Genomic prediction unifies animal and plant breeding programs to form platforms for biological discovery

Phenotyping, genome-wide dissection, and prediction of maize root architecture for temperate adaptability

Root System Architecture (RSA) plays an essential role in influencing maize yield by enhancing anchorage and nutrient uptake. Analyzing maize RSA dynamics holds potential for ideotype-based breeding and prediction, given the limited understanding of the genetic basis of RSA in maize. Here, we obtained 16 root morphology-related traits (R-traits), 7 weight-related traits (W-traits), and 108 slice-related microphenotypic traits (S-traits) from the meristem, elongation, and mature zones by cross-sectioning primary, crown, and lateral roots from 316 maize lines. Significant differences were observed in some root traits between tropical/subtropical and temperate lines, such as primary and total root diameters, root lengths, and root area. Additionally, root anatomy data were integrated with genome-wide association study (GWAS) to elucidate the genetic architecture of complex root traits. GWAS identified 809 genes associated with R-traits, 261 genes linked to W-traits, and 2577 key genes related to 108 slice-related traits. We confirm the function of a candidate gene, fucosyltransferase5 (FUT5), in regulating root development and heat tolerance in maize. The different FUT5 haplotypes found in tropical/subtropical and temperate lines are associated with primary root features and hold promising applications in molecular breeding. Furthermore, we performed machine learning prediction models of RSA using root slice traits, achieving high prediction accuracy. Collectively, our study offers a valuable tool for dissecting the genetic architecture of RSA, along with resources and predictive models beneficial for molecular design breeding and genetic enhancement.

Cropformer: An interpretable deep learning framework for crop genomic prediction

Machine learning and deep learning are extensively employed in genomic selection (GS) to expedite the identification of superior genotypes and accelerate breeding cycles. However, a significant challenge with current data-driven deep learning models in GS lies in their low robustness and poor interpretability. To address these challenges, we developed Cropformer, a deep learning framework for predicting crop phenotypes and exploring downstream tasks. This framework combines convolutional neural networks with multiple self-attention mechanisms to improve accuracy. The ability of Cropformer to predict complex phenotypic traits was extensively evaluated on more than 20 traits across five major crops: maize, rice, wheat, foxtail millet, and tomato. Evaluation results show that Cropformer outperforms other GS methods in both precision and robustness, achieving up to a 7.5% improvement in prediction accuracy compared to the runner-up model. Additionally, Cropformer enhances the analysis and mining of genes associated with traits. We identified numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with potential effects on maize phenotypic traits and revealed key genetic variations underlying these differences. Cropformer represents a significant advancement in predictive performance and gene identification, providing a powerful general tool for improving genomic design in crop breeding. Cropformer is freely accessible at https://cgris.net/cropformer.

Using genomic selection to correct pedigree errors in kiwiberry breeding

In breeding programmes, accurate estimation of breeding values is crucial for selecting superior genotypes. Traditional methods rely on phenotypic observations and pedigree information to estimate variance components and heritability. However, pedigree errors can significantly affect the accuracy of these estimates, especially in long-lived perennial vines. This study evaluates the effect of pedigree errors on breeding value predictions in kiwiberry breeding and explores the benefits of using genomic selection. We applied Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) to estimate breeding values for each genotype for a given trait. Four scenarios with varying degrees of alteration in pedigree-based relationship matrices were used to represent inaccurate relationships between genotypes. Pedigree-based breeding values were compared with genomic estimated breeding values for one vine-related and four fruit-related quantitative traits. The results showed that as the degree of altered population structure increased, the prediction accuracy of pedigree-based breeding values decreased. In contrast, genomic selection, which uses marker inheritance, maintained realised relationships between genotypes, making it a more robust method for predicting genetic merit. In kiwiberries, as in all species of the genus Actinidia, only female vines bear fruit. The genotypic merit of fruit-related traits in male genotypes can only be estimated indirectly. Marker-based predictions outperformed pedigree-based predictions, especially for genotypes without phenotypic observations, such as male siblings. This study reviewed the induced population structures and introduced genomic selection into the kiwiberry breeding programme. We demonstrated that genomic selection provides more accurate breeding values by capturing true genetic relationships and reducing the effects of misidentified relationships between individuals.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11032-025-01552-6.

A comparison of design algorithms for choosing the training population in genomic models

In contemporary breeding programs, typically genomic best linear unbiased prediction (gBLUP) models are employed to drive decisions on artificial selection. Experiments are performed to obtain responses on the units in the breeding program. Due to restrictions on the size of the experiment, an efficient experimental design must usually be found in order to optimize the training population. Classical exchange-type algorithms from optimal design theory can be employed for this purpose. This article suggests several variants for the gBLUP model and compares them to brute-force approaches from the genomics literature for various design criteria. Particular emphasis is placed on evaluating the computational runtime of algorithms along with their respective efficiencies over different sample sizes. We find that adapting classical algorithms from optimal design of experiments can help to decrease runtime, while maintaining efficiency.

Machine learning algorithms translate big data into predictive breeding accuracy

Statistical machine learning (ML) extracts patterns from extensive genomic, phenotypic, and environmental data. ML algorithms automatically identify relevant features and use cross-validation to ensure robust models and improve prediction reliability in new lines. Furthermore, ML analyses of genotype-by-environment (G×E) interactions can offer insights into the genetic factors that affect performance in specific environments. By leveraging historical breeding data, ML streamlines strategies and automates analyses to reveal genomic patterns. In this review we examine the transformative impact of big data, including multi-trait genomics, phenomics, and environmental covariables, on genomic-enabled prediction in plant breeding. We discuss how big data and ML are revolutionizing the field by enhancing prediction accuracy, deepening our understanding of G×E interactions, and optimizing breeding strategies through the analysis of extensive and diverse datasets.

Transformation of Plant Breeding Using Data Analytics and Information Technology: Innovations, Applications, and Prospective Directions

Our study focused on plant breeding, from traditional methods to the present most advanced genetic and data-driven concepts. Conventional breeding techniques, such as mass selection and cross-breeding, have been instrumental in crop improvement, although they possess inherent limitations in precision and efficiency. Advanced molecular methods allow breeders to improve crops quicker by more accurately targeting specific traits. Data analytics and information technology (IT) are crucial in modern plant breeding, providing tools for data management, analysis, and interpretation of large volumes of data from genomic, phenotypic, and environmental sources. Meanwhile, emerging technologies in machine learning, high-throughput phenotyping, and the Internet of Things (IoT) provide real-time insights into the performance and responses of plants to environmental variables, enabling precision breeding. These tools will allow breeders to select complex traits related to yield, disease resistance, and abiotic stress tolerance more precisely and effectively. Moreover, this data-driven approach will enable breeders to use resources judiciously and make crops resilient, thus contributing to sustainable agriculture. Data analytics integrated into IT will enhance traditional breeding and other key applications in sustainable agriculture, such as crop yield improvement, biofortification, and climate change adaptation. This review aims to highlight the role of interdisciplinary collaboration among breeders, data scientists, and agronomists in absorbing these technologies. Further, this review discusses the future trends that will make plant breeding even more effective with this new wave of artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and collaborative platforms, bringing new data transparency, collaboration, and predictability levels. Data and IT-based breeding will greatly contribute to future global food security and sustainable food production. Thus, creating high-performing, resource-efficient crops will be the foundation of a future agricultural vision that balances environmental care. More technological integration in plant breeding is needed for resilient and sustainable food systems to handle the growing population and changing climate challenges.

