Estimating the population health impact of a multi-cancer early detection genomic blood test to complement existing screening in the US and UK

Modeling the population health impact of incorporating a multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test to existing cancer screening among immunocompromised individuals

OBJECTIVE

To assess the screening efficiency of an multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test added to standard of care (SoC) screening, compared to SoC screening alone, among immunocompromised individuals, and to estimate the diagnostic workup costs associated with positive screening results.

METHODS

We estimated the potential impact of cancer screening among immunocompromised individuals aged 50-79 years within the University of Utah Health system who underwent a stem cell/solid organ transplant or were diagnosed with a primary or secondary immunodeficiency disorder between January 2000 and February 2018. We derived cancer incidence rates from the Huntsman Cancer Institute Tumor Registry, and screening performance of SoC screening and an MCED test from published literature. Outcomes of screening efficiency included the true-positive to false-positive (TP:FP) ratio, diagnostic yield (DY), and cancer detection rate (CDR) for SoC screening alone and an incremental MCED test. Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Among 4932 immunocompromised individuals aged 50-79 years, we estimated that 2595 tests would be done under SoC screening and assumed that all individuals received an additional MCED test. Adding an MCED test to SoC screening substantially improved screening efficiency (TP:FP = 1:1, DY = 5.15/1000 tests, CDR = 42.0%), compared to SoC screening alone (TP:FP = 1:99, DY = 1.23/1000 tests, CDR = 5.3%), assuming an MCED test with 100% uptake. Our findings were also robust to parameter uncertainty.

CONCLUSION

Adding an MCED test to complement existing screening may be a highly efficient strategy to increase the detection of cancers among immunocompromised individuals. These results could help to improve cancer prevention and detection efforts among individuals with multiple cancer risk factors.

Clinical performance and utility: A microsimulation model to inform the design of screening trials for a multi-cancer early detection test

OBJECTIVES

Designing cancer screening trials for multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests presents a significant methodology challenge, as natural histories of cell-free DNA-shedding cancers are not yet known. A microsimulation model was developed to project the performance and utility of an MCED test in cancer screening trials.

METHODS

Individual natural history of preclinical progression through cancer stages for 23 cancer classes was simulated by a stage-transition model under a broad range of cancer latency parameters. Cancer incidences and stage distributions at clinical presentation in simulated trials were set to match the data from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. One or multiple rounds of annual screening using a targeted methylation-based MCED test (GalleriⓇ) was conducted to detect preclinical cancers. Mortality benefit of early detection was simulated by a stage-shift model.

RESULTS

In simulated trials, accounting for healthy volunteer effect and varying test sensitivity, positive predictive value in the prevalence screening round reached 48% to 61% in 6 natural history scenarios. After 3 rounds of annual screening, the cumulative proportions of stage I/II cancers increased by approximately 9% to 14%, the incidence of stage IV cancers was reduced by 37% to 46%, the reduction of stages III and IV cancer incidences was 9% to 24%, and the reduction of mortality reached 13% to 16%. Greater reductions of late-stage cancers and cancer mortality were achieved by five rounds of MCED screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Simulation results guide trial design and suggest that adding this MCED test to routine screening in the United States may shift cancer detection to earlier stages, and potentially save lives.

Performance of Tumor Surveillance for Children With Cancer Predisposition

Importance

Pediatric oncology patients are increasingly recognized as having an underlying cancer predisposition syndrome (CPS). Surveillance is often recommended to detect new tumors at their earliest and most curable stages. Data on the effectiveness and outcomes of surveillance for children with CPS are limited.

Objective

To evaluate the performance of surveillance across a wide spectrum of CPSs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study reviewed surveillance outcomes for children and young adults from birth to age 23 years with a clinical and/or molecular CPS diagnosis from January 1, 2009, through September 31, 2021. Patients were monitored using standard surveillance regimens for their corresponding CPS at a specialty pediatric oncology center. Patients with hereditary retinoblastoma and bone marrow failure syndromes were excluded. Data were analyzed between August 1, 2021, and December 6, 2023.

Exposure

Cancer predisposition syndrome.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes of surveillance were reviewed to evaluate the incidence, spectrum, and clinical course of newly detected tumors. Surveillance modalities were classified for accuracy and assessed for common strengths and weaknesses.

Results

A total of 274 children and young adults (mean age, 8 years [range, birth to 23 years]; 144 female [52.6%]) with 35 different CPSs were included, with a median follow-up of 3 years (range, 1 month to 12 years). During the study period, 35 asymptomatic tumors were detected in 27 patients through surveillance (9.9% of the cohort), while 5 symptomatic tumors were detected in 5 patients (1.8% of the cohort) outside of surveillance, 2 of whom also had tumors detected through surveillance. Ten of the 35 tumors (28.6%) were identified on first surveillance imaging. Malignant solid and brain tumors identified through surveillance were more often localized (20 of 24 [83.3%]) than similar tumors detected before CPS diagnosis (71 of 125 [56.8%]; P < .001). Of the 24 tumors identified through surveillance and surgically resected, 17 (70.8%) had completely negative margins. When analyzed across all imaging modalities, the sensitivity (96.4%), specificity (99.6%), positive predictive value (94.3%), and negative predictive value (99.6%) of surveillance were high, with few false-positive (6 [0.4%]) or false-negative (5 [0.3%]) findings.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that standardized surveillance enables early detection of new tumors across a wide spectrum of CPSs, allowing for complete surgical resection and successful treatment in the majority of patients.

