Efficacy of early warning signals and spectral periodicity for predicting transitions in bipolar patients: An actigraphy study

Limited evidence of autocorrelation signaling upcoming affective episodes: a 12-month e-diary study in patients with bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND

Increased autocorrelation (AR) of system-specific measures has been suggested as a predictor for critical transitions in complex systems. Increased AR of mood scores has been reported to anticipate depressive episodes in major depressive disorder, while other studies found AR increases to be associated with depressive episodes themselves. Data on AR in patients with bipolar disorders (BD) is limited and inconclusive.

METHODS

Patients with BD reported their current mood via daily e-diaries for 12 months. Current affective status (euthymic, prodromal, depressed, (hypo)manic) was assessed in 26 bi-weekly expert interviews. Exploratory analyses tested whether self-reported current mood and AR of the same item could differentiate between prodromal phases or affective episodes and euthymia.

RESULTS

A total of 29 depressive and 20 (hypo)manic episodes were observed in 29 participants with BD. Self-reported current mood was significantly decreased during the two weeks prior to a depressive episode (early prodromal, late prodromal), but not changed prior to manic episodes. The AR was neither a significant predictor for the early or late prodromal phase of depression nor for the early prodromal phase of (hypo)mania. Decreased AR was found in the late prodromal phase of (hypo)mania. Increased AR was mainly found during depressive episodes.

CONCLUSIONS

AR changes might not be better at predicting depressive episodes than simple self-report measures on current mood in patients with BD. Increased AR was mostly found during depressive episodes. Potentially, changes in AR might anticipate (hypo)manic episodes.

Real-time monitoring of increases in restlessness to assess idiographic risk of recurrence of depressive symptoms

BACKGROUND

This confirmatory study aimed to examine whether we can foresee recurrence of depressive symptoms using personalized modeling of rises in restlessness.

METHODS

Participants were formerly depressed patients (N = 41) in remission who (gradually) discontinued antidepressants. Participants completed five smartphone-based Ecological Momentary Assessments (EMA) a day, for a period of 4 months, yielding a total of 21 180 observations. Statistical Process Control by means of Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control charts was used to detect rises in the EMA item 'I feel restless', for each individual separately.

RESULTS

An increase in restlessness was detected in 68.3% of the participants with recurring depressive symptoms, and in 26.3% of those who stayed in remission (Fisher's exact test p = 0.01, sensitivity was 68.3%, specificity was 73.7%). In the participants with a recurrence and an increase in restlessness, this increase could be detected in the prodromal phase of depression in 93.3% of the cases and at least a month before the onset of the core symptoms of depression in 66.7% of the cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Restlessness is a common prodromal symptom of depression. The sensitivity and specificity of the EWMA charts was at least as good as prognostic models based on cross-sectional patient characteristics. An advantage of the current idiographic method is that the EWMA charts provide real-time personalized insight in a within-person increase in early signs of depression, which is key to alert the right patient at the right time.

The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Procedure for Detecting Changes in Intensive Longitudinal Data in Psychological Research in Real-Time: A Tutorial Showcasing Potential Applications

Affect, behavior, and severity of psychopathological symptoms do not remain static throughout the life of an individual, but rather they change over time. Since the rise of the smartphone, longitudinal data can be obtained at higher frequencies than ever before, providing new opportunities for investigating these person-specific changes in real-time. Since 2019, researchers have started using the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) procedure, as a statistically sound method to reach this goal. Real-time, person-specific change detection could allow (a) researchers to adapt assessment intensity and strategy when a change occurs to obtain the most useful data at the most useful time and (b) clinicians to provide care to patients during periods in which this is most needed. The current paper provides a tutorial on how to use the EWMA procedure in psychology, as well as demonstrates its added value in a range of potential applications.

Can daily actigraphic profiles distinguish between different mood states in inpatients with bipolar disorder? An observational study

Background

Criterion A changes for bipolar disorder (BD) in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fifth Edition yield new difficulties in diagnosis. Actigraphy has been used to capture the activity features of patients with BD. However, it remains unclear whether long-term actigraphic data could distinguish between different mood states in hospitalized patients with BD.

Methods

In this observational study, 30 hospitalized patients with BD were included. Wrist-worn actigraphs were used to monitor motor activity. The patients were divided into bipolar disorder-depression (BD-D), bipolar disorder-mania (BD-M), and bipolar disorder-mixed state (BD-MS) groups. Motor activity differences were estimated using non-parametric analyses between and within the three groups.

Results

The mean 24 h activity level differed between the groups. In the between-group analysis, the intra-individual fluctuation and minute-to-minute variability in the morning and the mean activity level and minute-to-minute variability in the evening significantly differed between the BD-M and BD-MS groups. In the within-group analysis, the BD-M group showed a disrupted rhythm and reduced activity complexity at night. Both the BD-D and BD-MS groups demonstrated significant differences between several parameters obtained in the morning and evening.

Conclusion

The mean activity levels during the relatively long monitoring period and the intra-day variation within the groups could reflect the differences in motor activity. Sustained activity monitoring may clarify the emotional states and provide information for clinical diagnosis.