A predictive timeline of wildlife population collapse

Ecological genetics of isolated loach populations indicate compromised adaptive potential

Many endangered species live in fragmented and isolated populations with low genetic variability, signs of inbreeding, and small effective population sizes - all features elevating their extinction risk. The flat-headed loach (Oreonectes platycephalus), a small noemacheilid fish, is widely across southern China, but only in the headwaters of hillstreams; as a result, they are spatially isolated from conspecific populations. We surveyed single nucleotide polymorphisms in 16 Hong Kong populations of O. platycephalus to determine whether loach populations from different streams were genetically isolated from each other, showed low levels of genetic diversity, signs of inbreeding, and had small contemporary effective population sizes. Estimates of average observed heterozygosity (HO = 0.0473), average weighted nucleotide diversity (πw = 0.0546) and contemporary effective population sizes (Ne = 10.2 ~ 129.8) were very low, and several populations showed clear signs of inbreeding as judged from relatedness estimates. The degree of genetic differentiation among populations was very high (average FST = 0.668), even over short geographic distances (<1.5 km), with clear patterns of isolation by distance. These results suggest that Hong Kong populations of O. platycephalus have experienced strong genetic drift and loss of genetic variability because sea-level rise after the last glaciation reduced connectedness among paleodrainages, isolating populations in headwaters. All this, together with the fact that the levels of genetic diversity and contemporary effective population sizes within O. platycephalus populations are lower than most other freshwater fishes, suggests that they face high local extinction risk and have limited capacity for future adaptation.

Time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems

Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very different and, at times, even disastrous dynamical regimes. Since such critical transitions disrupt the systems' intended or desired functionality, it is crucial to understand the underlying mechanisms, to identify precursors of such transitions, and to reliably detect them in time series of suitable system observables to enable forecasts. This review critically assesses the various steps of investigation involved in time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems: from the data recording to evaluating the reliability of offline and online detections. It will highlight pros and cons to stimulate further developments, which would be necessary to advance understanding and forecasting nonlinear behavior such as critical transitions in complex systems.

Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world

Ecological and evolutionary predictions are being increasingly employed to inform decision-makers confronted with intensifying pressures on biodiversity. For these efforts to effectively guide conservation actions, knowing the limit of predictability is pivotal. In this study, we provide realistic expectations for the enterprise of predicting changes in ecological and evolutionary observations through time. We begin with an intuitive explanation of predictability (the extent to which predictions are possible) employing an easy-to-use metric, predictive power PP(t). To illustrate the challenge of forecasting, we then show that among insects, birds, fishes and mammals, (i) 50% of the populations are predictable at most 1 year in advance and (ii) the median 1-year-ahead predictive power corresponds to a prediction R 2 of only 20%. Predictability is not an immutable property of ecological systems. For example, different harvesting strategies can impact the predictability of exploited populations to varying degrees. Moreover, incorporating explanatory variables, accounting for time trends and considering multivariate time series can enhance predictability. To effectively address the challenge of biodiversity loss, researchers and practitioners must be aware of the information within the available data that can be used for prediction and explore efficient ways to leverage this knowledge for environmental stewardship.

Population abundance estimates in conservation and biodiversity research

Measuring and tracking biodiversity from local to global scales is challenging due to its multifaceted nature and the range of metrics used to describe spatial and temporal patterns. Abundance can be used to describe how a population changes across space and time, but it can be measured in different ways, with consequences for the interpretation and communication of spatiotemporal patterns. We differentiate between relative and absolute abundance, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each for biodiversity monitoring, conservation, and ecological research. We highlight when absolute abundance can be advantageous and should be prioritized in biodiversity monitoring and research, and conclude by providing avenues for future research directions to better assess the necessity of absolute abundance in biodiversity monitoring.

Endocrine-Disrupting Chemical Exposure Induces Adverse Effects on the Population Dynamics of the Indo-Pacific Humpback Dolphin

Cetaceans play a pivotal role in maintaining the ecological equilibrium of ocean ecosystems. However, their populations are under global threat from environmental contaminants. Various high levels of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) have been detected in cetaceans from the South China Sea, such as the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), suggesting potential health risks, while the impacts of endocrine disruptors on the dolphin population remain unclear. This study aims to synthesize the population dynamics of the humpback dolphins in the PRE and their profiles of EDC contaminants from 2005 to 2019, investigating the potential role of EDCs in the population dynamics of humpback dolphins. Our comprehensive analysis indicates a sustained decline in the PRE humpback dolphin population, posing a significant risk of extinction. Variations in sex hormones induced by EDC exposure could potentially impact birth rates, further contributing to the population decline. Anthropogenic activities consistently emerge as the most significant stressor, ranking highest in importance. Conventional EDCs demonstrate more pronounced impacts on the population compared to emerging compounds. Among the conventional pollutants, DDTs take precedence, followed by zinc and chromium. The most impactful emerging EDCs are identified as alkylphenols. Notably, as the profile of EDCs changes, the significance of conventional pollutants may give way to emerging EDCs, presenting a continued challenge to the viability of the humpback dolphin population.