A Targeted Methylation-Based Multicancer Early Detection Blood Test Preferentially Detects High-Grade Prostate Cancer While Minimizing Overdiagnosis of Indolent Disease

PURPOSE

Indolent prostate cancer (PCa) is prevalent in the intended use population (adults age 50-79 years) for blood-based multicancer early detection (MCED) tests. We examined the detectability of PCa by a clinically validated, targeted methylation-based MCED test.

METHODS

Detectability by Gleason grade group (GG), clinical stage, association of detection status with tumor methylated fraction (TMeF), and overall survival (OS) were assessed in substudy 3 of Circulating Cell-Free Genome Atlas (CCGA; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02889978) and PATHFINDER (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04241796) studies.

RESULTS

Test sensitivity for PCa in substudy 3 of CCGA was 11.2% (47/420). The test detected 0 (0%) of 58 low-grade (GG1), 3 (1.9%) of 157 favorable intermediate-grade (GG2), 4 (5.1%) of 78 unfavorable intermediate-grade (GG3), and 36 (31.9%) of 113 high-grade (GG4 and 5) cancers and 3 (3.2%) of 95 stage I, 11 (4.7%) of 235 stage II, 7 (14.9%) of 47 stage III, and 22 (81.5%) of 27 stage IV cases. The median TMeF was higher for detected than nondetected cases (2,106.0 parts per million [PPM]; IQR, 349.8-24,376.3 v 24.4 PPM; IQR, 17.8-38.5; P < .05). Nondetected cases had better OS (P < .05; hazard ratio [HR], 0.263 [95% CI, 0.104 to 0.533]) and detected cases had similar survival (P = .2; HR, 0.672 [95% CI, 0.323 to 1.21]) compared with SEER adjusted for age, GG, and stage. Performance was similar in PATHFINDER, with no detected GG1/2 (0/13) or stage I/II (0/16) cases.

CONCLUSION

This MCED test preferentially detects high-grade, clinically significant PCa. Use in population-based screening programs in addition to standard-of-care screening is unlikely to exacerbate overdiagnosis of indolent PCa.

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA): can it be used as a pan-cancer early detection test?

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA, DNA shed by cancer cells) is emerging as one of the most transformative cancer biomarkers discovered to-date. Although potentially useful at all the phases of cancer detection and patient management, one of its most exciting possibilities is as a relatively noninvasive pan-cancer screening test. Preliminary findings with ctDNA tests such as Galleri or CancerSEEK suggest that they have high specificity (> 99.0%) for malignancy. Their sensitivity varies depending on the type of cancer and stage of disease but it is generally low in patients with stage I disease. A major advantage of ctDNA over existing screening strategies is the potential ability to detect multiple cancer types in a single test. A limitation of most studies published to-date is that they are predominantly case-control investigations that were carried out in patients with a previous diagnosis of malignancy and that used apparently healthy subjects as controls. Consequently, the reported sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values might be lower if the tests are used for screening in asymptomatic populations, that is, in the population where these tests are likely be employed. To demonstrate clinical utility in an asymptomatic population, these tests must be shown to reduce cancer mortality without causing excessive overdiagnosis in a large randomized prospective randomized trial. Such trials are currently ongoing for Galleri and CancerSEEK.

Addressing positive multi-cancer early detection tests in head and neck Surgery: Experience with head and neck work up for high-risk referrals

OBJECTIVES

Blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests are now commercially available. However, there are currently no consensus guidelines available for head and neck cancer (HNC) providers to direct work up or surveillance for patients with a positive MCED test. We seek to describe cases of patients with positive MCED tests suggesting HNC and provide insights for their evaluation.

METHODS

Retrospective chart review of patients referred to Otolaryngology with an MCED result suggesting HNC. Patients enrolled in prospective MCED clinical trials were excluded. Cancer diagnoses were confirmed via frozen-section pathology.

RESULTS

Five patients were included (mean age: 69.2 years, range 50-87; 4 male) with MCED-identified-high-risk for HNC or lymphoma. Only patient was symptomatic. After physical exam and follow-up head and neck imaging, circulating tumor HPV DNA testing, two patients were diagnosed with p16 + oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas and underwent appropriate therapy. A third patient had no evidence of head and neck cancer but was diagnosed with sarcoma of the thigh. The remaining two patients had no evidence of malignancy after in-depth workup.

CONCLUSIONS

In this retrospective study, 2 of 5 patients referred to Otolaryngology with a positive MCED result were diagnosed with HPV + oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. We recommend that positive HNC MCED work up include thorough head and neck examination with flexible laryngoscopy and focused CT or MRI imaging. Given the potential for inaccurate MCED tissue of origin classification, PET/CT may be useful in specific situations. For a patient with no cancer identified, development of clear guidelines is warranted.

Effects of joint screening for prostate, lung, colorectal, and ovarian cancer - results from a controlled trial

Background

Although screening is widely used to reduce cancer burden, untargeted cancers are frequently missed after single cancer screening. Joint cancer screening is presumed as a more effective strategy to reduce overall cancer burden.

Methods

Gender-specific screening effects on PLCO cancer incidence, PLCO cancer mortality, all-neoplasms mortality and all-cause mortality were evaluated, and meta-analyses based on gender-specific screening effects were conducted to achieve the pooled effects. The cut-off value of time-dependent receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 10-year combined PLCO cancer risk was used to reclassify participants into low- and high-risk subgroups. Further analyses were conducted to investigate screening effects stratified by risk groups and screening compliance.

