1
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Zhong Y, Tan N, Abell JT, Sun C, Kaboth-Bahr S, Ford HL, Herbert TD, Pullen A, Horikawa K, Yu J, Struve T, Weber ME, Clift PD, Larrasoaña JC, Lu Z, Yang H, Bahr A, Chen T, Zhang J, Wei C, Xia W, Yang S, Liu Q. Role of land-ocean interactions in stepwise Northern Hemisphere Glaciation. Nat Commun 2024; 15:6711. [PMID: 39112487 PMCID: PMC11306600 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51127-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2024] [Accepted: 07/30/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
The investigation of triggers causing the onset and intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) during the late Pliocene is essential for understanding the global climate system, with important implications for projecting future climate changes. Despite their critical roles in the global climate system, influences of land-ocean interactions on high-latitude ice sheets remain largely unexplored. Here, we present a high-resolution Asian dust record from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1208 in the North Pacific, which lies along the main route of the westerlies. Our data indicate that atmosphere-land-ocean interactions affected aeolian dust emissions through modulating moisture and vegetation in dust source regions, highlighting a critical role of terrestrial systems in initiating the NHG as early as 3.6 Myr ago. Combined with additional multi-proxy and model results, we further show that westerly wind strength was enhanced, mainly at low-to-middle tropospheric levels, during major glacial events at about 3.3 and 2.7 Myr ago. We suggest that coupled responses of Earth's surface dynamics and atmospheric circulation in the Plio-Pleistocene likely involved feedbacks related to changes in paleogeography, ocean circulation, and global climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Zhong
- Centre for Marine Magnetism (CM2), Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, PR China.
| | - Ning Tan
- Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China.
| | - Jordan T Abell
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, 18015, USA
- Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Chijun Sun
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| | - Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr
- Institute of Geological Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, 12249, Germany
| | - Heather L Ford
- School of Geography, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Timothy D Herbert
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, 02912, USA
| | - Alex Pullen
- Department of Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, USA
| | - Keiji Horikawa
- Faculty of Science, Academic Assembly, University of Toyama, Toyama, Japan
| | - Jimin Yu
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
- Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
| | - Torben Struve
- Marine Isotope Geochemistry, Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment (ICBM), University of Oldenburg, 26129, Oldenburg, Germany
| | - Michael E Weber
- Institute for Geosciences, Department of Geochemistry and Petrology, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - Peter D Clift
- Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, London, WC1E 6BS, UK
| | - Juan C Larrasoaña
- Departamento de Ciencias, Universidad Pública de Navarra, 31006, Pamplona, Spain
- IGME, CSIC, Zaragoza Headquarters, Campus Aula Dei, 50059, Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Zhengyao Lu
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Hu Yang
- Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, China
| | - André Bahr
- Institute of Earth Sciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, 69120, Germany
| | - Tianyu Chen
- State Key Laboratory for Mineral Deposit Research, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China
| | - Jingyu Zhang
- Centre for Marine Magnetism (CM2), Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, PR China
| | - Cao Wei
- Centre for Marine Magnetism (CM2), Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, PR China
| | - Wenyue Xia
- Centre for Marine Magnetism (CM2), Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, PR China
| | - Sheng Yang
- Centre for Marine Magnetism (CM2), Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, PR China
| | - Qingsong Liu
- Centre for Marine Magnetism (CM2), Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, PR China.
- Shanghai Sheshan National Geophysical Observatory, Shanghai, China.
