Initiation and long-term instability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

The non-flowering plants of a near-polar forest in East Gondwana, Tasmania, Australia, during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum

PREMISE

The Cenozoic Macquarie Harbour Formation (MHF) hosts one of the oldest and southernmost post-Cretaceous fossil plant assemblages in Australia. Coinciding with the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) and predating the breakup of Australia from Antarctica, it offers critical data to study the diversity and extent of the Austral Polar Forest Biome, and the floristic divergence between Australasia and South America resulting from the Gondwana breakup.

METHODS

The micromorphology and macromorphology of new fossil plant compressions from the MHF were described and systematically analyzed. Previously published non-flowering plant records were reviewed and revised. Macrofossil abundance data were provided. The flora was compared with other early Paleogene assemblages from across the Southern Hemisphere.

RESULTS

Twelve species of non-flowering plants were identified from the macrofossil record. Conifers include Araucariaceae (Araucaria macrophylla, A. readiae, A. timkarikensis sp. nov., and Araucarioides linearis), Podocarpaceae (Acmopyle glabra, Dacrycarpus mucronatus, Podocarpus paralungatikensis sp. nov., and Retrophyllum sp.), and Cupressaceae (Libocedrus microformis). Dacrycarpus linifolius was designated a junior synonym of D. mucronatus. Further components include a cycad (Bowenia johnsonii, Zamiaceae), a pteridosperm (Komlopteris cenozoicus, Umkomasiaceae), and a fern (Lygodium dinmorphyllum, Schizaeaceae).

CONCLUSIONS

The fossil assemblage represents a mixed near-polar forest with a high diversity of conifers. The morphology and preservation of several species indicate adaptations to life at high latitudes. The coexistence of large- and small-leaved conifers implies complex, possibly open forest structures. Comparisons with contemporaneous assemblages from Argentina support a circumpolar biome during the EECO, reaching from southern Australia across Antarctica to southern South America.

Geologically constrained 2-million-year-long simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat and expansion through the Pliocene

Pliocene global temperatures periodically exceeded modern levels, offering insights into ice sheet sensitivity to warm climates. Ice-proximal geologic records from this period provide crucial but limited glimpses of Antarctic Ice Sheet behavior. We use an ice sheet model driven by climate model snapshots to simulate transient glacial cyclicity from 4.5 to 2.6 Ma, providing spatial and temporal context for geologic records. By evaluating model simulations against a comprehensive synthesis of geologic data, we translate the intermittent geologic record into a continuous reconstruction of Antarctic sea level contributions, revealing a dynamic ice sheet that contributed up to 25 m of glacial-interglacial sea level change. Model grounding line behavior across all major Antarctic catchments exhibits an extended period of receded ice during the mid-Pliocene, coincident with proximal geologic data around Antarctica but earlier than peak warmth in the Northern Hemisphere. Marine ice sheet collapse is triggered with 1.5 °C model subsurface ocean warming.

Shear-Enhanced Ion Rejection during Seawater Freezing

Ion rejection during seawater freezing is the basis for freeze desalination. A high ion rejection rate is desired for improving the performance of freeze desalination. In this work, we propose a method to enhance the ion rejection rate through external shear, which is demonstrated through molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and experiments. MD simulations show that the ion rejection rate increases with an increasing shear rate. This is attributed to the disruption of the hydration bonds between ions and water molecules in the hydration shell caused by the shear. Consequently, the mobility of ions is increased, and the energy barrier is reduced at the ice-water interface such that ions have a greater chance of diffusing into the aqueous solution, leading to an enhanced ion rejection rate. The MD results in this work are qualitatively confirmed by experiments and provide insights into the enhancement of the ion rejection rate through external parameters.

An ancient river landscape preserved beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) has its origins ca. 34 million years ago. Since then, the impact of climate change and past fluctuations in the EAIS margin has been reflected in periods of extensive vs. restricted ice cover and the modification of much of the Antarctic landscape. Resolving processes of landscape evolution is therefore critical for establishing ice sheet history, but it is rare to find unmodified landscapes that record past ice conditions. Here, we discover an extensive relic pre-glacial landscape preserved beneath the central EAIS despite millions of years of ice cover. The landscape was formed by rivers prior to ice sheet build-up but later modified by local glaciation before being dissected by outlet glaciers at the margin of a restricted ice sheet. Preservation of the relic surfaces indicates an absence of significant warm-based ice throughout their history, suggesting any transitions between restricted and expanded ice were rapid.

