Problems with registration of cutaneous malignant melanoma in England

Incidence of in Situ vs Invasive Melanoma: Testing the "Obligate Precursor" Hypothesis

Background

Melanoma incidence has been rising in populations with predominantly European ancestry (White), speculated to be partly driven by heightened detection of indolent tumors. If in situ melanomas are destined to evolve to invasive cancers, detecting and removing them should deplete the pool of invasive lesions, and people with in situ melanoma should, on average, be younger than those with invasive melanoma.

Methods

We analyzed long-term incidence trends (1982-2018) for in situ and invasive melanomas in 3 predominantly White populations with high, medium, and low melanoma rates: Queensland (Australia), United States White, and Scotland. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of in situ to invasive melanomas and estimated the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects. We compared age at diagnosis of in situ vs invasive melanomas overall and stratified by sex and anatomic site.

Results

In all 3 populations, the in situ to invasive incidence rate ratio increased statistically significantly from less than 0.3 in 1982 to 1.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.88 to 2.02) in Queensland, 0.93 (95% CI = 0.90 to 0.96) in the US White population, and 0.58 (95% CI = 0.54 to 0.63) in Scotland in 2018. The mean age at diagnosis of in situ melanomas was the same or higher than invasive melanomas for almost all time periods among men and women and on all body sites except the lower limbs.

Conclusions

The increasing ratio of in situ to invasive melanoma incidence over time, together with the high (and increasing) mean age at diagnosis of in situ melanomas, is consistent with more indolent lesions coming to clinical attention than in previous eras.

Identification of distinct genomic features reveals frequent somatic AHNAK and PTEN mutations predominantly in primary malignant melanoma presenting in the ureter

BACKGROUND

Primary malignant melanoma of the ureter is extremely rare. Genetic variants to the increased risk of developing the disease have not yet been investigated.

METHODS

Tumour mutation profiling for primary malignant melanoma of the ureter was performed by whole-exome sequencing. Immunohistochemistry was performed to verify histopathological features and the variants of predisposing genes and driver mutation genes. Furthermore, we conducted a literature review and Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result-based study by searching public databases.

RESULTS

We identified 38 somatic single nucleotide variants and 9 somatic insertions and deletions (INDELs) in tumour specimens. After filtering with the Cancer Gene Census database, seven predisposing genes and two driver mutation genes were identified. Moreover, the immunohistochemical profile showed that tumour cells were positive for Melan-A, melanoma gp100 human melanoma black 45 (HMB45), S100 beta and P53. The expression levels of two driver mutation genes (phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) and desmoyokin (AHNAK) and five predisposing genes (AT-rich interaction domain 1B (ARID1B), catalase, eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4 gamma 3 (EIF4G3), ANK3 and collagen type I) were significantly downregulated in tumour tissues compared to paracancerous tissues. In the literature review and Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-based study, patients with primary malignant melanoma of the urinary tract had worse clinical outcomes than patients with primary urothelial carcinoma after 1:2 propensity score matching (P = 0.010). Additionally, Cox multivariate analysis for patients with primary malignant melanoma of the urinary tract indicated that distant metastasis (hazard ratio = 1.185; P = 0.044) was an independent predictor for overall survival, and tumour focality (hazard ratio = 0.602; P = 0.017) and non-surgery (hazard ratio = 0.434; P = 0.003) were independent factors for tumour progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study is the first to provide evidence that the distinct phenotypes of primary malignant melanoma of the ureter may be due to different genetic variations. The prognosis of primary malignant melanoma of the urinary tract was poorer than that of primary urothelial carcinoma of the urinary tract.

