A space hurricane over the Earth's polar ionosphere

Predicting global thermospheric neutral density during periods with high geomagnetic activity

Estimating global and multi-level Thermosphere Neutral Density (TND) is important for studying coupling processes within the upper atmosphere, and for applications like orbit prediction. Models are applied for predicting TND changes, however, their performance can be improved by accounting for the simplicity of model structure and the sampling limitations of model inputs. In this study, a simultaneous Calibration and Data Assimilation (C/DA) algorithm is applied to integrate freely available CHAMP, GRACE, and Swarm derived TND measurements into the NRLMSISE-00 model. The improved model, called 'C/DA-NRLMSISE-00', and its outputs fit to these measured TNDs, are used to produce global TND fields at arbitrary altitudes (with the same vertical coverage as the NRLMSISE-00). Seven periods, between 2003-2020 that are associated with relatively high geomagnetic activity selected to investigate these fields, within which available models represent difficulties to provide reasonable TND estimates. Independent validations are performed with along-track TNDs that were not used within the C/DA framework, as well as with the outputs of other models such as the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 and the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. The numerical results indicate an average 52%, 50%, 56%, 25%, 47%, 54%, and 63% improvement in the Root Mean Squared Errors of the short term TND forecasts of C/DA-NRLMSISE00 compared to the along-track TND estimates of GRACE (2003, altitude 490 km), GRACE (2004, altitude 486 km), CHAMP (2008, altitude 343 km), GOCE (2010, altitude 270 km), Swarm-B (2015, altitude 520 km), Swarm-B (2017, altitude 514 km), and Swarm-B (2020, altitude 512 km), respectively.

Local Mapping of Polar Ionospheric Electrodynamics

An accurate description of the state of the ionosphere is crucial for understanding the physics of Earth's coupling to space, including many potentially hazardous space weather phenomena. To support this effort, ground networks of magnetometer stations, optical instruments, and radars have been deployed. However, the spatial coverage of such networks is naturally restricted by the distribution of land mass and access to necessary infrastructure. We present a new technique for local mapping of polar ionospheric electrodynamics, for use in regions with high data density, such as Fennoscandia and North America. The technique is based on spherical elementary current systems (SECS), which were originally developed to map ionospheric currents. We expand their use by linking magnetic field perturbations in space and on ground, convection measurements from space and ground, and conductance measurements, via the ionospheric Ohm's law. The result is a technique that is similar to the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) technique, but tailored for regional analyses of arbitrary spatial extent and resolution. We demonstrate our technique on synthetic data, and with real data from three different regions. We also discuss limitations of the technique and potential areas for improvement.