Group-Based Trajectory Modeling of Healthcare Financial Charges in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Comprehensive Phenotype

Trajectory analysis of rhinitis in a birth cohort from lower-income New York City neighborhoods

BACKGROUND

Rhinitis is a prevalent, chronic nasal condition associated with asthma. However, its developmental trajectories remain poorly characterized.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to describe the course of rhinitis from infancy to adolescence and the association between identified phenotypes, asthma-related symptoms, and physician-diagnosed asthma.

METHODS

We collected rhinitis data from questionnaires repeated across 22 time points among 688 children from infancy to age 11 years and used latent class mixed modeling (LCMM) to identify phenotypes. Once children were between ages 5 and 12, a study physician determined asthma diagnosis. We collected information on the following asthma symptoms: any wheeze, exercise-induced wheeze, nighttime coughing, and emergency department visits. For each, we used LCMM to identify symptom phenotypes. Using logistic regression, we described the association between rhinitis phenotype and asthma diagnosis and each symptom overall and stratified by atopic predisposition and sex.

RESULTS

LCMM identified 5 rhinitis trajectory groups: never/infrequent; transient; late onset, infrequent; late onset, frequent; and persistent. LCMM identified 2 trajectories for each symptom, classified as frequent and never/infrequent. Participants with persistent and late onset, frequent phenotypes were more likely to be diagnosed with asthma and to have the frequent phenotype for all symptoms (P < .01). We identified interaction between seroatopy and rhinitis phenotype for physician-diagnosed asthma (P = .04) and exercise-induced wheeze (P = .08). Severe seroatopy was more common among children with late onset, frequent and persistent rhinitis, with nearly 25% of these 2 groups exhibiting sensitivity to 4 or 5 of the 5 allergens tested.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective, population-based birth cohort, persistent and late onset, frequent rhinitis phenotypes were associated with increased risk of asthma diagnosis and symptoms during adolescence.

Empirical sample-specific approaches to define HPV16 and HPV18 seropositivity in unvaccinated, young, sexually active women

Given low seroconversion rates following human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, fixed external cutoffs may lead to errors in estimating HPV seroprevalence. We evaluated finite mixture modeling (FMM) and group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) among unvaccinated, sexually active, HPV-exposed women to determine study-specific HPV16 and HPV18 seropositivity thresholds. We included 399 women (aged 18-24 years) enrolled in the HPV Infection and Transmission Among Couples Through Heterosexual Activity (HITCH) cohort study between 2005 and 2011 in Montreal, Canada. Participants' blood samples from up to six visits spanning 2 years were tested by multiplex serology for antibodies [median fluorescence intensity (MFI)] specific to bacterially expressed HPV16 and HPV18 L1 glutathione S-transferase fusion proteins. We applied FMM and GBTM to baseline and longitudinal antibody titer measurements, respectively, to define HPV type-specific seronegative and seropositive distributions. Study-specific thresholds were generated as five standard deviations above the mean seronegative antibody titers, mimicking cutoffs (HPV16: 422 MFI; HPV18: 394 MFI) derived from an external population of sexually inactive, HPV DNA-negative Korean women (aged 15-29 years). Agreement (kappa) of study-specific thresholds was evaluated against external cutoffs. Seroprevalence estimates using FMM (HPV16: 27.5%-43.2%; HPV18: 21.7%-49.5%) and GBTM (HPV16: 11.8%-11.8%; HPV18: 9.9%-13.4%) thresholds exceeded those of external cutoffs (HPV: 10.2%; HPV18: 9.7%). FMM thresholds showed slight-to-moderate agreement with external cutoffs (HPV16: 0.26%-0.46%; HPV18: 0.20%-0.56%), while GBTM thresholds exhibited high agreement (HPV16: 0.92%-0.92%; HPV18: 0.82%-0.99%). Kappa values suggest that GBTM, used for longitudinal serological data, and otherwise FMM, for cross-sectional data, are robust methods for determining the HPV serostatus without prior classification rules.IMPORTANCEWhile human papillomavirus (HPV) seropositivity has been employed as an epidemiologic determinant of the natural history of genital HPV infections, only a fraction of women incidentally infected with HPV respond by developing significant antibody levels. HPV seropositivity is often determined by a dichotomous fixed cutoff based on the seroreactivity of an external population of women presumed as seronegative, given the lack of evidence of HPV exposure. However, considering the variable nature of seroreactivity upon HPV infection, which arguably varies across populations, such externally defined cutoffs may lack specificity to the population of interest, causing inappropriate assessment of HPV seroprevalence and related epidemiologic uses of that information. This study demonstrates that finite mixture modeling (FMM) and group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) can be used to independently estimate seroprevalence or serve as the basis for defining study-specific seropositivity thresholds without requiring prior subjective assumptions, consequently providing a more apt internally valid discrimination of seropositive from seronegative individuals.

