Determination of breast cancer prognosis after neoadjuvant chemotherapy: comparison of Residual Cancer Burden (RCB) and Neo-Bioscore

Circulating tumor cell phenotype detection based on epithelial-mesenchymal transition markers combined with clinicopathological risk has potential to better predict recurrence in stage III breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy: a pilot study

BACKGROUND

The potential value of detecting epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) CTCs in early breast cancer, especially during the neoadjuvant therapy period, requires further investigation. We analyzed dynamic CTC phenotype status, to improve recurrence risk stratification for patients with stage III breast cancers.

METHODS

We enrolled 45 patients with stage III breast cancers from 2 clinical trials undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy and utilized the CanPatrol CTC enrichment technique pre- and post-chemotherapy to identify CTC phenotypes, including epithelial CTCs, biphenotypic epithelial/mesenchymal CTCs, and mesenchymal CTCs, in peripheral blood samples. Kaplan-Meier analyses were conducted to explore the prognostic value of dynamic change of CTC count and the proportion of CTCs with different phenotypes. Then, redefine the risk stratification based on CTC status and clinicopathological risk in combination.

RESULTS

Increased proportion of M + CTCs was a high-risk CTC status that was associated with decreased DFS (HR, 3.584; 95% CI, 1.057-12.15). In a combined analysis with clinicopathological risk, patients with high-risk tumors had an elevated risk of recurrence compared to patients with low-risk tumors (HR, 4.482; 95% CI, 1.246-16.12). The recurrence risk could be effectively stratified by newly defined risk stratification criteria, with 5-year DFS of 100.0%, 77.3%, and 50.0%, respectively, for low-risk, mid-risk, and high-risk patients (P = 0.0077). Finally, in the ROC analysis, the redefined risk stratification demonstrated higher predictive significance with an AUC of 0.7727, compared to CTC status alone (AUC of 0.6751) or clinicopathological risk alone (AUC of 0.6858).

CONCLUSION

The proportion of M + CTCs increased after neoadjuvant chemotherapy indicating a higher risk of tumor recurrence. Combining CTC status with clinicopathological risk has potential to redefine the risk stratification of stage III breast cancers and provide improved predictions of relapse.

Combining Molecular and Traditional Prognostic Factors: A Holistic Approach to Breast Cancer Prognostication

Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease with various morphologies and molecular features, and it is the second leading cause of cancer death in women in developed countries. According to the literature, we currently lack both prognostic biomarkers and therapeutic targets. The most important prognostic factors are disease stage and Nottingham grade. We conducted a retrospective analysis involving 273 patients with BC who underwent neoadjuvant therapy before proceeding to curative surgical treatment between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2023. Pathological procedures were conducted at the Department of Pathology, Emergency County Hospital of Targu Mureș, Romania. A statistical analysis was performed. Regarding the relationship between Nottingham grade and Ki67, grade I was associated with a Ki67 of less than 14. The relationship between tumor grade and luminal was similar (p = 0.0001): Grade I was associated with luminal A. Regarding TNM stage, it was statistically significantly correlated with TILs (p = 0.01) and RCB (p = 0.0001). Stages III and IV were associated with a high RCB and poor prognosis. Regarding the prognostic value, Nottingham grade 3 and TNM stages III and IV were correlated with low overall survival and disease-free survival, with poor prognosis, and, among the molecular variables, RCB played the most important prognostic role.

Colorectal cancer and dormant metastases: Put to sleep or destroy?

After reading the review by An et al "Biological factors driving colorectal cancer metastasis", which covers the problem of the metastasis of colorectal cancer (CRC), I had a desire to discuss with readers one of the exciting problems associated with dormant metastases. Most deaths from CRCs are caused by metastases, which can be detected both at diagnosis of the primary tumor and several years or even decades after treatment. This is because tumor cells that enter the bloodstream can be destroyed by the immune system, cause metastatic growth, or remain dormant for a long time. Dormant tumor cells may not manifest themselves throughout a person's life or, after some time and under appropriate conditions, may give rise to the growth of metastases. In this editorial, we will discuss the most important features of dormant metastases and the mechanisms of premetastatic niche formation, as well as factors that contribute to the activation of dormant metastases in CRCs. We will pay special attention to the possible mechanisms involved in the formation of circulating tumor cell complexes and the choice of therapeutic strategies that promote the dormancy or destruction of tumor cells in CRCs.