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2
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Francis D, Fonseca R. Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10279. [PMID: 38704514 PMCID: PMC11069548 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60976-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2024] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/06/2024] Open
Abstract
Observational and reanalysis datasets reveal a northward shift of the convective regions over northern Africa in summer and an eastward shift in winter in the last four decades, with the changes in the location and intensity of the thermal lows and subtropical highs also modulating the dust loading and cloud cover over the Middle East and North Africa region. A multi-model ensemble from ten models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-sixth phase gives skillful simulations when compared to in-situ measurements and generally captures the trends in the ERA-5 data over the historical period. For the most extreme climate change scenario and towards the end of the twenty-first century, the subtropical highs are projected to migrate poleward by 1.5°, consistent with the projected expansion of the Hadley Cells, with a weakening of the tropical easterly jet in the summer by up to a third and a strengthening of the subtropical jet in winter typically by 10% except over the eastern Mediterranean where the storm track is projected to shift polewards. The length of the seasons is projected to remain about the same, suggesting the warming is likely to be felt uniformly throughout the year.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diana Francis
- Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab, Earth Sciences Department, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, P. O. Box 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
| | - Ricardo Fonseca
- Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab, Earth Sciences Department, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, P. O. Box 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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3
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Jo KN. Holocene westerly jet dynamics and the regional hydroclimatic barrier. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2404933121. [PMID: 38657054 PMCID: PMC11067021 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2404933121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/26/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kyoung-nam Jo
- Department of Geology, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon24341, Republic of Korea
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4
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Wang Z, Lei Y, Che H, Wu B, Zhang X. Aerosol forcing regulating recent decadal change of summer water vapor budget over the Tibetan Plateau. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2233. [PMID: 38472204 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46635-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Accepted: 03/05/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the Asian water tower, has been getting wetter since the 1970s. However, the primary drivers behind this phenomenon are still highly controversial. Here, we isolate the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHG), aerosols, natural forcings and internal climate variability on the decadal change of summer water vapor budget (WVB) over the TP using multi-model ensemble simulations. We show that an anomalous Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere travelling eastward from central Europe and equatorward temperature gradient in eastern China due to the inhomogeneous aerosol forcing in Eurasia jointly contribute to anomalous easterly winds over the eastern TP. Such anomalous easterly winds result in a significant decrease in water vapor export from the eastern boundary of the TP and dominate the enhanced summer WVB over the TP during 1979-2014. Our results highlight that spatial variation of aerosol forcing can be used as an important indicator to project future WVB over the TP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhili Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
| | - Yadong Lei
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Huizheng Che
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
| | - Bo Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
| | - Xiaoye Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
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5
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Lin L, Hu C, Wang B, Wu R, Wu Z, Yang S, Cai W, Li P, Xiong X, Chen D. Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2155. [PMID: 38461160 PMCID: PMC10925044 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46543-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 03/11/2024] Open
Abstract
The summer Eurasian westerly jet is reported to become weaker and wavier, thus promoting the frequent weather extremes. However, the primary driver of the changing jet stream remains in debate, mainly due to the regionality and seasonality of the Eurasian jet. Here we report a sharp increase, by approximately 140%, in the interannual variability of the summertime East Asian jet (EAJ) since the end of twentieth century. Such interdecadal change induces considerable changes in the large-scale circulation pattern across Eurasia, and consequently weather and climate extremes including heatwaves, droughts, and Asian monsoonal rainfall regime shifts. The trigger mainly emerges from preceding February North Atlantic seesaw called Scandinavian pattern (contributing to 81.1 ± 2.9% of the enhanced EAJ variability), which harnesses the "cross-seasonal-coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge" to exert a delayed impact on EAJ and thus aids relevant predictions five months in advance. However, projections from state-of-the-art models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing exhibit no similar circulation changes. This sheds light on that, at the interannual timescale, a substantial portion of recently increasing variability in the East Asian sector of the Eurasian westerly jet arises from unforced natural variability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lifei Lin
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University; and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
| | - Chundi Hu
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China.
| | - Bin Wang
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
| | - Renguang Wu
- School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Zeming Wu
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
| | - Song Yang
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University; and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
- Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China
| | - Wenju Cai
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System/Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Sanya Oceanographic Institution, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
- State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science & College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Peiliang Li
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
| | - Xuejun Xiong
- Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China
| | - Dake Chen
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University; and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
- State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment DynamicsSecond Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou, China
- School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
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6
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Jiang J, Zhou T, Qian Y, Li C, Song F, Li H, Chen X, Zhang W, Chen Z. Precipitation regime changes in High Mountain Asia driven by cleaner air. Nature 2023; 623:544-549. [PMID: 37821703 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06619-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/06/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023]
Abstract
High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced a spatial imbalance in water resources in recent decades, partly because of a dipolar pattern of precipitation changes known as South Drying-North Wetting1. These changes can be influenced by both human activities and internal climate variability2,3. Although climate projections indicate a future widespread wetting trend over HMA1,4, the timing and mechanism of the transition from a dipolar to a monopolar pattern remain unknown. Here we demonstrate that the observed dipolar precipitation change in HMA during summer is primarily driven by westerly- and monsoon-associated precipitation patterns. The weakening of the Asian westerly jet, caused by the uneven emission of anthropogenic aerosols, favoured a dipolar precipitation trend from 1951 to 2020. Moreover, the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation induces an out-of-phase precipitation change between the core region of the South Asian monsoon and southeastern HMA. Under medium- or high-emission scenarios, corresponding to a global warming of 0.6-1.1 °C compared with the present, the dipolar pattern is projected to shift to a monopolar wetting trend in the 2040s. This shift in precipitation patterns is mainly attributed to the intensified jet stream resulting from reduced emissions of anthropogenic aerosols. These findings underscore the importance of considering the impact of aerosol emission reduction in future social planning by policymakers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Jiang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Tianjun Zhou
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
- University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Yun Qian
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - Chao Li
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Fengfei Song
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Hongmei Li
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Xiaolong Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Wenxia Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Ziming Chen
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
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7
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Nair HRCR, Budhavant K, Manoj MR, Andersson A, Satheesh SK, Ramanathan V, Gustafsson Ö. Aerosol demasking enhances climate warming over South Asia. NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 2023; 6:39. [PMID: 37252186 PMCID: PMC10199435 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00367-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Anthropogenic aerosols mask the climate warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the absence of observational constraints, large uncertainties plague the estimates of this masking effect. Here we used the abrupt reduction in anthropogenic emissions observed during the COVID-19 societal slow-down to characterize the aerosol masking effect over South Asia. During this period, the aerosol loading decreased substantially and our observations reveal that the magnitude of this aerosol demasking corresponds to nearly three-fourths of the CO2-induced radiative forcing over South Asia. Concurrent measurements over the northern Indian Ocean unveiled a ~7% increase in the earth's surface-reaching solar radiation (surface brightening). Aerosol-induced atmospheric solar heating decreased by ~0.4 K d-1. Our results reveal that under clear sky conditions, anthropogenic emissions over South Asia lead to nearly 1.4 W m-2 heating at the top of the atmosphere during the period March-May. A complete phase-out of today's fossil fuel combustion to zero-emission renewables would result in rapid aerosol demasking, while the GHGs linger on.
