric acid. The discrimination by concordance statistics (C-statistics) was 0.785 (IQR, 0.770-0.800); the calibration slope was 1.129, the intercept was –0.117; and the overall accuracy by adjusted R2 was 0.998 with similar results in the validation cohort. A simple points scale developed from these data (0, low to 40, high) detected a low morbidity of 7% in the low-risk group (0–10 points) compared with >40% in the high-risk group (>20 points).Conclusions and RelevanceA prediction model of HN over 8 years had high discrimination and calibration, but this model requires prospective evaluation in other cohorts, to confirm its potential to improve patient care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoli Yang
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Bingqing Zhou
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Li Zhou
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Liufu Cui
- Department of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, China
| | - Jing Zeng
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Shuo Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Weibin Shi
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Ye Zhang
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Xiaoli Luo
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Chunmei Xu
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Yuanzheng Xue
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
| | - Hao Chen
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Shuohua Chen
- Department of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, China
| | - Guodong Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, China
| | - Li Guo
- Department of Endocrinology, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Pedro A. Jose
- Division of Renal Disease & Hypertension, The George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Christopher S. Wilcox
- Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Medicine and Center for Hypertension, Kidney and Vascular Health, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Shouling Wu
- Department of Cardiology, Kailuan General Hospital, Tangshan, China
- *Correspondence: Shouling Wu,
| | - Gengze Wu
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
- Gengze Wu,
| | - Chunyu Zeng
- Department of Cardiology, Daping Hospital, Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Chongqing Key Laboratory for Hypertension Research, Chongqing Cardiovascular Clinical Research Center, Chongqing Institute of Cardiology, Chongqing, China
- State Key Laboratory of Trauma, Burns and Combined Injury, Daping Hospital, The Third Military Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Cardiovascular Research Center of Chongqing College, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, China
- Chunyu Zeng,
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Andrikou I, Dimitriadis K, Konstantinidis D, Leontsinis I, Andrikou E, Iliakis P, Liatakis I, Manta E, Karaminas N, Tsioufis P, Magkas N, Georgiopoulos G, Chrysohoou C, Thomopoulos C, Tousoulis D, Tsioufis C. Left ventricular mass versus pulse wave velocity as predictors of coronary artery disease in hypertensive patients: data from a 6-year-follow-up study. J Hum Hypertens 2021; 36:617-621. [PMID: 34326471 DOI: 10.1038/s41371-021-00560-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2020] [Revised: 05/27/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
In treated hypertensive patients, there is a substantial residual cardiovascular (CV) risk that cannot be assessed by the available prediction models. This risk can be associated with subclinical organ damage, such as increased left ventricular mass (LVM) and arterial stiffness. However, it remains unknown which of these two CV markers better predicts coronary artery disease (CAD). A prospective cohort study was used to answer the above question. The study sample consisted of 1033 patients with hypertension (mean age 55.6 years, 538 males) free of CAD at baseline, who were followed for a mean period of 6 years. At baseline, all subjects underwent a complete echocardiographic study and pulse wave velocity (PWV) measurement. Hypertensive individuals who developed CAD (2.8%) compared to those without CAD at follow-up, had a higher baseline LVM index (by 16.7 g/m2, p < 0.001), higher prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (21% greater, p = 0.027) and greater prevalence of high PWV levels at baseline (21% greater, p = 0.019). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that baseline age >65 years (HR = 2.067, p = 0.001), male gender (HR = 3.664, p = 0.001), baseline chronic kidney disease (HR = 2.020, p = 0.026), baseline diabetes mellitus (HR = 1.952, p = 0.015) and baseline LVH (HR = 2.124 p = 0.001) turned out to be independent predictors of CAD, whereas high PWV levels were not. LVH proved to be an independent prognosticator of CAD in contrast to arterial stiffness that was not related to CAD after accounting for established confounders. Therefore, LVM can reliably help physicians to identify high-risk hypertensives in whom an intensified therapeutic management is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ioannis Andrikou
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Kyriakos Dimitriadis
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Dimitris Konstantinidis
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Ioannis Leontsinis
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Eirini Andrikou
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Panagiotis Iliakis
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Ioannis Liatakis
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Eleni Manta
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Nikos Karaminas
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Panagiotis Tsioufis
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Nikolaos Magkas
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Georgios Georgiopoulos
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Christina Chrysohoou
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Costas Thomopoulos
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Dimitrios Tousoulis
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Costas Tsioufis
- First Cardiology Clinic, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Hippokration Hospital, Athens, Greece.
