The second Bagshawe lecture. Matching basic research to the management of cancer: the view from the other side of the fence

Alternative models for early onset of childhood leukaemia

This paper considers theoretical models for early-onset childhood leukaemia. The major focus of attention is the two-hit mutational model. A simple mathematical representation is used to explore mechanisms which might lead to onset of leukaemia at an unusually early age. Two such mechanisms are considered. The first of these, a germinal or very early embryonic first mutation is shown to imply that multiple independent leukaemic clones are likely to arise sequentially in very young patients. Clonal multiplicity could underlie the poor prognosis which has been associated with early onset childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. It implies that curative therapy might require intensive treatment followed by bone marrow rescue to ensure eradication of all single-hit predisposed target cells. The prediction of multiple leukaemic clones might be tested in female patients by means of X-linked restriction fragment length polymorphisms and in patients with B-lineage neoplasms by determination of immunoglobin gene rearrangements. A second mechanism for early onset leukaemogenesis is the occurrence of a high cellular mutation rate in some patients. This is shown to result in leukaemia at significantly earlier age if the mutation rate is sufficiently high to influence target cell loss rate. This mechanism would enable more rapid clonal evolution of leukaemic cells and the early emergence of drug resistant variants. The prediction might be tested experimentally by sequential observation of genetic markers (e.g. Karyotypes, DNA fingerprint patterns) and the rate of emergence of drug resistant phenotypes. Other models, considered more briefly, include one-hit mutational 'dominants' in the developing embryo and faster growth kinetics in neoplasms of younger patients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)