Long-term follow-up of low-risk branch-duct IPMNs of the pancreas: is main pancreatic duct dilatation the most worrisome feature?

Systematic review on surveillance for non-resected branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

The management of branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMN) varies in existing guidelines. This study investigated the optimal surveillance protocol and safe discontinuation of surveillance considering natural history in non-resected IPMN, by systematically reviewing the published literature.

METHODS

This review was guided by PRISMA. Research questions were framed in PICO format "CQ1-1: Is size criteria helpful to determine surveillance period? CQ1-2: How often should surveillance be carried out? CQ1-3: When should surveillance be discontinued? CQ1-4: Is nomogram predicting malignancy useful during surveillance?". PubMed was searched from January-April 2022.

RESULTS

The search generated 2373 citations. After screening, 83 articles were included. Among them, 33 studies were identified for CQ1-1, 19 for CQ1-2, 26 for CQ1-3 and 12 for CQ1-4. Cysts <1.5 or 2 cm without worrisome features (WF) were described as more indolent, and most studies advised an initial period of surveillance. The median growth rate of cysts <2 cm ranged from 0.23 to 0.6 mm/year. Patients with cysts <2 cm showing no morphological changes and no WF after 5-years of surveillance have minimal malignancy risk of 0-2%. Two nomograms created with over 1000 patients had AUCs of around 0.8 and appear to be feasible in a real-world practice.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with suspected BD-IPMN <2 cm and no other WF, less frequent surveillance is recommended. Surveillance may be discontinued for cysts that remain stable during 5-year surveillance, with consideration of patient condition and life expectancy. With this updated surveillance strategy, patients with non-worrisome BD-IPMN should expect more streamlined management and decreased healthcare utilization.

Association of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features with advanced neoplasia in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN): A systematic review

BACKGROUND

This systematic review aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the International Consensus Fukuoka Guidelines (ICG2017) in identifying high-risk lesions of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMNs).

METHODS

The ICG2017 revision committee conducted a comprehensive literature review to establish evidence-based statements on IPMNs. The review focused on articles examining the diagnostic value of imaging features (e.g., cyst or main pancreatic duct diameter), clinical symptoms associated with IPMN, and serum biomarkers. Five clinical questions regarding high-risk stigmata (HRS) and worrisome features (WF) in the ICG2017 guidelines were addressed.

RESULTS

A total of 210 articles were reviewed. The findings revealed a significant association between the presence of mural nodules ≥5 mm in diameter or solid components with contrast enhancement and the diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. Contrast-enhanced diagnostic tools, such as CT, MRI, or EUS, demonstrated the highest prediction rate and were recommended. Positive cytology was identified as an HRS, while symptoms like acute pancreatitis and cyst diameter growth ≥2.5 mm per year were considered WFs. The use of nomograms and multiple diagnostic factors was recommended for optimal IPMN management.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review provides evidence supporting the improved diagnostic accuracy of ICG2017 in identifying high-risk lesions of IPMN. The multidisciplinary incorporation of HRS and WF based on imaging findings and clinical symptoms is crucial. These findings should inform the revision of ICG2017, enhancing the evaluation and management of IPMN patients. By implementing these recommendations, clinicians can make more informed decisions, leading to better diagnosis and treatment outcomes for high-risk IPMN cases.

Risk Models for Pancreatic Cyst Diagnosis

The overall prevalence of pancreatic cysts (PCs) is high in the general population. In clinical practice PCs are often incidentally discovered and are classified into benign, premalignant, and malignant lesions according to the World Health Organization. For this reason, in the absence of reliable biomarkers, to date clinical decision-making relies mostly on risk models based on morphological features. The aim of this narrative review is to present the current knowledge regarding PC's morphologic features with related estimated risk of malignancy and discuss available diagnostic tools to minimize clinically relevant diagnostic errors.

