Development of a risk prediction score for hypertension incidence using Japanese health checkup data

Association between anthropometric indices and 5-year hypertension incidence in the general Japanese population

No existing reports demonstrate the association between anthropometric indices (body mass index, waist circumference, body roundness index, a body shape index) and hypertension according to sex and age in the general Japanese population. This retrospective analysis involved individuals aged 30-69 years who underwent annual medical checkups at Kagoshima Koseiren Hospital in 2005-2019, and who did not meet hypertension criteria at baseline. The outcome was hypertension incidence after 5 years, and its association with baseline anthropometric indices was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression analysis by sex and age. In 41,902 participants (age 52.3 ± 10.2 years, 47.7% men), 7622 individuals (18.2%) developed hypertension after 5 years. Body mass index, waist circumference, and body roundness index were significantly associated with the development of hypertension in both men and women across all age categories from 30 s to 60 s. In the population with a body mass index <25 kg/m2, waist circumference and body roundness index were significantly associated with hypertension after 5 years. A body shape index was significantly associated with the development of hypertension in men in their 40 s and 50 s but not in women of any age group. The area under the curve values were lower for a body shape index than for body mass index, waist circumference, and body roundness index in both men and women of all age groups. A body shape index was not a stronger indicator for 5-year hypertension incidence than body mass index, waist circumference, or body roundness index in both men and women across age groups from their 30s-60 s. The results of this study will help to more efficiently identify populations at high risk of developing hypertension and provide preventive interventions. A total of 41,902 participants from health checkup programs were stratified by gender and age to investigate the association between baseline anthropometric indices and hypertension incidence over a 5-year period. BMI, WC, and BRI were almost equally effective and showed a better association with risk of developing hypertension in women and young adults compared to men and old adults. Conversely, ABSI showed no greater association than BMI or WC in any age group in both men and women. ABSI, a body shape index; AUC, area under the curve from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis; BMI, body mass index; BRI, body roundness index; WC, waist circumference.

Association between baseline blood pressure and the incidence of lenvatinib-induced hypertension in patients with thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is the most frequently occurring adverse event of lenvatinib, recognized relatively early in its course. However, the trend in blood pressure after the initiation of lenvatinib and the outcomes with antihypertensive treatment are unclear. This study aimed to clarify the association between baseline blood pressure and the incidence of lenvatinib-induced hypertension in patients with thyroid cancer.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 65 patients without hypertension at the time of lenvatinib initiation. Patients were divided into two groups: those who developed hypertension grade ≥3 (HTN group) and those who did not develop hypertension grade ≥3 (non-HTN group).

RESULTS

Of the 65 patients, 46 (71%) developed hypertension grade ≥3. In both HTN and non-HTN groups, blood pressure significantly increased the day after lenvatinib initiation. There was no significant difference in the elevated values of both the changes in systolic blood pressure (ΔSBP) and diastolic blood pressure (ΔDBP) between the two groups, with an average increase of 20 mmHg in SBP and 13 mmHg in DBP from baseline. The median (range) time to the onset of hypertension grade ≥3 was 2 days (1-12 days). In the multivariable analysis, patients with normal (SBP 120-129 mmHg and/or DBP 80-84 mmHg) or high-normal baseline blood pressure (SBP 130-139 mmHg and/or DBP 85-89 mmHg) were at higher risk of developing hypertension grade ≥3 than those with optimal baseline blood pressure (SBP <120 mmHg and DBP <80 mmHg) (odds ratio [OR], 5.07; 95% confidential interval [CI] 1.09-23.54 and OR, 7.48; 95% CI, 1.67-33.51, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Lenvatinib-induced hypertension appears the day after administration, and higher baseline blood pressure is a significant risk factor for developing hypertension grade ≥3. In cases of increased blood pressure with lenvatinib, early initiation of antihypertensives may prevent treatment interruption due to hypertension and maintain the therapeutic intensity of lenvatinib.

Risk-prediction model for incident hypertension in patients with obstructive sleep apnea based on SpO2 signals

This work proposes a method utilizing oxygen saturation (SpO2) for predicting incident hypertension in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We extracted time domain features and frequency domain features from the SpO2 signal. For prediction, we employed several machine learning algorithms to establish the 3-year risk prediction model in the Chinese Sleep Health Study, including 250 subjects without baseline hypertension who underwent sleep monitoring. The proposed random forest model achieved an accuracy of 84.4%, a sensitivity of 77.0%, a specificity of 91.5% and an area under the receiver operator characteristic of 84.3% using 10-fold crossvalidation. We show that the model outperformed two sleep medicine specialists using clinical experience to predict hypertension. Furthermore, we applied the prediction results in the public Sleep Heart Health Study database and showed the subjects who were predicted to have hypertension would be at a higher risk in 4-6 years. This work shows the potential of SpO2 signal during sleep for the prediction of hypertension and could be beneficial to the early detection and timely treatment of hypertension in OSA patients.Clinical Relevance-There is no prediction model for incident hypertension in OSA patients in clinical practice. Most patients are unaware of health complexity, symptoms and risk factors before hypertension. Establishing an accurate prediction model can effectively provide early intervention for OSA patients and reduce the prevalence of hypertension.