Balancing Sensitivity and Specificity Enhances Top and Bottom Ranking in Genomic Prediction of Cultivars

Genomic selection (GS) is a predictive methodology that is revolutionizing plant and animal breeding. However, the practical application of the GS methodology is challenging since a successful implementation requires a good identification of the best lines. For this reason, some approaches have been proposed to be able to select the top (or bottom) lines with more Precision. Despite the varying popularity of methods, with some being notably more efficient than others, this paper delves into the fundamentals of these techniques. We used five models/methods: (1) RC, known as the Bayesian Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (GBLUP); (2) R, which is like RC but uses a threshold; (3) RO, Regression Optimum, that leverages the RC model in its training process to fine-tune the threshold; (4) B, Threshold Bayesian Probit Binary model (TGBLUP) with a threshold of 0.5 to classify the cultivars as top or non-top; (5) BO is the TGBLUP but the threshold used is an optimal probability threshold that guarantees similar Sensitivity and Specificity. We also present a benchmark comparison of existing approaches for selecting the top (or bottom) performers, utilizing five real datasets for comprehensive analysis. For methods that necessitate a rigorous tuning process, we suggest a streamlined tuning approach that significantly decreases implementation time without notably compromising performance. Our analysis revealed that the regression optimal (RO) method outperformed other models across the five real datasets, achieving superior results in terms of the F1 score. Specifically, RO was more effective than models R, B, RC, and BO by 60.87, 42.37, 17.63, and 9.62%, respectively. When looking at the Kappa coefficient, the RO model was better than models B, BO, R, and RC by 37.46, 36.21, 52.18, and 3.95%, respectively. In terms of Sensitivity, the RO model outperformed models B, R, and RC by 145.74, 250.41, and 86.20, respectively. The second-best model was the model BO. It is important to point out that in the first stage, the BO and RO approaches train a classification and regression model, respectively, to classify the lines as the top (bottom) or not the top (not the bottom). However, both the BO and RO approaches optimize a threshold in the second stage to perform the classification of the lines that minimize the difference between the Sensitivity and Specificity. The BO and RO methods are superior for the selection of the top (or bottom) lines. For this reason, we encourage breeders to adopt these approaches to increase genetic gain in plant breeding programs.

Optimization of breeding program design through stochastic simulation with evolutionary algorithms

The effective planning and allocation of resources in modern breeding programs is a complex task. Breeding program design and operational management have a major impact on the success of a breeding program and changing parameters such as the number of selected/phenotyped/genotyped individuals in the breeding program will impact genetic gain, genetic diversity, and costs. As a result, careful assessment and balancing of design parameters is crucial, taking into account the trade-offs between different breeding goals and associated costs. In a previous study, we optimized the resource allocation strategy in a dairy cattle breeding scheme via the combination of stochastic simulations and kernel regression, aiming to maximize a target function containing genetic gain and the inbreeding rate under a given budget. However, the high number of simulations required when using the proposed kernel regression method to optimize a breeding program with many parameters weakens the effectiveness of such a method. In this work, we are proposing an optimization framework that builds on the concepts of kernel regression but additionally makes use of an evolutionary algorithm to allow for a more effective and general optimization. The key idea is to consider a set of potential parameter settings of the breeding program, evaluate their performance based on stochastic simulations, and use these outputs to derive new parameter settings to test in an iterative procedure. The evolutionary algorithm was implemented in a Snakemake workflow management system to allow for efficient scaling on large distributed computing platforms. The algorithm achieved stabilization around the same optimum with a massively reduced number of simulations. Thereby, the incorporation of class variables and accounting for a higher number of parameters in the optimization framework leads to substantially reduced computing time and better scaling for the desired optimization of a breeding program.

A consumer-oriented approach to define breeding targets for molecular breeding

Flavor is a crucial aspect of the eating experience, reflecting evolving consumer preferences for fruits with enhanced quality. Modern fruit breeding programs prioritize improving quality traits aligned with consumer tastes. However, defining fruit-quality attributes that significantly impact consumer preference is a current challenge faced by the industry and breeders. This study proposes a data-driven approach to statistically model the relationship between fruit-quality parameters and consumers' overall liking. Our primary hypothesis suggests that the interplay between fruit-quality attributes and consumer preferences may reach a critical value, serving as new empirical benchmarks for fruit quality. Using extensive historical datasets accounting for sensory, biochemical, and genomic information described in blueberry, we first demonstrated that multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) could be used to identify specific values of fruit-quality traits that significantly affect consumer perception by using nonlinear spline regressions on estimating threshold points. We harnessed genomic information and carried out genomic selection (GS) for five fruit-quality traits evaluated on the original scale and after classified via the MARS approach. This study provides a pioneering consumer-centric and data-driven approach to defining fruit-quality standards and supporting molecular breeding that has broad applications to breeding programs from any species.

Improving genomic prediction accuracy of pig reproductive traits based on genotype imputation using preselected markers with different imputation platforms

Genomic prediction has been widely applied to the pig industry and has greatly accelerated the progress of genetic improvement in pigs. With the development of sequencing technology and price reduction, more and more genotype imputation panels of pig have been investigated, providing an effective and economical method to further study the genetic variation of pig economic traits. In this study, the imputation from 80 k Single Nucleotide Polymorphism chip data of 832 Large White pigs to whole-genome sequencing genotypes was performed by Swine Imputation Server, Pig Haplotypes Reference Panel (PHARP), Animal Genotype Imputation Database and 1k-pig-genomes four thousand-pig imputation panels. Then, linkage disequilibrium (LD) pruning and genome-wide association study (GWAS) preselected markers strategies were utilised to compare the genomic prediction accuracy of the different imputation data for reproductive traits, respectively. Our results showed that the PHARP panel exhibited the best genomic prediction accuracy among the four imputation panels. Meanwhile, the genomic prediction accuracy of the imputation data can be further improved by utilising the LD pruning and GWAS preselected marker strategies. In conclusion, our study provides insights into imputation data for pig genetic breeding.

Improving polygenic prediction from summary data by learning patterns of effect sharing across multiple phenotypes

Polygenic prediction of complex trait phenotypes has become important in human genetics, especially in the context of precision medicine. Recently, mr.mash, a flexible and computationally efficient method that models multiple phenotypes jointly and leverages sharing of effects across such phenotypes to improve prediction accuracy, was introduced. However, a drawback of mr.mash is that it requires individual-level data, which are often not publicly available. In this work, we introduce mr.mash-rss, an extension of the mr.mash model that requires only summary statistics from Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) estimates from a reference panel. By using summary data, we achieve the twin goal of increasing the applicability of the mr.mash model to data sets that are not publicly available and making it scalable to biobank-size data. Through simulations, we show that mr.mash-rss is competitive with, and often outperforms, current state-of-the-art methods for single- and multi-phenotype polygenic prediction in a variety of scenarios that differ in the pattern of effect sharing across phenotypes, the number of phenotypes, the number of causal variants, and the genomic heritability. We also present a real data analysis of 16 blood cell phenotypes in the UK Biobank, showing that mr.mash-rss achieves higher prediction accuracy than competing methods for the majority of traits, especially when the data set has smaller sample size.

Efficient large-scale genomic prediction in approximate genome-based kernel model

KEY MESSAGE

Three computationally efficient algorithms of GP including RHBK, RHDK, and RHPK were developed in approximate genome-based kernel model. The drastically growing amount of genomic information contributes to increasing computational burden of genomic prediction (GP). In this study, we developed three computationally efficient algorithms of GP including RHBK, RHDK, and RHPK in approximate genome-based kernel model, which reduces dimension of genomic data via Nyström approximation and decreases the computational cost significantly thereby. According to the simulation study and real datasets, our three methods demonstrated predictive accuracy similar to or better than RHAPY, GBLUP, and rrBLUP in most cases. They also demonstrated a substantial reduction in computational time compared to GBLUP and rrBLUP in simulation. Due to their advanced computing efficiency, our three methods can be used in a wide range of application scenarios in the future.

Introducing GWAStic: a user-friendly, cross-platform solution for genome-wide association studies and genomic prediction

Motivation

Advances in genomics have created an insistent need for accessible tools that simplify complex genetic data analysis, enabling researchers across fields to harness the power of genome-wide association studies and genomic prediction. GWAStic was developed to bridge this gap, providing an intuitive platform that combines artificial intelligence with traditional statistical methods, making sophisticated genomic analysis accessible without requiring deep expertise in statistical software.

Results

We present GWAStic, an intuitive, cross-platform desktop application designed to streamline genome-wide association studies and genomic prediction for biological and medical researchers. With a user-friendly graphical interface, GWAStic integrates machine learning and traditional statistical approaches to support genetic analysis. The application accepts inputs from standard text-based Variant Call Formats and PLINK binary files, generating clear graphical outputs, including Manhattan plots, quantile-quantile plots, and genomic prediction correlation plots to enhance data visualization and analysis.

Availability and implementation

Project page: https://github.com/snowformatics/gwastic_desktop; GWAStic documentation: https://snowformatics.gitbook.io/product-docs; PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/gwastic-desktop/.

