Constructing minimal models for complex system dynamics

Negative feedback systems for modelling NF-κB transcription factor oscillatory activity

Low-dimensional negative feedback systems (NFSs) were developed within a signal flow model to describe the oscillatory activities of NF-κB caused by interactions with its inhibitor IκBα. The NFSs were established as 3rd- and 4th-order linear systems containing unperturbed and perturbed negative feedback (NF) loops with constant or time-varying NF strengths and a feed-forward loop. NF-related analytical solutions to the NFSs representing the time courses of NF-κB and IκBα were determined and their exact mathematical relationship was found. The NFS's parameters were determined to fit the experimental time courses of NF-κB in TNF-α-stimulated embryonic fibroblasts, rela-/- embryonic fibroblasts reconstituted with RelA, C9L cells, GFP-p65 knock-in embryonic fibroblasts and embryogenic fibroblasts lacking Iκβ and IκBε, LPS-stimulated IC-21 macrophages treated or not with DCPA, and anti-IgM-stimulated DT40 B-lymphocytes. The unperturbed and perturbed NFSs describing the above biosystems generated isochronous and non-isochronous solutions, depending on a constant or time-varying NF strength, respectively. The oscillation period of the NF-coupled solutions, the phase difference between them and the time delays in the appearance of cytoplasmic IκBα after stimulation of NF-κB were determined. A significant divergence between the IκBα solutions to the NFSs and the IκBα experimental courses led to a rejection of the NF coupling between NF-κB and IκBα in the above biosystems. It was shown that neither the linearity nor the low dimensionality of the NFSs altered the NF relationship and the divergence between the IκBα solutions to the NFS and IκBα experimental time courses. Although the NF relationship between IκBα and NF-κB was not confirmed in all the experimental data analyzed, delayed negative feedback was found in some cases.

An integrative dynamical perspective for graph theory and the analysis of complex networks

Built upon the shoulders of graph theory, the field of complex networks has become a central tool for studying real systems across various fields of research. Represented as graphs, different systems can be studied using the same analysis methods, which allows for their comparison. Here, we challenge the widespread idea that graph theory is a universal analysis tool, uniformly applicable to any kind of network data. Instead, we show that many classical graph metrics-including degree, clustering coefficient, and geodesic distance-arise from a common hidden propagation model: the discrete cascade. From this perspective, graph metrics are no longer regarded as combinatorial measures of the graph but as spatiotemporal properties of the network dynamics unfolded at different temporal scales. Once graph theory is seen as a model-based (and not a purely data-driven) analysis tool, we can freely or intentionally replace the discrete cascade by other canonical propagation models and define new network metrics. This opens the opportunity to design-explicitly and transparently-dedicated analyses for different types of real networks by choosing a propagation model that matches their individual constraints. In this way, we take stand that network topology cannot always be abstracted independently from network dynamics but shall be jointly studied, which is key for the interpretability of the analyses. The model-based perspective here proposed serves to integrate into a common context both the classical graph analysis and the more recent network metrics defined in the literature which were, directly or indirectly, inspired by propagation phenomena on networks.

Efficient parameter inference in networked dynamical systems via steady states: A surrogate objective function approach integrating mean-field and nonlinear least squares

In networked dynamical systems, inferring governing parameters is crucial for predicting nodal dynamics, such as gene expression levels, species abundance, or population density. While many parameter estimation techniques rely on time-series data, particularly systems that converge over extreme time ranges, only noisy steady-state data is available, requiring a new approach to infer dynamical parameters from noisy observations of steady states. However, the traditional optimization process is computationally demanding, requiring repeated simulation of coupled ordinary differential equations. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a surrogate objective function that leverages decoupled equations to compute steady states, significantly reducing computational complexity. Furthermore, by optimizing the surrogate objective function, we obtain steady states that more accurately approximate the ground truth than noisy observations and predict future equilibria when topology changes. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method across ecological, gene regulatory, and epidemic networks. Our approach provides an efficient and effective way to estimate parameters from steady-state data and has the potential to improve predictions in networked dynamical systems.