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Cubillos C MP, Del Salas P, Zambrano PO. [Microalbuminuria in pediatric patients diagnosed with hemolytic uremic syndrome]. REVISTA CHILENA DE PEDIATRIA 2015; 86:92-6. [PMID: 26235688 DOI: 10.1016/j.rchipe.2015.04.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2013] [Accepted: 01/13/2015] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) is characterized by the presence of microangiopathic hemolytic anemia, thrombocytopenia, and acute kidney failure. It is the leading cause of acute kidney failure in children under 3 years of age. A variable number of patients develop proteinuria, hypertension, and chronic renal failure. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the renal involvement in pediatric patients diagnosed with HUS using the microalbumin/creatinine ratio. PATIENTS AND METHODS Descriptive concurrent cohort study that analyzed the presence of microalbuminuria in patients diagnosed with HUS between January 2001 and March 2012, who evolved without hypertension and normal renal function (clearance greater than 90ml/min using Schwartz formula). Demographic factors (age, sex), clinical presentation at time of diagnosis, use of antibiotics prior to admission, and need for renal replacement therapy were evaluated. RESULTS Of the 24 patients studied, 54% were male. The mean age at diagnosis was two years. Peritoneal dialysis was required in 45%, and 33% developed persistent microalbuminuria. Antiproteinuric treatment was introduce in 4 patients, with good response. The mean follow-up was 6 years (range 6 months to 11 years). The serum creatinine returned to normal in all patients during follow up. CONCLUSIONS The percentage of persistent microalbuminuria found in patients with a previous diagnosis of HUS was similar in our group to that described in the literature. Antiproteinuric treatment could delay kidney damage, but further multicenter prospective studies are necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- María Paz Cubillos C
- Becaria de Pediatría, Universidad de Chile, Campus Sur, Santiago de Chile, Chile.
| | - Paulina Del Salas
- Unidad de Nefrología Pediátrica, Hospital de niños Exequiel González Cortés, Santiago de Chile, Chile
| | - Pedro O Zambrano
- Unidad de Nefrología Pediátrica, Hospital de niños Exequiel González Cortés, Santiago de Chile, Chile; Unidad de Nefrología Pediátrica, División de Pediatría, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago de Chile, Chile
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Tsioufis C, Tsiachris D, Kasiakogias A, Dimitriadis K, Petras D, Goumenos D, Siamopoulos K, Stefanadis C. Preclinical cardiorenal interrelationships in essential hypertension. Cardiorenal Med 2013; 3:38-47. [PMID: 23946723 DOI: 10.1159/000346817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
A diseased heart causes numerous adverse effects on kidney function, and vice versa renal disease can significantly impair cardiac function. Beyond these heart-kidney interrelationships at the clinical level, a reciprocal association has been suggested to exist even in the early stages of those organs' dysfunction. The aim of the present review is to provide evidence of the presence of a preclinical cardiorenal syndrome in the particular setting of essential hypertension, focusing on the subsequent hypertensive sequelae on heart and kidneys. In particular, a plethora of studies have demonstrated not only the predictive role of kidney damage, as expressed by either decreased glomerular filtration or increased urine albumin excretion, for adverse left ventricular functional and structural adaptations but also preclinical heart disease, i.e. left ventricular hypertrophy that is associated with deterioration of renal function. Notably, these reciprocal interactions seem to exist even at the level of microcirculation, since both coronary flow reserve and renal hemodynamics are strongly related with clinical and preclinical renal and cardiac damage, respectively. In this preclinical setting, common pathophysiological denominators, including the increased hemodynamic load, sympathetic and renin-angiotensin system overactivity, increased subclinical inflammatory reaction, and endothelial dysfunction, account not only for the reported associations between overt cardiac and renal damage but also for the parallel changes that occur in coronary and renal microcirculation.
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