An insight into heat stress response and adaptive mechanism in cotton

The growing worldwide population is driving up demand for cotton fibers, but production is hampered by unpredictable temperature rises caused by shifting climatic conditions. Numerous research based on breeding and genomics have been conducted to increase the production of cotton in environments with high and low-temperature stress. High temperature (HT) is a major environmental stressor with global consequences, influencing several aspects of cotton plant growth and metabolism. Heat stress-induced physiological and biochemical changes are research topics, and molecular techniques are used to improve cotton plants' heat tolerance. To preserve internal balance, heat stress activates various stress-responsive processes, including repairing damaged proteins and membranes, through various molecular networks. Recent research has investigated the diverse reactions of cotton cultivars to temperature stress, indicating that cotton plant adaptation mechanisms include the accumulation of sugars, proline, phenolics, flavonoids, and heat shock proteins. To overcome the obstacles caused by heat stress, it is crucial to develop and choose heat-tolerant cotton cultivars. Food security and sustainable agriculture depend on the application of genetic, agronomic, and, biotechnological methods to lessen the impacts of heat stress on cotton crops. Cotton producers and the textile industry both benefit from increased heat tolerance. Future studies should examine the developmental responses of cotton at different growth stages, emphasize the significance of breeding heat-tolerant cultivars, and assess the biochemical, physiological, and molecular pathways involved in seed germination under high temperatures. In a nutshell, a concentrated effort is required to raise cotton's heat tolerance due to the rising global temperatures and the rise in the frequency of extreme weather occurrences. Furthermore, emerging advances in sequencing technologies have made major progress toward successfully se sequencing the complex cotton genome.

Hybrid Prediction in Horticulture Crop Breeding: Progress and Challenges

In the context of rapidly increasing population and diversified market demands, the steady improvement of yield and quality in horticultural crops has become an urgent challenge that modern breeding efforts must tackle. Heterosis, a pivotal theoretical foundation for plant breeding, facilitates the creation of superior hybrids through crossbreeding and selection among a variety of parents. However, the vast number of potential hybrids presents a significant challenge for breeders in efficiently predicting and selecting the most promising candidates. The development and refinement of effective hybrid prediction methods have long been central to research in this field. This article systematically reviews the advancements in hybrid prediction for horticultural crops, including the roles of marker-assisted breeding and genomic prediction in phenotypic forecasting. It also underscores the limitations of some predictors, like genetic distance, which do not consistently offer reliable hybrid predictions. Looking ahead, it explores the integration of phenomics with genomic prediction technologies as a means to elevate prediction accuracy within actual breeding programs.

Transcriptome-based prediction for polygenic traits in rice using different gene subsets

BACKGROUND

Transcriptome-based prediction of complex phenotypes is a relatively new statistical method that links genetic variation to phenotypic variation. The selection of large-effect genes based on a priori biological knowledge is beneficial for predicting oligogenic traits; however, such a simple gene selection method is not applicable to polygenic traits because causal genes or large-effect loci are often unknown. Here, we used several gene-level features and tested whether it was possible to select a gene subset that resulted in better predictive ability than using all genes for predicting a polygenic trait.

RESULTS

Using the phenotypic values of shoot and root traits and transcript abundances in leaves and roots of 57 rice accessions, we evaluated the predictive abilities of the transcriptome-based prediction models. Leaf transcripts predicted shoot phenotypes, such as plant height, more accurately than root transcripts, whereas root transcripts predicted root phenotypes, such as crown root length, more accurately than leaf transcripts. Furthermore, we used the following three features to train the prediction model: (1) tissue specificity of the transcripts, (2) ontology annotations, and (3) co-expression modules for selecting gene subsets. Although models trained by a gene subset often resulted in lower predictive abilities than the model trained by all genes, some gene subsets showed improved predictive ability. For example, using genes expressed in roots but not in leaves, the predictive ability for crown root diameter was improved by more than 10% (R2 = 0.59 when using all genes; R2 = 0.66, using 1,554 root-specifically expressed genes). Similarly, genes annotated as "gibberellic acid sensitivity" showed higher predictive ability than using all genes for root dry weight.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight both the possibility and difficulty of selecting an appropriate gene subset to predict polygenic traits from transcript abundance, given the current biological knowledge and information. Further integration of multiple sources of information, as well as improvements in gene characterization, may enable the selection of an optimal gene set for the prediction of polygenic phenotypes.

PNNGS, a multi-convolutional parallel neural network for genomic selection

Genomic selection (GS) can accomplish breeding faster than phenotypic selection. Improving prediction accuracy is the key to promoting GS. To improve the GS prediction accuracy and stability, we introduce parallel convolution to deep learning for GS and call it a parallel neural network for genomic selection (PNNGS). In PNNGS, information passes through convolutions of different kernel sizes in parallel. The convolutions in each branch are connected with residuals. Four different Lp loss functions train PNNGS. Through experiments, the optimal number of parallel paths for rice, sunflower, wheat, and maize is found to be 4, 6, 4, and 3, respectively. Phenotype prediction is performed on 24 cases through ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction (RRBLUP), random forests (RF), support vector regression (SVR), deep neural network genomic prediction (DNNGP), and PNNGS. Serial DNNGP and parallel PNNGS outperform the other three algorithms. On average, PNNGS prediction accuracy is 0.031 larger than DNNGP prediction accuracy, indicating that parallelism can improve the GS model. Plants are divided into clusters through principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering algorithms. The sample sizes of different clusters vary greatly, indicating that this is unbalanced data. Through stratified sampling, the prediction stability and accuracy of PNNGS are improved. When the training samples are reduced in small clusters, the prediction accuracy of PNNGS decreases significantly. Increasing the sample size of small clusters is critical to improving the prediction accuracy of GS.

Machine learning for genomic and pedigree prediction in sugarcane

Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) plays a crucial role in global sugar production; however, the efficiency of breeding programs has been hindered by its heterozygous polyploid genomes. Considering non-additive genetic effects is essential in genome prediction (GP) models of crops with highly heterozygous polyploid genomes. This study incorporates non-additive genetic effects and pedigree information using machine learning methods to track sugarcane breeding lines and enhance the prediction by assessing the degree of association between genotypes. This study measured the stalk biomass and sugar content of 297 clones from 87 families within a breeding population used in the Japanese sugarcane breeding program. Subsequently, we conducted analyses based on the marker genotypes of 33,149 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. To validate the accuracy of GP in the population, we first predicted the prediction accuracy of the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) based on a genomic relationship matrix. Prediction accuracy was assessed using two different cross-validation methods: repeated 10-fold cross-validation and leave-one-family-out cross-validation. The accuracy of GP of the first and second methods ranged from 0.36 to 0.74 and 0.15 to 0.63, respectively. Next, we compared the prediction accuracy of BLUP and two machine learning methods: random forests and simulation annealing ensemble (SAE), a newly developed machine learning method that explicitly models the interaction between variables. Both pedigree and genomic information were utilized as input in these methods. Through repeated 10-fold cross-validation, we found that the accuracy of the machine learning methods consistently surpassed that of BLUP in most cases. In leave-one-family-out cross-validation, SAE demonstrated the highest accuracy among the methods. These results underscore the effectiveness of GP in Japanese sugarcane breeding and highlight the significant potential of machine learning methods.

Haplotype-based breeding: A new insight in crop improvement

Haplotype-based breeding (HBB) is one of the cutting-edge technologies in the realm of crop improvement due to the increasing availability of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms identified by Next Generation Sequencing technologies. The complexity of the data can be decreased with fewer statistical tests and a lower probability of spurious associations by combining thousands of SNPs into a few hundred haplotype blocks. The presence of strong genomic regions in breeding lines of most crop species facilitates the use of haplotypes to improve the efficiency of genomic and marker-assisted selection. Haplotype-based breeding as a Genomic Assisted Breeding (GAB) approach harnesses the genome sequence data to pinpoint the allelic variation used to hasten the breeding cycle and circumvent the challenges associated with linkage drag. This review article demonstrates ways to identify candidate genes, superior haplotype identification, haplo-pheno analysis, and haplotype-based marker-assisted selection. The crop improvement strategies that utilize superior haplotypes will hasten the breeding progress to safeguard global food security.

