Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests

Decreased cloud cover partially offsets the cooling effects of surface albedo change due to deforestation

Biophysical processes of forests affect climate through the regulation of surface water and heat fluxes, which leads to further effects through the adjustment of clouds and water cycles. These indirect biophysical effects of forests on clouds and their radiative forcing are poorly understood but highly relevant in the context of large-scale deforestation or afforestation, respectively. Here, we provide evidence for local decreases in global low-level clouds and tropical high-level clouds from deforestation through both idealized deforestation simulations with climate models and from observations-driven reanalysis using space-for-time substitution. The decreased cloud cover can be explained by alterations in surface turbulent heat flux, which diminishes uplift and moisture to varying extents. Deforestation-induced reduction in cloud cover warms the climate, partially counteracting the cooling effects of increased surface albedo. The findings from idealized deforestation experiments and space-for-time substitution exhibit disparities, with global average offsets of, respectively, approximately 44% and 26%, suggesting the necessity for further constraints.

Deforestation-induced runoff changes dominated by forest-climate feedbacks

Large-scale deforestation alters water availability through its direct effect on runoff generation and indirect effect through forest-climate feedbacks. However, these direct and indirect effects and their spatial variations are difficult to separate and poorly understood. Here, we develop an attribution framework that combines the Budyko theory and deforestation experiments with climate models, showing that widespread runoff reductions caused by the indirect effect of forest-climate feedbacks can largely offset the direct effect of reduced forest cover on runoff increases. The indirect effect dominates the hydrological responses to deforestation over 63% of deforested areas worldwide. This indirect effect arises from deforestation-induced reductions in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which decrease and increase runoff, respectively, leading to complex patterns of runoff responses. Our findings underscore the importance of forest-climate feedbacks for improved understanding and prediction of climate and hydrological changes caused by deforestation, with profound implications for sustainable management of forests and water resources.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects across Brazilian biomes

We present a methodology designed to study the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our approach involves decomposing the observed changes in temperature patterns into multiple trend, cycle, and seasonal components within a spatio-temporal model. We apply this method to test the hypothesis of a global long-term temperature trend against multiple trends in distinct biomes. Applying this methodology, we delve into the examination of heterogeneity of climate change in Brazil-a country characterized by a spectrum of climate zones. The findings challenge the notion of a global trend, revealing the presence of distinct trends in warming effects, and more accelerated trends for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, indicating a composition between global warming and deforestation in determining changes in permanent temperature patterns.

Carbon storage through China's planted forest expansion

China's extensive planted forests play a crucial role in carbon storage, vital for climate change mitigation. However, the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of China's planted forest area and its carbon storage remain uncaptured. Here we reveal such changes in China's planted forests from 1990 to 2020 using satellite and field data. Results show a doubling of planted forest area, a trend that intensified post-2000. These changes lead to China's planted forest carbon storage increasing from 675.6 ± 12.5 Tg C in 1990 to 1,873.1 ± 16.2 Tg C in 2020, with an average rate of ~ 40 Tg C yr-1. The area expansion of planted forests contributed ~ 53% (637.2 ± 5.4 Tg C) of the total above increased carbon storage in planted forests compared with planted forest growth. This proactive policy-driven expansion of planted forests has catalyzed a swift increase in carbon storage, aligning with China's Carbon Neutrality Target for 2060.

The 2023 Latin America report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for health-centred climate-resilient development

