Approximate Bayesian Computation of radiocarbon and paleoenvironmental record shows population resilience on Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

Island-wide characterization of agricultural production challenges the demographic collapse hypothesis for Rapa Nui (Easter Island)

Communities in resource-poor areas face health, food production, sustainability, and overall survival challenges. Consequently, they are commonly featured in global debates surrounding societal collapse. Rapa Nui (Easter Island) is often used as an example of how overexploitation of limited resources resulted in a catastrophic population collapse. A vital component of this narrative is that the rapid rise and fall of pre-contact Rapanui population growth rates was driven by the construction and overexploitation of once extensive rock gardens. However, the extent of island-wide rock gardening, while key for understanding food systems and demography, must be better understood. Here, we use shortwave infrared (SWIR) satellite imagery and machine learning to generate an island-wide estimate of rock gardening and reevaluate previous population size models for Rapa Nui. We show that the extent of this agricultural infrastructure is substantially less than previously claimed and likely could not have supported the large population sizes that have been assumed.

Towards understanding human-environment feedback loops: the Atacama Desert case

The overall trajectory for the human-environment interaction has been punctuated by demographic boom-and-bust cycles, phases of growth/overshooting as well as of expansion/contraction in productivity. Although this pattern has been explained in terms of an interplay between population growth, social upscaling, ecosystem engineering and climate variability, the evoked demographic-resource-complexity mechanisms have not been empirically tested. By integrating proxy data for population sizes, palaeoclimate and internal societal factors into empirical modelling approaches from the population dynamic theory, we evaluated how endogenous (population sizes, warfare and social upscaling) and exogenous (climate) variables module the dynamic in past agrarian societies. We focused on the inland Atacama Desert, where populations developed agriculture activities by engineering arid and semi-arid landscapes during the last 2000 years. Our modelling approach indicates that these populations experienced a boom-and-bust dynamic over the last millennia, which was coupled to structure feedback between population sizes, hydroclimate, social upscaling, warfare and ecosystem engineering. Thus, the human-environment loop appears closely linked with cooperation, competition, limiting resources and the ability of problem-solving. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

From the Ground Up: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Past Fertility and Population Narratives

Population dynamics form a crucial component of human narratives in the past. Population responses and adaptations not only tell us about the human past but also offer insights into the present and future. Though an area of substantial interest, it is also one of often limited evidence. As such, traditional techniques from demography and anthropology must be adapted considerably to accommodate the available archaeological and ethnohistoric data and an appropriate inferential framework must be applied. In this article, I propose a ground-up, multidisciplinary approach to the study of past population dynamics. Specifically, I develop an empirically informed path diagram based on modern fertility interactions and sources of past environmental, sociocultural, and biological evidence to guide high-resolution case studies. The proposed approach is dynamic and can evolve in response to data inputs as case studies are undertaken. In application, this approach will create new knowledge of past population processes which can greatly enhance our presently limited knowledge of high-frequency, small-scale demographic fluctuations, as well as contribute to our broader understanding of significant population disturbances and change throughout human history.

Human societal development: is it an evolutionary transition in individuality?

An evolutionary transition in individuality (ETI) occurs when a previously independent organism becomes a lower level unit within a higher hierarchical level (for example, cells in an organism, ants in a colony). Using archaeological and historical accounts from the last 12 000 years, I empirically examine the proposition that human society increasingly functions as a higher hierarchical level within which individuals integrate as lower level units. I evaluate human societal development with respect to three criteria that together indicate complexity in biological systems and serve as an operationalization scheme for ETIs: size, inseparability and specialization. The size of the largest polity has increased seven orders of magnitude, from hundreds to billions. Inseparability became nearly complete since Mesopotamian city-states, following the first appearance of intricate specialization (division of labour). Connectivity within a polity has increased rapidly during the last few centuries, and particularly within the last few decades. In view of these results, I formulate the following hypothesis: human society is undergoing an evolutionary transition in individuality, driven by socio-cultural-technological processes. This proposition requires a detailed theoretical basis and further empirical testing. I propose four predictions derived from the hypothesis that may be used to test it. This article is part of the theme issue 'Human socio-cultural evolution in light of evolutionary transitions'.

