Machine intelligence in non-invasive endocrine cancer diagnostics

An update on pancreatic cancer imaging, staging, and use of the PACT-UK radiology template pre- and post-neoadjuvant treatment

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma continues to have a poor prognosis, although recent advances in neoadjuvant treatments (NATs) have provided some hope. Imaging assessment of suspected tumours can be challenging and requires a specific approach, with pancreas protocol CT being the primary imaging modality for staging with other modalities used as problem-solving tools to facilitate appropriate management. Imaging assessment post NAT can be particularly difficult due to a current lack of robust radiological criteria to predict response and differentiate treatment induced fibrosis/inflammation from residual tumour. This review aims to provide an update of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with particular focus on three points: tumour staging pre- and post-NAT including vascular assessment, structured reporting with introduction of the PAncreatic Cancer reporting Template-UK (PACT-UK) radiology template, and the potential future role of artificial intelligence in the diagnosis and staging of pancreatic cancer.

Epigenetics in thyroid cancer: a bibliometric analysis

Background

Epigenetics, which involves regulatory modifications that do not alter the DNA sequence itself, is crucial in the development and progression of thyroid cancer. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the epigenetic research landscape in thyroid cancer, highlighting current trends, major research areas, and potential future directions.

Methods

A bibliometric analysis was performed using data from the Web of Science Core Collection (WOSCC) up to 1 November 2023. Analytical tools such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace, and the R package 'bibliometrix' were employed for comprehensive data analysis and visualization. This process identified principal research themes, along with influential authors, institutions, and countries contributing to the field.

Results

The analysis reveals a marked increase in thyroid cancer epigenetics research over the past two decades. Emergent key themes include the exploration of molecular mechanisms and biomarkers, various subtypes of thyroid cancer, implications for therapeutic interventions, advancements in technologies and methodologies, and the scope of translational research. Research hotspots within these themes highlight intensive areas of study and the potential for significant breakthroughs.

Conclusion

This study presents an in-depth overview of the current state of epigenetics in thyroid cancer research. It underscores the potential of epigenetic strategies as viable therapeutic options and provides valuable insights for researchers and clinicians in advancing the understanding and treatment of this complex disease. Future research is vital to fully leverage the therapeutic possibilities offered by epigenetics in the management of thyroid cancer.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Stratification Using Hybrid Deep Learning Paradigm: First of Its Kind on Canadian Trial Data

BACKGROUND

The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has traditionally been predicted via the assessment of carotid plaques. In the proposed study, AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL (AtheroPoint™, Roseville, CA, USA) was designed to demonstrate how well the features obtained from carotid plaques determine the risk of CVD. We hypothesize that hybrid deep learning (HDL) will outperform unidirectional deep learning, bidirectional deep learning, and machine learning (ML) paradigms.

METHODOLOGY

500 people who had undergone targeted carotid B-mode ultrasonography and coronary angiography were included in the proposed study. ML feature selection was carried out using three different methods, namely principal component analysis (PCA) pooling, the chi-square test (CST), and the random forest regression (RFR) test. The unidirectional and bidirectional deep learning models were trained, and then six types of novel HDL-based models were designed for CVD risk stratification. The AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL was scientifically validated using seen and unseen datasets while the reliability and statistical tests were conducted using CST along with p-value significance. The performance of AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL was evaluated by measuring the p-value and area-under-the-curve for both seen and unseen data.

RESULTS

The HDL system showed an improvement of 30.20% (0.954 vs. 0.702) over the ML system using the seen datasets. The ML feature extraction analysis showed 70% of common features among all three methods. The generalization of AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL showed less than 1% (p-value < 0.001) difference between seen and unseen data, complying with regulatory standards.

CONCLUSIONS

The hypothesis for AtheroEdge™ 3.0HDL was scientifically validated, and the model was tested for reliability and stability and is further adaptable clinically.