In 2023, a series of climatological and political events unfolded, partly driving forward the global climate and health agenda while simultaneously exposing important disparities and vulnerabilities to climate-related events. On the policy front, a significant step forward was marked by the inaugural Health Day at COP28, acknowledging the profound impacts of climate change on health. However, the first-ever Global Stocktake showed an important gap between the current progress and the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement, underscoring the urgent need for further and decisive action. From a Latin American perspective, some questions arise: How do we achieve the change that is needed? How to address the vulnerabilities to climate change in a region with long-standing social inequities? How do we promote intersectoral collaboration to face a complex problem such as climate change? The debate is still ongoing, and in many instances, it is just starting. The renamed regional centre Lancet Countdown Latin America (previously named Lancet Countdown South America) expanded its geographical scope adding Mexico and five Central American countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Panama, as a response to the need for stronger collaboration in a region with significant social disparities, including research capacities and funding. The centre is an independent and multidisciplinary collaboration that tracks the links between health and climate change in Latin America, following the global Lancet Countdown's methodologies and five domains. The Lancet Countdown Latin America work hinges on the commitment of 23 regional academic institutions, United Nations agencies, and 34 researchers who generously contribute their time and expertise. Building from the first report, the 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown Latin America, presents 34 indicators that track the relationship between health and climate change up to 2022, aiming at providing evidence to public decision-making with the purpose of improving the health and wellbeing of Latin American populations and reducing social inequities through climate actions focusing on health. This report shows that Latin American populations continue to observe a growing exposure to changing climatic conditions. A warming trend has been observed across all countries in Latin America, with severe direct impacts. In 2022, people were exposed to ambient temperatures, on average, 0.38 °C higher than in 1986-2005, with Paraguay experiencing the highest anomaly (+1.9 °C), followed by Argentina (+1.2 °C) and Uruguay (+0.9 °C) (indicator 1.1.1). In 2013-2022, infants were exposed to 248% more heatwave days and people over 65 years old were exposed to 271% more heatwave days than in 1986-2005 (indicator 1.1.2). Also, compared to 1991-2000, in 2013-2022, there were 256 and 189 additional annual hours per person, during which ambient heat posed at least moderate and high risk of heat stress during light outdoor physical activity in Latin America, respectively (indicator 1.1.3). Finally, the region had a 140% increase in heat-related mortality from 2000-2009 to 2013-2022 (indicator 1.1.4). Changes in ecosystems have led to an increased risk of wildfires, exposing individuals to very or extremely high fire danger for more extended periods (indicator 1.2.1). Additionally, the transmission potential for dengue by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes has risen by 54% from 1951-1960 to 2013-2022 (indicator 1.3), which aligns with the recent outbreaks and increasing dengue cases observed across Latin America in recent months. Based on the 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown Latin America, there are three key messages that Latin America needs to further explore and advance for a health-centred climate-resilient development. Latin American countries require intersectoral public policies that simultaneously increase climate resilience, reduce social inequities, improve population health, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The findings show that adaptation policies in Latin America remain weak, with a pressing need for robust vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments to address climate risks effectively. Unfortunately, such assessments are scarce. Up to 2021, Brazil is the only country that has completed and officially reported a V&A to the 2021 Global Survey conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO). Argentina, Guatemala, and Panama have also conducted them, but they have not been reported (indicator 2.1.1). Similarly, efforts in developing and implementing Health National Adaptation Plans (HNAPs) are varied and limited in scope. Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay are the only countries that have an HNAP (indicator 2.1.2). Moreover, self-reported city-level climate change risk assessments are very limited in the region (indicator 2.1.3). The collaboration between meteorological and health sectors remains insufficient, with only Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Guatemala self-reporting some level of integration (indicator 2.2.1), hindering comprehensive responses to climate-related health risks in the region. Additionally, despite the urgent need for action, there has been minimal progress in increasing urban greenspaces across the region since 2015, with only Colombia, Nicaragua, and Venezuela showing slight improvements (indicator 2.2.2). Compounding these challenges is the decrease in funding for climate change adaptation projects in Latin America, as evidenced by the 16% drop in funds allocated by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) in 2022 compared to 2021. Alarmingly, none of the funds approved in 2022 were directed toward climate change and health projects, highlighting a critical gap in addressing health-related climate risks (indicator 2.2.3). From a vulnerability perspective, the Mosquito Risk Index (MoRI) indicates an overall decrease in severe mosquito-borne disease risk in the region due to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) (indicator 2.3.1). Brazil and Paraguay were the only countries that showed an increase in this indicator. It is worth noting that significant temporal variation within and between countries still persists, suggesting inadequate preparedness for climate-related changes. Overall, population health is not solely determined by the health sector, nor are climate policies a sole responsibility of the environmental sector. More and stronger intersectoral collaboration is needed to pave development pathways that consider solid adaptation to climate change, greater reductions of GHG emissions, and that increase social equity and population health. These policies involve sectors such as finance, transport, energy, housing, health, and agriculture, requiring institutional structures and policy instruments that allow long-term intersectoral collaboration. Latin American countries need to accelerate an energy transition that prioritises people's health and wellbeing, reduces energy poverty and air pollution, and maximises health and economic gains. In Latin America, there is a notable disparity in energy transition, with electricity generation from coal increasing by an average of 2.6% from 1991-2000 to 2011-2020, posing a challenge to efforts aimed at phasing out coal (indicator 3.1.1). However, this percentage increase is conservative as it may not include all the fossil fuels for thermoelectric electricity generation, especially during climate-related events and when hydropower