Efficient coding of numbers explains decision bias and noise

A unifying theory explains seemingly contradictory biases in perceptual estimation

Perceptual biases are widely regarded as offering a window into the neural computations underlying perception. To understand these biases, previous work has proposed a number of conceptually different, and even seemingly contradictory, explanations, including attraction to a Bayesian prior, repulsion from the prior due to efficient coding and central tendency effects on a bounded range. We present a unifying Bayesian theory of biases in perceptual estimation derived from first principles. We demonstrate theoretically an additive decomposition of perceptual biases into attraction to a prior, repulsion away from regions with high encoding precision and regression away from the boundary. The results reveal a simple and universal rule for predicting the direction of perceptual biases. Our theory accounts for, and yields, new insights regarding biases in the perception of a variety of stimulus attributes, including orientation, color and magnitude. These results provide important constraints on the neural implementations of Bayesian computations.

Motor "laziness" constrains fixation selection in real-world tasks

Humans coordinate their eye, head, and body movements to gather information from a dynamic environment while maximizing reward and minimizing biomechanical and energetic costs. However, such natural behavior is not possible in traditional experiments employing head/body restraints and artificial, static stimuli. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent mechanisms of fixation selection discovered in lab studies, such as inhibition-of-return (IOR), influence everyday behavior. To address this gap, participants performed nine real-world tasks, including driving, visually searching for an item, and building a Lego set, while wearing a mobile eye tracker (169 recordings; 26.6 h). Surprisingly, in all tasks, participants most often returned to what they just viewed and saccade latencies were shorter preceding return than forward saccades, i.e., consistent with facilitation, rather than inhibition, of return. We hypothesize that conservation of eye and head motor effort ("laziness") contributes. Correspondingly, we observed center biases in fixation position and duration relative to the head's orientation. A model that generates scanpaths by randomly sampling these distributions reproduced all return phenomena we observed, including distinct 3-fixation sequences for forward versus return saccades. After controlling for orbital eccentricity, one task (building a Lego set) showed evidence for IOR. This, along with small discrepancies between model and data, indicates that the brain balances minimization of motor costs with maximization of rewards (e.g., accomplished by IOR and other mechanisms) and that the optimal balance varies according to task demands. Supporting this account, the orbital range of motion used in each task traded off lawfully with fixation duration.

Rationality, preferences, and emotions with biological constraints: it all starts from our senses

Is the role of our sensory systems to represent the physical world as accurately as possible? If so, are our preferences and emotions, often deemed irrational, decoupled from these 'ground-truth' sensory experiences? We show why the answer to both questions is 'no'. Brain function is metabolically costly, and the brain loses some fraction of the information that it encodes and transmits. Therefore, if brains maximize objective functions that increase the fitness of their species, they should adapt to the objective-maximizing rules of the environment at the earliest stages of sensory processing. Consequently, observed 'irrationalities', preferences, and emotions stem from the necessity for our early sensory systems to adapt and process information while considering the metabolic costs and internal states of the organism.

The Future of Decisions From Experience: Connecting Real-World Decision Problems to Cognitive Processes

In many important real-world decision domains, such as finance, the environment, and health, behavior is strongly influenced by experience. Renewed interest in studying this influence led to important advancements in the understanding of these decisions from experience (DfE) in the last 20 years. Building on this literature, we suggest ways the standard experimental design should be extended to better approach important real-world DfE. These extensions include, for example, introducing more complex choice situations, delaying feedback, and including social interactions. When acting upon experiences in these richer and more complicated environments, extensive cognitive processes go into making a decision. Therefore, we argue for integrating cognitive processes more explicitly into experimental research in DfE. These cognitive processes include attention to and perception of numeric and nonnumeric experiences, the influence of episodic and semantic memory, and the mental models involved in learning processes. Understanding these basic cognitive processes can advance the modeling, understanding and prediction of DfE in the laboratory and in the real world. We highlight the potential of experimental research in DfE for theory integration across the behavioral, decision, and cognitive sciences. Furthermore, this research could lead to new methodology that better informs decision-making and policy interventions.

Efficient sensory encoding predicts robust averaging

Not every item in a stimulus ensemble equally contributes to the perceived ensemble average. Rather, items with feature values close to the ensemble mean (inlying items) contribute stronger compared to those items whose feature values are further away from the mean (outlying items). This nonuniform weighting process, named robust averaging, has been interpreted as evidence against an optimal integration of sensory information. Here, however, we show that robust averaging naturally emerges from an optimal integration process when sensory encoding is efficiently adapted to the ensemble statistics in the experiment. We demonstrate that such a model can accurately fit several existing datasets showing robust perceptual averaging in discriminating low-level stimulus features such as orientation. Across various feature domains, our model accurately predicts subjects' decision accuracy and nonuniform weighting profile, and both their dependency on the specific stimulus distribution in the experiments. Our results suggest that the human visual system forms efficient sensory representations on short time-scales to improve overall decision performance.