Rain and small earthquakes maintain a slow-moving landslide in a persistent critical state

Formation and evolution of thermokarst landslides in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Thermokarst landslide (TL) activity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is intensifying due to climate warming-induced permafrost degradation. However, the mechanisms driving landslide formation and evolution remain poorly understood. This study investigates the spatial distribution, annual frequency, and monthly dynamics of TLs along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor (QTEC), in conjunction with in-situ temperature and rainfall observations, to elucidate the interplay between warming, permafrost degradation, and landslide activity. Through the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and field surveys, we identified 1298 landslides along the QTEC between 2016 and 2022, with an additional 386 landslides recorded in a typical landslide-prone sub-area. In 2016, 621 new active-layer detachments (ALDs) were identified, 1.3 times the total historical record. This surge aligned with unprecedented mean annual and August temperatures. The ALDs emerged primarily between late August and early September, coinciding with maximum thaw depth. From 2016 to 2022, 97.8 % of these ALDs evolved into retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs), identified as active landslides. Landslides typically occur in alpine meadows at moderate altitudes and on gentle northward slopes. The thick ice layer near the permafrost table serves as the material basis for ALD occurrence. Abnormally high temperature significantly increased the active layer thickness (ALT), resulting in melting of the ice layer and formation of a thawed interlayer, which was the direct causing factor for ALD. By altering the local material, micro-topography, and thermal conditions, ALD activity significantly increases RTS susceptibility. Understanding the mechanisms of ALD formation and evolution into RTS provides a theoretical foundation for infrastructure development and disaster mitigation in extreme environments.

Human activities are intensifying the spatial variation of landslides in the Yellow River Basin

Human activities are a triggering factor for landslides in the Yellow River Basin (YRB, China). However, the extent to which the spatial distribution of landslides is affected by human activities is unclear. We constructed a human activity intensity index (HAII) based on nighttime light data and land cover data. Regression and dominance analyses were used to compare the effects of the HAII, precipitation, distance to river, distance to fault, topographic relief and slope on the landslides spatial density (LSD). The results showed that in the YRB, the HAII, as a dominance influencing factor, had a significant positive influence on the LSD. Moreover, regional differences in the human disturbance of nature intensify the spatial variation of LSD. To quantify the intensity of human disturbance to nature, a human-nature conflict index (HNCI) is constructed by quantifying the difference between the slope distributions of artificial and natural landscapes. The results show that in the middle section of the YRB, humans are developing more steep mountainous areas, leading to more dense landslides. This study provides a reference for landslide risk management and land use planning in the YRB.

Down-hill creep of a granular material under expansion/contraction cycles

We investigate the down-hill creep of an inclined layer of granular material caused by quasi-static oscillatory variations of the size of the particles. The size variation is taken to be maximum at the surface and decreasing with depth, as it may be argued to occur in the case of a granular soil affected by atmospheric conditions. The material is modeled as an athermal two dimensional polydisperse system of soft disks under the action of gravity. The slope angle is below the angle of repose and therefore the system reaches an equilibrium configuration under static external conditions. However, under a protocol in which particles slowly change size in a quasistatic oscillatory way, the system is observed to creep down in a synchronized way with the oscillation. We measure the creep advance per cycle as a function of the slope angle and the degree of change in particle size. We also find that the creep rate is maximum at the surface and smoothly decreases with depth, as it is observed to occur in the field.

Triggering and recovery of earthquake accelerated landslides in Central Italy revealed by satellite radar observations

Earthquake triggered landslides often pose a great threat to human life and property. Emerging research has been devoted to documenting coseismic landslides failed during or shortly after earthquakes, however, the long-term seismic effect that causes unstable landslides only to accelerate, moderately or acutely, without immediate failures is largely neglected. Here we show the activation and recovery of these earthquake accelerated landslides (EALs) in Central Italy, based on satellite radar observations. Unlike previous studies based on single or discrete landslides, we established a large inventory of 819 EALs and statistically quantified their spatial clustering features against a set of conditioning factors, thus finding that EALs did not rely on strong seismic shaking or hanging wall effects to occur and larger landslides were more likely to accelerate after earthquakes than smaller ones. We also discovered their accelerating-to-recovering sliding dynamics, and how they differed from the collapsed 759 coseismic landslides. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the earthquake-triggering landslide mechanism and are of great significance for long-term landslide risk assessment in seismically active areas.

Spatiotemporal Evolution Pattern and Driving Mechanisms of Landslides in the Wenchuan Earthquake-Affected Region: A Case Study in the Bailong River Basin, China

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of landslides following a mega-earthquake at the catchment scale can lead to improved landslide hazard assessment and reduced related risk. However, little effort has been made to undertake such research in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected region, outside Sichuan Province, China. In this study, we used the Goulinping valley in the Bailong River basin in southern Gansu Province, China, as an example. By examining the multitemporal inventory, we revealed various characteristics of the spatiotemporal evolution of landslides over the past 13 years (2007–2020). We evaluated the activity of landslides using multisource remote-sensing technology, analyzed the driving mechanisms of landslides, and further quantified the contribution of landslide evolution to debris flow in the catchment. Our results indicate that the number of landslides increased by nearly six times from 2007 to 2020, and the total volume of landslides approximately doubled. The evolution of landslides in the catchment can be divided into three stages: the earthquake driving stage (2008), the coupled driving stage of earthquake and rainfall (2008–2017), and the rainfall driving stage (2017–present). Landslides in the upstream limestone area were responsive to earthquakes, while the middle–lower loess–phyllite-dominated reaches were mainly controlled by rainfall. Thus, the current landslides in the upstream region remain stable, and those in the mid-downstream are vigorous. Small landslides and mid-downstream slope erosion can rapidly provide abundant debris flow and reduce its threshold, leading to an increase in the frequency and scale of debris flow. This study lays the foundation for studying landslide mechanisms in the Bailong River basin or similar regions. It also aids in engineering management and landslide risk mitigation under seismic activity and climate change conditions.