Genomic selection optimization in blueberry: Data-driven methods for marker and training population design

Genomic prediction is a modern approach that uses genome-wide markers to predict the genetic merit of unphenotyped individuals. With the potential to reduce the breeding cycles and increase the selection accuracy, this tool has been designed to rank genotypes and maximize genetic gains. Despite this importance, its practical implementation in breeding programs requires critical allocation of resources for its application in a predictive framework. In this study, we integrated genetic and data-driven methods to allocate resources for phenotyping and genotyping tailored to genomic prediction. To this end, we used a historical blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosun L.) breeding dataset containing more than 3000 individuals, genotyped using probe-based target sequencing and phenotyped for three fruit quality traits over several years. Our contribution in this study is threefold: (i) for the genotyping resource allocation, the use of genetic data-driven methods to select an optimal set of markers slightly improved prediction results for all the traits; (ii) for the long-term implication, we carried out a simulation study and emphasized that data-driven method results in a slight improvement in genetic gain over 30 cycles than random marker sampling; and (iii) for the phenotyping resource allocation, we compared different optimization algorithms to select training population, showing that it can be leveraged to increase predictive performances. Altogether, we provided a data-oriented decision-making approach for breeders by demonstrating that critical breeding decisions associated with resource allocation for genomic prediction can be tackled through a combination of statistics and genetic methods.

Linking genetic markers and crop model parameters using neural networks to enhance genomic prediction of integrative traits

Introduction

Predicting the performance (yield or other integrative traits) of cultivated plants is complex because it involves not only estimating the genetic value of the candidates to selection, the interactions between the genotype and the environment (GxE) but also the epistatic interactions between genomic regions for a given trait, and the interactions between the traits contributing to the integrative trait. Classical Genomic Prediction (GP) models mostly account for additive effects and are not suitable to estimate non-additive effects such as epistasis. Therefore, the use of machine learning and deep learning methods has been previously proposed to model those non-linear effects.

Methods

In this study, we propose a type of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) called Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and compare it to two classical GP regression methods for their ability to predict an integrative trait of sorghum: aboveground fresh weight accumulation. We also suggest that the use of a crop growth model (CGM) can enhance predictions of integrative traits by decomposing them into more heritable intermediate traits.

Results

The results show that CNN outperformed both LASSO and Bayes C methods in accuracy, suggesting that CNN are better suited to predict integrative traits. Furthermore, the predictive ability of the combined CGM-GP approach surpassed that of GP without the CGM integration, irrespective of the regression method used.

Discussion

These results are consistent with recent works aiming to develop Genome-to-Phenotype models and advocate for the use of non-linear prediction methods, and the use of combined CGM-GP to enhance the prediction of crop performances.

Genomic and phenomic predictions help capture low-effect alleles promoting seed germination in oilseed rape in addition to QTL analyses

KEY MESSAGE

Phenomic prediction implemented on a large diversity set can efficiently predict seed germination, capture low-effect favorable alleles that are not revealed by GWAS and identify promising genetic resources. Oilseed rape faces many challenges, especially at the beginning of its developmental cycle. Achieving rapid and uniform seed germination could help to ensure a successful establishment and therefore enabling the crop to compete with weeds and tolerate stresses during the earliest developmental stages. The polygenic nature of seed germination was highlighted in several studies, and more knowledge is needed about low- to moderate-effect underlying loci in order to enhance seed germination effectively by improving the genetic background and incorporating favorable alleles. A total of 17 QTL were detected for seed germination-related traits, for which the favorable alleles often corresponded to the most frequent alleles in the panel. Genomic and phenomic predictions methods provided moderate-to-high predictive abilities, demonstrating the ability to capture small additive and non-additive effects for seed germination. This study also showed that phenomic prediction estimated phenotypic values closer to phenotypic values than GEBV. Finally, as the predictive ability of phenomic prediction was less influenced by the genetic structure of the panel, it is worth using this prediction method to characterize genetic resources, particularly with a view to design prebreeding populations.

Evolutionary computing to assemble standing genetic diversity and achieve long-term genetic gain

Loss of genetic diversity in elite crop breeding pools can severely limit long-term genetic gains and limit ability to make gains in new traits, like heat tolerance, that are becoming important as the climate changes. Here, we investigate and propose potential breeding program applications of optimal haplotype stacking (OHS), a selection method that retains useful diversity in the population. OHS selects sets of candidates containing, between them, haplotype segments with very high segment breeding values for the target trait. We compared the performance of OHS, a similar method called optimal population value (OPV), truncation selection on genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs), and optimal contribution selection (OCS) in stochastic simulations of recurrent selection on founder wheat genotypes. After 100 generations of intercrossing and selection, OCS and truncation selection had exhausted the genetic diversity, while considerable diversity remained in the OHS population. Gain under OHS in these simulations ultimately exceeded that from truncation selection or OCS. OHS achieved faster gains when the population size was small, with many progeny per cross. A promising hybrid strategy, involving a single cycle of OHS in the first generation followed by recurrent truncation selection, substantially improved long-term gain compared with truncation selection and performed similarly to OCS. The results of this study provide initial insights into where OHS could be incorporated into breeding programs.

Improving selection decisions with mating information by accounting for Mendelian sampling variances looking two generations ahead

BACKGROUND

Breeding programs are judged by the genetic level of animals that are used to disseminate genetic progress. These animals are typically the best ones of the population. To maximise the genetic level of very good animals in the next generation, parents that are more likely to produce top performing offspring need to be selected. The ability of individuals to produce high-performing progeny differs because of differences in their breeding values and gametic variances. Differences in gametic variances among individuals are caused by differences in heterozygosity and linkage. The use of the gametic Mendelian sampling variance has been proposed before, for use in the usefulness criterion or Index5, and in this work, we extend existing approaches by not only considering the gametic Mendelian sampling variance of individuals, but also of their potential offspring. Thus, the criteria developed in this study plan one additional generation ahead. For simplicity, we assumed that the true quantitative trait loci (QTL) effects, genetic map and the haplotypes of all animals are known.

RESULTS

In this study, we propose a new selection criterion, ExpBVSelGrOff, which describes the genetic level of selected grand-offspring that are produced by selected offspring of a particular mating. We compare our criterion with other published criteria in a stochastic simulation of an ongoing breeding program for 21 generations for proof of concept. ExpBVSelGrOff performed better than all other tested criteria, like the usefulness criterion or Index5 which have been proposed in the literature, without compromising short-term gains. After only five generations, when selection is strong (1%), selection based on ExpBVSelGrOff achieved 5.8% more commercial genetic gain and retained 25% more genetic variance without compromising inbreeding rate compared to selection based only on breeding values.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed selection criterion offers a new tool to accelerate genetic progress for contemporary genomic breeding programs. It retains more genetic variance than previously published criteria that plan less far ahead. Considering future gametic Mendelian sampling variances in the selection process also seems promising for maintaining more genetic variance.

Improving polygenic prediction from summary data by learning patterns of effect sharing across multiple phenotypes

Polygenic prediction of complex trait phenotypes has become important in human genetics, especially in the context of precision medicine. Recently, Morgante et al. introduced mr.mash, a flexible and computationally efficient method that models multiple phenotypes jointly and leverages sharing of effects across such phenotypes to improve prediction accuracy. However, a drawback of mr.mash is that it requires individual-level data, which are often not publicly available. In this work, we introduce mr.mash-rss, an extension of the mr.mash model that requires only summary statistics from Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) estimates from a reference panel. By using summary data, we achieve the twin goal of increasing the applicability of the mr.mash model to data sets that are not publicly available and making it scalable to biobank-size data. Through simulations, we show that mr.mash-rss is competitive with, and often outperforms, current state-of-the-art methods for single- and multi-phenotype polygenic prediction in a variety of scenarios that differ in the pattern of effect sharing across phenotypes, the number of phenotypes, the number of causal variants, and the genomic heritability. We also present a real data analysis of 16 blood cell phenotypes in UK Biobank, showing that mr.mash-rss achieves higher prediction accuracy than competing methods for the majority of traits, especially when the data has smaller sample size.

Fine mapping of major QTL qshgd1 for spontaneous haploid genome doubling in maize (Zea mays L.)

KEY MESSAGE

A large-effect QTL was fine mapped, which revealed 79 gene models, with 10 promising candidate genes, along with a novel inversion. In commercial maize breeding, doubled haploid (DH) technology is arguably the most efficient resource for rapidly developing novel, completely homozygous lines. However, the DH strategy, using in vivo haploid induction, currently requires the use of mutagenic agents which can be not only hazardous, but laborious. This study focuses on an alternative approach to develop DH lines-spontaneous haploid genome duplication (SHGD) via naturally restored haploid male fertility (HMF). Inbred lines A427 and Wf9, the former with high HMF and the latter with low HMF, were selected to fine-map a large-effect QTL associated with SHGD-qshgd1. SHGD alleles were derived from A427, with novel haploid recombinant groups having varying levels of the A427 chromosomal region recovered. The chromosomal region of interest is composed of 45 megabases (Mb) of genetic information on chromosome 5. Significant differences between haploid recombinant groups for HMF were identified, signaling the possibility of mapping the QTL more closely. Due to suppression of recombination from the proximity of the centromere, and a newly discovered inversion region, the associated QTL was only confined to a 25 Mb region, within which only a single recombinant was observed among ca. 9,000 BC1 individuals. Nevertheless, 79 gene models were identified within this 25 Mb region. Additionally, 10 promising candidate genes, based on RNA-seq data, are described for future evaluation, while the narrowed down genome region is accessible for straightforward introgression into elite germplasm by BC methods.