Results

After a median follow-up of 10.48 years for incidence and 16.85 years for mortality, a total of 5,506 PLCO cancer cases, 1,845 PLCO cancer deaths, 3,970 all-neoplasms deaths, and 14,221 all-cause deaths were documented in the screening arm, while 6,261, 2,417, 5,091, and 18,516 outcome-specific events in the control arm. Joint cancer screening did not significantly reduce PLCO cancer incidence, but significantly reduced male-specific PLCO cancer mortality (hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals [HR(95%CIs)]: 0.88(0.82, 0.95)) and pooled mortality [0.89(0.84, 0.95)]. More importantly, joint cancer screening significantly reduced both gender-specific all-neoplasm mortality [0.91(0.86, 0.96) for males, 0.91(0.85, 0.98) for females, and 0.91(0.87, 0.95) for meta-analyses] and all-cause mortality [0.90(0.88, 0.93) for male, 0.88(0.85, 0.92) for female, and 0.89(0.87, 0.91) for meta-analyses]. Further analyses showed decreased risks of all-neoplasm mortality was observed with good compliance [0.72(0.67, 0.77) for male and 0.72(0.65, 0.80) for female] and increased risks with poor compliance [1.61(1.40, 1.85) for male and 1.30(1.13, 1.40) for female].

Conclusion

Joint cancer screening could be recommended as a potentially strategy to reduce the overall cancer burden. More compliance, more benefits. However, organizing a joint cancer screening not only requires more ingenious design, but also needs more attentions to the potential harms.

Trial registration

NCT00002540 (Prostate), NCT01696968 (Lung), NCT01696981 (Colorectal), NCT01696994 (Ovarian).

A multi-cancer early detection blood test using machine learning detects early-stage cancers lacking USPSTF-recommended screening

US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines recommend single-cancer screening for select cancers (e.g., breast, cervical, colorectal, lung). Advances in genome sequencing and machine learning have facilitated the development of blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests intended to complement single-cancer screening. MCED tests can interrogate circulating cell-free DNA to detect a shared cancer signal across multiple tumor types. We report real-world experience with an MCED test that detected cancer signals in three individuals subsequently diagnosed with cancers of the ovary, kidney, and head/neck that lack USPSTF-recommended screening. These cases illustrate the potential of MCED tests to detect early-stage cancers amenable to cure.

Health State Utilities Associated with False-Positive Cancer Screening Results

INTRODUCTION

Early cancer detection can significantly improve patient outcomes and reduce mortality rates. Novel cancer screening approaches, including multi-cancer early detection tests, have been developed. Cost-utility analyses will be needed to examine their value, and these models require health state utilities. The purpose of this study was to estimate the disutility (i.e., decrease in health state utility) associated with false-positive cancer screening results.

METHODS

In composite time trade-off interviews using a 1-year time horizon, UK general population participants valued 10 health state vignettes describing cancer screening with true-negative or false-positive results. Each false-positive vignette described a common diagnostic pathway following a false-positive result suggesting lung, colorectal, breast, or pancreatic cancer. Every pathway ended with a negative result (no cancer detected). The disutility of each false positive was calculated as the difference between the true-negative and each false-positive health state, and because of the 1-year time horizon, each disutility can be interpreted as a quality-adjusted life-year decrement associated with each type of false-positive experience.

RESULTS

A total of 203 participants completed interviews (49.8% male; mean age = 42.0 years). The mean (SD) utility for the health state describing a true-negative result was 0.958 (0.065). Utilities for false-positive health states ranged from 0.847 (0.145) to 0.932 (0.059). Disutilities for false positives ranged from - 0.031 to - 0.111 (- 0.041 to - 0.111 for lung cancer; - 0.079 for colorectal cancer; - 0.031 to - 0.067 for breast cancer; - 0.048 to - 0.088 for pancreatic cancer).

CONCLUSION

All false-positive results were associated with a disutility. Greater disutility was associated with more invasive follow-up diagnostic procedures, longer duration of uncertainty regarding the eventual diagnosis, and perceived severity of the suspected cancer type. Utility values estimated in this study would be useful for economic modeling examining the value of cancer screening procedures.

Integrating Artificial Intelligence for Advancing Multiple-Cancer Early Detection via Serum Biomarkers: A Narrative Review

The concept and policies of multicancer early detection (MCED) have gained significant attention from governments worldwide in recent years. In the era of burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the integration of MCED with AI has become a prevailing trend, giving rise to a plethora of MCED AI products. However, due to the heterogeneity of both the detection targets and the AI technologies, the overall diversity of MCED AI products remains considerable. The types of detection targets encompass protein biomarkers, cell-free DNA, or combinations of these biomarkers. In the development of AI models, different model training approaches are employed, including datasets of case-control studies or real-world cancer screening datasets. Various validation techniques, such as cross-validation, location-wise validation, and time-wise validation, are used. All of the factors show significant impacts on the predictive efficacy of MCED AIs. After the completion of AI model development, deploying the MCED AIs in clinical practice presents numerous challenges, including presenting the predictive reports, identifying the potential locations and types of tumors, and addressing cancer-related information, such as clinical follow-up and treatment. This study reviews several mature MCED AI products currently available in the market, detecting their composing factors from serum biomarker detection, MCED AI training/validation, and the clinical application. This review illuminates the challenges encountered by existing MCED AI products across these stages, offering insights into the continued development and obstacles within the field of MCED AI.