Treatment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease with Biologics in Japan: A Single-Center, Retrospective Pharmacoeconomic Study

Biologics are essential for treating inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); however, only a few studies have validated cost-effective treatment options and patient factors for biologic use using real-world data from Japanese patients with IBD. Here, we aimed to provide pharmacoeconomic evidence to support clinical decisions for IBD treatment using biologics. We assessed 183 cases (127 patients) of IBD treated with biologics between November 2004 and September 2021. Data on patient background, treatment other than biologics, treatment-related medical costs, and effectiveness index (ratio of the C-reactive protein-negative period to drug survival time) were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Drug survival was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis. The outcomes were to validate a novel assessment index and elucidate the following aspects using this index: the effectiveness-cost relationship of long-term biologic use in IBD and cost-effectiveness-associated patient factors. Body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 and duration of hypoalbuminemia during drug survival correlated significantly with the therapeutic effectiveness of biologics. There were no significant differences in surgical, granulocyte apheresis, or adverse-event costs per drug survival time. Biologic costs were significantly higher in the group showing lower effectiveness than in the group showing higher effectiveness. These findings hold major pharmacoeconomic implications for not only improving therapeutic outcomes through the amelioration of low albumin levels and obesity but also potentially reducing healthcare expenditure related to the use of biotherapeutics. To our knowledge, this is the first pharmacoeconomic study based on real-world data from Japanese patients with IBD receiving long-term biologic therapy.

A Narrative Review of Financial Burden, Distress, and Toxicity of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases in the United States

INTRODUCTION

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) affect >3 million Americans and are associated with tremendous economic burden. Direct patient-level financial impacts, financial distress, and financial toxicity are less well understood. We aimed to summarize the literature on patient-level financial burden, distress, and toxicity associated with IBD in the United States.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search of US studies from 2002 to 2022 focused on direct/indirect costs, financial distress, and toxicity for patients with IBD. We abstracted study objectives, design, population characteristics, setting, and results.

RESULTS

Of 2,586 abstracts screened, 18 articles were included. The studies comprised 638,664 patients with IBD from ages 9 to 93 years. Estimates for direct annual costs incurred by patients ranged from $7,824 to $41,829. Outpatient costs ranged from 19% to 45% of direct costs, inpatient costs ranged from 27% to 36%, and pharmacy costs ranged from 7% to 51% of costs. Crohn's disease was associated with higher costs than ulcerative colitis. Estimates for indirect costs varied widely; presenteeism accounted for most indirect costs. Severe and active disease was associated with greater direct and indirect costs. Financial distress was highly prevalent; associated factors included lower education level, lower household income, public insurance, comorbid illnesses, severity of IBD, and food insecurity. Higher degrees of financial distress were associated with greater delays in medical care, cost-related medication nonadherence, and lower health-related quality of life.

DISCUSSION

Financial distress is prevalent among patients with IBD; financial toxicity is not well characterized. Definitions and measures varied widely. Better quantification of patient-level costs and associated impacts is needed to determine avenues for intervention.

The Pediatric Crohn Disease Morbidity Index (PCD-MI): Development of a Tool to Assess Long-Term Disease Burden Using a Data-Driven Approach

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Heterogeneity and chronicity of Crohn disease (CD) make prediction of outcomes difficult. To date, no longitudinal measure can quantify burden over a patient's disease course, preventing assessment and integration into predictive modeling. Here, we aimed to demonstrate the feasibility of constructing a data driven, longitudinal disease burden score.

METHODS

Literature was reviewed for tools used in assessment of CD activity. Themes were identified to construct a pediatric CD morbidity index (PCD-MI). Scores were assigned to variables. Data were extracted automatically from the electronic patient records at Southampton Children's Hospital, diagnosed from 2012 to 2019 (inclusive). PCD-MI scores were calculated, adjusted for duration of follow up and assessed for variation (ANOVA) and distribution (Kolmogorov-Smirnov).