Landscape use by large grazers in a grassland is restructured by wildfire

Animals navigate landscapes based on perceived risks vs. rewards, as inferred from features of the landscape. In the wild, knowing how strongly animal movement is directed by landscape features is difficult to ascertain but widespread disturbances such as wildfires can serve as natural experiments. We tested the hypothesis that wildfires homogenize the risk/reward landscape, causing movement to become less directed, given that fires reduce landscape complexity as habitat structures (e.g., tree cover, dense brush) are burned. We used satellite imagery of a research reserve in Northern California to count and categorize paths made primarily by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in grasslands. Specifically, we compared pre-wildfire (August 2014) and post-wildfire (September 2018) image history layers among locations that were or were not impacted by wildfire (i.e., a Before/After Control/Impact design). Wildfire significantly altered spatial patterns of deer movement: more new paths were gained and more old paths were lost in areas of the reserve that were impacted by wildfire; movement patterns became less directed in response to fire, suggesting that the risk/reward landscape became more homogenous, as hypothesized. We found evidence to suggest that wildfire affects deer populations at spatial scales beyond their scale of direct impact and raises the interesting possibility that deer perceive risks and rewards at different spatial scales. In conclusion, our study provides an example of how animals integrate spatial information from the environment to make movement decisions, setting the stage for future work on the broader ecological implications for populations, communities, and ecosystems, an emerging interest in ecology.

Extensive behavioral data contained within existing ecological datasets

Long-term ecological datasets contain vast behavioral data, enabling the quantification of among-individual behavioral variation at unprecedented spatiotemporal scales. We detail how behaviors can be extracted and describe how such data can be used to test new hypotheses, inform population and community ecology, and address pressing conservation needs.

Local buffer mechanisms for population persistence

Assessing and predicting the persistence of populations is essential for the conservation and control of species. Here, we argue that local mechanisms require a better conceptual synthesis to facilitate a more holistic consideration along with regional mechanisms known from metapopulation theory. We summarise the evidence for local buffer mechanisms along with their capacities and emphasise the need to include multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. We propose an accessible framework for local buffer mechanisms that distinguishes between damping (reducing fluctuations in population size) and repelling (reducing population declines) mechanisms. We highlight opportunities for empirical and modelling studies to investigate the interactions and capacities of buffer mechanisms to facilitate better ecological understanding in times of ecological upheaval.

Situating defaunation in an operational framework to advance biodiversity conservation

Anthropogenic pressures are causing the widespread loss of wildlife species and populations, with adverse consequences for ecosystem functioning. This phenomenon has been widely but inconsistently referred to as defaunation. A cohesive, quantitative framework for defining and evaluating defaunation is necessary for advancing biodiversity conservation. Likening defaunation to deforestation, we propose an operational framework for defaunation that defines it and related terms, situates defaunation relative to intact communities and faunal degradation, and encourages quantitative, ecologically reasonable, and equitable measurements. We distinguish between defaunation, the conversion of an ecosystem from having wild animals to not having wild animals, and faunal degradation, the process of losing animals or species from an animal community. The quantification of context-relevant defaunation boundaries or baselines is necessary to compare faunal communities over space and time. Situating a faunal community on the degradation curve can promote Global Biodiversity Framework targets, advancing the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity.

Phenotypic response to different predator strategies can be mediated by temperature

Temperature change affects biological systems in multifaceted ways, including the alteration of species interaction strengths, with implications for the stability of populations and communities. Temperature-dependent changes to antipredatory responses are an emerging mechanism of destabilization and thus there is a need to understand how prey species respond to predation pressures in the face of changing temperatures. Here, using ciliate protozoans, we assess whether temperature can alter the strength of phenotypic antipredator responses in a prey species and whether this relationship depends on the predator's hunting behavior. We exposed populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum to either (i) a sit-and-wait generalist predator (Homalozoon vermiculare) or (ii) a specialized active swimmer predator (Didinium nasutum) across two different temperature regimes (15 and 25°C) to quantify the temperature dependence of antipredator responses over a 24-h period. We utilized a novel high-throughput automated robotic monitoring system to track changes in the behavior (swimming speed) and morphology (cell size) of P. caudatum at frequencies and resolutions previously unachievable by manual sampling. The change in swimming speed through the 24 h differed between the two temperatures but was not altered by the presence of the predators. In contrast, P. caudatum showed a substantial temperature-dependent morphological response to the presence of D. nasutum (but not H. vermiculare), changing cell shape toward a more elongated morph at 15°C (but not at 25°C). Our findings suggest that temperature can have strong effects on prey morphological responses to predator presence, but that this response is potentially dependent on the predator's feeding strategy. This suggests that greater consideration of synergistic antipredator behavioral and physiological responses is required in species and communities subject to environmental changes.

Anthropogenic change decouples a freshwater predator's density feedback

Intraspecific interactions within predator populations can affect predator-prey dynamics and community structure, highlighting the need to better understand how these interactions respond to anthropogenic change. To this end, we used a half-century (1969-2018) of abundance and size-at-age data from Lake Erie's walleye (Sander vitreus) population to determine how anthropogenic alterations have influenced intraspecific interactions. Before the 1980s, the length-at-age of younger walleye (ages 1 and 2) negatively correlated with older (age 3 +) walleye abundance, signaling a 'density feedback' in which intraspecific competition limited growth. However, after the early 1980s this signal of intraspecific competition disappeared. This decoupling of the density feedback was related to multiple anthropogenic changes, including a larger walleye population resulting from better fisheries management, planned nutrient reductions to improve water quality and transparency, warmer water temperatures, and the proliferation of a non-native fish with novel traits (white perch, Morone americana). We argue that these changes may have reduced competitive interactions by reducing the spatial overlap between older and younger walleye and by introducing novel prey. Our findings illustrate the potential for anthropogenic change to diminish density dependent intraspecific interactions within top predator populations, which has important ramifications for predicting predator dynamics and managing natural resources.