Precision Population Cancer Medicine in Cancer of the Uterine Cervix: A Potential Roadmap to Eradicate Cervical Cancer

With the success of the Human Genome Project, the era of genomic medicine (GM) was born. Later on, as GM made progress, there was a feeling of exhilaration that GM could help resolve many disease processes. It also led to the conviction that personalized medicine was possible, and a relatively synonymous word, precision medicine (PM), was coined. However, the influence of environmental factors and social determinants of diseases was only partially given their due importance in the definition of PM, although more recently, this has been recognized. With the rapid advances in GM, big data, data mining, wearable devices for health monitoring, telemedicine, etc., PM can be more easily extended to population-level health care in disease management, prevention, early screening, and so on.and the term precision population medicine (PPM) more aptly describes it. PPM's potential in cancer care was posited earlier,and the current authors planned a series of cancer disease-specific follow-up articles. These papers are mainly aimed at helping emerging students in health sciences (medicine, pharmacy, nursing, dentistry, public health, population health), healthcare management (health-focused business administration, nonprofit administration, public institutional administration, etc.), and policy-making (e.g., political science), although not exclusively. This first disease-specific report focuses on the cancer of the uterine cervix (CC). It describes how recent breakthroughs can be leveraged as force multipliers to improve outcomes in CC - by improving early detection, better screening for CC, potential GM-based interventions during the stage of persistent Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and treatment interventions - especially among the disadvantaged and resource-scarce populations. This work is a tiny step in our attempts to improve outcomes in CC and ultimately eradicate CC from the face of the earth.

A non-invasive method for concurrent detection of multiple early-stage cancers in women

Untargeted serum metabolomics was combined with machine learning-powered data analytics to develop a test for the concurrent detection of multiple cancers in women. A total of fifteen cancers were tested where the resulting metabolome data was sequentially analysed using two separate algorithms. The first algorithm successfully identified all the cancer-positive samples with an overall accuracy of > 99%. This result was particularly significant given that the samples tested were predominantly from early-stage cancers. Samples identified as cancer-positive were next analysed using a multi-class algorithm, which then enabled accurate discernment of the tissue of origin for the individual samples. Integration of serum metabolomics with appropriate data analytical tools, therefore, provides a powerful screening platform for early-stage cancers.

Blood-based tests for multicancer early detection (PATHFINDER): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multicancer early detection (MCED) blood tests can detect a cancer signal from circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA). PATHFINDER was a prospective cohort study investigating the feasibility of MCED testing for cancer screening.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study done in oncology and primary care outpatient clinics at seven US health networks, a convenience sample of adults aged 50 years or older without signs or symptoms of cancer consented to MCED testing. We collected blood, analysed cfDNA, and returned results to participants' doctors. If a methylation signature indicative of cancer was detected, predicted cancer signal origin(s) informed diagnostic assessment. The primary outcome was time to, and extent of, diagnostic testing required to confirm the presence or absence of cancer. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04241796, and is completed.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 12, 2019, and Dec 4, 2020, we recruited 6662 participants. 4204 (63·5%) of 6621 participants with analysable results were women, 2417 (36·5%) were men, and 6071 (91·7%) were White. A cancer signal was detected in 92 (1·4%) of 6621 participants with analysable results. 35 (38%) participants were diagnosed with cancer (true positives) and 57 (62%) had no cancer diagnosis (false positives). Excluding two participants whose diagnostic assessments began before MCED test results were reported, median time to diagnostic resolution was 79 days (IQR 37-219): 57 days (33-143) in true-positive and 162 days (44-248) in false-positive participants. Most participants had both laboratory tests (26 [79%] of 33 with true-positive results and 50 [88%] of 57 with false-positive results) and imaging (30 [91%] of 33 with true-positive results and 53 [93%] of 57 with false-positive results). Fewer procedures were done in participants with false-positive results (17 [30%] of 57) than true-positive results (27 [82%] of 33) and few had surgery (one with a false-positive result and three with a true-positive result).

INTERPRETATION

This study supports the feasibility of MCED screening for cancer and underscores the need for further research investigating the test's clinical utility.

FUNDING

GRAIL.

Health Economic Evidence and Modeling Challenges for Liquid Biopsy Assays in Cancer Management: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Cancer-derived material circulating in the bloodstream and other bodily fluids, referred to as liquid biopsies (LBs), has become an appealing adjunct or alternative to tissue biopsies, showing vital promise in several clinical applications.

PURPOSE

A systematic literature review was conducted to (1) summarize the current health economic evidence for LB assays and (2) identify and analyze the studies addressed or reported on the challenges of health economic modeling in precision medicine.

METHODS

Relevant studies were identified in the EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EconLit, and the University of Melbourne Full Text Journal databases from 1 January 2013 to 16 September 2022. Included papers were selected if they were economic evaluations and/or budget impact analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 24 studies were included and analyzed, with the majority being full economic evaluations (n = 19, 79.2%). Four studies (16.7%) were health and budget impact analyses, and one study (4.1%) incorporated both an economic evaluation and a budget impact analysis. Cohort-level modeling techniques were the most common approach (n = 16; 80%). LB technologies were cost-effective in 15 studies (75%) considering different biomarkers, cancer types and stages, and economic analyses. These studies evaluated LBs for screening and early detection (66.7%), treatment selection (26.7%), and monitoring treatment response (6.6%). Budget impact analysis results were varied among included studies, with the majority of studies (n = 4; 80%) reporting either cost savings, minimal, or modest budget impact, while one study (20%) reported LBs as an efficient strategy. The reviewed studies often inadequately reported or addressed modeling challenges, such as patient-level processes, the combination of tests and treatments, preferences, and uncertainty.