Does the brain behave like a (complex) network? I. Dynamics

Graph theory is now becoming a standard tool in system-level neuroscience. However, endowing observed brain anatomy and dynamics with a complex network structure does not entail that the brain actually works as a network. Asking whether the brain behaves as a network means asking whether network properties count. From the viewpoint of neurophysiology and, possibly, of brain physics, the most substantial issues a network structure may be instrumental in addressing relate to the influence of network properties on brain dynamics and to whether these properties ultimately explain some aspects of brain function. Here, we address the dynamical implications of complex network, examining which aspects and scales of brain activity may be understood to genuinely behave as a network. To do so, we first define the meaning of networkness, and analyse some of its implications. We then examine ways in which brain anatomy and dynamics can be endowed with a network structure and discuss possible ways in which network structure may be shown to represent a genuine organisational principle of brain activity, rather than just a convenient description of its anatomy and dynamics.

Fundamental patterns of signal propagation in complex networks

Various disasters stem from minor perturbations, such as the spread of infectious diseases and cascading failure in power grids. Analyzing perturbations is crucial for both theoretical and application fields. Previous researchers have proposed basic propagation patterns for perturbation and explored the impact of basic network motifs on the collective response to these perturbations. However, the current framework is limited in its ability to decouple interactions and, therefore, cannot analyze more complex structures. In this article, we establish an effective, robust, and powerful propagation framework under a general dynamic model. This framework reveals classical and dense network motifs that exert critical acceleration on signal propagation, often reducing orders of magnitude compared with conclusions generated by previous work. Moreover, our framework provides a new approach to understand the fundamental principles of complex systems and the negative feedback mechanism, which is of great significance for researching system controlling and network resilience.

Generalized network density matrices for analysis of multiscale functional diversity

The network density matrix formalism allows for describing the dynamics of information on top of complex structures and it has been successfully used to analyze, e.g., a system's robustness, perturbations, coarse-graining multilayer networks, characterization of emergent network states, and performing multiscale analysis. However, this framework is usually limited to diffusion dynamics on undirected networks. Here, to overcome some limitations, we propose an approach to derive density matrices based on dynamical systems and information theory, which allows for encapsulating a much wider range of linear and nonlinear dynamics and richer classes of structure, such as directed and signed ones. We use our framework to study the response to local stochastic perturbations of synthetic and empirical networks, including neural systems consisting of excitatory and inhibitory links and gene-regulatory interactions. Our findings demonstrate that topological complexity does not necessarily lead to functional diversity, i.e., the complex and heterogeneous response to stimuli or perturbations. Instead, functional diversity is a genuine emergent property which cannot be deduced from the knowledge of topological features such as heterogeneity, modularity, the presence of asymmetries, and dynamical properties of a system.

Statistical inference links data and theory in network science

The number of network science applications across many different fields has been rapidly increasing. Surprisingly, the development of theory and domain-specific applications often occur in isolation, risking an effective disconnect between theoretical and methodological advances and the way network science is employed in practice. Here we address this risk constructively, discussing good practices to guarantee more successful applications and reproducible results. We endorse designing statistically grounded methodologies to address challenges in network science. This approach allows one to explain observational data in terms of generative models, naturally deal with intrinsic uncertainties, and strengthen the link between theory and applications.

Theoretical models and structures recovered from measured data serve for analysis of complex networks. The authors discuss here existing gaps between theoretical methods and real-world applied networks, and potential ways to improve the interplay between theory and applications.