Investigating the genetic control of plant development in spring barley under speed breeding conditions

KEY MESSAGE

This study found that the genes, PPD-H1 and ELF3, control the acceleration of plant development under speed breeding, with important implications for optimizing the delivery of climate-resilient crops. Speed breeding is a tool to accelerate breeding and research programmes. Despite its success and growing popularity with breeders, the genetic basis of plant development under speed breeding remains unknown. This study explored the developmental advancements of barley genotypes under different photoperiod regimes. A subset of the HEB-25 Nested Association Mapping population was evaluated for days to heading and maturity under two contrasting photoperiod conditions: (1) Speed breeding (SB) consisting of 22 h of light and 2 h of darkness, and (2) normal breeding (NB) consisting of 16 h of light and 8 h of darkness. GWAS revealed that developmental responses under both conditions were largely controlled by two loci: PPDH-1 and ELF3. Allelic variants at these genes determine whether plants display early flowering and maturity under both conditions. At key QTL regions, domesticated alleles were associated with late flowering and maturity in NB and early flowering and maturity in SB, whereas wild alleles were associated with early flowering under both conditions. We hypothesize that this is related to the dark-dependent repression of PPD-H1 by ELF3 which might be more prominent in NB conditions. Furthermore, by comparing development under two photoperiod regimes, we derived an estimate of plasticity for the two traits. Interestingly, plasticity in development was largely attributed to allelic variation at ELF3. Our results have important implications for our understanding and optimization of speed breeding protocols particularly for introgression breeding and the design of breeding programmes to support the delivery of climate-resilient crops.

The effect of marker types and density on genomic prediction and GWAS of key performance traits in tetraploid potato

Genomic prediction and genome-wide association studies are becoming widely employed in potato key performance trait QTL identifications and to support potato breeding using genomic selection. Elite cultivars are tetraploid and highly heterozygous but also share many common ancestors and generation-spanning inbreeding events, resulting from the clonal propagation of potatoes through seed potatoes. Consequentially, many SNP markers are not in a 1:1 relationship with a single allele variant but shared over several alleles that might exert varying effects on a given trait. The impact of such redundant "diluted" predictors on the statistical models underpinning genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and genomic prediction has scarcely been evaluated despite the potential impact on model accuracy and performance. We evaluated the impact of marker location, marker type, and marker density on the genomic prediction and GWAS of five key performance traits in tetraploid potato (chipping quality, dry matter content, length/width ratio, senescence, and yield). A 762-offspring panel of a diallel cross of 18 elite cultivars was genotyped by sequencing, and markers were annotated according to a reference genome. Genomic prediction models (GBLUP) were trained on four marker subsets [non-synonymous (29,553 SNPs), synonymous (31,229), non-coding (32,388), and a combination], and robustness to marker reduction was investigated. Single-marker regression GWAS was performed for each trait and marker subset. The best cross-validated prediction correlation coefficients of 0.54, 0.75, 0.49, 0.35, and 0.28 were obtained for chipping quality, dry matter content, length/width ratio, senescence, and yield, respectively. The trait prediction abilities were similar across all marker types, with only non-synonymous variants improving yield predictive ability by 16%. Marker reduction response did not depend on marker type but rather on trait. Traits with high predictive abilities, e.g., dry matter content, reached a plateau using fewer markers than traits with intermediate-low correlations, such as yield. The predictions were unbiased across all traits, marker types, and all marker densities >100 SNPs. Our results suggest that using non-synonymous variants does not enhance the performance of genomic prediction of most traits. The major known QTLs were identified by GWAS and were reproducible across exonic and whole-genome variant sets for dry matter content, length/width ratio, and senescence. In contrast, minor QTL detection was marker type dependent.

What plant breeding may (and may not) look like in 2050?

At the turn of 2000 many authors envisioned future plant breeding. Twenty years after, which of those authors' visions became reality or not, and which ones may become so in the years to come. After two decades of debates, climate change is a "certainty," food systems shifted from maximizing farm production to reducing environmental impact, and hopes placed into GMOs are mitigated by their low appreciation by consumers. We revise herein how plant breeding may raise or reduce genetic gains based on the breeder's equation. "Accuracy of Selection" has significantly improved by many experimental-scale field and laboratory implements, but also by vulgarizing statistical models, and integrating DNA markers into selection. Pre-breeding has really promoted the increase of useful "Genetic Variance." Shortening "Recycling Time" has seen great progression, to the point that achieving a denominator equal to "1" is becoming a possibility. Maintaining high "Selection Intensity" remains the biggest challenge, since adding any technology results in a higher cost per progeny, despite the steady reduction in cost per datapoint. Furthermore, the concepts of variety and seed enterprise might change with the advent of cheaper genomic tools to monitor their use and the promotion of participatory or citizen science. The technological and societal changes influence the new generation of plant breeders, moving them further away from field work, emphasizing instead the use of genomic-based selection methods relying on big data. We envisage what skills plant breeders of tomorrow might need to address challenges, and whether their time in the field may dwindle.

Data Augmentation Enhances Plant-Genomic-Enabled Predictions

Genomic selection (GS) is revolutionizing plant breeding. However, its practical implementation is still challenging, since there are many factors that affect its accuracy. For this reason, this research explores data augmentation with the goal of improving its accuracy. Deep neural networks with data augmentation (DA) generate synthetic data from the original training set to increase the training set and to improve the prediction performance of any statistical or machine learning algorithm. There is much empirical evidence of their success in many computer vision applications. Due to this, DA was explored in the context of GS using 14 real datasets. We found empirical evidence that DA is a powerful tool to improve the prediction accuracy, since we improved the prediction accuracy of the top lines in the 14 datasets under study. On average, across datasets and traits, the gain in prediction performance of the DA approach regarding the Conventional method in the top 20% of lines in the testing set was 108.4% in terms of the NRMSE and 107.4% in terms of the MAAPE, but a worse performance was observed on the whole testing set. We encourage more empirical evaluations to support our findings.

Plant science in the age of simulation intelligence

Historically, plant and crop sciences have been quantitative fields that intensively use measurements and modeling. Traditionally, researchers choose between two dominant modeling approaches: mechanistic plant growth models or data-driven, statistical methodologies. At the intersection of both paradigms, a novel approach referred to as "simulation intelligence", has emerged as a powerful tool for comprehending and controlling complex systems, including plants and crops. This work explores the transformative potential for the plant science community of the nine simulation intelligence motifs, from understanding molecular plant processes to optimizing greenhouse control. Many of these concepts, such as surrogate models and agent-based modeling, have gained prominence in plant and crop sciences. In contrast, some motifs, such as open-ended optimization or program synthesis, still need to be explored further. The motifs of simulation intelligence can potentially revolutionize breeding and precision farming towards more sustainable food production.

Bayesian discrete lognormal regression model for genomic prediction

KEY MESSAGE

Genomic prediction models for quantitative traits assume continuous and normally distributed phenotypes. In this research, we proposed a novel Bayesian discrete lognormal regression model. Genomic selection is a powerful tool in modern breeding programs that uses genomic information to predict the performance of individuals and select those with desirable traits. It has revolutionized animal and plant breeding, as it allows breeders to identify the best candidates without labor-intensive and time-consuming phenotypic evaluations. While several statistical models have been developed, most of them have been for quantitative continuous traits and only a few for count responses. In this paper, we propose a discrete lognormal regression model in the Bayesian context, that with a Gibbs sampler to explore the corresponding posterior distribution and make the predictions. Two datasets of resistance disease is used in the wheat crop and are then evaluated against the traditional Gaussian model and a lognormal model. The results indicate the proposed model is a competitive and natural model for predicting count genomic traits.