is affected (Panel 4). Yet, renewable energy sources have been growing, increasing by an average of 5.7% during the same period. Access to clean fuels for cooking remains a concern, with 46.3% of the rural population in Central America and 23.3% in South America lacking access to clean fuels in 2022 (indicator 3.1.2). It is crucial to highlight the concerning overreliance on fossil fuels, particularly liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), as a primary cooking fuel. A significant majority of Latin American populations, approximately 74.6%, rely on LPG for cooking. Transitioning to cleaner heating and cooking alternatives could also have a health benefit by reducing household air pollution-related mortality. Fossil fuels continue to dominate road transport energy in Latin America, accounting for 96%, although some South American countries are increasing the use of biofuels (indicator 3.1.3). Premature mortality attributable to fossil-fuel-derived PM2.5 has shown varied trends across countries, increasing by 3.9% from 2005 to 2020 across Latin America, which corresponds to 123.5 premature deaths per million people (indicator 3.2.1). The Latin American countries with the highest premature mortality rate attributable to PM2.5 in 2020 were Chile, Peru, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Paraguay. Of the total premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 in 2020, 19.1% was from transport, 12.3% from households, 11.6% from industry, and 11% from agriculture. From emission and capture of GHG perspective, commodity-driven deforestation and expansion of agricultural land remain major contributors to tree cover loss in the region, accounting for around 80% of the total loss (indicator 3.3). Additionally, animal-based food production in Latin America contributes 85% to agricultural CO2 equivalent emissions, with Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Paraguay, and Uruguay ranking highest in per capita emissions (indicator 3.4.1). From a health perspective, in 2020, approximately 870,000 deaths were associated with imbalanced diets, of which 155,000 (18%) were linked to high intake of red and processed meat and dairy products (indicator 3.4.2). Energy transition in Latin America is still in its infancy, and as a result, millions of people are currently exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution and energy poverty (i.e., lack of access to essential energy sources or services). As shown in this report, the levels of air pollution, outdoors and indoors, are a significant problem in the whole region, with marked disparities between urban and rural areas. In 2022, Peru, Chile, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, El Salvador, Brazil, Uruguay, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua were in the top 100 most polluted countries globally. Transitioning to cleaner sources of energy, phasing out fossil fuels, and promoting better energy efficiency in the industrial and housing sectors are not only climate mitigation measures but also huge health and economic opportunities for more prosperous and healthy societies. Latin American countries need to increase climate finance through permanent fiscal commitments and multilateral development banks to pave climate-resilient development pathways. Climate change poses significant economic costs, with investments in mitigation and adaptation measures progressing slowly. In 2022, economic losses due to weather-related extreme events in Latin America were US$15.6 billion -an amount mainly driven by floods and landslides in Brazil-representing 0.28% of Latin America's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (indicator 4.1.1). In contrast to high-income countries, most of these losses lack insurance coverage, imposing a substantial financial strain on affected families and governments. Heat-related mortality among individuals aged 65 and older in Latin America reached alarming levels, with losses exceeding the equivalent of the average income of 451,000 people annually (indicator 4.1.2). Moreover, the total potential income loss due to heat-related labour capacity reduction amounted to 1.34% of regional GDP, disproportionately affecting the agriculture and construction sectors (indicator 4.1.3). Additionally, the economic toll of premature mortality from air pollution was substantial, equivalent to a significant portion of regional GDP (0.61%) (indicator 4.1.4). On a positive note, clean energy investments in the region increased in 2022, surpassing fossil fuel investments. However, in 2020, all countries reviewed continued to offer net-negative carbon prices, revealing fossil fuel subsidies totalling US$23 billion. Venezuela had the highest net subsidies relative to current health expenditure (123%), followed by Argentina (10.5%), Bolivia (10.3%), Ecuador (8.3%), and Chile (5.6%) (indicator 4.2.1). Fossil fuel-based energy is today more expensive than renewable energy. Fossil fuel burning drives climate change and damages the environment on which people depend, and air pollution derived from the burning of fossil fuels causes seven million premature deaths each year worldwide, along with a substantial burden of disease. Transitioning to sustainable, zero-emission energy sources, fostering healthier food systems, and expediting adaptation efforts promise not only environmental benefits but also significant economic gains. However, to implement mitigation and adaptation policies that also improve social wellbeing and prosperity, stronger and solid financial systems are needed. Climate finance in Latin American countries is scarce and strongly depends on political cycles, which threatens adequate responses to the current and future challenges. Progress on the climate agenda is lagging behind the urgent pace required. While engagement with the intersection of health and climate change is increasing, government involvement remains inadequate. Newspaper coverage of health and climate change has been on the rise, peaking in 2022, yet the proportion of climate change articles discussing health has declined over time (indicator 5.1). Although there has been significant growth in the number of scientific papers focusing on Latin America, it still represents less than 4% of global publications on the subject (indicator 5.3). And, while health was mentioned by most Latin American countries at the UN General Debate in 2022, only a few addressed the intersection of health and climate change, indicating a lack of awareness at the governmental level (indicator 5.4). The 2023 Lancet Countdown Latin America report underscores the cascading and compounding health impacts of anthropogenic climate change, marked by increased exposure to heatwaves, wildfires, and vector-borne diseases. Specifically, for Latin America, the report emphasises three critical messages: the urgent action to implement intersectoral public policies that enhance climate resilience across the region; the pressing need to prioritise an energy transition that focuses on health co-benefits and wellbeing, and lastly, that need for increasing climate finance by committing to sustained fiscal efforts and engaging with multilateral development banks. By understanding the problems, addressing the gaps, and taking decisive action, Latin America can navigate the challenges of climate change, fostering a more sustainable and resilient future for its population. Spanish and Portuguese translated versions of this Summary can be found in Appendix B and C, respectively. The full translated report in Spanish is available in Appendix D.