AutoCancer as an automated multimodal framework for early cancer detection

Current studies in early cancer detection based on liquid biopsy data often rely on off-the-shelf models and face challenges with heterogeneous data, as well as manually designed data preprocessing pipelines with different parameter settings. To address those challenges, we present AutoCancer, an automated, multimodal, and interpretable transformer-based framework. This framework integrates feature selection, neural architecture search, and hyperparameter optimization into a unified optimization problem with Bayesian optimization. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that AutoCancer achieves accurate performance in specific cancer types and pan-cancer analysis, outperforming existing methods across three cohorts. We further demonstrated the interpretability of AutoCancer by identifying key gene mutations associated with non-small cell lung cancer to pinpoint crucial factors at different stages and subtypes. The robustness of AutoCancer, coupled with its strong interpretability, underscores its potential for clinical applications in early cancer detection.

Patient classification and attribute assessment based on machine learning techniques in the qualification process for surgical treatment of adrenal tumours

Adrenal gland incidentaloma is frequently identified through computed tomography and poses a common clinical challenge. Only selected cases require surgical intervention. The primary aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of selected machine learning (ML) techniques in proper qualifying patients for adrenalectomy and to identify the most accurate algorithm, providing a valuable tool for doctors to simplify their therapeutic decisions. The secondary aim was to assess the significance of attributes for classification accuracy. In total, clinical data were collected from 33 patients who underwent adrenalectomy. Histopathological assessments confirmed the proper selection of 21 patients for surgical intervention according to the guidelines, with accuracy reaching 64%. Statistical analysis showed that Supported Vector Machines (linear) were significantly better than the baseline (p < 0.05), with accuracy reaching 91%, and imaging features of the tumour were found to be the most crucial attributes. In summarise, ML methods may be helpful in qualifying patients for adrenalectomy.

A narrative review of deep learning in thyroid imaging: current progress and future prospects

Background and Objective

Deep learning (DL) has contributed substantially to the evolution of image analysis by unlocking increased data and computational power. These DL algorithms have further facilitated the growing trend of implementing precision medicine, particularly in areas of diagnosis and therapy. Thyroid imaging, as a routine means to screening for thyroid diseases on large-scale populations, is a massive data source for the development of DL models. Thyroid disease is a global health problem and involves structural and functional changes. The objective of this study was to evaluate the general rules and future directions of DL networks in thyroid medical image analysis through a review of original articles published between 2018 and 2023.

Methods

We searched for English-language articles published between April 2018 and September 2023 in the databases of PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. The keywords used in the search included artificial intelligence or DL, thyroid diseases, and thyroid nodule or thyroid carcinoma.

Key Content and Findings

The computer vision tasks of DL in thyroid imaging included classification, segmentation, and detection. The current applications of DL in clinical workflow were found to mainly include management of thyroid nodules/carcinoma, risk evaluation of thyroid cancer metastasis, and discrimination of functional thyroid diseases.

Conclusions

DL is expected to enhance the quality of thyroid images and provide greater precision in the assessment of thyroid images. Specifically, DL can increase the diagnostic accuracy of thyroid diseases and better inform clinical decision-making.

Applications and Integration of Radiomics for Skull Base Oncology

Radiomics, a quantitative approach to extracting features from medical images, represents a new frontier in skull base oncology. Novel image analysis approaches have enabled us to capture patterns from images imperceptible by the human eye. This rich source of data can be combined with a range of clinical features, holding the potential to be a noninvasive source of biomarkers. Applications of radiomics in skull base pathologies have centered around three common tumor classes: meningioma, sellar/parasellar tumors, and vestibular schwannomas. Radiomic investigations can be categorized into five domains: tumor detection/segmentation, classification between tumor types, tumor grading, detection of tumor features, and prognostication. Various computational architectures have been employed across these domains, with deep-learning methods becoming more common versus machine learning. Across radiomic applications, contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MRI images remain the most utilized sequence for model development. Efforts to standardize and connect radiomic features to tumor biology have facilitated more clinically applicable radiomic models. Despite the advancement in model performance, several challenges continue to hinder translatability, including small sample sizes and model training on homogenous single institution data. To recognize the potential of radiomics for skull base oncology, prospective, multi-institutional collaboration will be the cornerstone for a validated radiomic technology.

