Unsupervised machine learning improves risk stratification in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: an analysis of the Spanish Myeloma Group

Joint AI-driven event prediction and longitudinal modeling in newly diagnosed and relapsed multiple myeloma

Multiple myeloma management requires a balance between maximizing survival, minimizing adverse events to therapy, and monitoring disease progression. While previous work has proposed data-driven models for individual tasks, these approaches fail to provide a holistic view of a patient's disease state, limiting their utility to assist physician decision-making. To address this limitation, we developed a transformer-based machine learning model that jointly (1) predicts progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AE), (2) forecasts key disease biomarkers, and (3) assesses the effect of different treatment strategies, e.g., ixazomib, lenalidomide, dexamethasone (IRd) vs lenalidomide, dexamethasone (Rd). Using TOURMALINE trial data, we trained and internally validated our model on newly diagnosed myeloma patients (N = 703) and externally validated it on relapsed and refractory myeloma patients (N = 720). Our model achieved superior performance to a risk model based on the multiple myeloma international staging system (ISS) (p < 0.001, Bonferroni corrected) and comparable performance to survival models trained separately on each task, but unable to forecast biomarkers. Our approach outperformed state-of-the-art deep learning models, tailored towards forecasting, on predicting key disease biomarkers (p < 0.001, Bonferroni corrected). Finally, leveraging our model's capacity to estimate individual-level treatment effects, we found that patients with IgA kappa myeloma appear to benefit the most from IRd. Our study suggests that a holistic assessment of a patient's myeloma course is possible, potentially serving as the foundation for a personalized decision support system.

The diagnostic value of machine learning for the classification of malignant bone tumor: a systematic evaluation and meta-analysis

Background

Malignant bone tumors are a type of cancer with varying malignancy and prognosis. Accurate diagnosis and classification are crucial for treatment and prognosis assessment. Machine learning has been introduced for early differential diagnosis of malignant bone tumors, but its performance is controversial. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to explore the diagnostic value of machine learning for malignant bone tumors.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched for literature on machine learning in the differential diagnosis of malignant bone tumors up to October 31, 2022. The risk of bias assessment was conducted using QUADAS-2. A bivariate mixed-effects model was used for meta-analysis, with subgroup analyses by machine learning methods and modeling approaches.

Results

The inclusion comprised 31 publications with 382,371 patients, including 141,315 with malignant bone tumors. Meta-analysis results showed machine learning sensitivity and specificity of 0.87 [95% CI: 0.81,0.91] and 0.91 [95% CI: 0.86,0.94] in the training set, and 0.83 [95% CI: 0.74,0.89] and 0.87 [95% CI: 0.79,0.92] in the validation set. Subgroup analysis revealed MRI-based radiomics was the most common approach, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.85 [95% CI: 0.74,0.91] and 0.87 [95% CI: 0.81,0.91] in the training set, and 0.79 [95% CI: 0.70,0.86] and 0.79 [95% CI: 0.70,0.86] in the validation set. Convolutional neural networks were the most common model type, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.86 [95% CI: 0.72,0.94] and 0.92 [95% CI: 0.82,0.97] in the training set, and 0.87 [95% CI: 0.51,0.98] and 0.87 [95% CI: 0.69,0.96] in the validation set.

Conclusion

Machine learning is mainly applied in radiomics for diagnosing malignant bone tumors, showing desirable diagnostic performance. Machine learning can be an early adjunctive diagnostic method but requires further research and validation to determine its practical efficiency and clinical application prospects.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42023387057.

Machine Learning Improves Risk Stratification in Myelofibrosis: An Analysis of the Spanish Registry of Myelofibrosis

Myelofibrosis (MF) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) with heterogeneous clinical course. Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation remains the only curative therapy, but its morbidity and mortality require careful candidate selection. Therefore, accurate disease risk prognostication is critical for treatment decision-making. We obtained registry data from patients diagnosed with MF in 60 Spanish institutions (N = 1386). These were randomly divided into a training set (80%) and a test set (20%). A machine learning (ML) technique (random forest) was used to model overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) in the training set, and the results were validated in the test set. We derived the AIPSS-MF (Artificial Intelligence Prognostic Scoring System for Myelofibrosis) model, which was based on 8 clinical variables at diagnosis and achieved high accuracy in predicting OS (training set c-index, 0.750; test set c-index, 0.744) and LFS (training set c-index, 0.697; test set c-index, 0.703). No improvement was obtained with the inclusion of MPN driver mutations in the model. We were unable to adequately assess the potential benefit of including adverse cytogenetics or high-risk mutations due to the lack of these data in many patients. AIPSS-MF was superior to the IPSS regardless of MF subtype and age range and outperformed the MYSEC-PM in patients with secondary MF. In conclusion, we have developed a prediction model based exclusively on clinical variables that provides individualized prognostic estimates in patients with primary and secondary MF. The use of AIPSS-MF in combination with predictive models that incorporate genetic information may improve disease risk stratification.

Prognostic Stratification of Multiple Myeloma Using Clinicogenomic Models: Validation and Performance Analysis of the IAC-50 Model

A growing need to evaluate risk-adapted treatments in multiple myeloma (MM) exists. Several clinical and molecular scores have been developed in the last decades, which individually explain some of the variability in the heterogeneous clinical behavior of this neoplasm. Recently, we presented Iacobus-50 (IAC-50), which is a machine learning-based survival model based on clinical, biochemical, and genomic data capable of risk-stratifying newly diagnosed MM patients and predicting the optimal upfront treatment scheme. In the present study, we evaluated the prognostic value of the IAC-50 gene expression signature in an external cohort composed of patients from the Total Therapy trials 3, 4, and 5. The prognostic value of IAC-50 was validated, and additionally we observed a better performance in terms of progression-free survival and overall survival prediction compared with the UAMS70 gene expression signature. The combination of the IAC-50 gene expression signature with traditional prognostic variables (International Staging System [ISS] score, baseline B2-microglobulin, and age) improved the performance well above the predictability of the ISS score. IAC-50 emerges as a powerful risk stratification model which might be considered for risk stratification in newly diagnosed myeloma patients, in the context of clinical trials but also in real life.