CONCLUSION

LBs could provide a cost-effective approach for treatment selection in lung cancer and aid in the screening and early detection of other cancers, including colorectal, gastric, breast, and brain cancers. This is in comparison with various alternatives, such as the standard of care (SOC) and no screening scenario. However, it is important to mention that in some comparisons, LBs were used in combination with SOC instead of replacing it. Importantly, few studies have pointed toward LBs' cost-effectiveness for monitoring treatment response. Most health and budget impact analyses, especially those focused on lung cancer, suggest potential cost savings or a minimal-to-moderate budget impact. Nevertheless, additional research is needed to ascertain their effectiveness across various stages of lung and colorectal cancer, as well as to address potential modeling challenges.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022307939.

Early death after a diagnosis of metastatic solid cancer-raising awareness and identifying risk factors from the SEER database

BACKGROUND

Cancer death rates are declining, in part due to smoking cessation, better detection and new treatments; nevertheless, a large fraction of metastatic cancer patients die soon after diagnosis. Few studies and interventions focus on these patients. Our study aims to characterize early mortality in a wide range of metastatic solid tumors.

METHODS

We retrieved data on adult patients diagnosed with pathologically confirmed de- novo metastatic solid tumors between the years 2004-2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER). Our primary outcome was cancer specific early death rate (defined as death within two months of diagnosis). Additional data extracted included socio-demographical data, tumor primary, sites of metastases, and cause of death.

RESULTS

109,207 (20.8%) patients died of de-novo metastatic cancer within two months of diagnosis. The highest rates of early death were found in hepatic (36%), pancreato-biliary (31%) and lung (25%) primaries. Factors associated with early death included primary site, liver, and brain metastases, increasing age, and lower income. Cancer was the cause of death in 92.1% of all early deaths. Two-month mortality rates have moderately improved during the study period (from 22.4% in 2004 to 18.8% in 2016).

CONCLUSION

A fifth of de-novo metastatic cancer patients die soon after diagnosis, with little improvement over the last decade. Further research is required to better classify and identify patients at risk for early mortality, which patients might benefit from faster diagnostic tracks, and which might avoid invasive and futile diagnostic procedures.

The global burden of lung cancer: current status and future trends

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. However, lung cancer incidence and mortality rates differ substantially across the world, reflecting varying patterns of tobacco smoking, exposure to environmental risk factors and genetics. Tobacco smoking is the leading risk factor for lung cancer. Lung cancer incidence largely reflects trends in smoking patterns, which generally vary by sex and economic development. For this reason, tobacco control campaigns are a central part of global strategies designed to reduce lung cancer mortality. Environmental and occupational lung cancer risk factors, such as unprocessed biomass fuels, asbestos, arsenic and radon, can also contribute to lung cancer incidence in certain parts of the world. Over the past decade, large-cohort clinical studies have established that low-dose CT screening reduces lung cancer mortality, largely owing to increased diagnosis and treatment at earlier disease stages. These data have led to recommendations that individuals with a high risk of lung cancer undergo screening in several economically developed countries and increased implementation of screening worldwide. In this Review, we provide an overview of the global epidemiology of lung cancer. Lung cancer risk factors and global risk reduction efforts are also discussed. Finally, we summarize lung cancer screening policies and their implementation worldwide.

Dying To Find Out: The Cost of Time at the Dawn of the Multicancer Early Detection Era

Cancer is a significant burden worldwide that adversely impacts life expectancy, quality of life, health care costs, and workforce productivity. Although currently recommended screening tests for individual cancers reduce mortality, they detect only a minority of all cancers and sacrifice specificity for high sensitivity, resulting in a high cumulative rate of false positives. Blood-based multicancer early detection tests (MCED) based on next-generation sequencing (NGS) and other technologies hold promise for broadening the number of cancer types detected in screened populations and hope for reducing cancer mortality. The promise of this new technology to improve cancer detection rates and make screening more efficient at the population level demands the development of novel trial designs that accelerate clinical adoption. Carefully designed clinical trials are needed to address these issues.

Perspectives of private payers on multicancer early-detection tests: informing research, implementation, and policy

Emerging blood-based multicancer early-detection (MCED) tests may redefine cancer screening, reduce mortality, and address health disparities if their benefit is demonstrated. U.S. payers' coverage policies will impact MCED test adoption and access; thus, their perspectives must be understood. We examined views, coverage barriers, and evidentiary needs for MCED from 19 private payers collectively covering 150 000 000 enrollees. Most saw an MCED test's potential merit for cancers without current screening (84%), but fewer saw its merit for cancers with existing screening (37%). The largest coverage barriers were inclusion of cancers without demonstrated benefits of early diagnosis (73%), a high false-negative rate (53%), and lack of care protocols for MCED-detected but unconfirmed cancers (53%). The majority (58%) would not require mortality evidence and would accept surrogate endpoints. Most payers (64%) would accept rigorous real-world evidence in the absence of a large randomized controlled trial. The majority (74%) did not expect MCED to reduce disparities due to potential harm from overtreatment resulting from an MCED and barriers to downstream care. Payers' perspectives and evidentiary needs may inform MCED test developers, researchers producing evidence, and health systems framing MCED screening programs. Private payers should be stakeholders of a national MCED policy and equity agenda.

Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England

BACKGROUND

Screening programmes utilising blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, which can detect a shared cancer signal from any site in the body with a single, low false-positive rate, could reduce cancer burden through early diagnosis.

METHODS

A natural history ('interception') model of cancer was previously used to characterise potential benefits of MCED screening (based on published performance of an MCED test). We built upon this using a two-population survival model to account for an increased risk of death from cfDNA-detectable cancers relative to cfDNA-non-detectable cancers. We developed another model allowing some cancers to metastasise directly from stage I, bypassing intermediate tumour stages. We used incidence and survival-by-stage data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to estimate longer-term benefits to a cohort screened between ages 50-79 years.