The Driver Role of Pathologists in Endocrine Oncology: What Clinicians Seek in Pathology Reports

Endocrine neoplasia represents an increasingly broad spectrum of disorders. Endocrine neoplasms range from incidental findings to potentially lethal malignancies. In this paper, we cover the impact of pathology in the interpretation of the clinic-pathological, genetic, and radiographic features underpinning these neoplasms. We highlight the critical role of multidisciplinary interactions in structuring a rational diagnostic and efficient therapeutic plan and emphasize the role of histopathological input in decision-making. In this context, standardized pathology reporting and second opinion endocrine pathology review represent relevant tools to improve the overall diagnostic workup of patients affected by endocrine tumors in every specific scenario. In fact, although a relevant proportion of cases may be correctly identified based on clinical presentation and biochemical/imaging investigations, a subset of cases presents with atypical findings that may lead to an inappropriate diagnosis and treatment plan based on a wrong pathological diagnosis if all pieces of the puzzle are not correctly considered. Pathologists have a responsibility to actively guide clinicians before and during surgical procedures to prevent unnecessary interventions. In all areas of endocrine pathology, pathologists must understand the complexity of tissue preservation and assay sensitivities and specificities to ensure the optimal quality and interpretation of diagnostic material. Finally, pathologists are central actors in tumor tissue biobanking, which is an expanding field in oncology that should be promoted while adhering to strict ethical and methodological standards.

Paving the path toward multi-omics approaches in the diagnostic challenges faced in thyroid pathology

INTRODUCTION

Despite advancements in diagnostic methods, the classification of indeterminate thyroid nodules still poses diagnostic challenges not only in pre-surgical evaluation but even after histological evaluation of surgical specimens. Proteomics, aided by mass spectrometry and integrated with artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms, shows great promise in identifying diagnostic markers for thyroid lesions.

AREAS COVERED

This review provides in-depth exploration of how proteomics has contributed to the understanding of thyroid pathology. It discusses the technical advancements related to immunohistochemistry, genetic and proteomic techniques, such as mass spectrometry, which have greatly improved sensitivity and spatial resolution up to single-cell level. These improvements allowed the identification of specific protein signatures associated with different types of thyroid lesions.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Among all the proteomics approaches, spatial proteomics stands out due to its unique ability to capture the spatial context of proteins in both cytological and tissue thyroid samples. The integration of multi-layers of molecular information combining spatial proteomics, genomics, immunohistochemistry or metabolomics and the implementation of artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches, represent hugely promising steps forward toward the possibility to uncover intricate relationships and interactions among various molecular components, providing a complete picture of the biological landscape whilst fostering thyroid nodule diagnosis.

Prevalence of Functioning Adrenal Incidentalomas: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Adrenal hyperfunction is associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic complications in subjects with adrenal incidentaloma (AI). Reliable prevalence estimates of functioning AIs are important to direct resources allocations.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence of autonomous/possible autonomous cortisol secretion (ACS), primary aldosteronism (PA), pheochromocytoma (PHEO), and Cushing syndrome (CS) in patients with AI.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive search of multiple databases (PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, Web of Science) for potentially relevant studies without language restriction, up to February 2022. Of the 1661 publications evaluated at title and abstract levels, 161 were examined as full text and 36 were included. Study level clinical data were extracted by 3 independent reviewers.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of functioning AIs was 27.5% (95% CI 23.0, 32.5). ACS/possible ACS, with a prevalence of 11.7% (95% CI 8.6, 15.7), was the most frequent hormonal alteration, while PA occurred in 4.4% of the patients (95% CI 3.1, 6.2). Subgroup analysis showed that PA was more prevalent in patients from Asia than in patients from Europe/America; in contrast, ACS/possible ACS had a lower prevalence in Asian countries. At meta-regression analysis, the prevalence of ACS/possible ACS was influenced by the proportion of female patients, while the prevalence of PA was positively associated with the proportion of patients with hypertension and the publication year. Finally, PHEO and CS prevalence were 3.8% (95% CI 2.8, 5.0) and 3.1% (95% CI 2.3, 4.3) respectively.

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis provides extensive data on the prevalence of functioning AIs and the factors affecting heterogeneity in prevalence estimates.

