National climate and biodiversity strategies are hamstrung by a lack of maps

Global distribution and environmental correlates of marine bioturbation

The activities of marine sediment-dwelling invertebrates play a fundamental role in mediating major biogeochemical cycles and have profoundly shaped the evolution of marine systems. Yet there remains a paucity of global marine data describing bioturbation intensities and mixed layer depths and interrogating how these vary with multiple environmental and ecological factors at a system scale. We applied an ensemble of tree-based machine learning techniques to resolve a global map and determine the environmental and ecological correlates most closely associated with bioturbation. We find that bioturbation intensity and the depth of the sediment mixed layer each reflect different associations with a consortium of environmental and ecological parameters, and that bioturbation intensities are much more readily predicted than sediment mixed layer depths from these correlates. Furthermore, we find that the bioturbation intensity, the depth of the sediment mixed layer, and their environmental and ecological correlates differ between shallow marine and open-ocean settings. Our findings provide new insights into the importance of potential drivers of ancient sediment mixing recorded by geologic archives. These results also highlight that climate change may, in the near future, drive shifts in bioturbation and reciprocal fundamental changes in benthic functioning.

Mapping multiscale breeding bird species distributions across the United States and evaluating their conservation applications

Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, community-level maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions-0.5, 2.5, and 5 km-across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models.

Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models ("the capacity gap") or knowledge of the accuracy of available models ("the certainty gap"), especially in the world's poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local- to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.

Global assessment of nature's contributions to people

Synergistically maintain or enhance the numerous beneficial contributions of nature to the quality of human life is an important but challenging question for achieving Sustainable Development Goals. However, the spatiotemporal distributions of global nature's contributions to people (NCPs) and their interactions remain unclear. We built a rapid assessment indicator framework and produced the first spatially explicit assessment of all 18 NCPs at a global scale. The 18 global NCPs in 1992 and 2018 were globally assessed in 15,204 subbasins based on two spatial indicator dimensions, including nature's potential contribution and the actual contribution to people. The results show that most of the high NCP values are highly localized. From 1992 to 2018, 6 regulating NCPs, 3 material NCPs, and 2 nonmaterial NCPs declined; 29 regulating-material NCP combinations (54 in total) dominated 76% of the terrestrial area, and the area with few NCPs accounted for 22%; and synergistic relationships were more common than tradeoff relationships, while the relationships among regulating and material NCPs generally traded-off with each other. Transitional climate areas contained few NCPs and have strong tradeoff relationships. However, the high synergistic relationship among NCPs in low latitudes could be threatened by future climate change. These findings provide a general spatiotemporal understanding of global NCP distributions and can be used to interpret the biogeographic information in a functional way to support regional coordination and achieve landscape multifunctionality for the enhancement of human well-being.

How Social Considerations Improve the Equity and Effectiveness of Ecosystem Restoration

Ecosystem restoration is an important means to address global sustainability challenges. However, scientific and policy discourse often overlooks the social processes that influence the equity and effectiveness of restoration interventions. In the present article, we outline how social processes that are critical to restoration equity and effectiveness can be better incorporated in restoration science and policy. Drawing from existing case studies, we show how projects that align with local people's preferences and are implemented through inclusive governance are more likely to lead to improved social, ecological, and environmental outcomes. To underscore the importance of social considerations in restoration, we overlay existing global restoration priority maps, population, and the Human Development Index (HDI) to show that approximately 1.4 billion people, disproportionately belonging to groups with low HDI, live in areas identified by previous studies as being of high restoration priority. We conclude with five action points for science and policy to promote equity-centered restoration.

Irrigated Crop Types Mapping in Tashkent Province of Uzbekistan with Remote Sensing-Based Classification Methods