The structure inference of flocking systems based on the trajectories

The interaction between the swarm individuals affects the dynamic behavior of the swarm, but it is difficult to obtain directly from outside observation. Therefore, the problem we focus on is inferring the structure of the interactions in the swarm from the individual behavior trajectories. Similar inference problems that existed in network science are named network reconstruction or network inference. It is a fundamental problem pervading research on complex systems. In this paper, a new method, called Motion Trajectory Similarity, is developed for inferring direct interactions from the motion state of individuals in the swarm. It constructs correlations by combining the similarity of the motion trajectories of each cross section of the time series, in which individuals with highly similar motion states are more likely to interact with each other. Experiments on the flocking systems demonstrate that our method can produce a reliable interaction inference and outperform traditional network inference methods. It can withstand a high level of noise and time delay introduced into flocking models, as well as parameter variation in the flocking system, to achieve robust reconstruction. The proposed method provides a new perspective for inferring the interaction structure of a swarm, which helps us to explore the mechanisms of collective movement in swarms and paves the way for developing the flocking models that can be quantified and predicted.

Autonomous inference of complex network dynamics from incomplete and noisy data

The availability of empirical data that capture the structure and behaviour of complex networked systems has been greatly increased in recent years; however, a versatile computational toolbox for unveiling a complex system's nodal and interaction dynamics from data remains elusive. Here we develop a two-phase approach for the autonomous inference of complex network dynamics, and its effectiveness is demonstrated by the tests of inferring neuronal, genetic, social and coupled oscillator dynamics on various synthetic and real networks. Importantly, the approach is robust to incompleteness and noises, including low resolution, observational and dynamical noises, missing and spurious links, and dynamical heterogeneity. We apply the two-phase approach to infer the early spreading dynamics of influenza A flu on the worldwide airline network, and the inferred dynamical equation can also capture the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome and coronavirus disease 2019. These findings together offer an avenue to discover the hidden microscopic mechanisms of a broad array of real networked systems.

DNF: A differential network flow method to identify rewiring drivers for gene regulatory networks

Differential network analysis has become an important approach in identifying driver genes in development and disease. However, most studies capture only local features of the underlying gene-regulatory network topology. These approaches are vulnerable to noise and other changes which mask driver-gene activity. Therefore, methods are urgently needed which can separate the impact of true regulatory elements from stochastic changes and downstream effects. We propose the differential network flow (DNF) method to identify key regulators of progression in development or disease. Given the network representation of consecutive biological states, DNF quantifies the essentiality of each node by differences in the distribution of network flow, which are capable of capturing comprehensive topological differences from local to global feature domains. DNF achieves more accurate driver-gene identification than other state-of-the-art methods when applied to four human datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas and three single-cell RNA-seq datasets of murine neural and hematopoietic differentiation. Furthermore, we predict key regulators of crosstalk between separate networks underlying both neuronal differentiation and the progression of neurodegenerative disease, among which APP is predicted as a driver gene of neural stem cell differentiation. Our method is a new approach for quantifying the essentiality of genes across networks of different biological states.

Special Issue “Computational Social Science”

The last centuries have seen a great surge in our understanding and control of “simple” physical,chemical, and biological processes through data analysis and the mathematical modeling of theirunderlying dynamics [...]

Towards perturbation prediction of biological networks using deep learning

The mapping of the physical interactions between biochemical entities enables quantitative analysis of dynamic biological living systems. While developing a precise dynamical model on biological entity interaction is still challenging due to the limitation of kinetic parameter detection of the underlying biological system. This challenge promotes the needs of topology-based models to predict biochemical perturbation patterns. Pure topology-based model, however, is limited on the scale and heterogeneity of biological networks. Here we propose a learning based model that adopts graph convolutional networks to learn the implicit perturbation pattern factors and thus enhance the perturbation pattern prediction on the basic topology model. Our experimental studies on 87 biological models show an average of 73% accuracy on perturbation pattern prediction and outperforms the best topology-based model by 7%, indicating that the graph-driven neural network model is robust and beneficial for accurate prediction of the perturbation spread modeling and giving an inspiration of the implementation of the deep neural networks on biological network modeling.

