Electrifying passenger road transport in India requires near-term electricity grid decarbonisation

Deep decarbonization potential and implementation path under provincial differences in China's fleet electrification

Fleet electrification is considered to be an important measure for reducing carbon emissions in the road transport industry. Considering the heterogeneity of the NEV market penetration and the vehicle types in different provinces, how to design targeted and time-sequenced road transport decarbonisation reduction strategies has become a key issue that needs to be discussed urgently. In this study, the NEVs ownership in China's 31 provinces is used as an intermediate variable. Considering the process of energy transition and changes in vehicle structure, a two-layer scenario framework that combines Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios and model structure was developed to predict carbon emissions. This study firstly analyzes the electrification process and carbon emission reduction potential of provincial road transport industry by region, vehicle type and stage. The potential for reducing carbon emissions was determined under benchmark, transition, and electrification scenarios. The results indicate that the Pearson Correlation Coefficient-Discrete Wavelet Transform-Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory prediction model has an mean absolute percentage error of 8.583 and an R-squared of 0.975. China's road transportation industry total carbon emissions will reach its peak as early as 2027, due to the rapid implementation of renewable energy and fleet electrification. Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong have set carbon peak targets that can be achieved faster with the transition plan for new energy vehicles to replace fossil fuel vehicles. This paper proposes a timing-responsive deep decarbonization path and policy recommendations for China's road transport industry in sub provincial and time-series settings.

Green hydrogen: Paving the way for India's decarbonization revolution

The potential of green hydrogen to make India self-sufficient and energy-independent is reviewed in this study. We integrated technological advancements, economic analysis, and policy frameworks to provide a comprehensive overview of the green hydrogen landscape in India. This review examines cost reductions in electrolyzer technology, the potential for renewable energy integration, and the socio-economic benefits of green hydrogen adoption. Additionally, the study proposes innovative policy measures tailored to India's unique conditions, such as targeted subsidies and incentives for green hydrogen production and use. The research highlights significant cost reductions and increased renewable power generation as key factors contributing to the economic viability of green hydrogen in India. It underscores the importance of large-scale production and advancements in electrolyzer technology. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the necessity of clear regulatory frameworks, infrastructure development, and financing to support the deployment of a green hydrogen economy in India. By implementing a strategic roadmap for green hydrogen, India can reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and become a major player in the global green hydrogen market. The proposed policy measures and technological advancements are crucial for successfully adopting and deploying green hydrogen, ensuring energy self-sufficiency and long-term economic sustainability for India.

Impact of battery electric vehicle usage on air quality in three Chinese first-tier cities

China, the world leader in automobile production and sales, confronts the challenge of transportation emissions, which account for roughly 10% of its total carbon emissions. This study, utilizing real-world vehicle data from three major Chinese cities, assesses the impact of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) on air quality. Our analysis reveals that BEVs, when replacing gasoline vehicles in their operational phase, significantly reduce emissions, with reductions ranging from 8.72 to 85.71 kg of CO2 per vehicle monthly. The average monthly reduction rate is 9.47%, though this effect is less pronounced during winter. Advanced BEVs, characterized by higher efficiency and newer technology, exhibit greater emission reduction benefits. While private BEVs generally contribute positively to environmental outcomes, taxi BEVs, due to their intensive usage patterns, show less environmental advantage and may sometimes worsen air quality. Looking ahead, we project substantial emission reductions from the replacement of gasoline vehicles with electric alternatives over the next decade. Policymakers are urged to adopt proactive measures, focusing on promoting medium to large electric vehicles and fostering the use of private and ride-hailing electric vehicles.

Estimating the environmental impacts of global lithium-ion battery supply chain: A temporal, geographical, and technological perspective

A sustainable low-carbon transition via electric vehicles will require a comprehensive understanding of lithium-ion batteries' global supply chain environmental impacts. Here, we analyze the cradle-to-gate energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of current and future nickel-manganese-cobalt and lithium-iron-phosphate battery technologies. We consider existing battery supply chains and future electricity grid decarbonization prospects for countries involved in material mining and battery production. Currently, around two-thirds of the total global emissions associated with battery production are highly concentrated in three countries as follows: China (45%), Indonesia (13%), and Australia (9%). On a unit basis, projected electricity grid decarbonization could reduce emissions of future battery production by up to 38% by 2050. An aggressive electric vehicle uptake scenario could result in cumulative emissions of 8.1 GtCO2eq by 2050 due to the manufacturing of nickel-based chemistries. However, a switch to lithium iron phosphate-based chemistry could enable emission savings of about 1.5 GtCO2eq. Secondary materials, via recycling, can help reduce primary supply requirements and alleviate the environmental burdens associated with the extraction and processing of materials from primary sources, where direct recycling offers the lowest impacts, followed by hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 61, 51, and 17%, respectively. This study can inform global and regional clean energy strategies to boost technology innovations, decarbonize the electricity grid, and optimize the global supply chain toward a net-zero future.

Quantification of urban mitigation potentials - coping with data heterogeneity

Cities are at the forefront of European and international climate action. However, in many cities, the ever-growing urban population is putting pressure on settlement and infrastructure development, increasing attention to urban planning, infrastructure and buildings. This paper introduces a set of quantification approaches, capturing impacts of urban planning measures in three fields of action: sustainable building, transport and redensification. The quantification approaches have been developed to account for different levels of data availability, thus providing users with quantification approaches that are applicable across cities. The mitigation potentials of various measures such as a modal shift, the substitution of building materials with wood, and different redensification scenarios were calculated. The substitution of conventional building materials with wood was analyzed as having a high mitigation potential. Building construction, in combination with urban planning and design, are key drivers for mitigating climate change in cities. Given the data heterogeneity among cities, mixed quantification approaches could be defined and the measures and policy areas with the greatest climate mitigation potential identified.

Trade-off between critical metal requirement and transportation decarbonization in automotive electrification

Automotive electrification holds the promise of mitigating transportation-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, yet at the expense of growing demand for critical metals. Here, we analyze the trade-off between the decarbonization potential of the road transportation sector and its critical metal requirement from the demand-side perspective in 48 major countries committing to decarbonize their road transportation sectors aided by electric vehicles (EVs). Our results demonstrate that deploying EVs with 40-100% penetration by 2050 can increase lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese demands by 2909-7513%, 2127-5426%, 1039-2684%, and 1099-2838%, respectively, and grow platinum group metal requirement by 131-179% in the 48 investigated countries, relative to 2020. Higher EV penetration reduces GHG emissions from fuel use regardless of the transportation energy transition, while those from fuel production are more sensitive to energy-sector decarbonization and could reach nearly "net zero" by 2040.