RESULTS

Estimated late-stage and mortality reductions were robust to a range of assumptions. With the least favourable dwell (sojourn) time and cfDNA status hazard ratio assumptions, we estimated, among 100,000 screened individuals, 67 (17%) fewer cancer deaths per year corresponding to 2029 fewer deaths in those screened between ages 50-79 years.

CONCLUSION

Realising the potential benefits of MCED tests could substantially reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses and mortality.

Exploring Connections between Oral Microbiota, Short-Chain Fatty Acids, and Specific Cancer Types: A Study of Oral Cancer, Head and Neck Cancer, Pancreatic Cancer, and Gastric Cancer

The association between oral microbiota and cancer development has been a topic of intense research in recent years, with compelling evidence suggesting that the oral microbiome may play a significant role in cancer initiation and progression. However, the causal connections between the two remain a subject of debate, and the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. In this case-control study, we aimed to identify common oral microbiota associated with several cancer types and investigate the potential mechanisms that may trigger immune responses and initiate cancer upon cytokine secretion. Saliva and blood samples were collected from 309 adult cancer patients and 745 healthy controls to analyze the oral microbiome and the mechanisms involved in cancer initiation. Machine learning techniques revealed that six bacterial genera were associated with cancer. The abundance of Leuconostoc, Streptococcus, Abiotrophia, and Prevotella was reduced in the cancer group, while abundance of Haemophilus and Neisseria enhanced. G protein-coupled receptor kinase, H+-transporting ATPase, and futalosine hydrolase were found significantly enriched in the cancer group. Total short-chain fatty acid (SCFAs) concentrations and free fatty acid receptor 2 (FFAR2) expression levels were greater in the control group when compared with the cancer group, while serum tumor necrosis factor alpha induced protein 8 (TNFAIP8), interleukin-6 (IL6), and signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) levels were higher in the cancer group when compared with the control group. These results suggested that the alterations in the composition of oral microbiota can contribute to a reduction in SCFAs and FFAR2 expression that may initiate an inflammatory response through the upregulation of TNFAIP8 and the IL-6/STAT3 pathway, which could ultimately increase the risk of cancer onset.

An Overview of the Use of Precision Population Medicine in Cancer Care: First of a Series

Advances in science and technology in the past century and a half have helped improve disease management, prevention, and early diagnosis and better health maintenance. These have led to a longer life expectancy in most developed and middle-income countries. However, resource- and infrastructure-scarce countries and populations have not enjoyed these benefits. Furthermore, in every society, including in developed nations, the lag time from new advances, either in the laboratory or from clinical trials, to using those findings in day-to-day medical practice often takes many years and sometimes close to or longer than a decade. A similar trend is seen in the application of "precision medicine" (PM) in terms of improving population health (PH). One of the reasons for such lack of application of precision medicine in population health is the misunderstanding of equating precision medicine with genomic medicine (GM) as if they are the same. Precision medicine needs to be recognized as encompassing genomic medicine in addition to other new developments such as big data analytics, electronic health records (EHR), telemedicine, and information communication technology. By leveraging these new developments together and applying well-tested epidemiological concepts, it can be posited that population/public health can be improved. In this paper, we take cancer as an example of the benefits of recognizing the potential of precision medicine in applying it to population/public health. Breast cancer and cervical cancer are taken as examples to demonstrate these hypotheses. There exists significant evidence already to show the importance of recognizing "precision population medicine" (PPM) in improving cancer outcomes not only in individual patients but also for its applications in early detection and cancer screening (especially in high-risk populations) and achieving those goals in a more cost-efficient manner that can reach resource- and infrastructure-scarce societies and populations. This is the first report of a series that will focus on individual cancer sites in the future.

Shifting the Cancer Screening Paradigm: The Rising Potential of Blood-Based Multi-Cancer Early Detection Tests

Cancer remains a leading cause of death worldwide, partly owing to late detection which entails limited and often ineffective therapeutic options. Most cancers lack validated screening procedures, and the ones available disclose several drawbacks, leading to low patient compliance and unnecessary workups, adding up the costs to healthcare systems. Hence, there is a great need for innovative, accurate, and minimally invasive tools for early cancer detection. In recent years, multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests emerged as a promising screening tool, combining molecular analysis of tumor-related markers present in body fluids with artificial intelligence to simultaneously detect a variety of cancers and further discriminate the underlying cancer type. Herein, we aim to provide a highlight of the variety of strategies currently under development concerning MCED, as well as the major factors which are preventing clinical implementation. Although MCED tests depict great potential for clinical application, large-scale clinical validation studies are still lacking.

The promise and challenges of extracellular vesicles in the diagnosis of neurodegenerative diseases

Extracellular vesicles (EVs) have emerged as essential means of intercommunication for all cell types, and their role in CNS physiology is increasingly appreciated. Accumulating evidence has demonstrated that EVs play important roles in neural cell maintenance, plasticity, and growth. However, EVs have also been demonstrated to spread amyloids and inflammation characteristic of neurodegenerative disease. Such dual roles suggest that EVs may be prime candidates for neurodegenerative disease biomarker analysis. This is supported by several intrinsic properties of EVs: Populations can be enriched by capturing surface proteins from their cell of origin, their diverse cargo represent the complex intracellular states of the cells they derive from, and they can pass the blood-brain barrier. Despite this promise, there are important questions outstanding in this young field that will need to be answered before it can fulfill its potential. Namely, overcoming the technical challenges of isolating rare EV populations, the difficulties inherent in detecting neurodegeneration, and the ethical considerations of diagnosing asymptomatic individuals. Although daunting, succeeding to answer these questions has the potential to provide unprecedented insight and improved treatment of neurodegenerative disease in the future.