Ultrasound-based radiomics-clinical nomogram for noninvasive prediction of residual cancer burden grading in breast cancer

PURPOSE

To assess the predictive value of an ultrasound-based radiomics-clinical nomogram for grading residual cancer burden (RCB) in breast cancer patients.

METHODS

This retrospective study of breast cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy (NAC) and ultrasound scanning between November 2020 and July 2023. First, a radiomics model was established based on ultrasound images. Subsequently, multivariate LR (logistic regression) analysis incorporating both radiomic scores and clinical factors was performed to construct a nomogram. Finally, Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to evaluate and validate the diagnostic accuracy and effectiveness of the nomogram.

RESULTS

A total of 1122 patients were included in this study. Among them, 427 patients exhibited a favorable response to NAC chemotherapy, while 695 patients demonstrated a poor response to NAC therapy. The radiomics model achieved an AUC value of 0.84 in the training cohort and 0.83 in the validation cohort. The ultrasound-based radiomics-clinical nomogram achieved an AUC value of 0.90 in the training cohort and 0.91 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Ultrasound-based radiomics-clinical nomogram can accurately predict the effectiveness of NAC therapy by predicting RCB grading in breast cancer patients.

Advances in regional nodal management of early-stage breast cancer

With the continuous improvement of systemic treatment, reasonable local regional control of early-stage breast cancer can be translated into survival benefits. The optimization of regional nodal management in patients with limited sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis needs to be weighed by surgical complications, regional recurrence risk, and lymph node status, as well as other escalating treatment (systemic/radiotherapy) that may result from de-escalating surgery. With the effective support and supplementation of systemic therapy and radiotherapy, the management of axillary surgery is developing in a de-escalating trend. The widespread application of neoadjuvant therapy has contributed to optimizing the management of patients with clinically node-negative/imaging node-positive disease. In clinical practice, it is necessary to consider the residual tumor burden of regional lymph nodes when formulating the optimal irradiation fields in patients with limited positive SLN without axillary lymph node dissection. The combined application of genomic tests and American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z0011/AMAROS criteria could provide patients with a better strategy of dual de-escalation treatment, which includes the de-escalation of both axillary surgery and systemic treatment. In the era of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), the regional nodal management of breast cancer should adhere to the concept of "updating ideas, making bold assumptions, and carefully seeking proof", make full use of the benefits of systemic therapy and radiotherapy to reduce the scope of surgery and complications, and expand the "net benefit" of efficacy and quality of life. This review discusses the optimization of regional nodal management in the era of SLNB, in order to provide reference information for clinicians.

Prognostic impact of reduced HER2 protein expression in post-neoadjuvant therapy resection specimens: A single institution experience and review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Retesting for Human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) in post-neoadjuvant therapy resection is variable, and data is conflicting regarding the prognostic significance of changes in HER2 expression pre and post therapy.

METHODS

We identified 104 patients with localized HER2 IHC 3+ breast cancer who received neoadjuvant trastuzumab(T)/pertuzumab(P) containing chemotherapy at Yale Cancer Center between 2012 and 2022. Patients were divided into 3 cohorts by response and HER2 IHC in the residual disease: Cohort 1 pathologic complete response (pCR), Cohort 2 pre-treatment IHC 3+/post treatment IHC 1+/2+, and Cohort 3 pre-treatment IHC 3+/post-treatment IHC 3+. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to assess recurrence free survival at 36 months.

RESULTS

The overall pCR rate was 62.5% (65/104), while 37.5% (39/104) of patients had residual disease (RD). Among patients with RD, 58.9% (23/39) remained IHC 3+ and 41.1% (16/39) had reduced HER2 expression IHC1+ or 2+. In patients with HER2 IHC 3+ RD, 26% (6/23) developed local recurrence or distant metastasis while none of patients with post NAT HER2 IHC 1+ or 2+ RD had relapse (p = 0.0309). In patients with pCR, 6.15% (4/65) had recurrence. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed superior disease-free survival in patients with reduced HER2 IHC expression compared to those with remained IHC 3+ (log rank p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

We conclude that reduced HER2 expression by IHC following neoadjuvant treatment was associated with lower recurrence rates in HER2 IHC 3+ breast cancer. If confirmed, RD HER2 IHC expression could be used as a prognostic biomarker to stratify patients in adjuvant trials and identify patients who may benefit from more intensive adjuvant therapy and post therapy surveillance.