A polymorphic variant in telomere maintenance is associated with worrisome features and high-risk stigmata development in IPMNs

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are nonobligatory precursor lesions of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The identification of molecular biomarkers able to predict the risk of progression of IPMNs toward malignancy is largely lacking and sorely needed. Telomere length (TL) is associated with the susceptibility of developing cancers, including PDAC. Moreover, several PDAC risk factors have been shown to be associated with IPMN transition to malignancy. TL is genetically determined, and the aim of this study was to use 11 SNPs, alone or combined in a score (teloscore), to estimate the causal relation between genetically determined TL and IPMNs progression. For this purpose, 173 IPMN patients under surveillance were investigated. The teloscore did not show any correlation, however, we observed an association between PXK-rs6772228-A and an increased risk of IPMN transition to malignancy (HR = 3.17; 95%CI 1.47-6.84; P = 3.24 × 10-3). This effect was also observed in a validation cohort of 142 IPMNs even though the association was not statistically significant. The combined analysis was consistent showing an association between PXK-rs6772228-A and increased risk of progression. The A allele of this SNP is strongly associated with shorter LTL that in turn have been reported to be associated with increased risk of developing PDAC. These results clearly highlight the importance of looking for genetic variants as potential biomarkers in this setting in order to further our understanding the etiopathogenesis of PDAC and suggest that genetically determined TL might be an additional marker of IPMN prognosis.

Benefit of Extended Surveillance of Low-Risk Pancreatic Cysts After 5-Year Stability: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Low-risk branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) lacking worrisome features (WF) and high-risk stigmata (HRS) warrant surveillance. However, their optimal duration, especially among cysts with initial 5 years of size stability, warrants further investigation. We systematically reviewed the surveillance of low-risk BD-IPMNs and investigated the incidence of WF/HRS and advanced neoplasia, high-grade dysplasia, and pancreatic cancer during the initial (<5 years) and extended surveillance period (>5-years).

METHODS

A systematic search (CRD42020117120) identified studies investigating long-term IPMN surveillance outcomes of low-risk IPMN among the Cochrane Library, Embase, Google Scholar, Ovid Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science, from inception until July 9, 2021. The outcomes included the incidence of WF/HRS and advanced neoplasia, disease-specific mortality, and surveillance-related harm (expressed as percentage per patient-years). The meta-analysis relied on time-to-event plots and used a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Forty-one eligible studies underwent systematic review, and 18 studies were meta-analyzed. The pooled incidence of WF/HRS among low-risk BD-IPMNs during initial and extended surveillance was 2.2% (95% CI, 1.0%-3.7%) and 2.9% (95% CI, 1.0%-5.7%) patient-years, respectively, whereas the incidence of advanced neoplasia was 0.6% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.00%) and 1.0% (95% CI, 0.6%-1.5%) patient-years, respectively. The pooled incidence of disease-specific mortality during initial and extended surveillance was 0.3% (95% CI, 0.1%-0.6%) and 0.6% (95% CI, 0.0%-1.6%) patient-years, respectively. Among BD-IPMNs with initial size stability, extended surveillance had a WF/HRS and advanced neoplasia incidence of 1.9% (95% CI, 1.2%-2.8%) and 0.2% (95% CI, 0.1%-0.5%) patient-years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A lower incidence of advanced neoplasia during extended surveillance among low-risk, stable-sized BD-IPMNs was a key finding of this study. However, the survival benefit of surveillance among this population warrants further exploration through high-quality studies before recommending surveillance cessation with certainty.

[Diagnostics and clinical management of premalignant diseases of the pancreas]

Pancreatic cancer is one of the most aggressive solid tumors and still has a poor prognosis. A delayed diagnosis at advanced stages and a poor response to systemic treatment frequently make a curative treatment impossible. Therefore, the identification of high-risk patients and screening them regularly is the most promising approach to improve the prognosis. Chronic pancreatitis as well as neoplastic pancreatic cysts can greatly increase the risk of developing pancreatic cancer. Furthermore, familial syndromes and germline mutations also confer an increased risk for development of pancreatic cancer. This article provides an overview of the various premalignant diseases of the pancreas. The value of the various imaging modalities, such as magnetic resonance imaging and endosonography are particularly discussed as well as the screening interval and the indications for surgical treatment are explained.

