Possible control of subduction zone slow-earthquake periodicity by silica enrichment

Precipitation-induced filament pattern of injected fluid controlled by a structured cell

Mixing of two fluids can lead to the formation of a precipitate. If one of the fluids is injected into a confined space filled with the other, then a created precipitate disrupts the flow locally and forms complex spatiotemporal patterns. The relevance of controlling these patterns has been highlighted in the engineering and geological contexts. Here, we show that such injection patterns can be controlled consistently by injection rate and obstacles. Our experimental results revealed filament patterns for high-injection and low-reaction rates, and the injection rate can control the number of active filaments. Furthermore, appropriately spaced obstacles in the cells can straighten the motion of the advancing tip of the filament. A mathematical model based on a moving boundary adopting the effect of precipitation reproduced the phase diagram and the straight motion of filaments in structured cells. Our study clarifies the impact of the nonlinear permeability response on the precipitate density and that of the obstacles in the surrounding medium on the motion of the injected fluid with precipitation.

Reestimation of slab dehydration fronts in Kuril-Kamchatka using updated global subduction zone thermal structures

Previous subduction thermal models are inconsistent with the values of forearc heat flow (50-140 mW/m²) and global P‒T conditions of exhumed rocks, both suggesting a shallow environment 200-300°C warmer than model predictions. Here, we revaluate these problems in Kuril-Kamchatka using 3D thermomechanical modeling that satisfies the observed subduction history and slab geometry, while our refined 3D slab thermal state is warmer than that predicted by previous 2D models and better matches observational constraints. We show that warmer slabs create hierarchical slab dehydration fronts at various forearc depths, causing fast and slow subduction earthquakes. We conclude that fast-to-slow subduction earthquakes all play a key role in balancing plate coupling energy release on megathrusts trenchward of high P-T volcanism.

Segmentation of Shallow Slow Slip Events at the Hikurangi Subduction Zone Explained by Along-Strike Changes in Fault Geometry and Plate Convergence Rates

Over the last two decades, geodetic and seismic observations have revealed a spectrum of slow earthquakes along the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand. Of those, shallow slow slip events (SSEs) that occur at depths of less than 15 km along the plate interface show a strong along-strike segmentation in their recurrence intervals, which vary from ∼1 yr from offshore Tolaga Bay in the northeast to ∼5 yr offshore Cape Turnagain ∼300 km to the southwest. To understand the factors that control this segmentation, we conduct numerical simulations of SSEs incorporating laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction laws with both planar and non-planar fault geometries. We find that a relatively simple model assuming a realistic non-planar fault geometry reproduces the characteristics of shallow SSEs as constrained by geodetic observations. Our preferred model captures the magnitudes and durations of SSEs, as well as the northward decrease of their recurrence intervals. Our results indicate that the segmentation of SSE recurrence intervals is favored by along-strike changes in both the plate convergence rate and the downdip width of the SSE source region. Modeled SSEs with longer recurrence intervals concentrate in the southern part of the fault (offshore Cape Turnagain), where the plate convergence rate is lowest and the source region of SSEs is widest due to the shallower slab dip angle. Notably, the observed segmentation of shallow SSEs cannot be reproduced with a simple planar fault model, which indicates that a realistic plate interface is an important factor to account for in modeling SSEs.

Constraints From Exhumed Rocks on the Seismic Signature of the Deep Subduction Interface

Low Velocity Zones (LVZs) with anomalously high V _p-V _s ratios occur along the downdip extents of subduction megathrusts in most modern subduction zones and are collocated with complex seismic and transient deformation patterns. LVZs are attributed to high pore fluid pressures, but the spatial correlation between the LVZ and the subduction interface, as well as the rock types that define them, remain unclear. We characterize the seismic signature of a fossil subduction interface shear zone in northern California that is sourced from the same depth range as modern LVZs. Deformation was distributed across 3 km of dominantly metasedimentary rocks, with periodic strain localization to km-scale ultramafic lenses. We estimate seismic velocities accounting for mineral and fracture anisotropy, constrained by microstructural observations and field measurements, resulting in a V _p/V_s of 2.0. Comparable thicknesses and velocities suggest that LVZs represent, at least in part, the subduction interface shear zone.