RESULTS

Nineteen clinical/biological features across five themes were included in the PCD-MI including blood/fecal/radiological/endoscopic results, medication usage, surgery, growth parameters, and extraintestinal manifestations. Maximal score was 100 after accounting for follow-up duration. PCD-MI was assessed in 66 patients, mean age 12.5 years. Following quality filtering, 9528 blood/fecal test results and 1309 growth measures were included. Mean PCD-MI score was 14.95 (range 2.2-32.5); data were normally distributed ( P = 0.2) with 25% of patients having a PCD-MI < 10. There was no difference in the mean PCD-MI when split by year of diagnosis, F -statistic 1.625, P = 0.147.

CONCLUSIONS

PCD-MI is a calculatable measure for a cohort of patients diagnosed over an 8-year period, integrating a wide-range of data with potential to determine high or low disease burden. Future iterations of the PCD-MI require refinement of included features, optimized scores, and validation on external cohorts.

Patient-level payment patterns prior to single level lumbar decompression are associated with resource utilization, postoperative payments, and adverse events

BACKGROUND

Understanding patient-specific trends in costs and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) surrounding lumbar spine surgery is critically needed to better inform surgical decision making and the development of targeted interventions.

PURPOSE

1) Identify subgroups of patients following distinct patterns in direct healthcare payments pre- and postoperatively, 2) determine whether these patterns are associated with patient and surgical factors, and 3) examine whether preoperative payment patterns are related to postoperative payments, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU), and adverse events.

STUDY DESIGN/SETTING

Retrospective analysis of an administrative claims database (IBM Marketscan Research Databases 2007-2015).

PATIENT SAMPLE

Adults undergoing primary single-level decompression surgery for lumbar stenosis (n=12,394).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Direct healthcare payments, HCRU payments (15 categories), 90-day complications and all-cause readmission, 2-year reoperation METHODS: Group-based trajectory modeling is an application of finite mixture modeling that is able to identify meaningful subgroups within a population that follow distinct developmental trajectories over time. We used this technique to identify subgroups of patients following distinct profiles in preoperative direct healthcare payments. A separate analysis was performed to identify distinct profiles in payments postoperatively. Patient and surgical factors associated with these payment profiles were assessed with multinomial logistic regression, and associations with adverse events were assessed with risk-adjusted multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

We identified 4 preoperative patient payment subgroups following distinct profiles in payments: Pre-Low (5.8% of patients), Pre-Early-Rising (4.8%), Pre-Medium (26.1%), and Pre-High (63.3%). Postoperatively, 3 patient subgroups were identified: Post-Low (8.9%), Post-Medium (29.6%), and Post-High (61.4%). Patients following the higher-cost pre- and postoperative payment profiles were older, more likely female, and had a greater physical and mental comorbidity burden. With each successively higher preoperative payment profile, patients were increasingly likely to have high postoperative payments, use more HCRU (particularly high-cost services such as inpatient admissions, ER, and SNF/IRF care), and experience postoperative adverse events. Following risk adjustment for patient and surgical factors, patients following the Pre-High payment profile had 209.5 (95% CI: 144.2, 309.7; p<.001) fold greater odds for following the Post-High payment profile, 1.8 (1.3, 2.5; p=.003) fold greater odds for 90-day complications, and 1.7 (1.2, 2.6; p=.035) fold greater odds for 2-year reoperation relative to patients following the Pre-Low payment profile.

CONCLUSIONS

There are identifiable subgroups of patients who follow distinct profiles in direct healthcare payments surrounding lumbar decompression surgery. These payment profiles are related to patient age, sex, and physical and mental comorbidities. Notably, preoperative payment profiles may provide prognostic value, as they are associated with postoperative costs, HCRU, and adverse events.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Trajectories of Lymphocyte Counts in the Early Phase of Acute Pancreatitis Are Associated With Infected Pancreatic Necrosis

INTRODUCTION

Infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is an important complication of acute pancreatitis (AP). Absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) was reported to be associated with immunosuppression and the development of IPN. The aim of this study was to describe the trajectory of ALC during the early phase of AP and assess its association with IPN.

METHODS

We retrospectively screened patients with AP admitted to our center between January 2016 and July 2019. The ALC levels for the first 7 days after admission were collected. Group-based trajectory modeling was performed to detect the trajectories. Cox proportional hazards regression model was adopted to identify potential risk factors of IPN.