Comorbidities Drive the Majority of Overall Mortality in Low-Risk Mucinous Pancreatic Cysts Under Surveillance

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CACI) has been suggested as a tool to determine comorbidity burden and guide management for patients with mucinous pancreatic cysts (Intrapapillary Mucinous Neoplasms and Mucinous Cystic Neoplasms), but has not been studied well among "low-risk" mucinous pancreatic cysts i.e. without worrisome features (WF) and high-risk stigmata (HRS). This study sought to determine the comorbidity burden among surveillance population of low-risk pancreatic cysts and provide their follow-up mortality outcomes.

METHODS

A single center study retrospectively reviewed a prospective pancreatic cyst database and included individuals with low-risk cysts undergoing serial imaging during 2016. Electronic medical records were reviewed to determine their baseline age-adjusted CACI (age-CACI). After 4 years, their progression to WF, disease specific (pancreatic malignancy-related, DSM), extra-pancreatic (EPM), and overall mortalities (OM) were determined using Kaplan-Meir Survival Analysis.

RESULTS

502 individuals underwent prospective surveillance. The study included 440 individuals with low-risk suspected or presumed mucinous cysts and excluded 50 and 12 individuals with WF and HRS respectively. Over a median follow-up of 56 months, 12 WF progressions, 2 DSMs, 42 EPMs, and 44 OMs were observed. Baseline age-CACI had good predictive capacity for 4-year EPM (Area-Under Curve: 0.87; p< .0001). The median age-CACI of 4 enabled cohort stratification into Low (age-CACI <4) and High CACI (age-CACI ≥4) groups. A significantly higher OM (p< .001) was observed among the High CACI group as compared to the Low CACI group.

CONCLUSION

Through real-time application of CACI to patient outcomes, our analysis supports incorporation of this comorbidity assessment tool in making shared surveillance decisions among low-risk pancreatic cyst population.

Risk Factors for the Development of High-risk Stigmata in Branch-duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

Objective Strict follow-up is recommended for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) to avoid missing the development of high-risk stigmata (HRS) at a premalignant stage. This study explored the risk factors associated with the development of HRS during follow-up. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of 283 patients with BD-IPMN, treated at Okayama University Hospital in Japan between January 2009 and December 2016. Only patients with imaging studies indicative of classical features of BD-IPMN without HRS and followed for over one year were included in the study. We performed radiological follow-up every six months and collected patients' demographic data, cyst characteristics, and clinical outcomes and used univariate logistic regression models to determine the odds of developing HRS. Results Ten patients (3.5%) developed HRS after a median surveillance period of 55.8 months. The main pancreatic duct (MPD) size (5-9 mm) and cyst growth rate (>2.5 mm/year) were both suggested to be possible risk factors for the development of HRS [odds ratio, 14.2; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.1-65.2, p=0.0006, and odds ratio, 6.1; 95% CI 1.5-25.5, p=0.014]. Regarding the number of worrisome features (WFs), the rate of HRS development was 2.0% (4/199) in cases with no WF, 1.6% (1/62) in cases with single WF and 22.7% (5/22) in cases with multiple WFs, respectively. The rate of HRS development was significantly higher in cases with multiple WFs than in the other cases (p<0.0001). Conclusion MPD dilation, rapid cyst growth, and multiple WFs were significant risk factors for the development of HRS. In the presence of such features, it is necessary to closely follow the development of HRS and avoid missing the best opportunity to perform surgical intervention.

Minimal main pancreatic duct dilatation in small branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms associated with high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or invasive carcinoma in patients with small branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs).

METHODS

923 patients who underwent surgical resection for an IPMN were identified. Sendai-negative patients were identified as those without history of pancreatitis or jaundice, main pancreatic duct size (MPD) <5 mm, cyst size <3 cm, no mural nodules, negative cyst fluid cytology for adenocarcinoma, or serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) <37 U/L.

RESULTS

BD-IPMN was identified in 388 (46.4%) patients and 89 (22.9%) were categorized as Sendai-negative. Overall, 68 (17.5%) of BD-IPMN had HGD and 62 (16.0%) had an associated invasive-carcinoma. Among the 89 Sendai-negative patients, 12 (13.5%) had IPMNs with HGD and only one patient (1.1%) had invasive-carcinoma. Of note, older age (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03-1.23; P = 0.008) and minimal dilation of MPD (OR 11.3, 95% CI 2.40-53.65; P = 0.002) were associated with high-risk disease in Sendai-negative patients after multivariable risk adjustment.