Comprehensive capture of cutaneous melanoma by the Ontario Cancer Registry: validation study using community pathology reports

Melanoma is often managed outside hospital settings, creating the potential for underreporting to cancer registries. To our knowledge, completeness of melanoma capture in cancer registries has not been assessed using external data sources since the 1980s. We evaluated the melanoma capture rate from 1993 to 2009 in a provincial cancer registry. We identified all melanoma diagnoses in pathology reports from a major community laboratory in Ontario, Canada. Pathologically confirmed diagnoses were linked to Ontario Cancer Registry (OCR) records using health insurance numbers. We calculated capture rates as the proportion of patients with melanoma confirmed by a pathology report, with a corresponding melanoma diagnosis in OCR. OCR captured 3,798 of 4,275 (88.8, 95 % confidence interval: 87.9, 89.8 %) invasive melanoma diagnoses over the 17-year period. Annual capture rates of 94 % or higher were found for over half the study period. Among all 29,133 melanoma diagnoses in OCR, 27.6 % were registered based on a pathology report alone, compared with 3.4 % for non-cutaneous malignancies. This suggests that comprehensive capture of melanoma cases by a provincial cancer registry is achievable using source data from community laboratories. There is a need for ongoing validation to ensure data remain accurate and complete to reliably inform clinical care, research, and policy.

40-year trends in skin cancer in British Columbia, Canada, 1973 to 2003

BACKGROUND

Skin cancer is common in North America. Incidence rate trends are potentially important in the assessment of the effects of measures to increase sun awareness in the population as well as measures to reduce sun damage.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence of basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in a geographically defined Canadian population over a 40-year period.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the BC Cancer Registry for the calendar years 1973, 1983, 1993, and 2003.

RESULTS

Age-standardized incidence rates increased significantly from 1973 to 2003 for BCC, SCC, and CMM.

LIMITATIONS

The ethnic makeup of British Columbia has changed over time, and a novel method of accounting for the effect of this on skin cancer rates is presented.

CONCLUSION

The incidence rate for skin cancers continued to rise in British Columbia, but there appears to have been a decline in the incidence of CMM and BCC in the youngest cohorts.

Variation in incidence of breast, lung and cervical cancer and malignant melanoma of skin by socioeconomic group in England

BACKGROUND

Cancer incidence varies by socioeconomic group and these variations have been linked with environmental and lifestyle factors, differences in access to health care and health seeking behaviour. Socioeconomic variations in cancer incidence by region and age are less clearly understood but they are crucial for targeting prevention measures and health care commissioning.

METHODS

Data were obtained from all eight English cancer registries for patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2003, for all invasive cases of female breast cancer (ICD-10 code C50), lung cancer (ICD-10 codes C33-C34), cervical cancer (ICD-10 code C53), and malignant melanoma of the skin (ICD-10 code C43). Socioeconomic status was assigned to each patient based on their postcode of residence at diagnosis, using the income domain of the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004. We analysed the socioeconomic variations in the incidence of breast, lung and cervical cancer and malignant melanoma of the skin for England, and regionally and by age.

RESULTS

Incidence was highest for the most deprived patients for lung cancer and cervical cancer, whilst the opposite was observed for malignant melanoma and breast cancer. The difference in incidence between the most and the least deprived groups was higher for lung cancer patients aged under 65 at diagnosis than those over 65 at diagnosis, which may indicate a cohort effect. There were regional differences in the socioeconomic gradients with the gap being widest for lung and cervical cancer in the North (North East, North West and Yorkshire and Humberside) and for malignant melanoma in the East and South West. There were only modest variations in breast cancer incidence by region. If the incidence of lung and cervical cancer were decreased to that of the least deprived group it would prevent 36% of lung cancer cases in men, 38% of lung cancer cases in women and 28% of cervical cancer cases. Incidence of breast cancer and melanoma was highest in the least deprived group, therefore if all socioeconomic groups had incidence rates similar to the least deprived group it is estimated that the number of cases would increase by 7% for breast cancer, 27% for melanoma in men and 29% for melanoma in women.

CONCLUSION

National comparison of socioeconomic variations in cancer incidence by region and age can provide an unbiased basis for public health prevention and health commissioning. Decreasing inequalities in incidence requires the integration of information on risk factors, incidence and projected incidence but targeted public health interventions could help to reduce regional inequalities in incidence and reduce the future cancer burden.

A profile of invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma in Malta: 1993–2002

BACKGROUND

The incidence of malignant melanoma of the skin has risen in every part of the world where reliable cancer registration data are found.

OBJECTIVE

Our study aims to describe the changing incidence of and survival from invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma in Malta, by analysing the data from the 211 cases that were registered at the Malta National Cancer Registry between 1993 and 2002.