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth's finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Tree-level landscape transitions and changes in carbon storage throughout the mine life cycle

Opencast mining activities destroy native vegetation, directly impacting the carbon sequestration capacity of the regional ecosystem. Restoring tree species have significant impacts on carbon storage. However, changes in carbon storage across tree-level landscape and the impact of tree-level landscape transitions on carbon storage remain poorly described in the literature, and this information is urgently needed to support management decisions. In this study, we combined field data and remote sensing techniques to create field data-driven maps of the tree-level landscape. This enabled the assessment of carbon storage and quantification of the impact of tree-level landscape transitions on carbon storage. We founded that carbon storage rises in initial/stable stages, decreases in development stage during mining expansion and reclamation. The choice of restoration tree species significantly influenced carbon storage. Pinus tabuliformis-R. pseudoacacia accumulated more carbon storage, making it a more suitable model for ecological reclamation of Pingshuo opencast mine. Furthermore, changes in carbon storage are influenced by land-use policies. Land-use policies and reclamation efforts counterbalance carbon loss associated with construction. Various tree-level landscape transitions were examined, with Pinus tabuliformis transitions notably affecting carbon storage, offering insights for ecological reclamation planning. Our research provides a reference for carbon storage assessment in opencast mining areas, enhances understanding of carbon storage changes in mining areas, assists in formulating ecological reclamation plans, and contributes to the "dual‑carbon" goals and climate change mitigation.