Variation and genetic basis of mineral content in potato tubers and prospects for genomic selection

Malnutrition is a major public health concern in many parts of the world. Among other nutrients, minerals are necessary in the human diet. Potato tubers are a good source of minerals; they contribute 18% of the recommended dietary allowance of potassium; 6% of copper, phosphorus, and magnesium; and 2% of calcium and zinc. Increased public interest in improving the nutritional value of foods has prompted the evaluation of mineral content in tubers of advanced genotypes from the Texas A&M Potato Breeding Program and the investigation of the genetics underlying mineral composition in tubers. The objectives of this study were to i) assess phenotypic variation for mineral content in tubers of advanced potato genotypes, ii) identify genomic regions associated with tuber mineral content, and iii) obtain genomic-estimated breeding values. A panel of 214 advanced potato genotypes and reference varieties was phenotyped in three field environments in Texas for the content of 12 minerals in tubers and genotyped using the Infinium Illumina 22K V3 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) Array. There was significant variation between potato genotypes for all minerals evaluated except iron. As a market group, red-skinned potatoes had the highest amount of minerals, whereas russets had the lowest mineral content. Reds had significantly higher P, K, S, and Zn than russets and significantly higher P and Mg than chippers. Russets had significantly higher Ca, Mg, and Na than chippers. However, the chippers had significantly higher K than the russets. A genome-wide association study for mineral content using GWASpoly identified three quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with potassium and manganese content on chromosome 5 and two QTL associated with zinc content on chromosome 7. The loci identified will contribute to a better understanding of the genetic basis of mineral content in potatoes. Genomic-estimated breeding values for mineral macro and micronutrients in tubers obtained with StageWise will guide the selection of parents and the advancement of genotypes in the breeding program to increase mineral content in potato tubers.

Optimization of breeding program design through stochastic simulation with kernel regression

In recent years, breeding programs have increased significantly in size and complexity, with various highly interdependent parameters and many contrasting breeding goals. As a result, resource allocation in these programs has become more complex, and deriving an optimal breeding strategy has become increasingly challenging. To address this, a common practice is to reduce the optimization problem to a set of scenarios that differ only in a few parameters and can therefore be analyzed in detail. The goal of this article is to provide a framework for the numerical optimization of breeding programs that goes beyond the simple comparison of scenarios. For this, we first determine the space of potential breeding programs only limited by basic constraints like the budget and housing capacities. Subsequently, the goal is to identify the optimal breeding program by finding the parametrization that maximizes the target function by combining different breeding goals. To assess the value of the target function for a parametrization, we propose using stochastic simulations and the subsequent use of a kernel regression method to cope with the stochasticity of simulation outcomes. This procedure is performed iteratively to narrow down the most promising areas of the search space and perform more and more simulations in these areas of interest. In a simplified example applied to a dairy cattle program, our proposed framework has shown its ability to identify an optimal breeding strategy that aligns with a target function aiming at genetic gain and genetic diversity conservation limited by budget constraints.

Leveraging Single-Cell Populations to Uncover the Genetic Basis of Complex Traits

The ease and throughput of single-cell genomics have steadily improved, and its current trajectory suggests that surveying single-cell populations will become routine. We discuss the merger of quantitative genetics with single-cell genomics and emphasize how this synergizes with advantages intrinsic to plants. Single-cell population genomics provides increased detection resolution when mapping variants that control molecular traits, including gene expression or chromatin accessibility. Additionally, single-cell population genomics reveals the cell types in which variants act and, when combined with organism-level phenotype measurements, unveils which cellular contexts impact higher-order traits. Emerging technologies, notably multiomics, can facilitate the measurement of both genetic changes and genomic traits in single cells, enabling single-cell genetic experiments. The implementation of single-cell genetics will advance the investigation of the genetic architecture of complex molecular traits and provide new experimental paradigms to study eukaryotic genetics.

A dimensionality-reduction genomic prediction method without direct inverse of the genomic relationship matrix for large genomic data

KEY MESSAGE

A new genomic prediction method (RHPP) was developed via combining randomized Haseman-Elston regression (RHE-reg), PCR based on genomic information of core population, and preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) algorithm. Computational efficiency is becoming a hot issue in the practical application of genomic prediction due to the large number of data generated by the high-throughput genotyping technology. In this study, we developed a fast genomic prediction method RHPP via combining randomized Haseman-Elston regression (RHE-reg), PCR based on genomic information of core population, and preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) algorithm. The simulation results demonstrated similar prediction accuracy between RHPP and GBLUP, and significantly higher computational efficiency of the former with the increase of individuals. The results of real datasets of both bread wheat and loblolly pine demonstrated that RHPP had a similar or better predictive accuracy in most cases compared with GBLUP. In the future, RHPP may be an attractive choice for analyzing large-scale and high-dimensional data.

Realized genomic selection across generations in a reciprocal recurrent selection breeding program of Eucalyptus hybrids

Introduction

Genomic selection (GS) experiments in forest trees have largely reported estimates of predictive abilities from cross-validation among individuals in the same breeding generation. In such conditions, no effects of recombination, selection, drift, and environmental changes are accounted for. Here, we assessed the effectively realized predictive ability (RPA) for volume growth at harvest age by GS across generations in an operational reciprocal recurrent selection (RRS) program of hybrid Eucalyptus.

Methods

Genomic best linear unbiased prediction with additive (GBLUP_G), additive plus dominance (GBLUP_G+D), and additive single-step (HBLUP) models were trained with different combinations of growth data of hybrids and pure species individuals (N = 17,462) of the G1 generation, 1,944 of which were genotyped with ~16,000 SNPs from SNP arrays. The hybrid G2 progeny trial (HPT267) was the GS target, with 1,400 selection candidates, 197 of which were genotyped still at the seedling stage, and genomically predicted for their breeding and genotypic values at the operational harvest age (6 years). Seedlings were then grown to harvest and measured, and their pedigree-based breeding and genotypic values were compared to their originally predicted genomic counterparts.

Results

Genomic RPAs ≥0.80 were obtained as the genetic relatedness between G1 and G2 increased, especially when the direct parents of selection candidates were used in training. GBLUP_G+D reached RPAs ≥0.70 only when hybrid or pure species data of G1 were included in training. HBLUP was only marginally better than GBLUP. Correlations ≥0.80 were obtained between pedigree and genomic individual ranks. Rank coincidence of the top 2.5% selections was the highest for GBLUP_G (45% to 60%) compared to GBLUP_G+D. To advance the pure species RRS populations, GS models were best when trained on pure species than hybrid data, and HBLUP yielded ~20% higher predictive abilities than GBLUP, but was not better than ABLUP for ungenotyped trees.

Discussion

We demonstrate that genomic data effectively enable accurate ranking of eucalypt hybrid seedlings for their yet-to-be observed volume growth at harvest age. Our results support a two-stage GS approach involving family selection by average genomic breeding value, followed by within-top-families individual GS, significantly increasing selection intensity, optimizing genotyping costs, and accelerating RRS breeding.

Predictor bias in genomic and phenomic selection

KEY MESSAGE

NIRS of wheat grains as phenomic predictors for grain yield show inflated prediction ability and are biased toward grain protein content. Estimating the breeding value of individuals using genome-wide marker data (genomic prediction) is currently one of the most important drivers of breeding progress in major crops. Recently, phenomic technologies, including remote sensing and aerial hyperspectral imaging of plant canopies, have made it feasible to predict the breeding value of individuals in the absence of genetic marker data. This is commonly referred to as phenomic prediction. Hyperspectral measurements in the form of near-infrared spectroscopy have been used since the 1980 s to predict compositional parameters of harvest products. Moreover, in recent studies NIRS from grains was used to predict grain yield. The same studies showed that phenomic prediction can outperform genomic prediction for grain yield. The genome is static and not environment dependent, thereby limiting genomic prediction ability. Gene expression is tissue specific and differs under environmental influences, leading to a tissue- and environment-specific phenome, potentially explaining the higher predictive ability of phenomic prediction. Here, we compare genomic prediction and phenomic prediction from hyperspectral measurements of wheat grains for the prediction of a variety of traits including grain yield. We show that phenomic predictions outperform genomic prediction for some traits. However, phenomic predictions are biased toward the information present in the predictor. Future studies on this topic should investigate whether population parameters are retained in phenomic prediction as they are in genomic prediction. Furthermore, we find that unbiased phenomic prediction abilities are considerably lower than previously reported and recommend a method to circumvent this issue.