DNA-framework-based multidimensional molecular classifiers for cancer diagnosis

A molecular classification of diseases that accurately reflects clinical behaviour lays the foundation of precision medicine. The development of in silico classifiers coupled with molecular implementation based on DNA reactions marks a key advance in more powerful molecular classification, but it nevertheless remains a challenge to process multiple molecular datatypes. Here we introduce a DNA-encoded molecular classifier that can physically implement the computational classification of multidimensional molecular clinical data. To produce unified electrochemical sensing signals across heterogeneous molecular binding events, we exploit DNA-framework-based programmable atom-like nanoparticles with n valence to develop valence-encoded signal reporters that enable linearity in translating virtually any biomolecular binding events to signal gains. Multidimensional molecular information in computational classification is thus precisely assigned weights for bioanalysis. We demonstrate the implementation of a molecular classifier based on programmable atom-like nanoparticles to perform biomarker panel screening and analyse a panel of six biomarkers across three-dimensional datatypes for a near-deterministic molecular taxonomy of prostate cancer patients.

Assessment and prediction of glioblastoma therapy response: challenges and opportunities

Glioblastoma is the most aggressive type of primary adult brain tumour. The median survival of patients with glioblastoma remains approximately 15 months, and the 5-year survival rate is <10%. Current treatment options are limited, and the standard of care has remained relatively constant since 2011. Over the last decade, a range of different treatment regimens have been investigated with very limited success. Tumour recurrence is almost inevitable with the current treatment strategies, as glioblastoma tumours are highly heterogeneous and invasive. Additionally, another challenging issue facing patients with glioblastoma is how to distinguish between tumour progression and treatment effects, especially when relying on routine diagnostic imaging techniques in the clinic. The specificity of routine imaging for identifying tumour progression early or in a timely manner is poor due to the appearance similarity of post-treatment effects. Here, we concisely describe the current status and challenges in the assessment and early prediction of therapy response and the early detection of tumour progression or recurrence. We also summarize and discuss studies of advanced approaches such as quantitative imaging, liquid biomarker discovery and machine intelligence that hold exceptional potential to aid in the therapy monitoring of this malignancy and early prediction of therapy response, which may decisively transform the conventional detection methods in the era of precision medicine.

Artificial intelligence as a noninvasive tool for pancreatic cancer prediction and diagnosis

Pancreatic cancer (PC) has a low incidence rate but a high mortality, with patients often in the advanced stage of the disease at the time of the first diagnosis. If detected, early neoplastic lesions are ideal for surgery, offering the best prognosis. Preneoplastic lesions of the pancreas include pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia and mucinous cystic neoplasms, with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms being the most commonly diagnosed. Our study focused on predicting PC by identifying early signs using noninvasive techniques and artificial intelligence (AI). A systematic English literature search was conducted on the PubMed electronic database and other sources. We obtained a total of 97 studies on the subject of pancreatic neoplasms. The final number of articles included in our study was 44, 34 of which focused on the use of AI algorithms in the early diagnosis and prediction of pancreatic lesions. AI algorithms can facilitate diagnosis by analyzing massive amounts of data in a short period of time. Correlations can be made through AI algorithms by expanding image and electronic medical records databases, which can later be used as part of a screening program for the general population. AI-based screening models should involve a combination of biomarkers and medical and imaging data from different sources. This requires large numbers of resources, collaboration between medical practitioners, and investment in medical infrastructures.

Applications of Deep Learning in Endocrine Neoplasms

Machine learning methods have been growing in prominence across all areas of medicine. In pathology, recent advances in deep learning (DL) have enabled computational analysis of histological samples, aiding in diagnosis and characterization in multiple disease areas. In cancer, and particularly endocrine cancer, DL approaches have been shown to be useful in tasks ranging from tumor grading to gene expression prediction. This review summarizes the current state of DL research in endocrine cancer histopathology with an emphasis on experimental design, significant findings, and key limitations.

