A critical evaluation of dynamical systems models of bipolar disorder

Early warning signals observed in motor activity preceding mood state change in bipolar disorder

INTRODUCTION

Alterations in motor activity are well-established symptoms of bipolar disorder, and time series of motor activity can be considered complex dynamical systems. In such systems, early warning signals (EWS) occur in a critical transition period preceding a sudden shift (tipping point) in the system. EWS are statistical observations occurring due to a system's declining ability to maintain homeostasis when approaching a tipping point. The aim was to identify critical transition periods preceding bipolar mood state changes.

METHODS

Participants with a validated bipolar diagnosis were included to a one-year follow-up study, with repeated assessments of the participants' mood. Motor activity was recorded continuously by a wrist-worn actigraph. Participants assessed to have relapsed during follow-up were analyzed. Recognized EWS features were extracted from the motor activity data and analyzed by an unsupervised change point detection algorithm, capable of processing multi-dimensional data and developed to identify when the statistical property of a time series changes.

RESULTS

Of 49 participants, four depressive and four hypomanic/manic relapses among six individuals occurred, recording actigraphy for 23.8 ± 0.2 h/day, for 39.8 ± 4.6 days. The algorithm detected change points in the time series and identified critical transition periods spanning 13.5 ± 7.2 days. For depressions 11.4 ± 1.8, and hypomania/mania 15.6 ± 10.2 days.

CONCLUSION

The change point detection algorithm seems capable of recognizing impending mood episodes in continuous flowing data streams. Hence, we present an innovative method for forecasting approaching relapses to improve the clinical management of bipolar disorder.

Evolutionary psychiatry: foundations, progress and challenges

Evolutionary biology provides a crucial foundation for medicine and behavioral science that has been missing from psychiatry. Its absence helps to explain slow progress; its advent promises major advances. Instead of offering a new kind of treatment, evolutionary psychiatry provides a scientific foundation useful for all kinds of treatment. It expands the search for causes from mechanistic explanations for disease in some individuals to evolutionary explanations for traits that make all members of a species vulnerable to disease. For instance, capacities for symptoms such as pain, cough, anxiety and low mood are universal because they are useful in certain situations. Failing to recognize the utility of anxiety and low mood is at the root of many problems in psychiatry. Determining if an emotion is normal and if it is useful requires understanding an individual's life situation. Conducting a review of social systems, parallel to the review of systems in the rest of medicine, can help achieve that understanding. Coping with substance abuse is advanced by acknowledging how substances available in modern environments hijack chemically mediated learning mechanisms. Understanding why eating spirals out of control in modern environments is aided by recognizing the motivations for caloric restriction and how it arouses famine protection mechanisms that induce binge eating. Finally, explaining the persistence of alleles that cause serious mental disorders requires evolutionary explanations of why some systems are intrinsically vulnerable to failure. The thrill of finding functions for apparent diseases is evolutionary psychiatry's greatest strength and weakness. Recognizing bad feelings as evolved adaptations corrects psychiatry's pervasive mistake of viewing all symptoms as if they were disease manifestations. However, viewing diseases such as panic disorder, melancholia and schizophrenia as if they are adaptations is an equally serious mistake in evolutionary psychiatry. Progress will come from framing and testing specific hypotheses about why natural selection left us vulnerable to mental disorders. The efforts of many people over many years will be needed before we will know if evolutionary biology can provide a new paradigm for understanding and treating mental disorders.