RESULTS

The age standardized incidence rates for invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma rose from 3.7 per 100,000 population per year for males and 5.1 for females in the first 5-year period, to 8.0 per 100,000 population per year for males and 5.9 for females in the second 5-year period. In both sexes, numbers of thin (< or = 1.0 mm) invasive melanomas increased significantly between 1993 and 2002; males also registered a significant increase in intermediate-thickness (1.01-4.0 mm) melanomas. The increase in numbers of thin and intermediate-thickness melanomas between the two 5-year periods was greatest in patients aged 60 years and over. The overall absolute 5-year survival rate for the first period was 74% and for the second period 92%.

CONCLUSION

Numbers of reported cases of invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma in Malta have more than doubled during the 10-year study period. This is mostly due to a marked rise in the diagnosis of thin melanomas in both sexes, occurring mainly in patients aged 60 years and over. As thin melanomas are of low metastasizing potential, this has resulted in an increase in survival between the two 5-year study periods.

Slip! Slap! Slop! Cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence and social status in New Zealand, 1995-2000

Numerous studies have noted a strong social gradient in many types of ill health. In particular, people in more deprived areas tend to be less healthy than those in more affluent communities, even once the demographic and socio-economic differences of the people in those areas have been taken into account. The social gradient is evident for many types of health outcomes, including diseases such as cancer. However, this positive relationship is not evident for rates of melanoma incidence and mortality, with rates of the disease tending to decrease with measures of disadvantage. In this study, we assess the relationship between the incidence of melanoma and deprivation in New Zealand, a country with particularly high rates of the disease. In the light of greater public awareness of the risk factors associated with melanoma, through public awareness campaigns such as 'Slip! Slap! Slop' and 'No Suntan is Safe', we analyse small-area data on standardised rates of melanoma for the period 1995-2000. We found that melanoma rates increase with social status, even once other confounding factors are controlled for, but that the relationship is very small. Furthermore, the relationship between melanoma incidence and deprivation is context-dependent. Possible explanations for the relationship between melanoma and deprivation are discussed, including more frequent exposure to intermittent sunshine among less disadvantaged groups and the underreporting of melanoma incidence in the New Zealand cancer registry among individuals in lower social groups.

Cutaneous malignant melanoma in Europe

Cutaneous malignant melanoma is on the rise in fair skinned societies. Both its incidence and mortality rates have been increasing in Europe over the past decades, the latter seem to stabilise in Scandinavia. The main cause of melanoma is intermittent exposure to ultraviolet radiation, especially in combination with endogenous factors like skin type and genetic predisposition. Evidence on an association between sunbed use and melanoma is inconclusive, but seems to point to a slightly increased risk associated with sunbed use. Within Europe, considerably variation in patterns of melanoma incidence and mortality existed. In this paper, we discuss the possible explanations for the observed trends and options for primary and secondary prevention. Early detection seems the most promising way to combat the relatively poor survival rates in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Monitoring stage-specific trends in melanoma incidence across Europe reveals the need for more complete information on diagnostic characteristics

Cutaneous malignant melanoma has been characterized by rapid and steady increases in incidence and mortality in white populations. Some reports mentioned declining trends in the mean thickness of these tumours, but other studies suggested a stable incidence of thick melanomas. The aim of this study was to describe the stage distribution of melanomas across Europe, with particular reference to temporal trends. Twenty-three cancer registries provided data sets containing information on stage and histology, 21 of which were used for a general description and nine for trends analyses. Despite a preponderance of missing data, interesting patterns emerged: a less favourable stage distribution in populations with relatively low incidence, but high case-fatality rates, and a favourable trend in stage and histology distribution over time, including a shift from later to earlier stages in recent years. Early detection campaigns raising awareness for thin lesions can potentially improve melanoma survival rates. Monitoring of stage-specific trends in melanoma incidence can assess the impact of such interventions. This paper demonstrates the potential utility of high-quality, timely cancer registry data in pursuing such public health objectives and addresses the need for more complete information on diagnostic features of melanoma patients. This will allow more informative evaluations of preventive strategies.

