The 2009 Samoa–Tonga great earthquake triggered doublet

The FIRE-IN project: Tsunami-risk related practitioner challenges and 3rd cycle overall results

This article summarizes the methodology for the identification of practitioners' challenges, in the context of the H2020 funded project FIRE-IN (Fire and Rescue Innovation Network) activities. The project consisted of five thematic areas or "Thematic Working Groups", as they are called, i.e., Search and Rescue Emergency Response, Structure Fires, Landscape Fires Crisis Mitigation, Natural Hazard Mitigation and Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear and Explosives, and three iterations, each one including the identification of capability challenges, the screening for solutions, that can potentially address these challenges, and the request for ideas regarding future innovations that will complement already existing ones and will assist in covering capability gaps. This article focuses on the natural hazard mitigation working group and tsunamis in the Mediterranean region as a case study for the 3rd and last iteration of the project. The scenario of a tsunami occurrence in the Mediterranean is the basis for the FIRE-IN 3rd cycle workshop, as an indicative example of a high impact - low probability event, which aims to identify practitioners' Future Common Capability Challenges in Europe. The current status of the tsunami hazard in Europe, national and international tsunami risk mitigation measures and procedures and operational experience from recent events are also discussed. Focus is provided on the natural hazard mitigation and tsunami related practitioners' challenges, while results from the FIRE-IN request for ideas process and the interaction between practitioners, researchers and industry are also discussed. The aim is to present practitioners' current and future capability challenges , one of the main outcomes of the FIRE-IN project, and to provide further guidelines to stakeholders of disaster management towards a safer Europe, mainly, through preparedness and adaptation for stronger and resilient societies.

A method for evaluating population and infrastructure exposed to natural hazards: tests and results for two recent Tonga tsunamis

Background

Coastal communities are highly exposed to ocean- and -related hazards but often lack an accurate population and infrastructure database. On January 15, 2022 and for many days thereafter, the Kingdom of Tonga was cut off from the rest of the world by a destructive tsunami associated with the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption. This situation was made worse by COVID-19-related lockdowns and no precise idea of the magnitude and pattern of destruction incurred, confirming Tonga's position as second out of 172 countries ranked by the World Risk Index 2018. The occurrence of such events in remote island communities highlights the need for (1) precisely knowing the distribution of buildings, and (2) evaluating what proportion of those would be vulnerable to a tsunami.

Methods and Results

A GIS-based dasymetric mapping method, previously tested in New Caledonia for assessing and calibrating population distribution at high resolution, is improved and implemented in less than a day to jointly map population clusters and critical elevation contours based on runup scenarios, and is tested against destruction patterns independently recorded in Tonga after the two recent tsunamis of 2009 and 2022. Results show that ~ 62% of the population of Tonga lives in well-defined clusters between sea level and the 15 m elevation contour. The patterns of vulnerability thus obtained for each island of the archipelago allow exposure and potential for cumulative damage to be ranked as a function of tsunami magnitude and source area.

Conclusions

By relying on low-cost tools and incomplete datasets for rapid implementation in the context of natural disasters, this approach works for all types of natural hazards, is easily transferable to other insular settings, can assist in guiding emergency rescue targets, and can help to elaborate future land-use planning priorities for disaster risk reduction purposes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40677-023-00235-8.

From offshore to onshore probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment via efficient Monte Carlo sampling

Offshore Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (offshore PTHAs) provide large-scale analyses of earthquake-tsunami frequencies and uncertainties in the deep ocean, but do not provide high-resolution onshore tsunami hazard information as required for many risk-management applications. To understand the implications of an offshore PTHA for the onshore hazard at any site, in principle the tsunami inundation should be simulated locally for every earthquake scenario in the offshore PTHA. In practice this is rarely feasible due to the computational expense of inundation models, and the large number of scenarios in offshore PTHAs. Monte Carlo methods offer a practical and rigorous alternative for approximating the onshore hazard, using a random subset of scenarios. The resulting Monte Carlo errors can be quantified and controlled, enabling high-resolution onshore PTHAs to be implemented at a fraction of the computational cost. This study develops efficient Monte Carlo approaches for offshore-to-onshore PTHA. Modelled offshore PTHA wave heights are used to preferentially sample scenarios that have large offshore waves near an onshore site of interest. By appropriately weighting the scenarios, the Monte Carlo errors are reduced without introducing bias. The techniques are demonstrated in a high-resolution onshore PTHA for the island of Tongatapu in Tonga, using the 2018 Australian PTHA as the offshore PTHA, while considering only thrust earthquake sources on the Kermadec-Tonga trench. The efficiency improvements are equivalent to using 4-18 times more random scenarios, as compared with stratified-sampling by magnitude, which is commonly used for onshore PTHA. The greatest efficiency improvements are for rare, large tsunamis, and for calculations that represent epistemic uncertainties in the tsunami hazard. To facilitate the control of Monte Carlo errors in practical applications, this study also provides analytical techniques for estimating the errors both before and after inundation simulations are conducted. Before inundation simulation, this enables a proposed Monte Carlo sampling scheme to be checked, and potentially improved, at minimal computational cost. After inundation simulation, it enables the remaining Monte Carlo errors to be quantified at onshore sites, without additional inundation simulations. In combination these techniques enable offshore PTHAs to be rigorously transformed into onshore PTHAs, with quantification of epistemic uncertainties, while controlling Monte Carlo errors.

