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McNamara DE, Smith MD, Williams Z, Gopalakrishnan S, Landry CE. Policy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2209. [PMID: 38467636 PMCID: PMC10928214 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46548-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 03/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Despite increasing risks from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms, US coastal communities continue to attract relatively high-income residents, and coastal property values continue to rise. To understand this seeming paradox and explore policy responses, we develop the Coastal Home Ownership Model (C-HOM) and analyze the long-term evolution of coastal real estate markets. C-HOM incorporates changing physical attributes of the coast, economic values of these attributes, and dynamic risks associated with storms and flooding. Resident owners, renters, and non-resident investors jointly determine coastal property values and the policy choices that influence the physical evolution of the coast. In the coupled system, we find that subsidies for coastal management, such as beach nourishment, tax advantages for high-income property owners, and stable or increasing property values outside the coastal zone all dampen the effects of SLR on coastal property values. The effects, however, are temporary and only delay precipitous declines as total inundation approaches. By removing subsidies, prices would more accurately reflect risks from SLR but also trigger more coastal gentrification, as relatively high-income owners enter the market and self-finance nourishment. Our results suggest a policy tradeoff between slowing demographic transitions in coastal communities and allowing property markets to adjust smoothly to risks from climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dylan E McNamara
- Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, UNC Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, 28403, USA
- Center for Marine Science, UNC Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, 28403, USA
| | - Martin D Smith
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA.
- Department of Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA.
| | - Zachary Williams
- Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, UNC Wilmington, Wilmington, NC, 28403, USA
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
| | - Sathya Gopalakrishnan
- Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA
| | - Craig E Landry
- Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA
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Lobeto H, Semedo A, Lemos G, Dastgheib A, Menendez M, Ranasinghe R, Bidlot JR. Global coastal wave storminess. Sci Rep 2024; 14:3726. [PMID: 38355634 PMCID: PMC10866887 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-51420-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 01/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/16/2024] Open
Abstract
Coastal wave storms pose a massive threat to over 10% of the world's population now inhabiting the low elevation coastal zone and to the trillions of $ worth of coastal zone infrastructure and developments therein. Using a ~ 40-year wave hindcast, we here present a world-first assessment of wind-wave storminess along the global coastline. Coastal regions are ranked in terms of the main storm characteristics, showing Northwestern Europe and Southwestern South America to suffer, on average, the most intense storms and the Yellow Sea coast and the South-African and Namibian coasts to be impacted by the most frequent storms. These characteristics are then combined to derive a holistic classification of the global coastlines in terms of their wave environment, showing, for example, that the open coasts of northwestern Europe are impacted by more than 10 storms per year with mean significant wave heights over 6 m. Finally, a novel metric to classify the degree of coastal wave storminess is presented, showing a general latitudinal storminess gradient. Iceland, Ireland, Scotland, Chile and Australia show the highest degree of storminess, whereas Indonesia, Papua-New Guinea, Malaysia, Cambodia and Myanmar show the lowest.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hector Lobeto
- IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain.
| | - Alvaro Semedo
- Department of Coastal and Urban Risk and Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Gil Lemos
- Department of Coastal and Urban Risk and Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands
- Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Ali Dastgheib
- Department of Coastal and Urban Risk and Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands
- IMDC (International Marine and Dredging Company), Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Melisa Menendez
- IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Roshanka Ranasinghe
- Department of Coastal and Urban Risk and Resilience, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands
- Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- Department of Resilient Ports and Coasts, Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands
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Wang Z, Liu K. Effect of Intertidal Vegetation ( Suaeda salsa) Restoration on Microbial Diversity in the Offshore Areas of the Yellow River Delta. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:213. [PMID: 38256766 PMCID: PMC10820354 DOI: 10.3390/plants13020213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2023] [Revised: 01/05/2024] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
The coastal wetlands in the Yellow River Delta play a vital role in the ecological function of the area. However, the impact of primary restoration on microbial communities is not yet fully understood. Hence, this study aimed to analyze the bacterial and archaeal communities in the soil. The results indicated that Marinobacter and Halomonas were predominant in the bacterial community during spring and winter. On the other hand, Muribaculaceae and Helicobacter were prevalent during the core remediation of soil, while Inhella and Halanaerobium were predominant in non-vegetation-covered high-salinity soil. The bacterial Shannon index showed significant differences in vegetation-covered areas. For archaea, Salinigranum, Halorubrum, and Halogranum were dominant in vegetation areas, while Halolamina, Halogranum, and Halorubrum were prevalent in non-vegetation areas. The colonization of Suaeda salsa led to differences in the composition of bacteria (22.6%) and archaea (29.5%), and salt was one of the significant reasons for this difference. The microflora was more diverse, and the elements circulated after vegetation grounding, while the microbial composition in non-vegetation areas was similar, but there was potential competition. Therefore, vegetation restoration can effectively restore soil ecological function, while the microorganisms in the soil before restoration provide germplasm resources for pollutant degradation and antimicrobial development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaohua Wang
- First Institute of Oceanography, MNR, Qingdao 266061, China;
| | - Kai Liu
- Dongying Research Institute for Oceanography Development, Dongying 257000, China
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