CONCLUSION

The risk of harboring a high-risk disease remains low in small BD-IPMNs. However, Sendai-negative patients who are older than 65 years old and those with minimal dilation of MPD (3-5 mm) are at greater risk of high-risk lesions and should be given consideration to be included as a "worrisome feature" in a future guidelines update.

Pre-Operative Imaging and Pathological Diagnosis of Localized High-Grade Pancreatic Intra-Epithelial Neoplasia without Invasive Carcinoma

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) arises from precursor lesions, such as pancreatic intra-epithelial neoplasia (PanIN) and intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). The prognosis of high-grade precancerous lesions, including high-grade PanIN and high-grade IPMN, without invasive carcinoma is good, despite the overall poor prognosis of PDAC. High-grade PanIN, as a lesion preceding invasive PDAC, is therefore a primary target for intervention. However, detection of localized high-grade PanIN is difficult when using standard radiological approaches. Therefore, most studies of high-grade PanIN have been conducted using specimens that harbor invasive PDAC. Recently, imaging characteristics of high-grade PanIN have been revealed. Obstruction of the pancreatic duct due to high-grade PanIN may induce a loss of acinar cells replaced by fibrosis and lobular parenchymal atrophy. These changes and additional inflammation around the branch pancreatic ducts (BPDs) result in main pancreatic duct (MPD) stenosis, dilation, retention cysts (BPD dilation), focal pancreatic parenchymal atrophy, and/or hypoechoic changes around the MPD. These indirect imaging findings have become important clues for localized, high-grade PanIN detection. To obtain pre-operative histopathological confirmation of suspected cases, serial pancreatic-juice aspiration cytologic examination is effective. In this review, we outline current knowledge on imaging characteristics of high-grade PanIN.

Long-term follow-up of Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms with negative Sendai Criteria: the therapeutic challenge of patients who convert to positive Sendai Criteria

BACKGROUND

The management of Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm (BD-IPMN) is still controversial. Our objective was to assess the long-term follow-up (FU) of patients with "low-risk" BD-IPMN according to the Sendai-International Consensus Guidelines (ICG-I).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with BD-IPMN and Negative Sendai-Criteria (NSC) from January 2004 to October 2019. A univariate analysis was performed to determine factors associated with conversion to Positive Sendai-Criteria (PSC) and malignancy. Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of the IGC-I were assessed for the development of malignancy.

RESULTS

A total of 219 patients were selected and underwent a median 58-month FU. Thirty-seven (17%) patients developed PSC during FU including 12 (5.5%) with malignant lesions. Conversely, 182 patients (83%) did not develop malignancy. The NPV and PPV of ICG-I for malignancy were 100% and 32.4%, respectively. Among patients who developed PSC, those with cancer were >65years (OR = 3.57;p = 0.015) and had significantly higher serum CA-19-9 levels (OR = 5.27;p = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

The ICG-I is a safe strategy for FU of patients with BD-IPMN. The absence of PSC exclude malignancy. Among patients who develops PSC, the risk of cancer remains low and surgery should be decided according to their surgical risk and life expectancy.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas: diagnostic performance of the 2017 international consensus guidelines using CT and MRI

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic performance of the 2017 international consensus guidelines for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas and to compare the diagnostic performance and intermodality agreement between contrast-enhanced CT and MRI.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated patients with surgical resection of IPMN of the pancreas who underwent preoperative CT and MRI between 2009 and 2019. Two radiologists evaluated the clinical and imaging features of IPMN of pancreas according to the 2017 international consensus guideline. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify significant predictors of malignancy in IPMN. The diagnostic abilities of CT and MRI were compared, and their intermodality agreement was determined.