Appropriate crop type mapping to monitor and control land management is very important in developing countries. It can be very useful where digital cadaster maps are not available or usage of Remote Sensing (RS) data is not utilized in the process of monitoring and inventory. The main goal of the present research is to compare and assess the importance of optical RS data in crop type classification using medium and high spatial resolution RS imagery in 2018. With this goal, Landsat 8 (L8) and Sentinel-2 (S2) data were acquired over the Tashkent Province between the crop growth period of May and October. In addition, this period is the only possible time for having cloud-free satellite images. The following four indices “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index” (NDVI), “Enhanced Vegetation Index” (EVI), and “Normalized Difference Water Index” (NDWI1 and NDWI2) were calculated using blue, red, near-infrared, shortwave infrared 1, and shortwave infrared 2 bands. Support-Vector-Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) classification methods were used to generate the main crop type maps. As a result, the Overall Accuracy (OA) of all indices was above 84% and the highest OA of 92% was achieved together with EVI-NDVI and the RF method of L8 sensor data. The highest Kappa Accuracy (KA) was found with the RF method of L8 data when EVI (KA of 88%) and EVI-NDVI (KA of 87%) indices were used. A comparison of the classified crop type area with Official State Statistics (OSS) data about sown crops area demonstrated that the smallest absolute weighted average (WA) value difference (0.2 thousand ha) was obtained using EVI-NDVI with RF method and NDVI with SVM method of L8 sensor data. For S2-sensor data, the smallest absolute value difference result (0.1 thousand ha) was obtained using EVI with RF method and 0.4 thousand ha using NDVI with SVM method. Therefore, it can be concluded that the results demonstrate new opportunities in the joint use of Landsat and Sentinel data in the future to capture high temporal resolution during the vegetation growth period for crop type mapping. We believe that the joint use of S2 and L8 data enables the separation of crop types and increases the classification accuracy.

Gains in biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services from the expansion of the planet's protected areas

Protected areas safeguard biodiversity, ensure ecosystem functioning, and deliver ecosystem services to communities. However, only ~16% of the world's land area is under some form of protection, prompting international calls to protect at least 30% by 2030. We modeled the outcomes of achieving this 30 × 30 target for terrestrial biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and nutrient regulation. We find that the additional ~2.8 million ha of habitat that would be protected would benefit 1134 ± 175 vertebrate species whose habitats currently lack any form of protection, as well as contribute to either avoided carbon emissions or carbon dioxide sequestration, equivalent to 10.9 ± 3.6 GtCO₂ year^-1 (28.4 ± 9.4% of the global nature-based climate-change mitigation potential). Furthermore, expansion of the protected area network would increase its ability to regulate water quality and mitigate nutrient pollution by 142.5 ± 31.0 MtN year^-1 (28.5 ± 6.2% of the global nutrient regulation potential).

Assessing ecosystem condition at the national level in Hungary - indicators, approaches, challenges

The availability of robust and reliable spatial information on ecosystem condition is of increasing importance in informing conservation policy. Recent policy requirements have sparked a renewed interest in conceptual questions related to ecosystem condition and practical aspects like indicator selection, resulting in the emergence of conceptual frameworks, such as the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) and its Ecosystem Condition Typology (ECT). However, while such frameworks are essential to ensure that condition assessments are comprehensive and comparable, large-scale practical implementation often poses challenges that need to be tackled within stringent time and cost frames.

We present methods and experiences of the national-level mapping and assessment of ecosystem condition in Hungary. The assessments covered the whole country, including all major ecosystem types present. The methodology constitutes four approaches of quantifying and mapping condition, based on different interpretations of naturalness and hemeroby, complemented by two more using properties that ‘overarch’ ecosystem types, such as soil and landscape attributes. In order to highlight their strengths and drawbacks, as well as to help reconcile aspects of conceptual relevance with practical limitations, we retrospectively evaluated the six mapping approaches (and the resulting indicators) against the indicator selection criteria suggested in the SEEA-EA. The results show that the various approaches have different strengths and weaknesses and, thus, their joint application has a higher potential to address the specific challenges related to large-scale ecosystem condition mapping.

Conservation opportunities and challenges in Brazil's roadless and railroad-less areas

Policy and legislation rarely acknowledge the importance of keeping intact ecosystems road- and railroad-free. By modeling Brazil's remaining roadless and railroad-less (RLRL) areas, we found that, although they hold the vast majority of the country's remaining native vegetation (81.5%), because of their limited protection status, only 38% of Brazil's remaining native vegetation is both protected and in RLRL areas. Current federal policy aims to develop transportation infrastructure designed with antiquated planning methods that threaten remaining intact ecosystems, while concurrently weakening the country's hallmark environmental protections and commitments. Where Brazil builds its new roads and railroads matters for conservation planning. The occurrence of native vegetation and anthropic land use is associated, at varying degrees, to transportation infrastructure throughout most of Brazil. We highlight that by pursuing conservation opportunities in RLRL areas, Brazil could instead make impactful steps for conservation, restoration planning, and tangible progress toward achieving national and international environmental and conservation commitments.