RESULTS

Overall, 292 patients were enrolled for analysis. A triple-group trajectory model was developed, assigning 116 patients to the low-level ALC group, 133 to the medium-level ALC group, and 43 to the high-level ALC group. There was no overall significant difference regarding the incidence of IPN among the 3 groups (P = 0.066). In pairwise comparison, patients in the low-level ALC group had significantly higher incidence of IPN than those in the high-level ALC group (hazard ratio: 3.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-10.00, P = 0.020). Length of hospital stay and intensive care unit stay differed significantly among patients with different trajectories (P = 0.042 and 0.033, respectively).

DISCUSSION

Despite the fact that the trajectories of ALC is overall insignificant for the development of IPN, patients with persistent low ALC trajectories during the early phase of AP are more likely to develop IPN when compared with patients with high ALC trajectories.

Clinical Characteristics of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients Requiring Long-Term Parenteral Support in the Present Era of Highly Effective Biologic Therapy

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in the medical management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a subset of patients may require extensive surgery, leading to short-bowel syndrome/intestinal failure requiring long-term home parenteral nutrition (PN) or customized intravenous fluid (IVF) support. Our aim was to further define the characteristics of IBD patients requiring home PN/IVF.

METHODS

This is an observational study from a prospective IBD research registry. Patients receiving long-term home PN/IVF support during 2009-2015 were identified and compared with remaining IBD patients. Demographics, surgical history, smoking, narcotic use, IBD treatment, healthcare charges, and presence of biomarkers were reviewed. The IBD-PN group was stratified into 3 groups based on median healthcare charges.

RESULTS

Of 2359 IBD patients, there were 25 (1%, 24 with Crohn's disease) who required home PN/IVF, and 250 randomly selected IBD patients matched for disease type formed the control population. Median duration of PN use was 27 months (interquartile range, 11-66). PN use was significantly associated with smoking, narcotic use, IBD-related operations, and lower quality-of-life scores. Among IBD-PN patients, 7 of 25 (28%, 3 after use of teduglutide) were able to successfully discontinue this modality. Median healthcare charges in the IBD-PN group were $51,456 annually. Median charges in the controls were $3427. Period prevalence mortality was 11.5% in IBD-PN and 3.8% in controls.

CONCLUSIONS

IBD patients requiring long-term home PN/IVF support are a small minority in the present era of immunomodulator/biologic therapy. These refractory patients have a 15-fold increase in annual median healthcare charges compared with control IBD patients.

Predictors of High Health Care Utilization in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease Within 1 Year of Establishing Specialist Care

BACKGROUND

A small proportion of patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) consume a disproportionate amount of health care resources, with most of these spent on unplanned care in emergency room (ER) and hospital visits. Interventions in those at high risk in the outpatient setting could reduce the need for future inpatient care. We sought to describe the characteristics predictive of high health care utilization within 1 year after an initial IBD clinic encounter.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of new IBD patients seen at the outpatient clinics of 2 tertiary IBD centers in the United States. Baseline sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were collected, and the number of IBD-related ER and hospital visits were recorded over the 1-year period after the initial clinic encounter. Patients with ≥2 visits (high utilizers) were compared with those with no visits.

RESULTS

Of the 735 patients included in the final analysis, 106 (14.4%) were high utilizers, and they had a mean of 2.9 visits (maximum = 10) in the 1 year after their initial encounter. In multivariate analysis, insurance coverage through medical assistance (odds ratio [OR] 3.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-9.20), steroid use (OR 1.83; 95% CI, 1.11-3.04), short inflammatory bowel disease questionnaire score <50 (OR 2.29; 95% CI, 1.23-4.27), and current ostomy (OR 4.82; 95% CI, 1.51-15.37) were independently associated with high utilization.

CONCLUSIONS

Multidisciplinary care and resources should be preferentially channeled towards new clinic patients with severe disease and on medical assistance, as this could reduce future inpatient visits and result in cost savings.

Variability of cost trajectories over the last year of life in patients with advanced breast cancer in the Netherlands

Objective

In breast cancer patients, treatment at the end of life accounts for a major share of medical spending. However, little is known about the variability of cost trajectories between patients. This study aims to identify underlying latent groups of advanced breast cancer patients with similar cost trajectories over the last year before death.

Methods

Data from deceased advanced breast cancer patients, diagnosed between 2010 and 2017, were retrieved from the Southeast Netherlands Advanced Breast Cancer (SONABRE) Registry. Costs of hospital care over the last twelve months before death were analyzed, and the variability of longitudinal patterns between patients were explored using group-based trajectory modeling. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were applied to investigate differences between the identified latent groups.