Effects of Population Dynamics on Establishment of a Restriction-Modification System in a Bacterial Host

In vivo dynamics of protein levels in bacterial cells depend on both intracellular regulation and relevant population dynamics. Such population dynamics effects, e.g., interplay between cell and plasmid division rates, are, however, often neglected in modeling gene expression regulation. Including them in a model introduces additional parameters shared by the dynamical equations, which can significantly increase dimensionality of the parameter inference. We here analyse the importance of these effects, on a case of bacterial restriction-modification (R-M) system. We redevelop our earlier minimal model of this system gene expression regulation, based on a thermodynamic and dynamic system modeling framework, to include the population dynamics effects. To resolve the problem of effective coupling of the dynamical equations, we propose a "mean-field-like" procedure, which allows determining only part of the parameters at a time, by separately fitting them to expression dynamics data of individual molecular species. We show that including the interplay between kinetics of cell division and plasmid replication is necessary to explain the experimental measurements. Moreover, neglecting population dynamics effects can lead to falsely identifying non-existent regulatory mechanisms. Our results call for advanced methods to reverse-engineer intracellular regulation from dynamical data, which would also take into account the population dynamics effects.

Predicting perturbation patterns from the topology of biological networks

High-throughput technologies, offering an unprecedented wealth of quantitative data underlying the makeup of living systems, are changing biology. Notably, the systematic mapping of the relationships between biochemical entities has fueled the rapid development of network biology, offering a suitable framework to describe disease phenotypes and predict potential drug targets. However, our ability to develop accurate dynamical models remains limited, due in part to the limited knowledge of the kinetic parameters underlying these interactions. Here, we explore the degree to which we can make reasonably accurate predictions in the absence of the kinetic parameters. We find that simple dynamically agnostic models are sufficient to recover the strength and sign of the biochemical perturbation patterns observed in 87 biological models for which the underlying kinetics are known. Surprisingly, a simple distance-based model achieves 65% accuracy. We show that this predictive power is robust to topological and kinetic parameter perturbations, and we identify key network properties that can increase up to 80% the recovery rate of the true perturbation patterns. We validate our approach using experimental data on the chemotactic pathway in bacteria, finding that a network model of perturbation spreading predicts with ∼80% accuracy the directionality of gene expression and phenotype changes in knock-out and overproduction experiments. These findings show that the steady advances in mapping out the topology of biochemical interaction networks opens avenues for accurate perturbation spread modeling, with direct implications for medicine and drug development.

A Bayesian approach to estimating hidden variables as well as missing and wrong molecular interactions in ordinary differential equation-based mathematical models

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are a popular approach to quantitatively model molecular networks based on biological knowledge. However, such knowledge is typically restricted. Wrongly modelled biological mechanisms as well as relevant external influence factors that are not included into the model are likely to manifest in major discrepancies between model predictions and experimental data. Finding the exact reasons for such observed discrepancies can be quite challenging in practice. In order to address this issue, we suggest a Bayesian approach to estimate hidden influences in ODE-based models. The method can distinguish between exogenous and endogenous hidden influences. Thus, we can detect wrongly specified as well as missed molecular interactions in the model. We demonstrate the performance of our Bayesian dynamic elastic-net with several ordinary differential equation models from the literature, such as human JAK-STAT signalling, information processing at the erythropoietin receptor, isomerization of liquid α-Pinene, G protein cycling in yeast and UV-B triggered signalling in plants. Moreover, we investigate a set of commonly known network motifs and a gene-regulatory network. Altogether our method supports the modeller in an algorithmic manner to identify possible sources of errors in ODE-based models on the basis of experimental data.

Optimal information networks: Application for data-driven integrated health in populations

Development of composite indicators for integrated health in populations typically relies on a priori assumptions rather than model-free, data-driven evidence. Traditional variable selection processes tend not to consider relatedness and redundancy among variables, instead considering only individual correlations. In addition, a unified method for assessing integrated health statuses of populations is lacking, making systematic comparison among populations impossible. We propose the use of maximum entropy networks (MENets) that use transfer entropy to assess interrelatedness among selected variables considered for inclusion in a composite indicator. We also define optimal information networks (OINs) that are scale-invariant MENets, which use the information in constructed networks for optimal decision-making. Health outcome data from multiple cities in the United States are applied to this method to create a systemic health indicator, representing integrated health in a city.