Predicting gene mutation status via artificial intelligence technologies based on multimodal integration (MMI) to advance precision oncology

Personalized treatment strategies for cancer frequently rely on the detection of genetic alterations which are determined by molecular biology assays. Historically, these processes typically required single-gene sequencing, next-generation sequencing, or visual inspection of histopathology slides by experienced pathologists in a clinical context. In the past decade, advances in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have demonstrated remarkable potential in assisting physicians with accurate diagnosis of oncology image-recognition tasks. Meanwhile, AI techniques make it possible to integrate multimodal data such as radiology, histology, and genomics, providing critical guidance for the stratification of patients in the context of precision therapy. Given that the mutation detection is unaffordable and time-consuming for a considerable number of patients, predicting gene mutations based on routine clinical radiological scans or whole-slide images of tissue with AI-based methods has become a hot issue in actual clinical practice. In this review, we synthesized the general framework of multimodal integration (MMI) for molecular intelligent diagnostics beyond standard techniques. Then we summarized the emerging applications of AI in the prediction of mutational and molecular profiles of common cancers (lung, brain, breast, and other tumor types) pertaining to radiology and histology imaging. Furthermore, we concluded that there truly exist multiple challenges of AI techniques in the way of its real-world application in the medical field, including data curation, feature fusion, model interpretability, and practice regulations. Despite these challenges, we still prospect the clinical implementation of AI as a highly potential decision-support tool to aid oncologists in future cancer treatment management.

Endocrine Tumor Classification via Machine-Learning-Based Elastography: A Systematic Scoping Review

Elastography complements traditional medical imaging modalities by mapping tissue stiffness to identify tumors in the endocrine system, and machine learning models can further improve diagnostic accuracy and reliability. Our objective in this review was to summarize the applications and performance of machine-learning-based elastography on the classification of endocrine tumors. Two authors independently searched electronic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, IEEEXpress, CINAHL, and EMBASE. Eleven (n = 11) articles were eligible for the review, of which eight (n = 8) focused on thyroid tumors and three (n = 3) considered pancreatic tumors. In all thyroid studies, the researchers used shear-wave ultrasound elastography, whereas the pancreas researchers applied strain elastography with endoscopy. Traditional machine learning approaches or the deep feature extractors were used to extract the predetermined features, followed by classifiers. The applied deep learning approaches included the convolutional neural network (CNN) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Some researchers considered the mixed or sequential training of B-mode and elastographic ultrasound data or fusing data from different image segmentation techniques in machine learning models. All reviewed methods achieved an accuracy of ≥80%, but only three were ≥90% accurate. The most accurate thyroid classification (94.70%) was achieved by applying sequential training CNN; the most accurate pancreas classification (98.26%) was achieved using a CNN-long short-term memory (LSTM) model integrating elastography with B-mode and Doppler images.

Artificial intelligence in pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer is the deadliest disease, with a five-year overall survival rate of just 11%. The pancreatic cancer patients diagnosed with early screening have a median overall survival of nearly ten years, compared with 1.5 years for those not diagnosed with early screening. Therefore, early diagnosis and early treatment of pancreatic cancer are particularly critical. However, as a rare disease, the general screening cost of pancreatic cancer is high, the accuracy of existing tumor markers is not enough, and the efficacy of treatment methods is not exact. In terms of early diagnosis, artificial intelligence technology can quickly locate high-risk groups through medical images, pathological examination, biomarkers, and other aspects, then screening pancreatic cancer lesions early. At the same time, the artificial intelligence algorithm can also be used to predict the survival time, recurrence risk, metastasis, and therapy response which could affect the prognosis. In addition, artificial intelligence is widely used in pancreatic cancer health records, estimating medical imaging parameters, developing computer-aided diagnosis systems, etc. Advances in AI applications for pancreatic cancer will require a concerted effort among clinicians, basic scientists, statisticians, and engineers. Although it has some limitations, it will play an essential role in overcoming pancreatic cancer in the foreseeable future due to its mighty computing power.

Management of Advanced Pancreatic Cancer through Stromal Depletion and Immune Modulation

Pancreatic cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Unfortunately, therapeutic gains in the treatment of other cancers have not successfully translated to pancreatic cancer treatments. Management of pancreatic cancer is difficult due to the lack of effective therapies and the rapid development of drug resistance. The cytotoxic agent gemcitabine has historically been the first-line treatment, but combinations of other immunomodulating and stroma-depleting drugs are currently undergoing clinical testing. Moreover, the treatment of pancreatic cancer is complicated by its heterogeneity: analysis of genomic alterations and expression patterns has led to the definition of multiple subtypes, but their usefulness in the clinical setting is limited by inter-tumoral and inter-personal variability. In addition, various cell types in the tumor microenvironment exert immunosuppressive effects that worsen prognosis. In this review, we discuss current perceptions of molecular features and the tumor microenvironment in pancreatic cancer, and we summarize emerging drug options that can complement traditional chemotherapies.