Fault zone heterogeneities explain depth-dependent pattern and evolution of slow earthquakes in Cascadia

Slow earthquakes including tremor and slow-slip events are recent additions to the conventional earthquake family and have a close link to megathrust earthquakes. Slow earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone display a diverse behavior at different spatiotemporal scales and an intriguing increase of events frequency with depth. However, what causes such variability, especially the depth-dependent behavior is not well understood. Here we build on a heterogeneous asperities-in-matrix fault model that incorporates differential pore pressure in a rate-and-state friction framework to investigate the underlying processes of the observed episodic tremor and slow-slip (ETS) variability. We find that the variations of effective normal stress (pore pressure) is one important factor in controlling ETS behavior. Our model reproduces the full complexity of ETS patterns and the depth-frequency scaling that agree quantitatively well with observations, suggesting that fault zone heterogeneities can be one viable mechanism to explain a broad spectrum of transient fault behaviors.

Here, the authors combine the geological and seismological constraints of the Cascadia Subduction Zone and develop a 3D rate and state friction model. By considering depth-dependent variations of differential pore pressure following a simple linear profile, the model reproduces the full spectrum of the observed ETS complexity.

What's down there? The structures, materials and environment of deep-seated slow slip and tremor

Deep-seated slow slip and tremor (SST), including slow slip events, episodic tremor and slip, and low-frequency earthquakes, occur downdip of the seismogenic zone of numerous subduction megathrusts and plate boundary strike-slip faults. These events represent a fascinating and perplexing mode of fault failure that has greatly broadened our view of earthquake dynamics. In this contribution, we review constraints on SST deformation processes from both geophysical observations of active subduction zones and geological observations of exhumed field analogues. We first provide an overview of what has been learned about the environment, kinematics and dynamics of SST from geodetic and seismologic data. We then describe the materials, deformation mechanisms, and metamorphic and fluid pressure conditions that characterize exhumed rocks from SST source depths. Both the geophysical and geological records strongly suggest the importance of a fluid-rich and high fluid pressure habitat for the SST source region. Additionally, transient deformation features preserved in the rock record, involving combined frictional-viscous shear in regions of mixed lithology and near-lithostatic fluid pressures, may scale with the tremor component of SST. While several open questions remain, it is clear that improved constraints on the materials, environment, structure, and conditions of the plate interface from geophysical imaging and geologic observations will enhance model representations of the boundary conditions and geometry of the SST deformation process. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Understanding earthquakes using the geological record'.

Characteristic activities of slow earthquakes in Japan

Slow earthquakes are a recently discovered phenomenon that mainly occur updip and downdip of the seismogenic zones of great earthquakes along the subducting plate interface. The spatiotemporal activity of various slow earthquakes occurring in the Nankai subduction zone is characterized by along-strike heterogeneity and along-dip systematic changes. Various slow earthquakes are horizontally distributed at their own depths and along-strike segments can be observed with respect to this distribution downdip of the locked zone; however, slow and great earthquakes occur in the same depth range near the Nankai Trough and Japan Trench axes. The frequently observed spatiotemporal interactions between different slow earthquakes can be attributed to their sensitivity and the stress transfer of the surrounding areas. This stress transfer is expected to extend to the adjacent sections in the seismogenic zone. Therefore, precise monitoring of slow earthquakes is important for future evaluations of great earthquakes, which requires the long-term maintenance and continuous improvement of the high-quality observation networks.

Seismic evidence for megathrust fault-valve behavior during episodic tremor and slip

Fault slip behavior during episodic tremor and slow slip (ETS) events, which occur at the deep extension of subduction zone megathrust faults, is believed to be related to cyclic fluid processes that necessitate fluctuations in pore-fluid pressures. In most subduction zones, a layer of anomalously low seismic wave velocities [low-velocity layer (LVL)] is observed in the vicinity of ETS and suggests high pore-fluid pressures that weaken the megathrust. Using repeated seismic scattering observations in the Cascadia subduction zone, we observe a change in the seismic velocity associated with the LVL after ETS events, which we interpret as a response to fluctuations in pore-fluid pressure. These results provide direct evidence of megathrust fault-valve processes during ETS.