Haplotype blocks for genomic prediction: a comparative evaluation in multiple crop datasets

In modern plant breeding, genomic selection is becoming the gold standard for selection of superior genotypes. The basis for genomic prediction models is a set of phenotyped lines along with their genotypic profile. With high marker density and linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers, genotype data in breeding populations tends to exhibit considerable redundancy. Therefore, interest is growing in the use of haplotype blocks to overcome redundancy by summarizing co-inherited features. Moreover, haplotype blocks can help to capture local epistasis caused by interacting loci. Here, we compared genomic prediction methods that either used single SNPs or haplotype blocks with regards to their prediction accuracy for important traits in crop datasets. We used four published datasets from canola, maize, wheat and soybean. Different approaches to construct haplotype blocks were compared, including blocks based on LD, physical distance, number of adjacent markers and the algorithms implemented in the software "Haploview" and "HaploBlocker". The tested prediction methods included Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP), Extended GBLUP to account for additive by additive epistasis (EGBLUP), Bayesian LASSO and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) regression. We found improved prediction accuracy in some traits when using haplotype blocks compared to SNP-based predictions, however the magnitude of improvement was very trait- and model-specific. Especially in settings with low marker density, haplotype blocks can improve genomic prediction accuracy. In most cases, physically large haplotype blocks yielded a strong decrease in prediction accuracy. Especially when prediction accuracy varies greatly across different prediction models, prediction based on haplotype blocks can improve prediction accuracy of underperforming models. However, there is no "best" method to build haplotype blocks, since prediction accuracy varied considerably across methods and traits. Hence, criteria used to define haplotype blocks should not be viewed as fixed biological parameters, but rather as hyperparameters that need to be adjusted for every dataset.

Metabolomic-genomic prediction can improve prediction accuracy of breeding values for malting quality traits in barley

BACKGROUND

Metabolomics measures an intermediate stage between genotype and phenotype, and may therefore be useful for breeding. Our objectives were to investigate genetic parameters and accuracies of predicted breeding values for malting quality (MQ) traits when integrating both genomic and metabolomic information. In total, 2430 plots of 562 malting spring barley lines from three years and two locations were included. Five MQ traits were measured in wort produced from each plot. Metabolomic features used were 24,018 nuclear magnetic resonance intensities measured on each wort sample. Methods for statistical analyses were genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and metabolomic-genomic best linear unbiased prediction (MGBLUP). Accuracies of predicted breeding values were compared using two cross-validation strategies: leave-one-year-out (LOYO) and leave-one-line-out (LOLO), and the increase in accuracy from the successive inclusion of first, metabolomic data on the lines in the validation population (VP), and second, both metabolomic data and phenotypes on the lines in the VP, was investigated using the linear regression (LR) method.

RESULTS

For all traits, we saw that the metabolome-mediated heritability was substantial. Cross-validation results showed that, in general, prediction accuracies from MGBLUP and GBLUP were similar when phenotypes and metabolomic data were recorded on the same plots. Results from the LR method showed that for all traits, except one, accuracy of MGBLUP increased when including metabolomic data on the lines of the VP, and further increased when including also phenotypes. However, in general the increase in accuracy of MGBLUP when including both metabolomic data and phenotypes on lines of the VP was similar to the increase in accuracy of GBLUP when including phenotypes on the lines of the VP. Therefore, we found that, when metabolomic data were included on the lines of the VP, accuracies substantially increased for lines without phenotypic records, but they did not increase much when phenotypes were already known.

CONCLUSIONS

MGBLUP is a useful approach to combine phenotypic, genomic and metabolomic data for predicting breeding values for MQ traits. We believe that our results have significant implications for practical breeding of barley and potentially many other species.

Genomic prediction in hybrid breeding: II. Reciprocal recurrent genomic selection with full-sib and half-sib families

KEY MESSAGE

Genomic prediction of GCA effects based on model training with full-sib rather than half-sib families yields higher short- and long-term selection gain in reciprocal recurrent genomic selection for hybrid breeding, if SCA effects are important. Reciprocal recurrent genomic selection (RRGS) is a powerful tool for ensuring sustainable selection progress in hybrid breeding. For training the statistical model, one can use half-sib (HS) or full-sib (FS) families produced by inter-population crosses of candidates from the two parent populations. Our objective was to compare HS-RRGS and FS-RRGS for the cumulative selection gain ([Formula: see text]), the genetic, GCA and SCA variances ([Formula: see text],[Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) of the hybrid population, and prediction accuracy ([Formula: see text]) for GCA effects across cycles. Using SNP data from maize and wheat, we simulated RRGS programs over 10 cycles, each consisting of four sub-cycles with genomic selection of [Formula: see text] out of 950 candidates in each parent population. Scenarios differed for heritability [Formula: see text] and the proportion [Formula: see text] of traits, training set (TS) size ([Formula: see text]), and maize vs. wheat. Curves of [Formula: see text] over selection cycles showed no crossing of both methods. If [Formula: see text] was high, [Formula: see text] was generally higher for FS-RRGS than HS-RRGS due to higher [Formula: see text]. In contrast, HS-RRGS was superior or on par with FS-RRGS, if [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] were low. [Formula: see text] showed a steeper increase and higher selection limit for scenarios with low [Formula: see text], high [Formula: see text] and large [Formula: see text]. [Formula: see text] and even more so [Formula: see text] decreased rapidly over cycles for both methods due to the high selection intensity and the role of the Bulmer effect for reducing [Formula: see text]. Since the TS for FS-RRGS can additionally be used for hybrid prediction, we recommend this method for achieving simultaneously the two major goals in hybrid breeding: population improvement and cultivar development.

Evaluating the potential of (epi)genotype-by-low pass nanopore sequencing in dairy cattle: a study on direct genomic value and methylation analysis

BACKGROUND

Genotype-by-sequencing has been proposed as an alternative to SNP genotyping arrays in genomic selection to obtain a high density of markers along the genome. It requires a low sequencing depth to be cost effective, which may increase the error at the genotype assigment. Third generation nanopore sequencing technology offers low cost sequencing and the possibility to detect genome methylation, which provides added value to genotype-by-sequencing. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of genotype-by-low pass nanopore sequencing for estimating the direct genomic value in dairy cattle, and the possibility to obtain methylation marks simultaneously.

RESULTS

Latest nanopore chemistry (LSK14 and Q20) achieved a modal base calling accuracy of 99.55%, whereas previous kit (LSK109) achieved slightly lower accuracy (99.1%). The direct genomic value accuracy from genotype-by-low pass sequencing ranged between 0.79 and 0.99, depending on the trait (milk, fat or protein yield), with a sequencing depth as low as 2 × and using the latest chemistry (LSK114). Lower sequencing depth led to biased estimates, yet with high rank correlations. The LSK109 and Q20 achieved lower accuracies (0.57-0.93). More than one million high reliable methylated sites were obtained, even at low sequencing depth, located mainly in distal intergenic (87%) and promoter (5%) regions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that the latest nanopore technology in useful in a LowPass sequencing framework to estimate direct genomic values with high reliability. It may provide advantages in populations with no available SNP chip, or when a large density of markers with a wide range of allele frequencies is needed. In addition, low pass sequencing provided nucleotide methylation status of > 1 million nucleotides at ≥ 10 × , which is an added value for epigenetic studies.

A flexible empirical Bayes approach to multivariate multiple regression, and its improved accuracy in predicting multi-tissue gene expression from genotypes

Predicting phenotypes from genotypes is a fundamental task in quantitative genetics. With technological advances, it is now possible to measure multiple phenotypes in large samples. Multiple phenotypes can share their genetic component; therefore, modeling these phenotypes jointly may improve prediction accuracy by leveraging effects that are shared across phenotypes. However, effects can be shared across phenotypes in a variety of ways, so computationally efficient statistical methods are needed that can accurately and flexibly capture patterns of effect sharing. Here, we describe new Bayesian multivariate, multiple regression methods that, by using flexible priors, are able to model and adapt to different patterns of effect sharing and specificity across phenotypes. Simulation results show that these new methods are fast and improve prediction accuracy compared with existing methods in a wide range of settings where effects are shared. Further, in settings where effects are not shared, our methods still perform competitively with state-of-the-art methods. In real data analyses of expression data in the Genotype Tissue Expression (GTEx) project, our methods improve prediction performance on average for all tissues, with the greatest gains in tissues where effects are strongly shared, and in the tissues with smaller sample sizes. While we use gene expression prediction to illustrate our methods, the methods are generally applicable to any multi-phenotype applications, including prediction of polygenic scores and breeding values. Thus, our methods have the potential to provide improvements across fields and organisms.