SAR and optical images correlation illuminates post-seismic landslide motion after the Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake (Nepal)

In the days to weeks following an earthquake, landslides can display specific post-seismic motions, including delayed initiations and post-seismic relaxations. These motions have an uncertain origin, sometimes attributed to specificities of the landslide basal interface or to fluid transports in the landslide basal shear zone. Here we address this question, by documenting the co- and post-seismic motions of slow-moving landslides accelerated by the Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8, 25/04/2015, Nepal). We detect 11 slow-moving landslides over an area of 750 km\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$^2$$\end{document}2 in the near field of the earthquake, and monitor their motions thanks to a time-series of Pléiades optical satellite images and SAR Sentinel-1 images. The post-seismic landslide motions are much larger than the co-seismic ones, reaching up to \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$34 \,\pm\, 0.6$$\end{document}34±0.6 m accommodated over 2 months. A delayed initiation of several days (> 4 days) is also measured for at least two of the landslides. We analyze our findings in regards with all the previous observations on slow-moving landslides accelerated by earthquakes, and propose that the post-seismic motions are caused by diffusion of groundwater from co-seismic material contraction up to the landslide basal shear zone or from internal landslide reconfiguration. Our observations strongly suggest the main control of the hydrology in the landslide processes under seismic forcings.

The perpetual fragility of creeping hillslopes

Soil creeps imperceptibly but relentlessly downhill, shaping landscapes and the human and ecological communities that live within them. What causes this granular material to 'flow' at angles well below repose? The unchallenged dogma is churning of soil by (bio)physical disturbances. Here we experimentally render slow creep dynamics down to micron scale, in a laboratory hillslope where disturbances can be tuned. Surprisingly, we find that even an undisturbed sandpile creeps indefinitely, with rates and styles comparable to natural hillslopes. Creep progressively slows as the initially fragile pile relaxes into a lower energy state. This slowing can be enhanced or reversed with different imposed disturbances. Our observations suggest a new model for soil as a creeping glass, wherein environmental disturbances maintain soil in a perpetually fragile state.

Effect of coronavirus lockdowns on the ambient seismic noise levels in Gujarat, northwest India

The Covid-19 pandemic created havoc and forced lockdowns in almost all the countries worldwide, to inhibit social spreading. In India as well, as a precautionary measure, complete and partial lockdowns were announced in phases during March 25 to May 31, 2020. The restricted human activities led to a drastic reduction in seismic background noise in the high frequency range of 1–20 Hz, representative of cultural noise. In this study, we analyse the effect of anthropogenic activity on the Earth vibrations, utilizing ambient noise recorded at twelve broadband seismographs installed in different environmental and geological conditions in Gujarat. We find that the lockdowns caused 1–19 dB decrease in seismic noise levels. The impact of restricted anthropogenic activities is predominantly visible during the daytime in urban areas, in the vicinity of industries and/or highways. A 27–79% reduction in seismic noise ground displacement (d_rms) is observed in daytime during the lockdown, in populated areas. However, data from station MOR reveals a drastic decrease in d_rms amplitude both during the day (79%) and night times (87%) since factories in this area operate round the clock. The noise at stations located in remote areas and that due to microseisms, shows negligible variation.

The 2020 coronavirus lockdown and seismic monitoring of anthropic activities in Northern Italy

In March/April 2020 the Italian government drastically reduced vehicle traffic and interrupted all non-essential industrial activities over the entire national territory. Italy thus became the first country in the world, with the exception of Hubei, to enact lockdown measures as a consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak and the need to contain it. Italy is also a seismically active area, and as such is monitored by a dense permanent network of seismic stations. We analyse continuous seismic data from many stations in northern and central Italy, and quantify the impact of the lockdown on seismic ambient noise, as a function of time and location. We find that the lockdown reduces ambient noise significantly in the 1–10 Hz frequency range; because natural sources of seismic noise are not affected by the lockdown, the seismic signature of anthropic noise can be characterised with unprecedented clarity, by simply comparing the signal recorded before and after the lockdown. Our results correlate well with independent evaluations of the impact of the lockdown (e.g., cell phone displacements), and we submit that ambient-noise seismology is a useful tool to monitor containment measures such as the coronavirus lockdowns.

Seismic and Rainfall Induced Displacements of an Existing Landslide: Findings from the Continuous Monitoring

“La Sorbella” is a deep-seated existing landslide in a Miocene clayey formation located in central Italy. Given the interaction with a national road, this landslide has been monitored for a long time with inclinometers and hydraulic piezometers. Recently, the monitoring system was implemented by adding pressure transducers in the Casagrande cells and by equipping the old inclinometers with in-place probes, to allow a remote reading of the instruments and data recording. This system allowed to identify that the very small average rate of movement observed over one year (1.0–1.5 cm/year) is the sum of small single sliding processes, strictly linked to the sequence of rainfall events. Moreover, data recorded by in-place inclinometer probes detected the response of the landslide to the seismic sequence of 2016 occurring in central Italy. Such in situ measurements during earthquakes, indeed rarely available in the scientific literature, allowed an assessment of the critical acceleration of the sliding mass by means of a back-analysis. The possibility to distinguish the difference between seismic and rainfall induced displacements of the slope underlines the potential of continuous monitoring in the diagnosis of landslide mechanisms.