Wang J, Mei Y, Hicks D. Science communication. Comment on "Quantifying long-term scientific impact".
Science 2014;
345:149. [PMID:
25013055 DOI:
10.1126/science.1248770]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Wang et al. (Reports, 4 October 2013, p. 127) claimed high prediction power for their model of citation dynamics. We replicate their analysis but find discouraging results: 14.75% papers are estimated with unreasonably large μ (>5) and λ (>10) and correspondingly enormous prediction errors. The prediction power is even worse than simply using short-term citations to approximate long-term citations.
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