Patient Preferences for Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Screening Tests

BACKGROUND

Emerging blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests can detect a variety of cancer types across stages with a range of sensitivity, specificity, and ability to predict the origin of the cancer signal. However, little is known about the general US population's preferences for MCED tests.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify preferences for MCED tests among US adults aged 50-80 years using a discrete choice experiment (DCE).

METHODS

To quantify preferences for attributes of blood-based MCED tests, an online DCE was conducted with five attributes (true positives, false negatives, false positives, likelihood of the cancer type unknown, number of cancer types detected), among the US population aged 50-80 years recruited via online panels and social media. Data were analyzed using latent class multinomial logit models and relative attribute importance was obtained.

RESULTS

Participants (N = 1700) were 54% female, mean age 63.3 years. Latent class modeling identified three classes with distinct preferences for MCED tests. The rank order of attribute importance based on relative attribute importance varied by latent class, but across all latent classes, participants preferred higher accuracy (fewer false negatives and false positives, more true positives) and screenings that detected more cancer types and had a lower likelihood of cancer type unknown. Overall, 72% of participants preferred to receive an MCED test in addition to currently recommended cancer screenings.

CONCLUSIONS

While there is significant heterogeneity in cancer screening preferences, the majority of participants preferred MCED screening and the accuracy of these tests is important. While the majority of participants preferred adding an MCED test to complement current cancer screenings, the latent class analyses identified a small (16%) and specific subset of individuals who value attributes differently, with particular concern regarding false-negative and false-positive test results, who are significantly less likely to opt-in.

Impact of early detection on cancer curability: A modified Delphi panel study

Expert consensus on the potential benefits of early cancer detection does not exist for most cancer types. We convened 10 practicing oncologists using a RAND/UCLA modified Delphi panel to evaluate which of 20 solid tumors, representing >40 American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)-identified cancer types and 80% of total cancer incidence, would receive potential clinical benefits from early detection. Pre-meeting, experts estimated how long cancers take to progress and rated the current curability and benefit (improvement in curability) of an annual hypothetical multi-cancer screening blood test. Post-meeting, experts rerated all questions. Cancers had varying estimates of the potential benefit of early cancer detection depending on estimates of their curability and progression by stage. Cancers rated as progressing quickly and being curable in earlier stages (stomach, esophagus, lung, urothelial tract, melanoma, ovary, sarcoma, bladder, cervix, breast, colon/rectum, kidney, uterus, anus, head and neck) were estimated to be most likely to benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. Cancer types rated as progressing quickly but having comparatively lower cure rates in earlier stages (liver/intrahepatic bile duct, gallbladder, pancreas) were estimated to have medium likelihood of benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. Cancer types rated as progressing more slowly and having higher curability regardless of stage (prostate, thyroid) were estimated to have limited likelihood of benefit from a hypothetical screening blood test. The panel concluded most solid tumors have a likelihood of benefit from early detection. Even among difficult-to-treat cancers (e.g., pancreas, liver/intrahepatic bile duct, gallbladder), early-stage detection was believed to be beneficial. Based on the panel consensus, broad coverage of cancers by screening blood tests would deliver the greatest potential benefits to patients.

Factors Likely to Affect the Uptake of Genomic Approaches to Cancer Screening in Primary Care: A Scoping Review

Genomic tests are being developed for use in cancer screening. As most screening is offered in primary care settings, primary care provider and patient perceptions of such tests are likely to affect uptake. We conducted a scoping review to synthesize information on factors likely to affect patient and provider use of biospecimen collection and analysis for cancer screening, methods referred to as liquid biopsy or multi-cancer early detection (MCED) testing when used to detect multiple cancers. We ultimately identified 7 articles for review and analyzed them for major themes. None reported on primary care provider perspectives. Six articles focused on patient perceptions about testing for a single cancer (colorectal), and 1 reported on patient views related to testing for multiple cancers. Factors favoring this type of testing included its non-invasiveness, and the perceived safety, convenience, and effectiveness of testing. There is a dearth of information in the literature on primary care provider perceptions about liquid biopsy and MCED testing. The limited information on patient perceptions suggests that they are receptive to such tests. Research on primary care provider and patient test-related knowledge, attitudes, and behavior is needed to guide future implementation in primary care settings.

The Early Detection of Breast Cancer Using Liquid Biopsies: Model Estimates of the Benefits, Harms, and Costs

Simple Summary

Breast cancer screening is associated with benefits, such as mortality reduction and improved quality of life, and harms, such as false-positive results, overdiagnoses, and costs. Novel screen tests could be considered to reduce the harms and increase the benefits of screening. Liquid biopsies have been proposed as a novel method for the early detection of breast cancer. However, studies show that liquid biopsies based on cell-free DNA have a low sensitivity for early-stage breast cancer. Using the microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia, we model the benefits, harms, and costs of the early detection of breast cancer using liquid biopsies for varying levels of liquid biopsy sensitivity and specificity. We found that liquid biopsies are unlikely to be an alternative to digital mammography, given the test performance based on a CCGA substudy. When liquid biopsies are unable to detect the precursor lesion of breast cancer—ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)—they need to be able to detect small, early-stage tumors, with high specificity, at low costs in order to be an alternative to digital mammography. We estimated a maximum liquid biopsy price of USD 187, which is substantially lower than currently listed prices.