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Affiliation(s)
- H. R. C. R. Nair
- Department of Environmental Science and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Krishnakant Budhavant
- Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo, H. Dh. Hanimaadhoo, Maldives
- Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
| | - M. R. Manoj
- Department of Environmental Science and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
| | - August Andersson
- Department of Environmental Science and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - S. K. Satheesh
- Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
- Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
- DST-Centre of Excellence in Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
| | - V. Ramanathan
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA USA
| | - Örjan Gustafsson
- Department of Environmental Science and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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8
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Xie X, Myhre G, Shindell D, Faluvegi G, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A, Shi Z, Li X, Xie X, Liu H, Liu X, Liu Y. Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol pollution in South and East Asia induces increased summer precipitation over arid Central Asia. COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 2022; 3:328. [PMID: 36588543 PMCID: PMC9792934 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00660-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Precipitation has increased across the arid Central Asia region over recent decades. However, the underlying mechanisms of this trend are poorly understood. Here, we analyze multi-model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to investigate potential drivers of the observed precipitation trend. We find that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols over remote polluted regions in South and East Asia lead to increased summer precipitation, especially convective and extreme precipitation, in arid Central Asia. Elevated concentrations of sulfate aerosols over remote polluted Asia cause an equatorward shift of the Asian Westerly Jet Stream through a fast response to cooling of the local atmosphere at mid-latitudes. This shift favours moisture supply from low-latitudes and moisture flux convergence over arid Central Asia, which is confirmed by a moisture budget analysis. High levels of absorbing black carbon lead to opposing changes in the Asian Westerly Jet Stream and reduced local precipitation, which can mask the impact of sulfate aerosols. This teleconnection between arid Central Asia precipitation and anthropogenic aerosols in remote Asian polluted regions highlights long-range impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on atmospheric circulations and the hydrological cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoning Xie
- SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China
- CAS Center for Excellence in Quaternary Science and Global Change, Xi’an, China
| | - Gunnar Myhre
- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
| | - Drew Shindell
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, USA
| | - Gregory Faluvegi
- Center for Climate System Research, Columbia University, New York, NY USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY USA
| | | | - Apostolos Voulgarakis
- Department of Physics, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, UK
- School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Crete Greece
| | - Zhengguo Shi
- SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China
| | - Xinzhou Li
- SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China
| | - Xiaoxun Xie
- SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China
| | - Heng Liu
- SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China
- Xi’an Institute for Innovative Earth Environment Research, Xi’an, China
| | - Xiaodong Liu
- SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, China
- College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yangang Liu
- Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY USA
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9
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Rousi E, Kornhuber K, Beobide-Arsuaga G, Luo F, Coumou D. Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia. Nat Commun 2022; 13:3851. [PMID: 35788585 PMCID: PMC9253148 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31432-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2021] [Accepted: 06/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes over the past 42 years. This accelerated trend is linked to atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in the frequency and persistence of double jet stream states over Eurasia. We find that double jet occurrences are particularly important for western European heatwaves, explaining up to 35% of temperature variability. The upward trend in the persistence of double jet events explains almost all of the accelerated heatwave trend in western Europe, and about 30% of it over the extended European region. Those findings provide evidence that in addition to thermodynamical drivers, atmospheric dynamical changes have contributed to the increased rate of European heatwaves, with implications for risk management and potential adaptation strategies. Europe is a heatwave hotspot exhibiting three-to-four times faster upward trends compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes. Here, this accelerated trend is linked to the increased persistence of Eurasian double jets in the upper troposphere.
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Affiliation(s)
- Efi Rousi
- Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Kai Kornhuber
- Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.,Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.,Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga
- International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany.,Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Fei Luo
- Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.,Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands
| | - Dim Coumou
- Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.,Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.,Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands
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