Density-regulated population dynamics and conditional dispersal alter the fate of mutations occurring at the front of an expanding population

Breeding dynamics of overabundant koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations subject to fertility-control management

Abstract ContextThe koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) sometimes occurs as an overabundant folivore in south-eastern Australia, where high-density populations have caused defoliation of preferred food trees, threatening habitat. Kangaroo Island, South Australia and Budj Bim National Park, Victoria, are two regions where such eruptive population dynamics have arisen. One way of mitigating their damage is through management via fertility control. AimsThis paper examines the outcomes of fertility control (surgical sterilisation and treatment with levonorgestrel implants) on breeding dynamics at the population level, using data obtained from two separate koala management programs conducted by State Government wildlife agencies, South Australia Department for Environment and Water and Parks Victoria. MethodsThe relationships between female body condition, reproductive status, fertility control, age and population density were examined using linear mixed effects models. Population density (koalas/ha) was estimated using annual census data and modelled in a Bayesian framework. Key resultsBody condition was a key influence on breeding success in female koalas, with sexual maturity being defined by both age and body condition, whereas the effect of reproductive experience was minimal. It is likely that reduced densities have led to decreased intraspecific competition for food resources and territory, leading to increased breeding success at one management site (BBNP) and by allowing females to begin breeding at a lower overall body condition. The reduction in densities to sustainable levels at both management sites, despite differing fertility-control methods, supports the use of the less invasive and more cost-effective levonorgestrel implants as the preferred fertility-control method. ConclusionsIn addition to contraceptive effects, broad-scale fertility control may have resulted in a compensatory higher breeding success in the untreated population, possibly in response to decreasing densities, increased resource availability or behavioural responses to population management. ImplicationsAlthough compensatory breeding mechanisms can reduce the effectiveness of fertility control at the population level, ongoing fertility-control management can still be successful at reducing overabundant koala populations to sustainable levels with significant long-term commitment, provided that annual control targets are continuously met.

The rate of beneficial mutations surfing on the wave of a range expansion

Many theoretical and experimental studies suggest that range expansions can have severe consequences for the gene pool of the expanding population. Due to strongly enhanced genetic drift at the advancing frontier, neutral and weakly deleterious mutations can reach large frequencies in the newly colonized regions, as if they were surfing the front of the range expansion. These findings raise the question of how frequently beneficial mutations successfully surf at shifting range margins, thereby promoting adaptation towards a range-expansion phenotype. Here, we use individual-based simulations to study the surfing statistics of recurrent beneficial mutations on wave-like range expansions in linear habitats. We show that the rate of surfing depends on two strongly antagonistic factors, the probability of surfing given the spatial location of a novel mutation and the rate of occurrence of mutations at that location. The surfing probability strongly increases towards the tip of the wave. Novel mutations are unlikely to surf unless they enjoy a spatial head start compared to the bulk of the population. The needed head start is shown to be proportional to the inverse fitness of the mutant type, and only weakly dependent on the carrying capacity. The precise location dependence of surfing probabilities is derived from the non-extinction probability of a branching process within a moving field of growth rates. The second factor is the mutation occurrence which strongly decreases towards the tip of the wave. Thus, most successful mutations arise at an intermediate position in the front of the wave. We present an analytic theory for the tradeoff between these factors that allows to predict how frequently substitutions by beneficial mutations occur at invasion fronts. We find that small amounts of genetic drift increase the fixation rate of beneficial mutations at the advancing front, and thus could be important for adaptation during species invasions.

When a life form expands its range, the individuals close to the expanding front are more likely to dominate the gene pool of the newly colonized territory. This leads to the sweeping of pioneer genes across the newly colonized, a process which has been named gene surfing. We investigate how this effect interferes with natural selection by evaluating the probability that an advantageous mutant, appearing close to the edge of an advancing population wave, is eventually able to dominate the population range expansion. By numerical simulations and heuristic analysis, we find that the surfing of even strongly beneficial mutations requires that they are introduced with a certain spatial head start compared to the bulk of the population. However, as one moves ahead of the wave, one finds fewer and fewer individuals which can possibly mutate. As a consequence, successful mutations are most likely to arise at an intermediate position in front of the wave. For small selective advantage, the success probability is enhanced by an even smaller amount of genetic drift. This effect could be important in aiding adaptation to local conditions in a range-expansion process.

The relevance of conditional dispersal for bacterial colony growth and biodegradation

Bacterial degradation is an ecosystem service that offers a promising method for the remediation of contaminated soils. To assess the dynamics and efficiency of bacterial degradation, reliable microbial simulation models, along with the relevant processes, are required. We present an approach aimed at improving reliability by studying the relevance and implications of an important concept from theoretical ecology in the context of a bacterial system: conditional dispersal denoting that the dispersal strategy depends on environmental conditions. Different dispersal strategies, which either incorporate or neglect this concept, are implemented in a bacterial model and results are compared to data obtained from laboratory experiments with Pseudomonas putida colonies growing on glucose agar. Our results show that, with respect to the condition of resource uptake, the model's correspondence to experimental data is significantly higher for conditional than for unconditional bacterial dispersal. In particular, these results support the hypothesis that bacteria disperse less when resources are abundant. We also show that the dispersal strategy has a considerable impact on model predictions for bacterial degradation of resources: disregarding conditional bacterial dispersal can lead to overestimations when assessing the performance of this ecosystem service.

Consequences of range contractions and range shifts on molecular diversity

Due to past and current climatic changes, range contractions and range shifts are essential stages in the history of a species. However, unlike range expansions, the molecular consequences of these processes have been little investigated. In order to fill this gap, we simulated patterns of molecular diversity within and between populations for various types of range contractions and range shifts. We show that range contractions tend to decrease genetic diversity as compared with population with stable ranges but quite counterintuitively fast range contractions preserve higher levels of diversity and induce lower levels of genetic differentiation among refuge areas than slow contractions. Contrastingly, fast range shifts lead to lower levels of diversity than slow range shifts. At odds with our expectations, we find that species actively migrating toward refuge areas can only preserve higher levels of diversity in refugia if the contraction is rapid. Under slow range contraction or slow range shift, active migration toward refugia lead to a larger loss of diversity as compared with scenarios with isotropic migration and may thus not be a good evolutionary strategy. These results suggest that the levels of diversity preserved after a climate change both within and between refuge areas will not only depend on the dispersal abilities of a species but also on the speed of the change. It also implies that a given episode of climatic change will impact differently species with different generation times.