On-shelf circulation of warm water toward the Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica

The Totten Glacier in East Antarctica, with an ice volume equivalent to >3.5 m of global sea-level rise, is grounded below sea level and, therefore, vulnerable to ocean forcing. Here, we use bathymetric and oceanographic observations from previously unsampled parts of the Totten continental shelf to reveal on-shelf warm water pathways defined by deep topographic features. Access of warm water to the Totten Ice Shelf (TIS) cavity is facilitated by a deep shelf break, a broad and deep depression on the shelf, a cyclonic circulation that carries warm water to the inner shelf, and deep troughs that provide direct access to the TIS cavity. The temperature of the warmest water reaching the TIS cavity varies by ~0.8 °C on an interannual timescale. Numerical simulations constrained by the updated bathymetry demonstrate that the deep troughs play a critical role in regulating ocean heat transport to the TIS cavity and the subsequent basal melt of the ice shelf.

Southern Ocean biogenic blooms freezing-in Oligocene colder climates

Crossing a key atmospheric CO₂ threshold triggered a fundamental global climate reorganisation ~34 million years ago (Ma) establishing permanent Antarctic ice sheets. Curiously, a more dramatic CO₂ decline (~800-400 ppm by the Early Oligocene(~27 Ma)), postdates initial ice sheet expansion but the mechanisms driving this later, rapid drop in atmospheric carbon during the early Oligocene remains elusive and controversial. Here we use marine seismic reflection and borehole data to reveal an unprecedented accumulation of early Oligocene strata (up to 2.2 km thick over 1500 × 500 km) with a major biogenic component in the Australian Southern Ocean. High-resolution ocean simulations demonstrate that a tectonically-driven, one-off reorganisation of ocean currents, caused a unique period where current instability coincided with high nutrient input from the Antarctic continent. This unrepeated and short-lived environment favoured extreme bioproductivity and enhanced sediment burial. The size and rapid accumulation of this sediment package potentially holds ~1.067 × 10¹⁵ kg of the 'missing carbon' sequestered during the decline from an Eocene high CO₂-world to a mid-Oligocene medium CO₂-world, highlighting the exceptional role of the Southern Ocean in modulating long-term climate.

Polar amplification comparison among Earth's three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

The polar amplification (PA) has become the focus of climate change. However, there are seldom comparisons of amplification among Earth’s three poles of Arctic (latitude higher than 60 °N), Antarctica (Antarctic Ice Sheet) and the Third Pole (the High Mountain Asia with the elevation higher than 4000 m) under different socioeconomic scenarios. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, two types of PA index (PAI) have been defined to quantify the PA intensity and variations, and PAI1/PAI2 is defined as the ratio of the absolute value of surface air temperature linear trend over Earth’s three poles and that for global mean/over other regions except Earth’s three poles. Arctic warms fastest in winter and weakest in summer, followed by the Third Pole, and Antarctica warms least. The similar phenomenon proceeds when global warming of 1.5–2.0 °C, and 2.0–3.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. After removing the Earth’s three poles self-influence, all the PAI2s increase much more obviously relative to the PAI1s, especially the Antarctic PAI. Earth’s three poles warm faster than the other regions. With the forcing increasing, PA accelerates much more over Antarctica and the Third Pole, but becomes weaker over Arctic. This demonstrates that future warming rate might make a large difference among Earth’s three poles under different scenarios.

Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

Cenozoic sea-level and cryospheric evolution from deep-sea geochemical and continental margin records

Using Pacific benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca records, we derive a Cenozoic (66 Ma) global mean sea level (GMSL) estimate that records evolution from an ice-free Early Eocene to Quaternary bipolar ice sheets. These GMSL estimates are statistically similar to "backstripped" estimates from continental margins accounting for compaction, loading, and thermal subsidence. Peak warmth, elevated GMSL, high CO₂, and ice-free "Hothouse" conditions (56 to 48 Ma) were followed by "Cool Greenhouse" (48 to 34 Ma) ice sheets (10 to 30 m changes). Continental-scale ice sheets ("Icehouse") began ~34 Ma (>50 m changes), permanent East Antarctic ice sheets at 12.8 Ma, and bipolar glaciation at 2.5 Ma. The largest GMSL fall (27 to 20 ka; ~130 m) was followed by a >40 mm/yr rise (19 to 10 ka), a slowing (10 to 2 ka), and a stillstand until ~1900 CE, when rates began to rise. High long-term CO₂ caused warm climates and high sea levels, with sea-level variability dominated by periodic Milankovitch cycles.