Dynamic patterns of information flow in complex networks

Although networks are extensively used to visualize information flow in biological, social and technological systems, translating topology into dynamic flow continues to challenge us, as similar networks exhibit fundamentally different flow patterns, driven by different interaction mechanisms. To uncover a network’s actual flow patterns, here we use a perturbative formalism, analytically tracking the contribution of all nodes/paths to the flow of information, exposing the rules that link structure and dynamic information flow for a broad range of nonlinear systems. We find that the diversity of flow patterns can be mapped into a single universal function, characterizing the interplay between the system’s topology and its dynamics, ultimately allowing us to identify the network’s main arteries of information flow. Counter-intuitively, our formalism predicts a family of frequently encountered dynamics where the flow of information avoids the hubs, favoring the network’s peripheral pathways, a striking disparity between structure and dynamics.

Complex networks are a useful tool to investigate spreading processes but topology alone is insufficient to predict information flow. Here the authors propose a measure of information flow and predict its behavior from the interplay between structure and dynamics.

Ensemble Modeling Approach Targeting Heterogeneous RNA-Seq data: Application to Melanoma Pseudogenes

We studied the transcriptome landscape of skin cutaneous melanoma (SKCM) using 103 primary tumor samples from TCGA, and measured the expression levels of both protein coding genes and non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs). In particular, we emphasized pseudogenes potentially relevant to this cancer. While cataloguing the profiles based on the known biotypes, all the employed RNA-Seq methods generated just a small consensus of significant biotypes. We thus designed an approach to reconcile the profiles from all methods following a simple strategy: we selected genes that were confirmed as differentially expressed by the ensemble predictions obtained in a regression model. The main advantages of this approach are: 1) Selection of a high-confidence gene set identifying relevant pathways; 2) Use of a regression model whose covariates embed all method-driven outcomes to predict an averaged profile; 3) Method-specific assessment of prediction power and significance. Furthermore, the approach can be generalized to any biological system for which noisy RNA-Seq profiles are computed. As our analyses concerned bio-annotations of both high-quality protein coding genes and ncRNAs, we considered the associations between pseudogenes and parental genes (targets). Among the candidate targets that were validated, we identified PINK1, which is studied in patients with Parkinson and cancer (especially melanoma).

Universal framework for edge controllability of complex networks

Dynamical processes occurring on the edges in complex networks are relevant to a variety of real-world situations. Despite recent advances, a framework for edge controllability is still required for complex networks of arbitrary structure and interaction strength. Generalizing a previously introduced class of processes for edge dynamics, the switchboard dynamics, and exploit- ing the exact controllability theory, we develop a universal framework in which the controllability of any node is exclusively determined by its local weighted structure. This framework enables us to identify a unique set of critical nodes for control, to derive analytic formulas and articulate efficient algorithms to determine the exact upper and lower controllability bounds, and to evaluate strongly structural controllability of any given network. Applying our framework to a large number of model and real-world networks, we find that the interaction strength plays a more significant role in edge controllability than the network structure does, due to a vast range between the bounds determined mainly by the interaction strength. Moreover, transcriptional regulatory networks and electronic circuits are much more strongly structurally controllable (SSC) than other types of real-world networks, directed networks are more SSC than undirected networks, and sparse networks are typically more SSC than dense networks.

A universal indicator of critical state transitions in noisy complex networked systems

Critical transition, a phenomenon that a system shifts suddenly from one state to another, occurs in many real-world complex networks. We propose an analytical framework for exactly predicting the critical transition in a complex networked system subjected to noise effects. Our prediction is based on the characteristic return time of a simple one-dimensional system derived from the original higher-dimensional system. This characteristic time, which can be easily calculated using network data, allows us to systematically separate the respective roles of dynamics, noise and topology of the underlying networked system. We find that the noise can either prevent or enhance critical transitions, playing a key role in compensating the network structural defect which suffers from either internal failures or environmental changes, or both. Our analysis of realistic or artificial examples reveals that the characteristic return time is an effective indicator for forecasting the sudden deterioration of complex networks.