Results

We included 558 patients. Over the last twelve months before death, mean hospital costs were €2,255 (SD = €492) per month. Costs increased over the last five months and reached a maximum of €3,614 in the last month of life, driven by hospital admissions, while spending for medication declined over the last three months of life. Based on patients’ individual cost trajectories, we identified six latent groups with distinct longitudinal patterns, of which only two showed a marked increase in costs over the last twelve months before death. Latent groups were constituted of heterogeneous patients, and clinical characteristics explained membership only to a limited extent.

Conclusions

The average costs of advanced breast cancer patients increased towards the end of life. However, we uncovered several latent groups of patients with divergent cost trajectories, which did not reflect the overall increasing trend. The mechanisms underlying the variability in cost trajectories warrants further research.

The Inflammatory Bowel Disease Medical Home: From Patients to Populations

With increasing emphasis on cost reduction and quality improvement, the transition to value-based care is underway. New models of health care delivery are being explored to optimize patient experience and outcomes while decreasing health care expenses. One such model is the specialty medical home (SMH), which provides multidisciplinary, high-quality care for chronic diseases with specialist involvement, such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This review aims to explore the rationale behind initial construction, the critical personnel and components, the early outcomes of established models, comparison with other value-based care models, and the role of an IBD SMH in population health management.

The Association Between Sustained Poor Quality of Life and Future Opioid Use in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is associated with poor quality of life and disability. The short inflammatory bowel disease questionnaire (SIBDQ) is validated to determine patients quality of life at single time points, or improvement over time. Few studies have evaluated if sustained poor quality of life is associated with future healthcare utilization patterns.

METHODS

We analyzed patients from a prospective IBD natural history registry with 4 consecutive years of follow-up. SIBDQ was measured at outpatient visits. Healthcare utilization data were temporally organized into a 2-year observation period, and 2-year follow-up period. Mean SIBDQ score <50 during the first 2 years was categorized as having "poor quality of life". Primary outcomes of interest were measures of unplanned healthcare utilization and opioid use.

RESULTS

From a total of 447 participants (56.1% female, 66.1% Crohn's disease, 34.9% ulcerative colitis), 215 (48.1%) were classified as having poor quality of life. Poor quality of life was significantly associated with Crohn's disease (P < 0.01), history of IBD related surgery, and tobacco use (all P < 0.01). In the follow-up period, the same patients with poor quality of life were more likely to have abnormal biomarkers of inflammation, more telephone calls and office visits, experience unplanned care, and be exposed to opiates (all P < 0.05). After multivariable analysis, poor quality of life remained an independent predictor of future opiate use (odds ratio: 2.2, P = 0.003) and decreased time to first opiate prescription (hazard ratio: 1.67, P = 0.019) in the follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

IBD patients with sustained poor quality of life are at an increased risk of opiate use and decreased time to opiate exposure. Routine measurement of quality of life in the outpatient setting may provide insight into those at risk for narcotic use and healthcare utilization. 10.1093/ibd/izy040_video1izy040.video25791709872001.

The Cost of Crohn's Disease: Varied Health Care Expenditure Patterns Across Distinct Disease Trajectories

BACKGROUND

Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) encompass a heterogeneous disease spectrum, with variable health care utilization and expenditure patterns. Lémann Index (LI) is a metric that quantifies cumulative bowel damage and has shown utility in delineating distinct disease phenotypes. We aimed to characterize the financial burden from all medical care in CD cohort in relation to the variations in LI-based disease phenotypes.

METHODS

CD patients with 5-year (y) follow-up from a prospective registry were included. LI was calculated from first (LI1) and last (LI2) clinical encounters. Change in score (LI2-LI1) or Delta LI (DLI) was used for association analysis with health care expenditures.

RESULTS

A total of 243 patients with CD formed the study population (median age, 44 years; 58% women; median disease duration 12 years). DLI was used to define disease trajectories: DLI <0 (indicating improving bowel damage); DLI = 0 (stable); DLI >0 (worsening); which comprised 15.6%, 30.9%, and 53.5% of the cohort, respectively. Patients with DLI >0 had significantly higher CD-related surgeries, health care utilization, medication (steroids and biologics) use as well as higher median 5 years total and stratified charges compared with the other groups. Total 5-year expenditure was $56 million; 67% of which was related to hospitalization. Total expense showed independent positive correlation with LI2 (P = 0.001) and DLI (P = 0.001), and negative correlation with age (P = 0.029) and 5-year quality of life score (P = 0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

The financial burden of CD is significantly associated with worsening bowel damage. Further research should focus on the prediction and management of the costliest/sickest patients with CD.