The spread of agriculture in Iberia through Approximate Bayesian Computation and Neolithic projectile tools

In the present article we use geometric microliths (a specific type of arrowhead) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in order to evaluate possible origin points and expansion routes for the Neolithic in the Iberian Peninsula. In order to do so, we divide the Iberian Peninsula in four areas (Ebro river, Catalan shores, Xúquer river and Guadalquivir river) and we sample the geometric microliths existing in the sites with the oldest radiocarbon dates for each zone. On this data, we perform a partial Mantel test with three matrices: geographic distance matrix, cultural distance matrix and chronological distance matrix. After this is done, we simulate a series of partial Mantel tests where we alter the chronological matrix by using an expansion model with randomised origin points, and using the distribution of the observed partial Mantel test’s results as a summary statistic within an Approximate Bayesian Computation-Sequential Monte-Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithm framework. Our results point clearly to a Neolithic expansion route following the Northern Mediterranean, whilst the Southern Mediterranean route could also find support and should be further discussed. The most probable origin points focus on the Xúquer river area.

Formal Tests for Resistance-Resilience in Archaeological Time Series

The study of resilience is a common pathway for scientific data to inform policy and practice towards impending climate change. Consequently, understanding the mechanisms and features that contribute towards building resilience is a key goal of much research on coupled socio-environmental systems. In parallel, archaeology has developed the ambition to contribute to this agenda through its unique focus on cultural dynamics that occur over the very long term. This paper argues that archaeological studies of resilience are limited in scope and potential impact by incomplete operational definitions of resilience, itself a multifaceted and contested concept. This lack of interdisciplinary engagement fundamentally limits archaeology’s ability to contribute meaningfully to understanding factors behind the emergence and maintenance of long-term societal resilience, a topic of significant interest that the field is in theory ideally positioned to address. Here, we introduce resilience metrics drawn from ecology and develop case studies to illustrate their potential utility for archaeological studies. We achieve this by extending methods for formally measuring resistance, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbances; and resilience, its capacity to recover from disturbances, with a novel significance test for palaeodemographic data. Building on statistical permutation and post-hoc tests available in the rcarbon package in the R statistical environment, we apply our adapted resilience-resistance framework to summed probability distributions of calibrated radiocarbon dates drawn from the Atlantic Forest of eastern Brazil. We deploy these methods to investigate cross-sectional trends across three recognised biogeographical zones of the Atlantic Forest domain, against the backdrop of prehistoric phases of heightened hydroclimatic variability. Our analysis uncovers novel centennial-scale spatial structure in the resilience of palaeodemographic growth rates. In addition to the case-specific findings, we suggest that adapting formal metrics can help archaeology create impact and engagement beyond relatively narrow disciplinary concerns. To this end, we supply code and data to replicate our palaeodemographic analyses to enable their use and adaptation to other archaeological problems.

Bayesian analyses question the role of climate in Chulmun demography

We investigate the relationship between climatic and demographic events in Korea during the Chulmun period (10,000-3,500 cal. BP) by analyzing paleoenvironmental proxies and 14C dates. We focus on testing whether a cooling climate, and its potential negative impact on millet productivity around the mid 5th-millennium cal. BP, triggered the population decline suggested by the archaeological record. We employ a Bayesian approach that estimates the temporal relationship between climatic events and change-points in the rate of growth in human population as inferred from radiocarbon time frequency data. Our results do not support the climate-induced population decline hypothesis for three reasons. First, our Bayesian analyses suggest that the cooling event occurred after the start of the population decline inferred from the radiocarbon time-frequency record. Second, we did not find evidence showing a significant reduction of millet-associated dates occurring during the cooling climate. Third, we detected different magnitudes of decline in the radiocarbon time-frequency data in the inland and coastal regions, indicating that the even if cooling episodes were ultimately responsible of these population 'busts', their impact was most likely distinct between these regions. We discuss our results highlighting the long tradition of mobility-based subsistence strategy in coastal regions as a potential factor contributing to the regional differences we were able to detect.