Reconstructing the 26 June 1917 Samoa Tsunami Disaster

The 1917 Samoa tsunamigenic earthquake is the largest historical event to impact this region. Over a century later, little is known about the tsunami magnitude and its implications for modern society. This study reconstructs the 1917 tsunami to understand its hazard characteristics in the Samoan region and assesses the risk implications of tsunamis sourced from different locations along the subduction zone bend of the Northern Tonga Trench (NTT). We model the event from its origin to produce outputs of tsunami inundation extent and depth at spatially flexible grid resolution, which are validated using available runup observations and Apia harbour tide gauge records. We then combine the inundation model with digital distributions of buildings to produce exposure metrics for evaluating the likely impacts on present-day coastal assets and populations if a similar tsunami were to occur. Results exhibit recorded and modelled wave arrival time discrepancies in Apia harbour of between 30–40 min, with runup underestimated in southeast Upolu Island compared with the rest of the country. These differences could reflect complexities in the tsunami source mechanism that are not represented in our modelling and require further investigation. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that if a characteristic 1917-type event were to occur again, approximately 71% of exposed people would reside in Savai’i. Overall, this study provides the first detailed inundation model of the 1917 tsunami that supports an appreciation of the regional risk to local tsunamis sourced at the subduction zone bend of the NTT in Samoa.

Slow deformation event between large intraslab earthquakes at the Tonga Trench

Slow deformations associated with a subducting slab can affect quasi-static displacements and seismicity over a wide range of depths. Here, we analyse the seismotectonic activities in the Tonga subduction zone, which is the world’s most active area with regard to deep earthquakes. In our study, we combine data from global navigation satellite systems with an earthquake catalogue. We focus on the deep earthquakes that are below 400 km at the lower part of the Wadati–Benioff zone. We find that trenchward transient displacements and quiescence of deep earthquakes, in terms of background seismicity, were bounded in time by large intraslab earthquakes in 2009 and 2013. This “slow deformation event” between 2009 and 2013 may have been triggered by a distant and shallow M8.1 earthquake, which implies a slow slip event at the plate interface or a temporal acceleration of the subduction of the Pacific Plate. These findings provide new insights into the relationship between shallow and deep earthquakes in the subduction zone.

Reassessment of Long-Term Tsunami Hazards in Samoa Based on Sedimentary Signatures

Investigating tsunamis and cyclones from depositional records enables an understanding of the long-term hazards to coastal communities. In Samoa, whilst a long-term record of tsunamis and cyclones spanning the last few millennia has been previously suggested based on preliminary sediment core/trench studies, a detailed assessment of the characteristics distinguishing these events has not been presented. This study reevaluates the depositional evidence available for Samoa and offers a more robust interpretation of the temporal and spatial records of tsunami events preserved in the Samoan sedimentary record. Tsunami inundation and runup records of the 2009 South Pacific tsunami along with differences in depositional settings, and sedimentary and geochemical characteristics of the associated deposits provide modern analogies for interpreting comparable older event-type deposits deeper in the Samoan geological record. These are aided by the 1990/1991 Cyclones Ofa and Val deposits previously suggested at some sites, which provides a modern analogy for interpreting cyclone-related deposits. Available radiocarbon and radiometric dates for the core/trench sites provide time-indicators to identify contemporaneous events, which we use to interpret the long-term record of tsunamis in this island region.

Deposits, flow characteristics, and landscape change resulting from the September 2009 South Pacific tsunami in the Samoan islands

The September 29th 2009 tsunami caused widespread coastal modification within the islands of Samoa and northern Tonga in the South Pacific. Preliminary measurements indicate maximum runup values of around 17 m (Okal et al., 2010) and shore-normal inundation distances of up to ~ 620 m (Jaffe et al., 2010). Geological field reconnaissance studies were conducted as part of an UNESCO-IOC International Tsunami Survey Team survey within three weeks of the event in order to document the erosion, transport, and deposition of sediment by the tsunami. Data collected included: a) general morphology and geological characteristics of the coast, b) evidence of tsunami flow (inundation, flow depth and direction, wave height and runup), c) surficial and subsurface sediment samples including deposit thickness and extent, d) topographic mapping, and e) boulder size and location measurements. Four main types of sedimentary deposits were identified: a) gravel fields consisting mostly of isolated cobbles and boulders, b) sand sheets from a few to ~ 25 cm thick, c) piles of organic (mostly vegetation) and man-made material forming debris ramparts, and d) surface mud deposits that settled from suspension from standing water in the tsunami aftermath. Tsunami deposits within the reef system were not widespread, however, surficial changes to the reefs were observed.