RESULTS

Of 175 patients (mean age, 64 years; 116 males), 88 (50.3%) had malignant IPMN. On multivariable analysis, all three high-risk stigmata (main pancreatic duct [MPD] ≥ 10 mm, mural nodule ≥ 5 mm, and obstructive jaundice) and two worrisome features (MPD 5-9 mm and elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9) were associated with malignant IPMN on CT and MRI (p < 0.05). A mural nodule < 5 mm on MRI was also associated with malignant IPMN (OR 5.3, p = 0.009). The diagnostic accuracy of high-risk stigmata showed no difference between CT and MRI (73.7% vs. 75.4%, p = 0.505), with good to excellent intermodality agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

Current high-risk stigmata had the strongest association with malignant IPMN on CT and MRI. Although MRI is superior to CT for identifying mural nodules, diagnostic performance for differentiating malignant from benign IPMNs was similar between CT and MRI.

KEY POINTS

• The current high-risk stigmata in the 2017 International Consensus Guidelines had the strongest association with malignant IPMN on CT and MRI. • MRI is better than CT for identifying enhancing mural nodule. • Diagnostic performance for differentiating malignant from benign IPMNs was similar between CT and MRI.

Factors Associated With the Risk of Progression of Low-Risk Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

IMPORTANCE

Branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) are common pancreatic preneoplastic lesions, but their surveillance is not personalized.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate patient- and cyst-related factors associated with progression into worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS) categories of BD-IPMNs.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cyst- and patient-related factors of consecutive BD-IPMNs without WFs or HRS in 540 patients diagnosed from 2009 to 2018 with at least 12 months' surveillance until February 28, 2020, were registered in a 2-center ambispective cohort study in Italy. In a subgroup, the ABO blood group was studied for the first time in this setting.

EXPOSURE

Cyst-related and patients-related factors and ABO blood group.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The study outcome was the appearance of WFs or HRS according to the 2017 International Association of Pancreatology guidelines. Survival probability was calculated using Kaplan-Meier curve and risk factors identified by Cox proportional hazards regression. ABO blood group was inferred through genotypes with DNA extraction.

RESULTS

Of 540 patients with BD-IPMNs (median age, 66 years [interquartile range, 58.5-72.0 years]; 337 women [62.4%]) undergoing surveillance for a median of 51.5 months (interquartile range, 28-84 months) for 2758 person-years, 130 patients (24.1%) experienced progression. Probability of progression was 3.7% at 1 year, 23.4% at 5 years, and 43.3% at 10 years; 15 patients (2.8%) underwent surgery, 7 patients (1.3%) had malignant histologic findings, and 3 patients (0.56%) died of pancreatic-associated disease. Initial cyst size greater than 15 mm (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.44-2.91), body mass index greater than 26.4 (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.19-2.50), and heavy smoking (HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.14-2.86) were significant independent factors associated with progression risk. The AA blood genotype was also associated with progression risk (HR, 3.49; 95% CI, 1.04-11.71) compared with the OO genotype in the investigated subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This analysis of factors associated with progression of BD-IPMNs according to recent guidelines suggests that cyst size alone is not a reliable factor for estimation of progression risk; however, along with other readily available data, size is helpful for planning personalized surveillance of BD-IPMNs.

Risk of malignancy in small pancreatic cysts decreases over time

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cysts <15 mm without worrisome features have practically no risk of malignancy at the time of diagnosis but this can change over time. Optimal duration of follow-up is a matter of debate. We evaluated predictors of malignancy and attempted to identify a time to safely discontinue surveillance.

METHODS

Bi-centric study utilizing prospectively collected databases of patients with pancreatic cysts measuring <15 mm and without worrisome features who underwent surveillance at the Massachusetts General Hospital (1988-2017) and at the University of Verona Hospital Trust (2000-2016). The risk of malignant transformation was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and parametric survival models, and predictors of malignancy were evaluated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

806 patients were identified. Median follow-up was 58 months (6-347). Over time, 58 (7.2%) cysts were resected and of those, 11 had high grade dysplasia (HGD) or invasive cancer. Three additional patients had unresectable cancer for a total rate of malignancy of 1.7%. Predictors of development of malignancy included an increase in size ≥2.5 mm/year (HR = 29.54, 95% CI: 9.39-92.91, P < 0.001) and the development of worrisome features (HR = 9.17, 95% CI: 2.99-28.10, P = 0.001). Comparison of parametric survival models suggested that the risk of malignancy decreased after three years of surveillance and was lower than 0.2% after five years.