Abstract

Breast cancer screening is associated with harms, such as false-positives and overdiagnoses, and, thus, novel screen tests can be considered. Liquid biopsies have been proposed as a novel method for the early detection of cancer, but low cell-free DNA tumor fraction might pose a problem for the use in population screening. Using breast cancer microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia, we estimated the outcomes of using liquid biopsies in breast cancer screening in women aged 50 to 74 in the United States. For varying combinations of test sensitivity and specificity, we quantify the impact of the use of liquid biopsies on the harms and benefits of screening, and we estimate the maximum liquid biopsy price for cost-effective implementation in breast cancer screening at a cost-effectiveness threshold of USD 50,000. We investigate under what conditions liquid biopsies could be a suitable alternative to digital mammography and compare these conditions to a CCGA substudy. Outcomes were compared to digital mammography screening, and include mortality reduction, overdiagnoses, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the maximum price of a liquid biopsy for cost-effective implementation. When liquid biopsies are unable to detect DCIS, a large proportion of overdiagnosed cases is prevented but overall breast cancer mortality reduction and quality of life are lower, and costs are higher compared to digital mammography screening. Liquid biopsies prices should be restricted to USD 187 per liquid biopsy depending on test performance. Overall, liquid biopsies that are unable to detect ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) need to be able to detect small, early-stage tumors, with high specificity, at low costs in order to be an alternative to digital mammography. Liquid biopsies might be more suitable as an addition to digital mammography than as an alternative.

Clinical validation of a next-generation sequencing-based multi-cancer early detection "liquid biopsy" blood test in over 1,000 dogs using an independent testing set: The CANcer Detection in Dogs (CANDiD) study

Cancer is the leading cause of death in dogs, yet there are no established screening paradigms for early detection. Liquid biopsy methods that interrogate cancer-derived genomic alterations in cell-free DNA in blood are being adopted for multi-cancer early detection in human medicine and are now available for veterinary use. The CANcer Detection in Dogs (CANDiD) study is an international, multi-center clinical study designed to validate the performance of a novel multi-cancer early detection “liquid biopsy” test developed for noninvasive detection and characterization of cancer in dogs using next-generation sequencing (NGS) of blood-derived DNA; study results are reported here. In total, 1,358 cancer-diagnosed and presumably cancer-free dogs were enrolled in the study, representing the range of breeds, weights, ages, and cancer types seen in routine clinical practice; 1,100 subjects met inclusion criteria for analysis and were used in the validation of the test. Overall, the liquid biopsy test demonstrated a 54.7% (95% CI: 49.3–60.0%) sensitivity and a 98.5% (95% CI: 97.0–99.3%) specificity. For three of the most aggressive canine cancers (lymphoma, hemangiosarcoma, osteosarcoma), the detection rate was 85.4% (95% CI: 78.4–90.9%); and for eight of the most common canine cancers (lymphoma, hemangiosarcoma, osteosarcoma, soft tissue sarcoma, mast cell tumor, mammary gland carcinoma, anal sac adenocarcinoma, malignant melanoma), the detection rate was 61.9% (95% CI: 55.3–68.1%). The test detected cancer signal in patients representing 30 distinct cancer types and provided a Cancer Signal Origin prediction for a subset of patients with hematological malignancies. Furthermore, the test accurately detected cancer signal in four presumably cancer-free subjects before the onset of clinical signs, further supporting the utility of liquid biopsy as an early detection test. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that NGS-based liquid biopsy can offer a novel option for noninvasive multi-cancer detection in dogs.

New genomic technologies for multi-cancer early detection: Rethinking the scope of cancer screening

Cancers other than breast, colorectal, cervical, and lung do not have guideline-recommended screening. New multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests-using a single blood sample-have been developed based on circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) or other analytes. In this commentary, we review the current evidence on these tests, provide several major considerations for new MCED tests, and outline how their evaluation will need to differ from that established for traditional single-cancer screening tests.

Opportunities for Early Cancer Detection: The Rise of ctDNA Methylation-Based Pan-Cancer Screening Technologies

The efficiency of conventional screening programs to identify early-stage malignancies can be limited by the low number of cancers recommended for screening as well as the high cumulative false-positive rate, and associated iatrogenic burden, resulting from repeated multimodal testing. The opportunity to use minimally invasive liquid biopsy testing to screen asymptomatic individuals at-risk for multiple cancers simultaneously could benefit from the aggregated diseases prevalence and a fixed specificity. Increasing both latter parameters is paramount to mediate high positive predictive value—a useful metric to evaluate a screening test accuracy and its potential harm-benefit. Thus, the use of a single test for multi-cancer early detection (stMCED) has emerged as an appealing strategy for increasing early cancer detection rate efficiency and benefit population health. A recent flurry of these stMCED technologies have been reported for clinical potential; however, their development is facing unique challenges to effectively improve clinical cost–benefit. One promising avenue is the analysis of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) for detecting DNA methylation biomarker fingerprints of malignancies—a hallmark of disease aetiology and progression holding the potential to be tissue- and cancer-type specific. Utilizing panels of epigenetic biomarkers could potentially help to detect earlier stages of malignancies as well as identify a tumour of origin from blood testing, useful information for follow-up clinical decision making and subsequent patient care improvement. Overall, this review collates the latest and most promising stMCED methodologies, summarizes their clinical performances, and discusses the specific requirements multi-cancer tests should meet to be successfully implemented into screening guidelines.