AI's potential to accelerate drug discovery needs a reality check

Can Machine Learning Overcome the 95% Failure Rate and Reality that Only 30% of Approved Cancer Drugs Meaningfully Extend Patient Survival?

Despite implementing hundreds of strategies, cancer drug development suffers from a 95% failure rate over 30 years, with only 30% of approved cancer drugs extending patient survival beyond 2.5 months. Adding more criteria without eliminating nonessential ones is impractical and may fall into the "survivorship bias" trap. Machine learning (ML) models may enhance efficiency by saving time and cost. Yet, they may not improve success rate without identifying the root causes of failure. We propose a "STAR-guided ML system" (structure-tissue/cell selectivity-activity relationship) to enhance success rate and efficiency by addressing three overlooked interdependent factors: potency/specificity to the on/off-targets determining efficacy in tumors at clinical doses, on/off-target-driven tissue/cell selectivity influencing adverse effects in the normal organs at clinical doses, and optimal clinical doses balancing efficacy/safety as determined by potency/specificity and tissue/cell selectivity. STAR-guided ML models can directly predict clinical dose/efficacy/safety from five features to design/select the best drugs, enhancing success and efficiency of cancer drug development.

Protein Structure Inspired Discovery of a Novel Inducer of Anoikis in Human Melanoma

Drug discovery historically starts with an established function, either that of compounds or proteins. This can hamper discovery of novel therapeutics. As structure determines function, we hypothesized that unique 3D protein structures constitute primary data that can inform novel discovery. Using a computationally intensive physics-based analytical platform operating at supercomputing speeds, we probed a high-resolution protein X-ray crystallographic library developed by us. For each of the eight identified novel 3D structures, we analyzed binding of sixty million compounds. Top-ranking compounds were acquired and screened for efficacy against breast, prostate, colon, or lung cancer, and for toxicity on normal human bone marrow stem cells, both using eight-day colony formation assays. Effective and non-toxic compounds segregated to two pockets. One compound, Dxr2-017, exhibited selective anti-melanoma activity in the NCI-60 cell line screen. In eight-day assays, Dxr2-017 had an IC50 of 12 nM against melanoma cells, while concentrations over 2100-fold higher had minimal stem cell toxicity. Dxr2-017 induced anoikis, a unique form of programmed cell death in need of targeted therapeutics. Our findings demonstrate proof-of-concept that protein structures represent high-value primary data to support the discovery of novel acting therapeutics. This approach is widely applicable.

Future AI Will Most Likely Predict Antibody-Drug Conjugate Response in Oncology: A Review and Expert Opinion

The medical research field has been tremendously galvanized to improve the prediction of therapy efficacy by the revolution in artificial intelligence (AI). An earnest desire to find better ways to predict the effectiveness of therapy with the use of AI has propelled the evolution of new models in which it can become more applicable in clinical settings such as breast cancer detection. However, in some instances, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration was obliged to back some previously approved inaccurate models for AI-based prognostic models because they eventually produce inaccurate prognoses for specific patients who might be at risk of heart failure. In light of instances in which the medical research community has often evolved some unrealistic expectations regarding the advances in AI and its potential use for medical purposes, implementing standard procedures for AI-based cancer models is critical. Specifically, models would have to meet some general parameters for standardization, transparency of their logistic modules, and avoidance of algorithm biases. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge about AI-based prognostic methods and describe how they may be used in the future for predicting antibody-drug conjugate efficacy in cancer patients. We also summarize the findings of recent late-phase clinical trials using these conjugates for cancer therapy.

Self-Driving Laboratories for Chemistry and Materials Science

Self-driving laboratories (SDLs) promise an accelerated application of the scientific method. Through the automation of experimental workflows, along with autonomous experimental planning, SDLs hold the potential to greatly accelerate research in chemistry and materials discovery. This review provides an in-depth analysis of the state-of-the-art in SDL technology, its applications across various scientific disciplines, and the potential implications for research and industry. This review additionally provides an overview of the enabling technologies for SDLs, including their hardware, software, and integration with laboratory infrastructure. Most importantly, this review explores the diverse range of scientific domains where SDLs have made significant contributions, from drug discovery and materials science to genomics and chemistry. We provide a comprehensive review of existing real-world examples of SDLs, their different levels of automation, and the challenges and limitations associated with each domain.

A guide to artificial intelligence for cancer researchers

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been commoditized. It has evolved from a specialty resource to a readily accessible tool for cancer researchers. AI-based tools can boost research productivity in daily workflows, but can also extract hidden information from existing data, thereby enabling new scientific discoveries. Building a basic literacy in these tools is useful for every cancer researcher. Researchers with a traditional biological science focus can use AI-based tools through off-the-shelf software, whereas those who are more computationally inclined can develop their own AI-based software pipelines. In this article, we provide a practical guide for non-computational cancer researchers to understand how AI-based tools can benefit them. We convey general principles of AI for applications in image analysis, natural language processing and drug discovery. In addition, we give examples of how non-computational researchers can get started on the journey to productively use AI in their own work.