Evaluation of the relationship between Ki67 expression level and neoadjuvant treatment response and prognosis in breast cancer based on the Neo-Bioscore staging system

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is widely used in the treatment of primary breast cancer. Different staging systems have been developed to evaluate the residual tumor after NAC and classify patients into different prognostic groups. Ki67, a proliferation marker, has been shown to be useful in predicting treatment response and prognosis. We aimed to investigate the prognostic importance Neo-Bioscore stage and pretreatment and posttreatment Ki67 levels in breast cancer patients who received NAC and correlations between Neo-Bioscore stage and pretreatment and posttreatment Ki67 levels.

METHODS

A total of 176 invasive breast carcinoma patients who underwent NAC were included in the study. Ki67 levels were evaluated by immunohistochemical methods in Trucut biopsy and surgical excision specimens. Patients were classified into prognostic groups using the Neo-Bioscore staging system.

RESULTS

Patients with high pretreatment Ki67 score were more likely to be in the higher Neo-Bioscore risk group (p < 0.001). Patients with a high posttreatment Ki67 score were more likely to be in the higher Neo-Bioscore prognostic risk group (p < 0.001). Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were shorter in patients with high posttreatment Ki67 scores and in patients in the higher Neo-Bioscore risk group. We also determined a cutoff 37% for pathological complete response.

CONCLUSION

Neo-Bioscore staging system is found to be important in predicting survival. The posttreatment Ki67 level is more important than pretreatment Ki67 level in predicting survival.

Comparison of MRI vs. [18F]FDG PET/CT for Treatment Response Evaluation of Primary Breast Cancer after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: Literature Review and Future Perspectives

The purpose of this systematic review was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of [18F]FDG PET/CT and breast MRI for primary breast cancer (BC) response assessment after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and to evaluate future perspectives in this setting. We performed a critical review using three bibliographic databases (i.e., PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) for articles published up to the 6 June 2023, starting from 2012. The Quality Assessment of Diagnosis Accuracy Study (QUADAS-2) tool was adopted to evaluate the risk of bias. A total of 76 studies were identified and screened, while 14 articles were included in our systematic review after a full-text assessment. The total number of patients included was 842. Eight out of fourteen studies (57.1%) were prospective, while all except one study were conducted in a single center. In the majority of the included studies (71.4%), 3.0 Tesla (T) MRI scans were adopted. Three out of fourteen studies (21.4%) used both 1.5 and 3.0 T MRI and only two used 1.5 T. [18F]FDG was the radiotracer used in every study included. All patients accepted surgical treatment after NAC and each study used pathological complete response (pCR) as the reference standard. Some of the studies have demonstrated the superiority of [18F]FDG PET/CT, while others proved that MRI was superior to PET/CT. Recent studies indicate that PET/CT has a better specificity, while MRI has a superior sensitivity for assessing pCR in BC patients after NAC. The complementary value of the combined use of these modalities represents probably the most important tool to improve diagnostic performance in this setting. Overall, larger prospective studies, possibly randomized, are needed, hopefully evaluating PET/MR and allowing for new tools, such as radiomic parameters, to find a proper place in the setting of BC patients undergoing NAC.

The Clinical Utility of lncRNAs and Their Application as Molecular Biomarkers in Breast Cancer

Given their tumor-specific and stage-specific gene expression, long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have demonstrated to be potential molecular biomarkers for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment response. Particularly, the lncRNAs DSCAM-AS1 and GATA3-AS1 serve as examples of this because of their high subtype-specific expression profile in luminal B-like breast cancer. This makes them candidates to use as molecular biomarkers in clinical practice. However, lncRNA studies in breast cancer are limited in sample size and are restricted to the determination of their biological function, which represents an obstacle for its inclusion as molecular biomarkers of clinical utility. Nevertheless, due to their expression specificity among diseases, such as cancer, and their stability in body fluids, lncRNAs are promising molecular biomarkers that could improve the reliability, sensitivity, and specificity of molecular techniques used in clinical diagnosis. The development of lncRNA-based diagnostics and lncRNA-based therapeutics will be useful in routine medical practice to improve patient clinical management and quality of life.

High Dynamic Range Dual-Modal White Light Imaging Improves the Accuracy of Tumor Bed Sampling After Neoadjuvant Therapy for Breast Cancer

OBJECTIVES

Accurate evaluation of residual cancer burden remains challenging because of the lack of appropriate techniques for tumor bed sampling. This study evaluated the application of a white light imaging system to help pathologists differentiate the components and location of tumor bed in specimens.