The future incidence of cutaneous melanoma within the U.K

BACKGROUND

The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma continues to rise in the U.K., where since the 1970s malignant melanoma has seen the largest increase in incidence rates compared with other major cancers. To counteract this rise, sun awareness campaigns have been introduced in this and several other countries since the 1980s with the object of encouraging people to limit their exposure to strong sunshine and to avoid sunburn in the expectation that these interventions will act favourably on skin cancer incidence.

OBJECTIVES

To predict the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma in the British population over the next half-century as a consequence of either a stabilization or a reduction in lifetime risk of melanoma for recent and future birth cohorts so that cancer services can be planned appropriately over the coming years.

METHODS

An age-cohort model has been developed that estimates future incidence rates of melanoma in the U.K.

RESULTS

The results suggest that the benefits of intervention strategies, assuming that these will translate eventually into a downturn in melanoma incidence, may not be seen for another 30 years or so, by which time the predicted age-standardized rate of melanoma may be around twice that presently observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention of deaths from melanoma depends on both reducing incidence and achieving earlier diagnosis. This analysis has indicated that the former is unlikely to be realized in the U.K. for some decades, and so early detection of suspected lesions, with prompt surgery to remove confirmed tumours, is paramount if mortality from melanoma is to be kept in check.

Variations in registration of skin cancer in the United Kingdom

Cancer registries are used to compare incidences between regions, plan for service provision, and to assess the impact of health interventions. Significant variation in data capture for skin cancers and reporting of results was evident between regional cancer registries in the UK when assessed in 1991. Using a postal questionnaire we sought to document methods of recording skin cancer incidence in the UK in 2000, and to assess if practice has changed from 1991. All UK cancer registries were asked for details of their method of skin cancer case registration and latest available incidence figures. Methodology was assessed against recently implemented national standards. All registries responded to the survey. Sources of data were more uniform than was the case 9 years ago. All registries except one attained national standards for basal cell carcinoma data collection, but only half of the registries attained standards for squamous cell carcinoma. Ten of the 12 correctly recorded numbers of malignant melanomas, but three still failed to record the Breslow thickness or Clarke's level. Wide variation is evident in the recorded incidences for each of the malignancies, and the efficiency at which figures are made available. Thus, although there has been improvement since 1991, variability still exists between UK registries in methods of data capture, the data recorded, and efficiency of data processing in skin cancer registration.

Melanoma epidemic: True or false?

Melanoma incidence has increased dramatically over the last decades in most industrial countries, mainly as a result of the large numbers of early melanomas being diagnosed. Simultaneously, a lack of commensurate change in mortality has been reported, raising the possibility that skin melanoma may have modified its aggressiveness as a result of the increased diagnosis of biologically benign lesions. The main data and controversies arising from the melanoma epidemic are reviewed.

Reporting cutaneous melanoma to cancer registries in the United States

BACKGROUND

Central cancer registries provide data to monitor incidence rates of cutaneous melanoma.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the completeness of melanoma reporting in the United States.

METHODS

Data provided by central cancer registries were used to calculate age-adjusted, average annual incidence rates and were compared by time period (1992-1994, 1995-1997), stage, and program (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results [SEER] and National Program of Cancer Registries [NPCR]). Completeness was measured with incidence/mortality ratio.

RESULTS

Incidence rates among whites for 1995-1997 from SEER registries ranged from 11.8 to 33.9 per 100,000 population; 18 of 40 NPCR registries were within this range. For 1992-1994, 8 of 30 NPCR registries were within the range of SEER incidence rates. NPCR registry incidence rates were generally higher for 1995-1997 than 1992-1994. The percentage of cases of localized melanoma did not increase substantially in most SEER registries over the study period, but some NPCR registries had substantial increases. Among NPCR registries that had incidence rates comparable with those of SEER in 1995-1997, the incidence/mortality ratios were generally lower among NPCR registries than SEER registries.

CONCLUSION

Although melanoma incidence rates are generally increasing, part of the increases in incidence rates reported by NPCR registries over the study time period are likely due to increased case ascertainment and reporting.