Radar-Derived Internal Structure and Basal Roughness Characterization along a Traverse from Zhongshan Station to Dome A, East Antarctica

The internal layers of ice sheets from ice-penetrating radar (IPR) investigation preserve critical information about the ice-flow field and englacial conditions. This paper presents a new detailed analysis of spatial distribution characteristics of internal layers and subglacial topography of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) from Zhongshan Station to Dome A. The radar data of 1244 km along a traverse between Zhongshan Station and Dome A of EAIS were collected during the 29th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition (CHINARE 29, 2012/2013). In this study, the Internal Layering Continuity Index (ILCI) and basal roughness were taken as indicators to provide an opportunity to evaluate the past internal environment and dynamics of the ice sheet. Except for the upstream of Lambert Glacier, the fold patterns of internal layers are basically similar to that of the bed topography. The relatively flat basal topography and the decrease of ILCI with increasing depth provide evidence for identifying previous rapid ice flow areas that are unavailable to satellites, especially in the upstream of Lambert Glacier. Continuous internal layers of Dome A, recording the spatial change of past ice accumulation and ice-flow history over 160 ka, almost extend to the bed, with high ILCI and high basal roughness of the corresponding bed topography. There are three kinds of basal roughness patterns along the traverse, that is, “low ξt low η”, “low ξt high η”, and “high ξt high η”, where ξt represents the amplitude of the undulations, and quantifies the vertical variation of the bedrock, and η measures the frequency variation of fluctuations and the horizontal irregularity of the profile. The characteristics of internal layers and basal topography of the traverse between Zhongshan Station and Dome A provide new information for understanding the ancient ice-flow activity and the historical evolution of EAIS.

Divergent mammalian body size in a stable Eocene greenhouse climate

A negative correlation between body size and the latitudinal temperature gradient is well established for extant terrestrial endotherms but less so in the fossil record. Here we analyze the middle Eocene site of Geiseltal (Germany), whose record is considered to span ca. 5 Myrs of gradual global cooling, and generate one of the most extensive mammalian Paleogene body size datasets outside North America. The δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C isotopic analysis of bioapatite reveals signatures indicative of a humid, subtropical forest with no apparent climatic change across Geiseltal. Yet, body mass of hippomorphs and tapiromorphs diverges rapidly from a respective median body size of 39 kg and 124 kg at the base of the succession to 26 kg and 223 kg at the top. We attribute the divergent body mass evolution to a disparity in lifestyle, in which both taxa maximize their body size-related selective advantages. Our results therefore support the view that intrinsic biotic processes are an important driver of body mass outside of abrupt climate events. Moreover, the taxonomy previously used to infer the duration of the Geiseltal biota is not reproducible, which precludes chronological correlation with Eocene marine temperature curves.

Using museum pelt collections to generate pollen prints from high-risk regions: A new palynological forensic strategy for geolocation

The use of pollen as a forensic tool for geolocation is a well-established practice worldwide in cases ranging from the provenance of drugs and other illicit materials to tracking the travel of individuals in criminal investigations. Here we propose a novel approach to generation of pollen databases that uses pollen vacuumed from mammal pelts collected historically from international areas that are now deemed too high risk to visit. We present the results of a study we conducted using mammal pelts collected from Mexico. This new investigative technique is important because, although it would seem that the ubiquitous and geo-specific nature of pollen would make pollen analysis among the most promising forensic tools for law enforcement and intelligence agencies, it is not the case. The process is notoriously slow because pollen identification is a tedious task requiring trained specialists (palynologists) who are few in number worldwide, and the reference materials necessary for geolocation usually are rare or absent, especially from regions of the world that are no longer safe to visit because of war or threat of terrorism. Current forensic palynological work is carried out by a few highly trained palynologists who require accurate databases of pollen distribution, especially from sensitive areas, to do their jobs accurately and efficiently. Our project shows the suitability of using the untapped museum pelt resources to support homeland security programs. This first palynological study using museum pelts yielded 133 different pollen and spore types, including 8 moss or fern families, 12 gymnosperm genera and 112 angiosperm species. We show that the palynological print from each region is statistically different with some important clustering, demonstrating the potential to use this technique for geolocation.