Analysis and application of neuronal network controllability and observability

Controllability and observability analyses are important prerequisite for designing suitable neural control strategy, which can help lower the efforts required to control and observe the system dynamics. First, 3-neuron motifs including the excitatory motif, the inhibitory motif, and the mixed motif are constructed to investigate the effects of single neuron and synaptic dynamics on network controllability (observability). Simulation results demonstrate that for networks with the same topological structure, the controllability (observability) of the node always changes if the properties of neurons and synaptic coupling strengths vary. Besides, the inhibitory networks are more controllable (observable) than the excitatory networks when the coupling strengths are the same. Then, the numerically determined controllability results of 3-neuron excitatory motifs are generalized to the desynchronization control of the modular motif network. The control energy and neuronal synchrony measure indexes are used to quantify the controllability of each node in the modular network. The best driver node obtained in this way is the same as the deduced one from motif analysis.

Molecular stripping, targets and decoys as modulators of oscillations in the NF-κB/IκBα/DNA genetic network

Eukaryotic transcription factors in the NF-κB family are central components of an extensive genetic network that activates cellular responses to inflammation and to a host of other external stressors. This network consists of feedback loops that involve the inhibitor IκBα, numerous downstream functional targets, and still more numerous binding sites that do not appear to be directly functional. Under steady stimulation, the regulatory network of NF-κB becomes oscillatory, and temporal patterns of NF-κB pulses appear to govern the patterns of downstream gene expression needed for immune response. Understanding how the information from external stress passes to oscillatory signals and is then ultimately relayed to gene expression is a general issue in systems biology. Recently, in vitro kinetic experiments as well as molecular simulations suggest that active stripping of NF-κB by IκBα from its binding sites can modify the traditional systems biology view of NF-κB/IκBα gene circuits. In this work, we revise the commonly adopted minimal model of the NF-κB regulatory network to account for the presence of the large number of binding sites for NF-κB along with dissociation from these sites that may proceed either by passive unbinding or by active molecular stripping. We identify regimes where the kinetics of target and decoy unbinding and molecular stripping enter a dynamic tug of war that may either compensate each other or amplify nuclear NF-κB activity, leading to distinct oscillatory patterns. Our finding that decoys and stripping play a key role in shaping the NF-κB oscillations suggests strategies to control NF-κB responses by introducing artificial decoys therapeutically.

Universal resilience patterns in complex networks

Resilience, a system's ability to adjust its activity to retain its basic functionality when errors, failures and environmental changes occur, is a defining property of many complex systems. Despite widespread consequences for human health, the economy and the environment, events leading to loss of resilience--from cascading failures in technological systems to mass extinctions in ecological networks--are rarely predictable and are often irreversible. These limitations are rooted in a theoretical gap: the current analytical framework of resilience is designed to treat low-dimensional models with a few interacting components, and is unsuitable for multi-dimensional systems consisting of a large number of components that interact through a complex network. Here we bridge this theoretical gap by developing a set of analytical tools with which to identify the natural control and state parameters of a multi-dimensional complex system, helping us derive effective one-dimensional dynamics that accurately predict the system's resilience. The proposed analytical framework allows us systematically to separate the roles of the system's dynamics and topology, collapsing the behaviour of different networks onto a single universal resilience function. The analytical results unveil the network characteristics that can enhance or diminish resilience, offering ways to prevent the collapse of ecological, biological or economic systems, and guiding the design of technological systems resilient to both internal failures and environmental changes.

Circular analysis in complex stochastic systems

Ruling out observations can lead to wrong models. This danger occurs unwillingly when one selects observations, experiments, simulations or time-series based on their outcome. In stochastic processes, conditioning on the future outcome biases all local transition probabilities and makes them consistent with the selected outcome. This circular self-consistency leads to models that are inconsistent with physical reality. It is also the reason why models built solely on macroscopic observations are prone to this fallacy.