Development of a risk prediction score and equation for chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for end-stage renal disease and contributes to increased risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk prediction score and equation for future CKD using health checkup data. This study included 58,423 Japanese participants aged 30-69 years, who were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. The predictors were anthropometric indices, life style, and blood sampling data. In derivation cohort, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis and obtained the standardized beta coefficient of each factor that was significantly associated with new-onset CKD and assigned scores to each factor. We created a score and an equation to predict CKD after 5 years and applied them to validation cohort to assess their reproducibility. The risk score ranged 0-16, consisting of age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, hyperuricemia, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 for the derivation cohort and 0.79 for the validation cohort. The CKD incidence gradually and constantly increased as the score increased from ≤ 6 to ≥ 14. The equation consisted of the seven indices described above, with AUC of 0.88 for the derivation cohort and 0.89 for the validation cohort. We developed a risk score and equation to predict CKD incidence after 5 years in Japanese population under 70 years of age. These models had reasonably high predictivity, and their reproducibility was confirmed through internal validation.

Prognostic Factors of New-Onset Hypertension in New and Traditional Hypertension Definition in a Large Taiwanese Population Follow-up Study

The aim of this study was to determine the predictors of new-onset hypertension when the definition of hypertension is changed from the traditional definition (140/90 mmHg) to a new definition (130/80 mmHg). Using data from the Taiwan Biobank, a total of 17,072 and 21,293 participants in the new and traditional definition groups were analyzed, respectively. During a mean follow-up period of 3.9 years, 3641 and 3002 participants developed hypertension in the new and traditional definition groups, respectively. After multivariable analysis, older age (OR, 1.035; 95% CI, 1.030 to 1.039; p < 0.001), male sex (OR, 1.332; 95% CI, 1.194 to 1.486; p < 0.001), high systolic blood pressure (SBP) (OR, 1.067; 95% CI, 1.062 to 1.073; p < 0.001), high diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (OR, 1.048; 95% CI, 1.040 to 1.056; p < 0.001), high heart rate (OR, 1.007; 95% CI, 1.002 to 1.012; p = 0.004), high body mass index (BMI) (OR, 1.091; 95% CI, 1.077 to 1.106; p < 0.001), high fasting glucose (OR, 1.004; 95% CI, 1.001 to 1.006; p = 0.002), and high triglycerides (OR, 1.001; 95% CI, 1.000 to 1.001; p = 0.004) were significantly associated with new-onset hypertension in the new definition group. In the traditional definition group, the predictors of new-onset hypertension were older age (OR, 1.038; 95% CI, 1.032 to 1.043; p < 0.001), high SBP (OR, 1.078; 95% CI, 1.072 to 1.084; p < 0.001), high DBP (OR, 1.039; 95% CI, 1.031 to 1.046; p < 0.001), high heart rate (OR, 1.005; 95% CI, 1.000 to 1.010; p = 0.032), high BMI (OR, 1.072; 95% CI, 1.058 to 1.087; p < 0.001), high fasting glucose (OR, 1.003; 95% CI, 1.000 to 1.005; p = 0.020), low cholesterol (OR, 0.998; 95% CI, 0.997 to 0.999; p = 0.004), high triglycerides (OR, 1.001; 95% CI, 1.000 to 1.001; p = 0.001), and low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (OR, 0.995; 95% CI, 0.993 to 0.997; p < 0.001). In conclusion, older age, high SBP and DBP, high heart rate, high BMI, high fasting glucose, and high triglycerides were useful predictors of new-onset hypertension in both the new and traditional definition groups. However, male sex was a significant predictor of new-onset hypertension only in the new definition group, and low cholesterol and low eGFR were significant predictors of new-onset hypertension only in the traditional definition group. Hence, changing the diagnostic cut-off value for hypertension may have a significant impact on the association of some clinical and laboratory parameters with new-onset hypertension.

The Lifelong Health Support 10: a Japanese prescription for a long and healthy life

Background

Although the age-adjusted incidence and mortality of cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been decreasing steadily in Japan, both diseases remain major contributors to morbidity and mortality along with the aging society. Herein, we aim to provide a prescription of 10 health tips for long and healthy life named the “Lifelong Health Support 10 (LHS10).”

Method

The LHS10 was developed by the preventive medicine specialists at the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center in Suita, where it has been used for health guidance to prevent CVD, cancer, and cognitive decline in addition to their major risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. It consisted of the lifestyle modification recommendations of the 2014 Japanese Society of Hypertension guidelines and the 2017 Japan Atherosclerosis Society Guidelines for preventing atherosclerotic CVD. Further, it came in line with other international lifestyle modification guidelines. In this narrative review, we summarized the results of several Japanese epidemiological studies investigating the association between the LHS10 items and the risk of cancer, CVD, and other chronic diseases including dementia, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease.

Results

The LHS10 included avoiding smoking and secondhand smoke exposure, engaging in physical activity, refraining from excessive alcohol drinking, reducing fried foods and sugary soft drinks, cutting salt in food, consuming more vegetables, fruits, fish, soy foods, and fibers, and maintaining proper body weight. All items of the LHS10 were shown to reduce the risk of cancer, CVD, and other chronic diseases.

Conclusions

The LHS10 can be a helpful tool for health guidance.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1265/ehpm.22-00085.