Stress-driven fluid flow controls long-term megathrust strength and deep accretionary dynamics

The heterogeneity of frictional strength along the megathrust earthquake zone critically controls plate coupling and long-term subduction dynamics. However, the persistence and distribution of high-friction segments through space and time remain poorly constrained. Here, we show that accretion processes, such as tectonic underplating (i.e., basal accretion of material below the fore-arc region), can be used as a proxy to characterize the long-term frictional zonation of the subduction interface. We carry out numerical thermo-mechanical experiments, which predict a first-order control of tectonic-stress variations on fluid transport in deep fore-arc regions. Accordingly, positive feedback between fluid distribution and effective stress favours the stability of the interface frictional properties at Myr-scale which, in turn, controls the deep accretionary dynamics. We propose that the recognition of thick duplex structures resulting from successive underplating events over tens of Myr, allows for tracking subduction segments exhibiting an increasing frictional behaviour. Our numerical results help ascertain the long-term hydro-mechanical properties and distribution of coupling/decoupling segments of megathrust earthquake zones worldwide where active tectonic underplating is recognized.

Earthquakes track subduction fluids from slab source to mantle wedge sink

Subducting plates release fluids as they plunge into Earth's mantle and occasionally rupture to produce intraslab earthquakes. It is debated whether fluids and earthquakes are directly related. By combining seismic observations and geodynamic models from western Greece, and comparing across other subduction zones, we find that earthquakes effectively track the flow of fluids from their slab source at >80 km depth to their sink at shallow (<40 km) depth. Between source and sink, the fluids flow updip under a sealed plate interface, facilitating intraslab earthquakes. In some locations, the seal breaks and fluids escape through vents into the mantle wedge, thereby reducing the fluid supply and seismicity updip in the slab. The vents themselves may represent nucleation sites for larger damaging earthquakes.

Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M_w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to ~70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.

Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model

Subduction zones are home to the most seismically active faults on the planet. The shallow megathrust interfaces of subduction zones host Earth's largest earthquakes and are likely the only faults capable of magnitude 9+ ruptures. Despite these facts, our knowledge of subduction zone geometry-which likely plays a key role in determining the spatial extent and ultimately the size of subduction zone earthquakes-is incomplete. We calculated the three-dimensional geometries of all seismically active global subduction zones. The resulting model, called Slab2, provides a uniform geometrical analysis of all currently subducting slabs.

Revealing the cluster of slow transients behind a large slow slip event

Capable of reaching similar magnitudes to large megathrust earthquakes [Mw (moment magnitude) > 7], slow slip events play a major role in accommodating tectonic motion on plate boundaries through predominantly aseismic rupture. We demonstrate here that large slow slip events are a cluster of short-duration slow transients. Using a dense catalog of low-frequency earthquakes as a guide, we investigate the Mw 7.5 slow slip event that occurred in 2006 along the subduction interface 40 km beneath Guerrero, Mexico. We show that while the long-period surface displacement, as recorded by Global Positioning System, suggests a 6-month duration, the motion in the direction of tectonic release only sporadically occurs over 55 days, and its surface signature is attenuated by rapid relocking of the plate interface. Our proposed description of slow slip as a cluster of slow transients forces us to re-evaluate our understanding of the physics and scaling of slow earthquakes.

Silica precipitation potentially controls earthquake recurrence in seismogenic zones

Silica precipitation is assumed to play a significant role in post-earthquake recovery of the mechanical and hydrological properties of seismogenic zones. However, the relationship between the widespread quartz veins around seismogenic zones and earthquake recurrence is poorly understood. Here we propose a novel model of quartz vein formation associated with fluid advection from host rocks and silica precipitation in a crack, in order to quantify the timescale of crack sealing. When applied to sets of extensional quartz veins around the Nobeoka Thrust of SW Japan, an ancient seismogenic splay fault, our model indicates that a fluid pressure drop of 10-25 MPa facilitates the formation of typical extensional quartz veins over a period of 6.6 × 10⁰-5.6 × 10¹ years, and that 89%-100% of porosity is recovered within ~3 × 10² years. The former and latter sealing timescales correspond to the extensional stress period (~3 × 10¹ years) and the recurrence interval of megaearthquakes in the Nankai Trough (~3 × 10² years), respectively. We therefore suggest that silica precipitation in the accretionary wedge controls the recurrence interval of large earthquakes in subduction zones.