Fingerprinting Proterozoic Bedrock in Interior Wilkes Land, East Antarctica

Wilkes Land in East Antarctica remains one of the last geological exploration frontiers on Earth. Hidden beneath kilometres of ice, its bedrock preserves a poorly-understood tectonic history that mirrors that of southern Australia and holds critical insights into past supercontinent cycles. Here, we use new and recently published Australian and Antarctic geological and geophysical data to present a novel interpretation of the age and character of crystalline basement and sedimentary cover of interior Wilkes Land. We combine new zircon U–Pb and Hf isotopic data from remote Antarctic outcrops with aeromagnetic data observations from the conjugate Australian-Antarctic margins to identify two new Antarctic Mesoproterozoic basement provinces corresponding to the continuation of the Coompana and Madura provinces of southern Australia into Wilkes Land. Using both detrital zircon U–Pb–Hf and authigenic monazite U–Th–Pb isotopic data from glacial erratic sandstone samples, we identify the presence of Neoproterozoic sedimentary rocks covering Mesoproterozoic basement. Together, these new geological insights into the ice-covered bedrock of Wilkes Land substantially improve correlations of Antarctic and Australian geological elements and provide key constraints on the tectonic architecture of this sector of the East Antarctic Shield and its role in supercontinent reconstructions.

Back to the Future: Using Long-Term Observational and Paleo-Proxy Reconstructions to Improve Model Projections of Antarctic Climate

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.

Past continental shelf evolution increased Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to climatic conditions

Over the past 34 Million years, the Antarctic continental shelf has gradually deepened due to ice sheet loading, thermal subsidence, and erosion from repeated glaciations. The deepening that is recorded in the sedimentary deposits around the Antarctic margin indicates that after the mid-Miocene Climate Optimum (≈15 Ma), Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) dynamical response to climate conditions changed. We explore end-members for maximum AIS extent, based on ice-sheet simulations of a late-Pleistocene and a mid-Miocene glaciation. Fundamental dynamical differences emerge as a consequence of atmospheric forcing, eustatic sea level and continental shelf evolution. We show that the AIS contributed to the amplification of its own sensitivity to ocean forcing by gradually expanding and eroding the continental shelf, that probably changed its tipping points through time. The lack of past topographic and bathymetric reconstructions implies that so far, we still have an incomplete understanding of AIS fast response to past warm climate conditions, which is crucial to constrain its future evolution.

Synchronous tropical and polar temperature evolution in the Eocene

Palaeoclimate reconstructions of periods with warm climates and high atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are crucial for developing better projections of future climate change. Deep-ocean^1,2 and high-latitude³ palaeotemperature proxies demonstrate that the Eocene epoch (56 to 34 million years ago) encompasses the warmest interval of the past 66 million years, followed by cooling towards the eventual establishment of ice caps on Antarctica. Eocene polar warmth is well established, so the main obstacle in quantifying the evolution of key climate parameters, such as global average temperature change and its polar amplification, is the lack of continuous high-quality tropical temperature reconstructions. Here we present a continuous Eocene equatorial sea surface temperature record, based on biomarker palaeothermometry applied on Atlantic Ocean sediments. We combine this record with the sparse existing data^4-6 to construct a 26-million-year multi-proxy, multi-site stack of Eocene tropical climate evolution. We find that tropical and deep-ocean temperatures changed in parallel, under the influence of both long-term climate trends and short-lived events. This is consistent with the hypothesis that greenhouse gas forcing^7,8, rather than changes in ocean circulation^9,10, was the main driver of Eocene climate. Moreover, we observe a strong linear relationship between tropical and deep-ocean temperatures, which implies a constant polar amplification factor throughout the generally ice-free Eocene. Quantitative comparison with fully coupled climate model simulations indicates that global average temperatures were about 29, 26, 23 and 19 degrees Celsius in the early, early middle, late middle and late Eocene, respectively, compared to the preindustrial temperature of 14.4 degrees Celsius. Finally, combining proxy- and model-based temperature estimates with available CO₂ reconstructions⁸ yields estimates of an Eocene Earth system sensitivity of 0.9 to 2.3 kelvin per watt per square metre at 68 per cent probability, consistent with the high end of previous estimates¹¹.