Environmental tipping points for global soil carbon fixation microorganisms

Carbon fixation microorganisms (CFMs) are important components of the soil carbon cycle. However, the global distribution of CFMs and whether they will exceed the environmental tipping points remain unclear. According to the machine learning models, total carbon content, nitrogen fertilizer, and precipitation play dominant roles in CFM abundance. Obvious stimulation and inhibition effects on CFM abundance only happened at low levels of total carbon and precipitation, where the tipping points were 6.1 g·kg-1 and 22.38 mm, respectively. The abundance of CFMs in response to nitrogen fertilizer changed from positive to negative (tipping point at 9.45 kg ha-1·y-1). Approximately 46% of CFM abundance decline happened in cropland at 2100. Our work presents the distribution of carbon-fixing microorganisms on a global scale and then points out the sensitive areas with significant abundance changes. The previously described information will provide references for future soil quality prediction and policy decision-making.

Amazon deforestation causes strong regional warming

Tropical deforestation impacts the climate through complex land-atmosphere interactions causing local and regional warming. However, whilst the impacts of deforestation on local temperature are well understood, the regional (nonlocal) response is poorly quantified. Here, we used remote-sensed observations of forest loss and dry season land-surface temperature during the period 2001 to 2020 to demonstrate that deforestation of the Amazon caused strong warming at distances up to 100 km away from the forest loss. We apply a machine learning approach to show nonlocal warming due to forest loss at 2-100 km length scales increases the warming due to deforestation by more than a factor 4, from 0.16 K to 0.71 K for each 10-percentage points of forest loss. We estimate that rapid future deforestation under a strong inequality scenario could cause dry season warming of 0.96 K across Mato Grosso state in southern Brazil over the period 2020 to 2050. Reducing deforestation could reduce future warming caused by forest loss to 0.4 K. Our results demonstrate the contribution of tropical deforestation to regional climate warming and the potential for reduced deforestation to deliver regional climate adaptation and resilience with important implications for sustainable management of the Amazon.

Optimal forest management for carbon sequestration, timber, and bioenergy production in Vietnam using an extended full-cycle carbon accounting method

Using an extended full-cycle carbon model from the Faustmann framework, which allows for management strategies of several uses concurrently implemented in the same area of forest, this paper investigates the selection of management objectives that are beneficial and optimal for forest plantations in Vietnam. Three scenarios are considered: Scenario 1 investigates the management objective of maximizing the land economic value (LEV) of timber as a single production. Scenario 2 investigates the joint production of timber and bioenergy sources. Scenario 3 analyzes the joint production of timber, bioenergy production, and carbon sequestration. The findings reveal that if growers pursue a timber management objective (Scenario 1), the farming business only provides considerable benefits under the government-subsidized credit scheme of 8.4%. For a higher non-subsidized interest rate of 15.24% of commercial banks, such gains reduce substantially and become negative value under the mean interest rate of 19.08% of private credit sources. Altering the management objective to a joint production of timber and raw bioenergy production (Scenario 2) will boost the LEV by a moderate level, but at the expense of timber production and thus carbon stock. However, the reduction tendency of timber and carbon balance is not substantial due mainly to the relatively small proportion of bioenergy production compared to timber production; therefore, decision-making frameworks targeting carbon uptake may be capable of incorporating such levels of confliction. Further internalizing the carbon value of the forest into management objectives generally leads to a longer rotation length, thus improving both carbon sequestration and income gains. Shifting the current timber-dominant management objective to a joint production of timber and bioenergy sources, or, alternatively, a joint production of timber, bioenergy production, and carbon sequestration when the carbon market is emerging, is a good alternative strategy for forest management in Vietnam.

Divergent accumulation of amino sugars and lignins mediated by soil functional carbon pools under tropical forest conversion