How complete has skin cancer registration been in the UK? A study from Yorkshire

The completeness of skin cancer registration in the Yorkshire region was evaluated for the year 1994 by the independent case ascertainment method. Patients diagnosed with skin cancer were identified from regional pathology laboratories, inpatient and outpatient hospital departments and general practices, and were matched against records held by the Northern and Yorkshire Cancer Registry and Information Services (NYCRIS). Out of 5987 skin cancer cases identified from 14 pathology laboratories, 123 general practices, 16 NHS Trusts inpatient databases and 7 dermatology outpatient departments, 83.5% had a matching record on the Cancer Register. The proportion of registered malignant melanoma (MM) and non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) cases were 87.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 84.0-90.4) and 83.1% (95% CI 81.9-84.2) respectively. Skin cancers found in the pathology laboratories, the main notification sources of the registry, were under-ascertained by 15% (10% MM and 15% NMSC). Cases identified from general practices had a significantly lower proportion of matching registry records in comparison with other information sources. No record of histological confirmation could be found for 11% MM and 13% NMSC. Complete capture of pathology laboratory information, histological confirmation of all lesions suspected of skin cancer and routine receipt of hospital patient administration system information supplementary to that from pathology laboratories are measures that would provide the most substantial improvement to ascertainment of skin cancer data.

Skin melanoma in Saarland: incidence, survival and mortality 1970-1996

Over the past few decades, the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma has been rising in both sexes in almost all developed countries, notably those with fair-skinned populations. Detailed population-based time trend analyses of skin melanoma incidence and survival in Germany accounting for stage have not been published until now. We analysed skin melanoma data from the population-based Saarland Cancer Registry in Germany from 1970 to 1996. Incidence rates were age-standardized. We estimated 5-year disease-specific survival rates and evaluated the effects of sex, age, calendar period and staging on the prognosis in Cox's proportional hazards models. From 1970-1972 to 1994-1996, melanoma incidence increased 170% from 2.4 to 6.5 per 100 000 person-years among men and 150% from 2.4 to 6.0 per 100 000 person-years among women. Mortality rates peaked in 1988-1990. After 1988-1990, mortality rates declined among women and remained roughly constant among men. The increase in the incidence of localized melanoma and T1-T2 melanoma respectively is driving the overall incidence trend. The improvement of survival over time is most likely due to earlier detection of skin melanoma. In the 1990s, about 30% of all newly diagnosed skin melanoma had stage T3 or T4, implying that further improvement in survival by earlier detection is feasible.

Malignant melanoma in South Wales: changing trends in presentation (1986-98)

In 1990 we reported the trends in presentation of malignant melanoma (MM) from 1986 to 1988 in a defined population in South Wales. Ten years after this initial study we reassessed the incidence of invasive MM in this defined population over a similar 3 year period. Using the local skin cancer registry we identified 186 cases of MM representing a 74% increase. Age standardization to the world population gives an overall incidence of 11.8 per 100 000 population per annum. This is the highest published standard incidence of MM to date from the UK and certainly one of the highest in Europe. We also have observed a continuing trend for diagnosis of thinner lesions with a better prognosis. Information about mortality for the whole of Wales over the corresponding period is also presented.

Under-registration of melanoma in Wales in 1998: use of the capture-recapture method to estimate the 'true' incidence

Several studies have suggested that melanomas may be significantly under-recorded in cancer registries and that smaller, thinner, better prognosis lesions are the ones most likely to be missed. A systematic search of three independent sources of melanoma data in Wales for 1998 revealed a total of 406 histologically confirmed cases, of which only 194 were known to the cancer registry. Eighty-one per cent of the total cases were registered on a specialist melanoma register, compared with 48% on the cancer registry database. From the cancer registry data alone, the world age-standardized incidence rates (WASRs) were 4.3 and 5.8 per 100,000 for males and females, respectively, but these increased to 8.2 and 10.2 with the addition of histologically confirmed cases discovered from other sources. The capture-recapture method estimated the number of melanomas not ascertained by either means to be 140, resulting in a 'true' incidence of 546 cases for 1998 compared with just 194 cases from the cancer registry data alone. The 'true' WASRs are 11.2 and 13.4 per 100,000 for males and females, respectively, which are some of the highest in Europe. There was evidence to support the hypothesis that smaller, thinner melanomas are more likely to be recorded on a specialist melanoma register than on the cancer registry database.