Discontinuous boundaries of slow slip events beneath the Bungo Channel, southwest Japan

The down-dip limit of the seismogenic zone and up-dip and down-dip limits of the deep low-frequency tremors in southwest Japan are clearly imaged by the hypocentre distribution. Previous studies using smooth constraints in inversion analyses estimated that long-term slow slip events (L-SSEs) beneath the Bungo Channel are distributed smoothly from the down-dip part of the seismogenic zone to the up-dip part of the tremors. Here, we use fused regularisation, a type of sparse modelling suitable for detecting discontinuous changes in the model parameters to estimate the slip distribution of L-SSEs. The largest slip abruptly becomes zero at the down-dip limit of the seismogenic zone, is immediately reduced to half at the up-dip limit of the tremors, and becomes zero near its down-dip limit. Such correspondences imply that some thresholds exist in the generation processes for both tremors and SSEs. Hence, geodetic data inversion with sparse modelling can detect such high resolution in the slip distribution.

Rheological separation of the megathrust seismogenic zone and episodic tremor and slip

Episodic tremor and accompanying slow slip, together called ETS, is most often observed in subduction zones of young and warm subducting slabs. ETS should help us to understand the mechanics of subduction megathrusts, but its mechanism is still unclear. It is commonly assumed that ETS represents a transition from seismic to aseismic behaviour of the megathrust with increasing depth, but this assumption is in contradiction with an observed spatial separation between the seismogenic zone and the ETS zone. Here we propose a unifying model for the necessary geological condition of ETS that explains the relationship between the two zones. By developing numerical thermal models, we examine the governing role of thermo-petrologically controlled fault zone rheology (frictional versus viscous shear). High temperatures in the warm-slab environment cause the megathrust seismogenic zone to terminate before reaching the depth of the intersection of the continental Mohorovičić discontinuity (Moho) and the subduction interface, called the mantle wedge corner. High pore-fluid pressures around the mantle wedge corner give rise to an isolated friction zone responsible for ETS. Separating the two zones is a segment of semi-frictional or viscous behaviour. The new model reconciles a wide range of seemingly disparate observations and defines a conceptual framework for the study of slip behaviour and the seismogenesis of major faults.

Tremor activity inhibited by well-drained conditions above a megathrust

Tremor occurs on megathrusts under conditions of near-lithostatic pore-fluid pressures and extremely weakened shear strengths. Although metamorphic reactions in the slab liberate large amounts of fluids, the mechanism for enhancing pore-fluid pressures along the megathrust to near-lithostatic values remains poorly understood. Here we show anti-correlation between low-frequency earthquake (LFE) activity and properties that are markers of the degree of metamorphism above the megathrust, whereby LFEs occur beneath the unmetamorphosed overlying plate but are rare or limited below portions that are metamorphosed. The extent of metamorphism in the overlying plate is likely controlled by along-strike contrasts in permeability. Undrained conditions are required for pore-fluid pressures to be enhanced to near-lithostatic values and for shear strength to reduce sufficiently for LFE generation, whereas well-drained conditions reduce pore-fluid pressures at the megathrust and LFEs no longer occur at the somewhat strengthened megathrust. Our observations suggest that undrained conditions are a key factor for the genesis of LFEs.

Periodic slow slip triggers megathrust zone earthquakes in northeastern Japan

Both aseismic and seismic slip accommodate relative motion across partially coupled plate-boundary faults. In northeastern Japan, aseismic slip occurs in the form of decelerating afterslip after large interplate earthquakes and as relatively steady slip on uncoupled areas of the subduction thrust. Here we report on a previously unrecognized quasi-periodic slow-slip behavior that is widespread in the megathrust zone. The repeat intervals of the slow slip range from 1 to 6 years and often coincide with or precede clusters of large [magnitude (M) ≥ 5] earthquakes, including the 2011 M 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake. These results suggest that inherently periodic slow-slip events result in periodic stress perturbations and modulate the occurrence time of larger earthquakes. The periodicity in the slow-slip rate has the potential to help refine time-dependent earthquake forecasts.