Tropical primary forests are being destroyed at an alarming rate and converted for other land uses which is expected to greatly influence soil carbon (C) cycling. However, our understanding of how tropical forest conversions affect the accumulation of compounds in soil functional C pools remains unclear. Here, we collected soils from primary forests (PF), secondary forests (SF), oil-palm (OP), and rubber plantations (RP), and assessed the accumulation of plant- and microbial-derived compounds within soil organic carbon (SOC), particulate (POC) and mineral-associated (MAOC) organic C. PF conversion to RP greatly decreased SOC, POC, and MAOC concentrations, whereas conversion to SF increased POC concentrations and decreased MAOC concentrations, and conversion to OP only increased POC concentrations. PF conversion to RP decreased lignin concentrations and increased amino sugar concentrations in SOC pools which increased the stability of SOC, whereas conversion to SF only increased the lignin concentrations in POC, and conversion to OP just increased lignin concentrations in POC and decreased it in MAOC. We observed divergent dynamics of amino sugars (decrease) and lignin (increase) in SOC with increasing SOC. Only lignin concentrations increased in POC with increasing POC and amino sugars concentrations decreased in MAOC with increasing MAOC. Conversion to RP significantly decreased soil enzyme activities and microbial biomasses. Lignin accumulation was associated with microbial properties, whereas amino sugar accumulation was mainly associated with soil nutrients and stoichiometries. These results suggest that the divergent accumulation of plant- and microbial-derived C in SOC was delivered by the distribution and original composition of functional C pools under forest conversions. Forest conversions changed the formation and stabilization processes of SOC in the long run which was associated with converted plantations and management. The important roles of soil nutrients and stoichiometry also provide a natural-based solution to enhance SOC sequestration via nutrient management in tropical forests.

The biophysical climate mitigation potential of riparian forest ecosystems in arid Northwest China

Forests influence climate through both the biochemical and biophysical processes, and the impacts of the latter on local climate may be much larger than the former. However, the biophysical effects of afforestation in arid regions have received little attention compared with afforestation in the tropic, temperate and boreal zones. In this study, we combined in situ eddy covariance flux measurements from a neighboring pairs of forested and background desert sites with the decomposed temperature metric (DTM) method to characterize the impacts of arid forests on surface temperature (T_s). A clear-sky, one-dimensional planetary boundary layer (PBL) model was used to estimate the impacts of afforestation on state of regional climate. We showed that despite absorbing more net radiation (35.4 W m^-2) the riparian forests tended to cool T_s (-1.28 °C) on annual basis, but with a significant seasonality. Specifically, afforestation may lead to a net cooling effect from March to September and a slightly warming effect in other months. The DTM method revealed that evapotranspiration played a dominant role in cooling surface temperature, while surface albedo (α) and incoming longwave radiation (L↓) acted together to increase forest surface temperature. From June to September, a shallower, cooler and wetter boundary layer was developed over the forest due to high plant transpiration. In other months, the PBL was slightly deeper and warmer over the forest than that over the desert. Therefore, the riparian forests were important in moderating warming trends in arid regions.

Tropical deforestation causes large reductions in observed precipitation

Tropical forests play a critical role in the hydrological cycle and can influence local and regional precipitation1. Previous work has assessed the impacts of tropical deforestation on precipitation, but these efforts have been largely limited to case studies2. A wider analysis of interactions between deforestation and precipitation-and especially how any such interactions might vary across spatial scales-is lacking. Here we show reduced precipitation over deforested regions across the tropics. Our results arise from a pan-tropical assessment of the impacts of 2003-2017 forest loss on precipitation using satellite, station-based and reanalysis datasets. The effect of deforestation on precipitation increased at larger scales, with satellite datasets showing that forest loss caused robust reductions in precipitation at scales greater than 50 km. The greatest declines in precipitation occurred at 200 km, the largest scale we explored, for which 1 percentage point of forest loss reduced precipitation by 0.25 ± 0.1 mm per month. Reanalysis and station-based products disagree on the direction of precipitation responses to forest loss, which we attribute to sparse in situ tropical measurements. We estimate that future deforestation in the Congo will reduce local precipitation by 8-10% in 2100. Our findings provide a compelling argument for tropical forest conservation to support regional climate resilience.

The spatial and temporal distribution of China’s forest carbon

Introduction

China’s forests have sequestrated a significant amount of carbon over the past two decades. However, it is not clear whether China’s forests will be able to continue to have as much carbon sequestration potential capacity in the future.

Methods

In order to research China’s forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential capacities at spatial and temporal scales, we built a digital forest model for each province of China using the data from The China Forest Resources Report (2014– 2018) and calculated the carbon storage capacity and sequestration potential capacity of each province with the current management practices without considering natural successions.