A comparison of national cancer registry and direct follow-up in the ascertainment of ovarian cancer

The National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) and direct follow-up were used to document ovarian and fallopian tube cancers in 22000 women from 1986 to 1993. Direct follow-up identified 47/49 cases (96%) and the NHSCR 38/49 (78%). NHSCR ascertainment was incomplete and direct follow-up provided additional information. These findings have implications for interpretation of national cancer statistics and for use of the NHSCR in research trials.

Issues in the epidemiology of melanoma

Malignant melanoma imposes a considerable public health burden. Both incidence and mortality have increased many fold over the past several decades, although current trends suggest possible change in the prior patterns. Etiologic factors have been established, of which the most important is intense sun exposure. Primary prevention and early detection are both potentially critical in reducing the burden of melanoma. Much remains to be clarified in our management of this disorder on a population basis, and methodologic difficulties are plentiful. The potential for substantial reductions in melanoma mortality requires that we address the difficulties so that maximally effective public health initiatives may be undertaken.

Assessing incidence rates and secular trends in nonmelanocytic skin cancer: which method is best?

BACKGROUND

Evaluating the incidence of nonmelanocytic skin cancers in white populations and assessing the direction and strength of secular trends in these cancers have become important issues to dermatologists, oncologists, health policy analysts, and health care funders.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the three principal methods used to assess incidence rates and secular trends.

CONCLUSIONS

Each of the three methods has strengths and weaknesses. An understanding of these will enable proper assessment of the value and significance of findings presented in the literature.

Malignant melanoma: incidence issues and their effect on diagnosis and treatment in the 1990s

The incidence of melanoma is increasing at a rate faster than that for any other cancer in the United States and worldwide. Several factors show that this increase in incidence is real and not due to artifact. The rapid increase is not attributable to better overall counting of the cases of cancer (because the incidence of other cancers is decreasing). Furthermore, it is not due to changes in histologic criteria. Finally, the mortality rate from melanoma continues to increase at a time when survival rates are also increasing. This apparent paradox can be true only if the actual incidence is increasing at an even faster rate than the death rate. This dramatic increase in the incidence of melanoma highlights the need for improved methods of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment as melanoma becomes increasingly important as a public health issue.

Epidemiology of cancer in ethnic groups

Substantial differences in the level and patterns of cancer have long been known to exist. Thus, breast cancer mortality in England & Wales in 1908-1912 was ten times higher than in Japan. Today the risk differential is six-fold. The major geographical differences in cancer risk throughout the world are mentioned and the significance of study of changes in cancer risk in migrant populations is emphasised. Thus, while cancer of the large bowel is still relatively uncommon in Japan, the incidence in US Japanese is currently higher than in both US Whites and Blacks. As the Japanese have not changed their genes, it is likely that the higher levels of risk in the US are due to the environment. Within Singapore there are substantial differences in the risk of cancers of the nasopharynx and oesophagus between the various Chinese dialect groups. The information available on ethnic differences in cancer risk in the UK are reviewed. Current analyses are flawed by failure to distinguish between ethnic groups coming from the same continent. The collection of data on ethnic group at the 1991 census and the recently introduced requirement that this also be collected in hospital records will permit direct calculation of incidence and replace anecdote by fact.

The incidence of malignant melanoma in the United States: issues as we approach the 21st century

The risk of malignant melanoma developing in an American in the United States has now reached 1 in 87 (up more than 1800% since the 1930s). This rising incidence of malignant melanoma is, in fact, real because (1) it is not due to increased surveillance; (2) it is not due to better cancer-counting methods in general; (3) it is not due to changes in histologic diagnostic criteria; (4) it is being noted worldwide; and (5) most importantly, despite rising survival percentages, the mortality rate from malignant melanoma also continues to rise. On the basis of these trends, incidence rates for malignant melanoma will continue to rise for at least the next 10 to 20 years, although the demographics of those affected may change. Effective programs to improve public and professional education must be developed to enhance early clinical detection and behavioral changes. An establishment of a National Melanoma Registry is needed to more effectively assess the magnitude and impact of future incidence and the success of prevention program efforts into the next century.