Host versus flu: antibodies win a round?

Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment

Background

Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated.

Methods

Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays against historical human and recent avian influenza A(H2N2) viruses were performed across age groups in Rochester, New York, and Hong Kong, China. The impact of existing cross-reactive HAI immunity on the effective reproduction number was modeled.

Results

One hundred fifty individual sera from Rochester and 295 from Hong Kong were included. Eighty-five percent of patients born in Rochester and Hong Kong before 1968 had HAI titers ≥1:40 against A/Singapore/1/57, and >50% had titers ≥1:40 against A/Berkeley/1/68. The frequency of titers ≥1:40 to avian H2N2 A/mallard/England/727/06 and A/mallard/Netherlands/14/07 in subjects born before 1957 was 62% and 24%, respectively. There were no H2 HAI titers >1:40 in individuals born after 1968. These levels of seroprevalence reduce the initial reproduction number of A/Singapore/1/1957 or A/Berkeley/1/68 by 15%-20%. A basic reproduction number (R0) of the emerging transmissible virus <1.2 predicts a preventable pandemic.

Conclusions

Population immunity to H2 viruses is insufficient to block epidemic spread of H2 virus. An H2N2 pandemic would have lower impact in those born before 1968.

Mathematical Model Reveals the Role of Memory CD8 T Cell Populations in Recall Responses to Influenza

The current influenza vaccine provides narrow protection against the strains included in the vaccine, and needs to be reformulated every few years in response to the constantly evolving new strains. Novel approaches are directed toward developing vaccines that provide broader protection by targeting B and T cell epitopes that are conserved between different strains of the virus. In this paper, we focus on developing mathematical models to explore the CD8 T cell responses to influenza, how they can be boosted, and the conditions under which they contribute to protection. Our models suggest that the interplay between spatial heterogeneity (with the virus infecting the respiratory tract and the immune response being generated in the secondary lymphoid organs) and T cell differentiation (with proliferation occurring in the lymphoid organs giving rise to a subpopulation of resident T cells in the respiratory tract) is the key to understand the dynamics of protection afforded by the CD8 T cell response to influenza. Our results suggest that the time lag for the generation of resident T cells in the respiratory tract and their rate of decay following infection are the key factors that limit the efficacy of CD8 T cell responses. The models predict that an increase in the level of central memory T cells leads to a gradual decrease in the viral load, and, in contrast, there is a sharper protection threshold for the relationship between the size of the population of resident T cells and protection. The models also suggest that repeated natural influenza infections cause the number of central memory CD8 T cells and the peak number of resident memory CD8 T cells to reach their plateaus, and while the former is maintained, the latter decays with time since the most recent infection.

Masking of antigenic epitopes by antibodies shapes the humoral immune response to influenza

The immune responses to influenza, a virus that exhibits strain variation, show complex dynamics where prior immunity shapes the response to the subsequent infecting strains. Original antigenic sin (OAS) describes the observation that antibodies to the first encountered influenza strain, specifically antibodies to the epitopes on the head of influenza's main surface glycoprotein, haemagglutinin (HA), dominate following infection with new drifted strains. OAS suggests that responses to the original strain are preferentially boosted. Recent studies also show limited boosting of the antibodies to conserved epitopes on the stem of HA, which are attractive targets for a 'universal vaccine'. We develop multi-epitope models to explore how pre-existing immunity modulates the immune response to new strains following immunization. Our models suggest that the masking of antigenic epitopes by antibodies may play an important role in describing the complex dynamics of OAS and limited boosting of antibodies to the stem of HA. Analysis of recently published data confirms model predictions for how pre-existing antibodies to an epitope on HA decrease the magnitude of boosting of the antibody response to this epitope following immunization. We explore strategies for boosting of antibodies to conserved epitopes and generating broadly protective immunity to multiple strains.