Results

The results showed that the current forest carbon storage is 10.0 Pg C, and the carbon sequestration potential in the next 40 years (from year 2019 to 2058) will be 5.04 Pg C. Since immature forests account for the majority of current forests, the carbon sequestration capacity of the forest was also high (0.202 Pg C year−1). However, the forest carbon storage reached the maximum with the increase of stand maturity. At this time, if scenarios such as afforestation and reforestation, human and natural disturbances, and natural succession are not considered, the carbon sequestration capacity of forests will continue to decrease. After 90 years, all stands will develop into mature and over-mature forests, and the forest carbon sequestration capacity is 0.008 Pg year−1; and the carbon sequestration rate is ~4% of what it is nowadays. The change trend of forest carbon in each province is consistent with that of the country. In addition, considering the large forest coverage area in China, the differences in tree species and growing conditions, the forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration capacities among provinces were different. The growth rate of carbon density in high-latitude provinces (such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia) was lower than that in the south (Guangdong, Guangxi, or Hunan), but the forest carbon potential was higher.

Discussion

Planning and implementing targeted forest management strategies is the key to increasing forest carbon storage and extending the service time of forest carbon sinks in provinces. In order to reach the national carbon neutrality goals, we recommend that each province have an informative strategic forest management plan.

Revealing the Land Use Volatility Process in Northern Southeast Asia

Frequent land use change has generally been considered as a consequence of human activities. Here, we revealed the land use volatility process in northern Southeast Asia (including parts of Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and China) from 2000 to 2018 with LandTrendr in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform based on the Normalized Burning Index (NBR). The result showed that land use volatility with similar degrees had very obvious aggregation characteristics in time and space in the study area, and the time for the occurrence of land use volatility in adjacent areas was often relatively close. This trend will become more obvious with the intensity of land use volatility. At the same time, land use volatility also has obvious spillover effects, and strong land use volatility will drive changes in the surrounding land. If combined with the land use/cover types, which are closely related to human activities that could have more severe land use volatility, and with the increase of the volatility intensity, the proportion of the land use type with strong land use volatility will gradually increase. Revealing the land use volatility process has a possibility to deepen the understanding of land use change and to help formulate land use policy.

Effects of Driving Factors on Forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) in China’s Loess Plateau by Using Spatial Regression Models

Forests are the main body of carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems and forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important manifestation of forest carbon sequestration. Reasonable and accurate quantification of the relationship between AGB and its driving factors is of great importance for increasing the biomass and function of forests. Remote sensing observations and field measurements can be used to estimate AGB in large areas. To explore the applicability of the panel data models in AGB and its driving factors, we compared the results of panel data models (spatial error model and spatial lag model) with those of geographically weighted regression (GWR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) to quantify the relationship between AGB and its driving factors. Furthermore, we estimated the tree height, diameter at breast height, canopy cover (CC) and species diversity index (Shannon–Wiener index) of Robinia pseudoacacia plantations in Changwu on the Loess Plateau using field data and remote sensing images by a random forest model and estimated soil organic carbon (SOC) contents using laboratory data by ordinary kriging (OK) interpolation. We estimated AGB using the already estimated tree height and diameter at breast height combined with the allometric growth equation. In this study, we estimated SOC contents by OK interpolation, and the accuracy R2 values for each soil layer were greater than 0.81. We estimated diameter at breast height (DBH), CC, SW and tree height (TH) using the random forest, and the accuracy R2 values were 0.85, 0.82, 0.76 and 0.68, respectively. We estimated AGB with random forest and the allometric growth equation and found that the average AGB was 55.80 t/ha. The OLS results showed that the residuals of the OLS regression exhibited obvious spatial correlations and rejected OLS applications. GWR, SEM and SLM were used for spatial regression analysis, and SEM was the best model for explaining the relationship between AGB and its driving factors. We also found that AGB was significantly positively correlated with CC, SW, and 0–60 cm SOC content (p < 0.05) and significantly negatively correlated with slope aspect (p < 0.01). This study provides a new idea for studying the relationship between AGB and its driving factors and provides a basis for practical forest management, increasing biomass, and giving full play to the role of carbon sequestration.