Predicting vaccine effectiveness against invasive pneumococcal disease in children using immunogenicity data

Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats

In this review, we assess the status of computational modelling of pathogens. We focus on three disparate but interlinked research areas that produce models with very different spatial and temporal scope. First, we examine antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Many mechanisms of AMR are not well understood. As a result, it is hard to measure the current incidence of AMR, predict the future incidence, and design strategies to preserve existing antibiotic effectiveness. Next, we look at how to choose the finite number of bacterial strains that can be included in a vaccine. To do this, we need to understand what happens to vaccine and non-vaccine strains after vaccination programmes. Finally, we look at within-host modelling of antibody dynamics. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic produced huge amounts of antibody data, prompting improvements in this area of modelling. We finish by discussing the challenges that persist in understanding these complex biological systems.

Serotype distribution, clinical characteristics, and antimicrobial resistance of pediatric invasive pneumococcal disease in Colombia during PCV10 mass vaccination (2017-2022)

Introduction

Invasive Pneumococcal Disease (IPD) causes significant morbidity and mortality in children under 5 y. Colombia introduced PCV10 vaccination in 2012, and the Neumocolombia network has been monitoring IPD in pediatric patients since 2008.

Materials and methods

This study is a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort involving pediatric patients with IPD admitted to 17 hospitals in Colombia, from January 1st, 2017, to December 31st, 2022. We present data on serotypes (Spn), clinical characteristics, and resistance patterns.

Results

We report 530 patients, 215 (40.5%) were younger than 24 months. Among these, 344 cases (64.7%) presented with pneumonia, 95 (17.9%) with primary bacteremia, 53 (10%) with meningitis, 6 (1.1%) had pneumonia and meningitis, and 32 (6%) had other IPD diagnosis. The median hospital stay was 12 days (RIQ 8-14 days), and 268 (50.6%) were admitted to the ICU, of whom 60 (11.3%) died. Serotyping was performed in 298 (56.1%). The most frequent serotypes were Spn19A (51.3%), Spn6C (7.7%), Spn3 (6.7%), Spn6A (3.6%), and Spn14 (3.6%). Of 495 (93%) isolates with known susceptibility, 46 (9.2%) were meningeal (M) and 449 (90.7%) non-meningeal (NM). Among M isolates, 41.3% showed resistance to penicillin, and 21.7% decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone. For NM isolates, 28.2% had decreased susceptibility to penicilin, and 24.2% decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone. Spn19A showed the highest resistant to penicillin at 47% and was linked to multiresistance.

Conclusion

The prevalence of PCV10-included serotypes decreased, while serotypes 19A and 6C increased, with Spn19A being associated with multiresistance. These findings had played a crucial role in the decision made by Colombia to modify its immunization schedule by switching to PCV13 in July 2022.

Predicted serotype-specific effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines V114 and PCV20 against invasive pneumococcal disease in children

BACKGROUND

Next-generation, higher-valency pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), 15-valent PCV V114 and 20-valent PCV (PCV20), have been assessed by comparing their immune responses across serotypes shared with the 13-valent PCV (PCV13). Without efficacy or real-world vaccine effectiveness (VE) it becomes important to relate IgG titers to VE to aid in the interpretation of the immune response elicited by V114 and PCV20.

METHODS

We estimated the protective antibody concentrations for each serotype in 7-valent PCV (PCV7) and PCV13 which were then used to predict the serotype-specific VE for each PCV7 and PCV13 non PCV7 serotype present in V114 and PCV20.

RESULTS

The predicted effectiveness of V114 was comparable to PCV7 and PCV13 for 11 of the 13 shared serotypes (1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9 V, 14, 18C, 19A, 19F, and 23F), with improved effectiveness against serotype 3 and decreased effectiveness against serotype 6A. PCV20 had predicted effectiveness comparable to PCV7 and PCV13 for 7 of the 13 shared serotypes (5, 6A, 7F, 9 V, 18C, 19F, and 23F), with decreased effectiveness against the remaining serotypes (1, 3, 4, 6B, 14, and 19A).

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction of serotype-specific VE values suggests that V114 retains greater effectiveness than PCV20 toward most serotypes present in PCV7 and PCV13.

Potential serotype-specific effectiveness against IPD of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines V114 and PCV20 in children given a 2+1 dosing regimen

BACKGROUND

Next generation, higher valency pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are assessed and licensed by comparing the immune response across serotypes shared with the PCVs that are standard of care for prevention of pneumococcal disease.

METHODS

Using a previously qualified method we predicted the serotype-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) against invasive pneumococcal disease of V114 and PCV20 for the serotypes shared with PCV13 in an EU, Russian, and Australian pediatric population that is recommended to receive a 2 + 1 dosing regimen.

RESULTS

The estimated protective antibody concentrations ranged from 0.03 (serotype 23F) to 1.49 µg/mL (serotype 19F). Predicted VE values for V114 ranged from 79% (serotype 5) to 100% (serotype 23F). V114 had comparable effectiveness to PCV13 for all but one of shared serotypes, with predicted higher effectiveness (in V114) against serotype 3 (93% vs. 65%). Predicted VE values for PCV20 ranged from 47% (serotype 3) to 91% (serotype 14). PCV20 predicted VE was lower than PCV13's for serotypes 4, 19F, 23F, 1, 3, 5, 6A, 7F, and 19A.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicted serotype-specific VE values suggest that, with a 2 + 1 dosing regimen, V114 will have greater effectiveness than PCV20 against PCV13 serotypes, particularly for the still-prevalent serotype 3. Real-world VE studies will ultimately provide clarity on the effectiveness of novel PCVs and support further confidence in and/or improvements to modeling efforts.

An indirect treatment comparison (ITC) and matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) between a 15-valent (V114) and a 20-valent (PCV20) pneumococcal conjugate vaccine among healthy infants

OBJECTIVES

Immunogenicity between 15-valent V114 (PCV15) and 20-valent PCV20 pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in healthy infants is compared in an indirect treatment comparison and matching-adjusted indirect comparison. Hypotheses: immunogenicity of V114 is non-inferior to PCV20 for all PCV13 serotypes, and superior to PCV20 for serotype 3 based on lower bound margins.

METHODS

Two phase 3 pivotal studies on 3 + 1 pediatric vaccination schedule at age 2, 4, 6, and 12-15 months compared V114 (N = 858) to PCV13 (N = 856) and PCV20 (N = 1001) to PCV13 (N = 987). Infant's age and race in V114 study were matched to those in PCV20 study. Primary endpoints were serotype-specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) response rate difference (RRD) 30 days post-dose (PD)3; IgG geometric mean concentration (GMC) ratios 30 days PD3 and PD4.

RESULTS

V114 was non-inferior (m a r g i n R R D >-10%-point; m a r g i n G M C r a t i o >0.5) to PCV20 (p-value <0.001) for all endpoints. V114 was superior (m a r g i n R R D >0%-point; m a r g i n G M C r a t i o >1.2) to PCV20 (p-value <0.001) for serotype 3: RRD was 34.5% (95%CI 27.9%-41.1%) PD3, and IgG GMC ratios were 2.39 (95%CI 2.12-2.68) PD3 and 2.15 (95%CI 1.90-2.41) PD4.

CONCLUSION

Immune response to V114 administered in a 3 + 1 schedule in healthy infants was considered non-inferior to PCV20 for all 13 PCV13 serotypes and superior for serotype 3 PD3 and PD4.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.clinicaltrials.gov identifiers NCT03893448, NCT04382326.