Long-term survival after allogeneic haematopoietic cell transplantation for AML in remission: single-centre results after TBI-based myeloablative and non-myeloablative conditioning

Impact of Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation in First Complete Remission in Acute Myeloid Leukemia: A National Population-Based Cohort Study

To examine the outcomes of allogeneic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in first complete remission (CR1) compared with chemotherapy alone in a population-based setting, we identified a cohort of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) aged 15 to 70 years diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 in Denmark. Using the Danish National Acute Leukemia Registry, we compared relapse risk, relapse-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS) between patients with unfavorable cytogenetic features receiving postremission therapy with conventional chemotherapy only versus those undergoing HSCT in CR1. To minimize immortal time bias, we performed Cox proportional hazards regression, included date of allogeneic HSCT as a time-dependent covariate, and stratified the results by age (<60 or ≥60 years) and cytogenetic risk group. Overall, 1031 patients achieved a CR1. Of these, 196 patients (19%) underwent HSCT. HSCT was associated with a lower relapse rate (24% versus 49%) despite a similar median time to relapse (287 days versus 265 days). In all subgroups, the risk of relapse was lower and both RFS and OS were superior in recipients of HSCT (OS, adjusted mortality ratios: all patients, .54 [95% confidence interval (CI), .42-.71]; patients age <60 years, .58 [95% CI, .42-.81]; patients age ≥60 years, .42 [95% CI, .26-.69]; patients with intermediate-risk cytogenetics, .63 [95% CI, .43-.87]; patients with adverse-risk cytogenetics, .40 [95% CI, .24-.67]). In conclusion, in this population-based nationwide cohort study, HSCT was associated with improved survival in both younger and older patients and in patients with both intermediate and adverse cytogenetic risk.

Causal inference in survival analysis using pseudo-observations

Causal inference for non-censored response variables, such as binary or quantitative outcomes, is often based on either (1) direct standardization ('G-formula') or (2) inverse probability of treatment assignment weights ('propensity score'). To do causal inference in survival analysis, one needs to address right-censoring, and often, special techniques are required for that purpose. We will show how censoring can be dealt with 'once and for all' by means of so-called pseudo-observations when doing causal inference in survival analysis. The pseudo-observations can be used as a replacement of the outcomes without censoring when applying 'standard' causal inference methods, such as (1) or (2) earlier. We study this idea for estimating the average causal effect of a binary treatment on the survival probability, the restricted mean lifetime, and the cumulative incidence in a competing risks situation. The methods will be illustrated in a small simulation study and via a study of patients with acute myeloid leukemia who received either myeloablative or non-myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic hematopoetic cell transplantation. We will estimate the average causal effect of the conditioning regime on outcomes such as the 3-year overall survival probability and the 3-year risk of chronic graft-versus-host disease. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The clinical utility of FDG PET/CT among solid organ transplant recipients suspected of malignancy or infection

PURPOSE

Solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients are at high risk of developing infections and malignancies. 18F-FDG PET/CT may enable timely detection of these diseases and help to ensure early intervention. We aimed to describe the clinical utility of FDG PET/CT in consecutive, diagnostic unresolved SOT recipients transplanted from January 2004 to May 2015.

METHODS

Recipients with a post-transplant FDG PET/CT performed as part of diagnostic work-up were included. Detailed chart reviews were done to extract relevant clinical information and determine the final diagnosis related to the FDG PET/CT. Based on á priori defined criteria and the final diagnosis, results from each scan were classified as true or false, and diagnostic values determined.

RESULTS

Among the 1,814 recipients in the cohort, 145 had an FDG PET/CT performed; 122 under the indication of diagnostically unresolved symptoms with a suspicion of malignancy or infection. The remaining (N = 23) had an FDG PET/CT to follow-up on a known disease or to stage a known malignancy. The 122 recipients underwent a total of 133 FDG PET/CT scans performed for a suspected malignancy (66 %) or an infection (34 %). Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the FDG PET/CT in diagnosing these conditions were 97, 84, 87, and 96 %, respectively.

CONCLUSION

FDG PET/CT is an accurate diagnostic tool for the work-up of diagnostic unresolved SOT recipients suspected of malignancy or infection. The high sensitivity and NPV underlines the potential usefulness of PET/CT for excluding malignancy or focal infections in this often complex clinical situation.

Comparison of minimal residual disease as outcome predictor for AML patients in first complete remission undergoing myeloablative or nonmyeloablative allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation

Minimal residual disease (MRD) is associated with adverse outcome in AML after myeloablative (MA) hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We compared this association with that seen after nonmyeloablative (NMA) conditioning in 241 adults receiving NMA (n=86) or MA (n=155) HCT for AML in first remission with pre-HCT bone marrow aspirates assessed by flow cytometry. NMA patients were older and had more comorbidities and secondary leukemias. Three-year relapse estimates were 28% and 57% for MRD^neg and MRD^pos NMA patients, and 22% and 63% for MA patients. Three-year overall survival (OS) estimates were 48% and 41% for MRD^neg and MRD^pos NMA patients and 76% and 25% for MA patients. This similar OS after NMA conditioning was largely accounted for by higher non-relapse mortality (NRM) in MRD^neg (30%) compared to MRD^pos (10%) patients, whereas the reverse was found for MRD^neg (7%) and MRD^pos (23%) MA patients. A statistically significant difference between MA and NMA patients in the association of MRD with OS (P<0.001) and NRM (P=0.002) but not relapse (P=0.17) was confirmed. After adjustment, the risk of relapse was 4.51-times (P<0.001) higher for MRD^pos patients. These data indicate that the negative impact of MRD on relapse risk is similar after NMA and MA conditioning.