METHODS

The high dynamic range dual-mode white light imaging (HDR-DWI) system was developed to capture antiglare reflection and multiexposure HDR transmission images. It was tested in 60 specimens of modified radical mastectomy after neoadjuvant therapy. We observed the differential transmittance among tumor tissue, fibrosis tissue, and adipose tissue.

RESULTS

The sensitivity and specificity of HDR-DWI were compared with x-ray or visual examination to determine whether HDR-DWI was superior in identifying tumor beds. We found that tumor tissue had lower transmittance (0.12 ± 0.03) than fibers (0.15 ± 0.04) and fats (0.27 ± 0.07) (P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

HDR-DWI was more sensitive in identifying fiber and tumor tissues than cabinet x-ray and visual observation (P < .01). In addition, HDR-DWI could identify more fibrosis areas than the currently used whole slide imaging did in 12 samples (12/60). We have determined that HDR-DWI can provide more in-depth tumor bed information than x-ray and visual examination do, which will help prevent diagnostic errors in tumor bed sampling.

Good practice: The experiences with the utilization of residual cancer burden-A single institution study

INTRODUCTION

The use of neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) has been showing an incraesing tendency in the treatment of locally advanced breast cancer. The evaluation of residual cancer could be performed by Residual Cancer Burden (RCB) calculator. The prognostic system takes the two largest diameters of the tumor, the cellularity, the amount of in situ carcinoma, the number of metastatic lymph nodes, and the size of the largest metastatic deposit into account. The aim of our study was to examine the reproducibility of RCB in NAT treated patients.

METHODS

Patients who were treated with NAT and had resection specimens between 2018 and 2021 were selected. Histological examination was performed by five pathologists. After assessment of the examined variables, RCB points and RCB classes were defined. For statistical analysis, interclass correlation was used (SPSS Statistics V.22.0 software).

RESULTS

Altogether 100 patients were included in our retrospective, cohort study (average age: 57 years). In two-thirds of the cases, third generation chemotherapy was used, and mastectomy was performed. Significant concordance was found in the two largest diameters of the tumor (coefficients, 0.984 and 0.973), the cellularity (coefficient, 0.970), and the largest metastatic deposit (coefficient, 0.998). Although the amount of in situ carcinoma proved to be the least reproducible factor, it resulted in almost 90% of agreement (coefficient, 0.873). Regarding RCB points and classes, similar results were observed (coefficients, 0.989 and 0.960).

CONCLUSIONS

Significant agreement was observed between examiners based on almost all RCB parameters, points, and classes, reflecting the optimal reproducibility of RCB. Therefore, we recommend the use of the calculator in routine histopathological reports in NAT cases.

Early Assessment of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response Using Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Luminal B-like Subtype of Breast Cancer Patients: A Single-Center Prospective Study

This study aimed to evaluate the performance of multiparametric breast magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) for predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with luminal B subtype breast cancer. The prospective study included thirty-five patients treated with NAC for both early and locally advanced breast cancer of the luminal B subtype at the University Hospital Centre Zagreb between January 2015 and December 2018. All patients underwent breast mpMRI before and after two cycles of NAC. Evaluation of mpMRI examinations included analysis of both morphological (shape, margins, and pattern of enhancement) and kinetic characteristics (initial signal increase and post-initial behavior of the time-signal intensity curve), which were additionally interpreted with a Göttingen score (GS). Histopathological analysis of surgical specimens included grading the tumor response based on the residual cancer burden (RCB) grading system and revealed 29 NAC responders (RCB-0 (pCR), I, II) and 6 NAC non-responders (RCB-III). Changes in GS were compared with RCB classes. A lack of GS decrease after the second cycle of NAC is associated with RCB class and non-responders to NAC.

The Value of Semiquantitative Parameters Derived from 18F-FDG PET/CT for Predicting Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in a Cohort of Patients with Different Molecular Subtypes of Breast Cancer

Pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is a strong prognostic factor in breast cancer (BC). The aim of this study was to investigate whether semiquantitative parameters derived from baseline [¹⁸F]Fluorodeoxyglucose ([¹⁸F]FDG) positron emission computed tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) could predict pCR after NAC and survival outcomes in patients affected by different molecular subtypes of BC. We retrospectively retrieved patients from the databases of two Italian hospitals (Centre A: University Hospital of Ferrara; Centre B: University of Padua) meeting the following inclusion criteria: (1) diagnosis of BC; (2) history of NAC; (3) baseline [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT performed before the first cycle of NAC; (4) available follow-up data (response after NAC and survival information). For each [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT scan, semiquantitative parameters (SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV and TLG) related to the primary tumor (B), to the reference lesion for both axillary (N) and distant lymph node (DN), and to the whole-body burden of disease (WB) were evaluated. Patients enrolled were 133: 34 from centre A and 99 from centre B. Patients' molecular subtypes were: 9 luminal A, 49 luminal B, 33 luminal B + HER-2, 10 HER-2 enriched, and 32 triple negative (TNBC). Luminal A and HER-2 enriched BC patients were excluded from the analysis due to the small sample size. pCR after NAC was achieved in 47 patients (41.2%). [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT detected the primary tumor in 98.3% of patients and lymph node metastases were more frequently detected in Luminal B subgroup. Among Luminal B patients, median SUVmean_B values were significantly higher (p = 0.027) in responders (7.06 ± 5.9) vs. non-responders (4.4 ± 2.1) to NAC. Luminal B + HER-2 non-responders showed a statistically significantly higher median MTV_B (7.3 ± 4.2 cm³ vs. 3.5 ± 2.5 cm³; p = 0.003) and TLG_B (36.5 ± 24.9 vs. 18.9 ± 17.7; p = 0.025) than responders at baseline [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT. None of the semiquantitative parameters predicted pCR after NAC in TNBC patients. However, among TNBC patients who achieved pCR after NAC, 4 volumetric parameters (MTV_B, TLG_B, MTV_WB and TLG_WB) were significantly higher in patients dead at follow-up. If confirmed in further studies, these results could open up a widespread use of [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT as a baseline predictor of response to NAC in luminal B and luminal B + HER-2 patients and as a prognostic tool in TNBC.

The modified shrinkage classification modes could help to guide breast conserving surgery after neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer

Purpose

The traditional shrinkage classification modes might not suitable for guiding breast conserving surgery (BCS) after neoadjuvant therapy (NAT). Aim was to explore the modified shrinkage classification modes to guide BCS after NAT.

Methods

From April 2010 to 2018, 104 patients were included. All patients underwent MRI examinations before and after NAT. Residual tumors were removed and divided into more than 30 tissue blocks at 5-mm intervals. After performing routine procedures for paraffin-embedded histology, we made semiserial sections (6-μm thick). The MRI and pathology 3D models were reconstructed with 3D-DOCTOR software. Combined with traditional shrinkage modes and efficacy of NAT, we derived modified shrinkage classification modes which oriented by BCS purpose: modified concentric shrinkage modes (MCSM) and modified non concentric shrinkage modes (MNCSM). The MCSM means the longest diameter of residual tumor was less than 50% and ≤2cm in comparison with the primary tumor before NAT. Other shrinkage modes were classified as MNCSM.

Results

According to traditional shrinkage modes, 50 (48.1%) cases were suitable for BCS;while 70 (67.3%) cases were suitable for BCS according to the modified shrinkage modes (p=0.007). The consistency of MRI 3D reconstruction in assessing modified shrinkage classification modes was 93.2%, while it was 61.5% when assessing traditional shrinkage modes. Multivariate analysis showed that primary tumor stage, mammographic malignant calcification, molecular subtypes and nodal down-staging after NAT were independent predictors of modified shrinkage modes (all p<0.05). A nomogram was created based on these four predictors. With a median follow-up time of 77 months, the recurrence/metastasis rate in the MCSM and MNCSM group was 7.1% and 29.4%, respectively.

Conclusion

Modified shrinkage classification modes could help to guide the individualized selection of BCS candidates and scope of resection after NAT. MRI 3D reconstruction after NAT could accurately predict modified shrinkage modes and extent of residual tumor.

Thrombospondin 2 is a Functional Predictive and Prognostic Biomarker for Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients With Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

Background: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is characterized by a more aggressive biological behavior and unfavorable outcome. Circulating and histological expression of THBS2 has been demonstrated to be a novel diagnostic and prognostic biomarker in patients with various types of tumors. However, few studies have evaluated the predictive and prognostic value of THBS2 in TNBC specifically.