CONCLUSIONS

Pancreatic cysts <15  mm at the time of diagnosis have a very low risk of malignant transformation. Our findings indicate the risk decreases over time. Size increase of ≥2.5 mm/year is the strongest predictor of malignancy.

Progression of pancreatic cystic lesions without any risk features is associated with initial cyst size and obesity

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The clinical significance of incidental pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) remains unclear in those that are not accompanied by worrisome features or high-risk stigmata. We aimed to investigate the natural course of PCLs without any risk features and examine the clinical factors associated with their progression.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 427 patients with PCLs, which were incidentally detected by computed tomography between January 2003 and December 2012. Progression of PCLs without any risk features and the clinical factors associated with their progression were investigated. The length of time to significant growth was also evaluated.

RESULTS

Ninety-four (22.0%) of the 427 patients had asymptomatic PCLs that showed significant growth after a median surveillance period of 5.3 years; approximately 27.7% of the patients showed significant size changes in the first 5 years, while the remaining 72.3% showed significant changes after 5 years. The cumulative rate of patients with significant growth was associated with initial cyst size and high body mass index. In the growth group, additional treatments were required for 12 patients, one of whom developed malignancy. Four patients in the stable group underwent additional treatment and showed no malignant change.

CONCLUSIONS

One-fifth of the asymptomatic PCLs significantly increased in size after a long-term follow-up period, which was associated with initial cyst size and obesity. The size of PCLs mostly increased after 5 years; although the malignancy risk of PCLs was low, it was still a concern.

Long-term Risk of Malignancy in Branch-Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Long-term outcomes of patients with branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs), particularly those after 5 years of surveillance, have not been fully evaluated in large studies. We analyzed incidences of IPMN-derived carcinoma and concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [PDAC]) over 20 years in a large population of patients.

METHODS

We identified 1404 consecutive patients (52% women; mean age, 67.5 years) with a diagnosis of branch-duct IPMN, from 1994 through 2017, at the University of Tokyo in Japan. Using a competing risk analysis, we estimated cumulative incidence of pancreatic carcinoma, overall and by carcinoma type. We used competing risks proportional hazards models to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) for incidences of carcinomas. To differentiate IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas, we collected genomic DNA from available paired samples of IPMNs and carcinomas and detected mutations in GNAS and KRAS by polymerase chain reaction and pyrosequencing.

RESULTS

During 9231 person-years of follow-up, we identified 68 patients with pancreatic carcinomas (38 patients with IPMN-derived carcinomas and 30 patients with concomitant PDACs); the overall incidence rates were 3.3%, 6.6%, and 15.0% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Among 804 patients followed more than 5 years, overall cumulative incidence rates of pancreatic carcinoma were 3.5% at 10 years and 12.0% at 15 years from the initial diagnosis. The size of the IPMN and the diameter of the main pancreatic duct associated with incidence of IPMN-derived carcinoma (SHR 1.85; 95% confidence interval 1.38-2.48 for a 10-mm increase in the IPMN size and SHR 1.56; 95% confidence interval 1.33-1.83 for a 1-mm increase in the main pancreatic duct diameter) but not with incidence of concomitant PDAC.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large long-term study of patients with branch-duct IPMNs, we found the 5-year incidence rate of pancreatic malignancy to be 3.3%, reaching 15.0% at 15 years after IPMN diagnosis. We observed heterogeneous risk factor profiles between IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas.

Observation or resection of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: An ongoing tug of war

An increasing number of patients are being referred to pancreatic centres around the world due to often incidentally discovered cystic neoplasms of the pancreas. The evaluation and management of pancreatic cystic neoplasms is a controversial topic and with existing guidelines based on a lack of strong evidence there is discordance between centres and guidelines with regard to when to offer surgery and when to favour surveillance. The frequency, duration and modality of surveillance is also controversial as this is resource-consuming and must be balanced against the perceived benefits and risks involved. While there is consensus that the risk of malignancy should be balanced against the life-expectancy and comorbidities, the indications for surgery and surveillance strategies vary among the guidelines. Thus, the tug of war between surveillance or resection continues. Here we discuss the recommendations from guidelines with further accumulating data and emerging reports on intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm in the literature.