Spatio-temporal variability of processes across Antarctic ice-bed-ocean interfaces

Understanding how the Antarctic ice sheet will respond to global warming relies on knowledge of how it has behaved in the past. The use of numerical models, the only means to quantitatively predict the future, is hindered by limitations to topographic data both now and in the past, and in knowledge of how subsurface oceanic, glaciological and hydrological processes interact. Incorporating the variety and interplay of such processes, operating at multiple spatio-temporal scales, is critical to modeling the Antarctic's system evolution and requires direct observations in challenging locations. As these processes do not observe disciplinary boundaries neither should our future research.

Minimal East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat onto land during the past eight million years

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is the largest potential contributor to sea-level rise. However, efforts to predict the future evolution of the EAIS are hindered by uncertainty in how it responded to past warm periods, for example, during the Pliocene epoch (5.3 to 2.6 million years ago), when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were last higher than 400 parts per million. Geological evidence indicates that some marine-based portions of the EAIS and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreated during parts of the Pliocene^1,2, but it remains unclear whether ice grounded above sea level also experienced retreat. This uncertainty persists because global sea-level estimates for the Pliocene have large uncertainties and cannot be used to rule out substantial terrestrial ice loss ³ , and also because direct geological evidence bearing on past ice retreat on land is lacking. Here we show that land-based sectors of the EAIS that drain into the Ross Sea have been stable throughout the past eight million years. We base this conclusion on the extremely low concentrations of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al isotopes found in quartz sand extracted from a land-proximal marine sediment core. This sediment had been eroded from the continent, and its low levels of cosmogenic nuclides indicate that it experienced only minimal exposure to cosmic radiation, suggesting that the sediment source regions were covered in ice. These findings indicate that atmospheric warming during the past eight million years was insufficient to cause widespread or long-lasting meltback of the EAIS margin onto land. We suggest that variations in Antarctic ice volume in response to the range of global temperatures experienced over this period-up to 2-3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures ⁴ , corresponding to future scenarios involving carbon dioxide concentrations of between 400 and 500 parts per million-were instead driven mostly by the retreat of marine ice margins, in agreement with the latest models^5,6.

Recent high-resolution Antarctic ice velocity maps reveal increased mass loss in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica

We constructed Antarctic ice velocity maps from Landsat 8 images for the years 2014 and 2015 at a high spatial resolution (100 m). These maps were assembled from 10,690 scenes of displacement vectors inferred from more than 10,000 optical images acquired from December 2013 through March 2016. We estimated the mass discharge of the Antarctic ice sheet in 2008, 2014, and 2015 using the Landsat ice velocity maps, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-derived ice velocity maps (~2008) available from prior studies, and ice thickness data. An increased mass discharge (53 ± 14 Gt yr^-1) was found in the East Indian Ocean sector since 2008 due to unexpected widespread glacial acceleration in Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, while the other five oceanic sectors did not exhibit significant changes. However, present-day increased mass loss was found by previous studies predominantly in west Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. The newly discovered increased mass loss in Wilkes Land suggests that the ocean heat flux may already be influencing ice dynamics in the marine-based sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The marine-based sector could be adversely impacted by ongoing warming in the Southern Ocean, and this process may be conducive to destabilization.

Ex Situ Culturing Experiments Revealed Psychrophilic Hydrogentrophic Methanogenesis Being the Potential Dominant Methane-Producing Pathway in Subglacial Sediment in Larsemann Hills, Antarctic

It was recognized only recently that subglacial ecosystems support considerable methanogenic activity, thus significantly contributing the global methane production. However, only limited knowledge is available on the physiological characteristics of this kind of methanogenic community because of the technical constraints associated with sampling and cultivation under corresponding environmental conditions. To elucidate methanogenesis beneath the glacial margin in East Antarctic Ice Sheet, we took an integrated approach that included cultivation of microbes associated with the sediment samples in the lab and analysis of mcrA gene therein. After 7 months of incubation, the highest rate of methanogenesis [398 (pmol/day)/gram] was observed at 1°C on a supply of H₂. The rates of methanogenesis were lower on acetate or unamended substrate than on H₂. The rates on these two substrates increased when the temperature was raised. Methanomicrobiales predominated before and after prolonged incubation, regardless whether H₂, acetate, or unamended substrate were the energy source. Therefore, it was inferred that psychrophilic hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis was the primary methane-producing pathway in the subglacial ecosystem we sampled. These findings highlight the effects of temperature and substrate on potential methanogenesis in the subglacial sediment of this area, and may help us for a better estimation on the Antarctica methane production in a changing climate.