How successful are AI-discovered drugs in clinical trials? A first analysis and emerging lessons

AI techniques are making inroads into the field of drug discovery. As a result, a growing number of drugs and vaccines have been discovered using AI. However, questions remain about the success of these molecules in clinical trials. To address these questions, we conducted a first analysis of the clinical pipelines of AI-native Biotech companies. In Phase I we find AI-discovered molecules have an 80-90% success rate, substantially higher than historic industry averages. This suggests, we argue, that AI is highly capable of designing or identifying molecules with drug-like properties. In Phase II the success rate is ∼40%, albeit on a limited sample size, comparable to historic industry averages. Our findings highlight early signs of the clinical potential of AI-discovered molecules.

The advancement of artificial intelligence in biomedical research and health innovation: challenges and opportunities in emerging economies

The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI), algorithm optimization and high-throughput experiments has enabled scientists to accelerate the discovery of new chemicals and materials with unprecedented efficiency, resilience and precision. Over the recent years, the so-called autonomous experimentation (AE) systems are featured as key AI innovation to enhance and accelerate research and development (R&D). Also known as self-driving laboratories or materials acceleration platforms, AE systems are digital platforms capable of running a large number of experiments autonomously. Those systems are rapidly impacting biomedical research and clinical innovation, in areas such as drug discovery, nanomedicine, precision oncology, and others. As it is expected that AE will impact healthcare innovation from local to global levels, its implications for science and technology in emerging economies should be examined. By examining the increasing relevance of AE in contemporary R&D activities, this article aims to explore the advancement of artificial intelligence in biomedical research and health innovation, highlighting its implications, challenges and opportunities in emerging economies. AE presents an opportunity for stakeholders from emerging economies to co-produce the global knowledge landscape of AI in health. However, asymmetries in R&D capabilities should be acknowledged since emerging economies suffers from inadequacies and discontinuities in resources and funding. The establishment of decentralized AE infrastructures could support stakeholders to overcome local restrictions and opens venues for more culturally diverse, equitable, and trustworthy development of AI in health-related R&D through meaningful partnerships and engagement. Collaborations with innovators from emerging economies could facilitate anticipation of fiscal pressures in science and technology policies, obsolescence of knowledge infrastructures, ethical and regulatory policy lag, and other issues present in the Global South. Also, improving cultural and geographical representativeness of AE contributes to foster the diffusion and acceptance of AI in health-related R&D worldwide. Institutional preparedness is critical and could enable stakeholders to navigate opportunities of AI in biomedical research and health innovation in the coming years.

Protein Structure Inspired Drug Discovery

Drug discovery starts with known function, either of a compound or a protein, in-turn prompting investigations to probe 3D structure of the compound-protein interface. As protein structure determines function, we hypothesized that unique 3D structural motifs represent primary information denoting unique function that can drive discovery of novel agents. Using a physics-based protein structure analysis platform developed by us, designed to conduct computationally intensive analysis at supercomputing speeds, we probed a high-resolution protein x-ray crystallographic library developed by us. We selected 3D structural motifs whose function was not otherwise established, that offered environments supporting binding of drug-like chemicals and were present on proteins that were not established therapeutic targets. For each of eight potential binding pockets on six different proteins we accessed a 60 million compound library and used our analysis platform to evaluate binding. Using eight-day colony formation assays acquired compounds were screened for efficacy against human breast, prostate, colon and lung cancer cells and toxicity against human bone marrow stem cells. Compounds selectively inhibiting cancer growth segregated to two pockets on separate proteins. The compound, Dxr2-017, exhibited selective activity against human melanoma cells in the NCI-60 cell line screen, had an IC50 of 19 nM against human melanoma M14 cells in our eight-day assay, while over 2100-fold higher concentrations inhibited stem cells by less than 30%. We show that Dxr2-017 induces anoikis, a unique form of programmed cell death in need of targeted therapeutics. The predicted target protein for Dxr2-017 is expressed in bacteria, not in humans. This supports our strategy of focusing on unique 3D structural motifs. It is known that functionally important 3D structures are evolutionarily conserved. Here we demonstrate proof-of-concept that protein structure represents high value primary data to support discovery of novel therapeutics. This approach is widely applicable.

Artificial intelligence for drug discovery and development in Alzheimer's disease

The complex molecular mechanism and pathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD) limits the development of effective therapeutics or prevention strategies. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-guided drug discovery combined with genetics/multi-omics (genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics) analysis contributes to the understanding of the pathophysiology and precision medicine of the disease, including AD and AD-related dementia. In this review, we summarize the AI-driven methodologies for AD-agnostic drug discovery and development, including de novo drug design, virtual screening, and prediction of drug-target interactions, all of which have shown potentials. In particular, AI-based drug repurposing emerges as a compelling strategy to identify new indications for existing drugs for AD. We provide several emerging AD targets from human genetics and multi-omics findings and highlight recent AI-based technologies and their applications in drug discovery using AD as a prototypical example. In closing, we discuss future challenges and directions in AI-based drug discovery for AD and other neurodegenerative diseases.