Genomic versus phenotypic selection to improve corn borer resistance and grain yield in maize

Introduction

The study of yield and resistance/tolerance to pest are related traits fundamental for maize breeding programs. Genomic selection (GS), which uses all marker information to calculate genomic breeding values, is presented as an emerging alternative to phenotypic and marker-assisted selections for improving complex traits controlled by many genes with small effects. Therefore, although phenotypic selection (PS) has been effective for increasing resistance and yield under high infestation with maize stem borers, higher genetic gains are expected to be obtained through GS based on the complex architecture of both traits. Our objective was to test whether GS is more effective than PS for improving resistance and/or tolerance to maize stem borers and grain yield.

Methods

For this, we compared different selection programs based on phenotype and genotypic value for a single trait, resistance or yield, and for both traits together.

Results and discussion

We obtained that GS achieved the highest genetic gain for yield, meanwhile phenotypic selection for yield was the program that achieved the highest reduction of tunnel length, but was ineffective for increasing yield. However, phenotypic or genomic selection for increased resistance may be more effective in improving both traits together; although the gains per cycle would be small for both traits.

Chromosome-level genome and population genomics provide novel insights into adaptive divergence in allopatric Eleutheronema tetradactylum

Understanding the adaptive ecological divergence provides important information for revealing biodiversity generation and maintenance. Adaptive ecology divergence in populations occurs in various environments and locations, but its genetic underpinnings remain elusive. We generated a chromosome-level genome of Eleutheronema tetradactylum (~582 Mb) and re-sequenced 50 allopatric E. tetradactylum in two independent environmental axes in China and Thailand Coastal waters as well as 11 cultured relatives. A low level of whole genome-wide diversity explained their decreased adaptive potential in the wild environment. Demographic analysis showed evidence of historically high abundance followed by a continuous distinct decline, plus signs of recent inbreeding and accumulation of deleterious mutations. Extensive signals of selective sweeps with signs of local adaptation to environmental differentiation between China and Thailand at genes related to thermal and salinity adaptation were discovered, which might be the driving factors of the geographical divergence of E. tetradactylum. Many genes and pathways subjected to strong selection under artificial breeding were associated with fatty acids and immunity (ELOVL6L, MAPK, p53/NF-kB), likely contributing to the eventual adaptation of artificial selective breeding. Our comprehensive study provided crucial genetic information for E. tetradactylum, with implications for the further conservation efforts of this threatened and ecologically valuable fish.

Underutilized legumes: nutrient status and advanced breeding approaches for qualitative and quantitative enhancement

Underutilized/orphan legumes provide food and nutritional security to resource-poor rural populations during periods of drought and extreme hunger, thus, saving millions of lives. The Leguminaceae, which is the third largest flowering plant family, has approximately 650 genera and 20,000 species and are distributed globally. There are various protein-rich accessible and edible legumes, such as soybean, cowpea, and others; nevertheless, their consumption rate is far higher than production, owing to ever-increasing demand. The growing global urge to switch from an animal-based protein diet to a vegetarian-based protein diet has also accelerated their demand. In this context, underutilized legumes offer significant potential for food security, nutritional requirements, and agricultural development. Many of the known legumes like Mucuna spp., Canavalia spp., Sesbania spp., Phaseolus spp., and others are reported to contain comparable amounts of protein, essential amino acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), dietary fiber, essential minerals and vitamins along with other bioactive compounds. Keeping this in mind, the current review focuses on the potential of discovering underutilized legumes as a source of food, feed and pharmaceutically valuable chemicals, in order to provide baseline data for addressing malnutrition-related problems and sustaining pulse needs across the globe. There is a scarcity of information about underutilized legumes and is restricted to specific geographical zones with local or traditional significance. Around 700 genera and 20,000 species remain for domestication, improvement, and mainstreaming. Significant efforts in research, breeding, and development are required to transform existing local landraces of carefully selected, promising crops into types with broad adaptability and economic viability. Different breeding efforts and the use of biotechnological methods such as micro-propagation, molecular markers research and genetic transformation for the development of underutilized crops are offered to popularize lesser-known legume crops and help farmers diversify their agricultural systems and boost their profitability.

The genomic and bioclimatic characterization of Ethiopian barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) unveils challenges and opportunities to adapt to a changing climate

The climate crisis is impacting agroecosystems and threatening food security of millions of smallholder farmers. Understanding the potential for current and future climatic adaptation of local crop agrobiodiversity may guide breeding efforts and support resilience of agriculture. Here, we combine a genomic and climatic characterization of a large collection of traditional barley varieties from Ethiopia, a staple for local smallholder farmers cropping in challenging environments. We find that the genomic diversity of barley landraces can be partially traced back to geographic and environmental diversity of the landscape. We employ a machine learning approach to model Ethiopian barley adaptation to current climate and to identify areas where its existing diversity may not be well adapted in future climate scenarios. We use this information to identify optimal trajectories of assisted migration compensating to detrimental effects of climate change, finding that Ethiopian barley diversity bears opportunities for adaptation to the climate crisis. We then characterize phenology traits in the collection in two common garden experiments in Ethiopia, using genome-wide association approaches to identify genomic loci associated with timing of flowering and maturity of the spike. We combine this information with genotype-environment associations finding that loci involved in flowering time may also explain environmental adaptation. Our data show that integrated genomic, climatic, and phenotypic characterizations of agrobiodiversity may provide breeding with actionable information to improve local adaptation in smallholder farming systems.

Preselection of QTL markers enhances accuracy of genomic selection in Norway spruce

Genomic prediction (GP) or genomic selection is a method to predict the accumulative effect of all quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in a population by estimating the realized genomic relationships between the individuals and by capturing the linkage disequilibrium between markers and QTLs. Thus, marker preselection is considered a promising method to capture Mendelian segregation effects. Using QTLs detected in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) may improve GP. Here, we performed GWAS and GP in a population with 904 clones from 32 full-sib families using a newly developed 50 k SNP Norway spruce array. Through GWAS we identified 41 SNPs associated with budburst stage (BB) and the largest effect association explained 5.1% of the phenotypic variation (PVE). For the other five traits such as growth and wood quality traits, only 2 - 13 associations were observed and the PVE of the strongest effects ranged from 1.2% to 2.0%. GP using approximately 100 preselected SNPs, based on the smallest p-values from GWAS showed the greatest predictive ability (PA) for the trait BB. For the other traits, a preselection of 2000-4000 SNPs, was found to offer the best model fit according to the Akaike information criterion being minimized. But PA-magnitudes from GP using such selections were still similar to that of GP using all markers. Analyses on both real-life and simulated data also showed that the inclusion of a large QTL SNP in the model as a fixed effect could improve PA and accuracy of GP provided that the PVE of the QTL was ≥ 2.5%.

Accuracy of Selection in Early Generations of Field Pea Breeding Increases by Exploiting the Information Contained in Correlated Traits

Accuracy of predicted breeding values (PBV) for low heritability traits may be increased in early generations by exploiting the information available in correlated traits. We compared the accuracy of PBV for 10 correlated traits with low to medium narrow-sense heritability (h2) in a genetically diverse field pea (Pisum sativum L.) population after univariate or multivariate linear mixed model (MLMM) analysis with pedigree information. In the contra-season, we crossed and selfed S1 parent plants, and in the main season we evaluated spaced plants of S0 cross progeny and S2+ (S2 or higher) self progeny of parent plants for the 10 traits. Stem strength traits included stem buckling (SB) (h2 = 0.05), compressed stem thickness (CST) (h2 = 0.12), internode length (IL) (h2 = 0.61) and angle of the main stem above horizontal at first flower (EAngle) (h2 = 0.46). Significant genetic correlations of the additive effects occurred between SB and CST (0.61), IL and EAngle (-0.90) and IL and CST (-0.36). The average accuracy of PBVs in S0 progeny increased from 0.799 to 0.841 and in S2+ progeny increased from 0.835 to 0.875 in univariate vs MLMM, respectively. An optimized mating design was constructed with optimal contribution selection based on an index of PBV for the 10 traits, and predicted genetic gain in the next cycle ranged from 1.4% (SB), 5.0% (CST), 10.5% (EAngle) and -10.5% (IL), with low achieved parental coancestry of 0.12. MLMM improved the potential genetic gain in annual cycles of early generation selection in field pea by increasing the accuracy of PBV.