Application of machine learning algorithms in predicting HIV infection among men who have sex with men: Model development and validation

Background

Continuously growing of HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM), as well as the low rate of HIV testing of MSM in China, demonstrates a need for innovative strategies to improve the implementation of HIV prevention. The use of machine learning algorithms is an increasing tendency in disease diagnosis prediction. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models in predicting HIV infection among MSM that can identify individuals at increased risk of HIV acquisition for transmission-reduction interventions.

Methods

We extracted data from MSM sentinel surveillance in Zhejiang province from 2018 to 2020. Univariate logistic regression was used to select significant variables in 2018-2019 data (P < 0.05). After data processing and feature selection, we divided the model development data into two groups by stratified random sampling: training data (70%) and testing data (30%). The Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was applied to solve the problem of unbalanced data. The evaluation metrics of model performance were comprised of accuracy, precision, recall, F-measure, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Then, we explored three commonly-used machine learning algorithms to compare with logistic regression (LR), including decision tree (DT), support vector machines (SVM), and random forest (RF). Finally, the four models were validated prospectively with 2020 data from Zhejiang province.

Results

A total of 6,346 MSM were included in model development data, 372 of whom were diagnosed with HIV. In feature selection, 12 variables were selected as model predicting indicators. Compared with LR, the algorithms of DT, SVM, and RF improved the classification prediction performance in SMOTE-processed data, with the AUC of 0.778, 0.856, 0.887, and 0.942, respectively. RF was the best-performing algorithm (accuracy = 0.871, precision = 0.960, recall = 0.775, F-measure = 0.858, and AUC = 0.942). And the RF model still performed well on prospective validation (AUC = 0.846).

Conclusion

Machine learning models are substantially better than conventional LR model and RF should be considered in prediction tools of HIV infection in Chinese MSM. Further studies are needed to optimize and promote these algorithms and evaluate their impact on HIV prevention of MSM.

Machine Learning for Outcome Prediction in First-Line Surgery of Prolactinomas

BACKGROUND

First-line surgery for prolactinomas has gained increasing acceptance, but the indication still remains controversial. Thus, accurate prediction of unfavorable outcomes after upfront surgery in prolactinoma patients is critical for the triage of therapy and for interdisciplinary decision-making.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether contemporary machine learning (ML) methods can facilitate this crucial prediction task in a large cohort of prolactinoma patients with first-line surgery, we investigated the performance of various classes of supervised classification algorithms. The primary endpoint was ML-applied risk prediction of long-term dopamine agonist (DA) dependency. The secondary outcome was the prediction of the early and long-term control of hyperprolactinemia.

METHODS

By jointly examining two independent performance metrics - the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) - in combination with a stacked super learner, we present a novel perspective on how to assess and compare the discrimination capacity of a set of binary classifiers.

RESULTS

We demonstrate that for upfront surgery in prolactinoma patients there are not a one-algorithm-fits-all solution in outcome prediction: different algorithms perform best for different time points and different outcomes parameters. In addition, ML classifiers outperform logistic regression in both performance metrics in our cohort when predicting the primary outcome at long-term follow-up and secondary outcome at early follow-up, thus provide an added benefit in risk prediction modeling. In such a setting, the stacking framework of combining the predictions of individual base learners in a so-called super learner offers great potential: the super learner exhibits very good prediction skill for the primary outcome (AUROC: mean 0.9, 95% CI: 0.92 - 1.00; MCC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.60 - 1.00). In contrast, predicting control of hyperprolactinemia is challenging, in particular in terms of early follow-up (AUROC: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.50 - 0.83) vs. long-term follow-up (AUROC: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.58 - 0.97). It is of clinical importance that baseline prolactin levels are by far the most important outcome predictor at early follow-up, whereas remissions at 30 days dominate the ML prediction skill for DA-dependency over the long-term.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the performance benefits of combining a diverse set of classification algorithms to predict the outcome of first-line surgery in prolactinoma patients. We demonstrate the added benefit of considering two performance metrics jointly to assess the discrimination capacity of a diverse set of classifiers.