Methods: In total, 185 triple-negative breast cancer patients (TNBC) with preoperative neoadjuvant chemotherapy were enrolled in this study. Serum THBS2 (sTHBS2) level was measured both prior to the start of NAC and at surgery by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Histological THBS2 (hTHBS2) expression in patients with residual tumors was evaluated by immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining method. Correlations between variables and treatment response were studied. Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox proportional hazard regression model were applied for survival analysis. Functional activities of THBS2 in TNBC cells were determined by CCK-8 assay, colony formation, wound healing, and transwell assay.

Results: Of the 185 patients, 48 (25.9%) achieved pathological complete response (pCR) after completion of NAC. Elevated pCR rates were observed in patients with a lower level of sTHBS2 at surgery and higher level of sTHBS2 change (OR = 0.88, 95%CI: 0.79–0.98, p = 0.020 and OR = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.02–1.23, p = 0.015, respectively). In survival analysis, hTHBS2 expression in residual tumor was of independent prognostic value for both disease-free survival (HR = 2.21, 95%CI = 1.24–3.94, p = 0.007) and overall survival (HR = 2.07, 95%CI = 1.09–3.92, p = 0.026). For functional studies, THBS2 was indicated to inhibit proliferation, migration, and invasion abilities of TNBC cells in vitro.

Conclusion: Our findings confirmed the value of serum THBS2 level to predict pCR for TNBC patients and the prognostic performance of histological THBS2 expression in non-pCR responders after NAC. THBS2 might serve as a promising functional biomarker for patients with triple-negative breast cancer.

Prognostic value of residual cancer burden and Miller-Payne system after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer

BACKGROUND

To verify the feasibility of using the residual cancer burden (RCB) index to stratify prognosis of patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and to compare RCB with the Miller-Payne system.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathological data of patients receiving treatment between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2018. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare the survival outcomes and estimate disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). Harrell's concordance index (C-index) was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of RCB and Miller-Payne system.

RESULTS

A total of 423 female patients with complete data were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up time of 58.5 months (range, 7-126 months); 84 patients experienced recurrence, and 48 experienced breast cancer related death. RCB index and the Miller-Payne system were associated with prognosis in the whole cohort. Patients who achieved RCB-I had similar survival outcomes as those with pathological complete response (pCR, RCB-0). In whole cohort, for the RCB index and the Miller-Payne system, respectively, C-indexes for DFS were 0.73 and 0.64, for DSS were 0.74 and 0.64. The average RCB score was different among three subtypes (F=9.335, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The RCB index and the Miller-Payne system can stratify survival outcome of patients after NAC, and RCB had a superior prediction accuracy, especially for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). New cut-off value should be sought in order to improve prediction accuracy.

Development, verification, and comparison of a risk stratification model integrating residual cancer burden to predict individual prognosis in early-stage breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy

Background

A favorable model for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and stratifying prognostic risk in breast cancer (BC) treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is lacking. The aim of the current study was to formulate an excellent model specially for predicting prognosis in these patients.

Patients and methods

Between January 2012 and December 2015, 749 early-stage BC patients who received NAC in Xijing hospital were included. Patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 563) and an independent cohort (n = 186). A prognostic model was created and subsequently validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were further measured and compared with other models.

Results

Clinical American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, grade, estrogen receptor expression, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status and treatment, Ki-67 expression, lymphovascular invasion, and residual cancer burden were identified as independent prognostic variables for BC treated with NAC. The C-index of the model consistently outperformed other available models as well as single independent factors with 0.78, 0.80, 0.75, 0.82, and 0.77 in the training cohort, independent cohort, luminal BC, HER2-positive BC, and triple-negative BC, respectively. With the optimal cut-off values (280 and 360) selected by X-tile, patients were categorized as low-risk (total points ≤280), moderate-risk (280 < total points ≤ 360), and high-risk (total points >360) groups presenting significantly different 5-year DFS of 89.9%, 56.9%, and 27.7%, respectively.

Conclusions

In patients with BC, the first model including residual cancer burden index was demonstrated to predict the survival of individuals with favorable performance and discrimination. Furthermore, the risk stratification generated by it could determine the risk level of recurrence in whole early-stage BC cohort and subtype-specific cohorts, help tailor personalized intensive treatment, and select comparable study cohort in clinical trials.

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Establishing the first risk stratification nomogram for BC treated with NAC and validate its performance in BC cohorts.

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Incorporating residual cancer burden index into predictive nomogram for the first time.

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Predictive model can be utilized to predict DFS for all early-stage BC treated with NAC.

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Performing a continuous rather than categorized model to predict individual survival.

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The risk stratification can be used to select comparable population in trial design.