Implementation of FAIR principles in the IPCC: the WGI AR6 Atlas repository

Modelling climate impacts on paediatric sepsis incidence and severity in Bangladesh

Background

Sepsis is a leading cause of paediatric mortality worldwide, disproportionately affecting children in low- and middle-income countries. The impacts of climate change on the burden and outcomes of sepsis in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in paediatric populations, remain poorly understood. We aimed to assess the associations between climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and paediatric sepsis incidence and mortality in Bangladesh, one of the countries most affected by climate change.

Methods

We conducted retrospective analyses of patient-level data from the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, and environmental data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Using random forests, we assessed associations between sepsis incidence and sepsis mortality with temperature and precipitation between 2009-22.

Results

A nonlinear relationship between temperature and sepsis incidence and mortality was identified. The lowest incidence occurred at an optimum temperature of 26.6°C with a gradual increase below and a sharp rise above this temperature. Higher precipitation levels showed a general trend of increased sepsis incidence. A similar distribution for sepsis mortality was identified with an optimum temperature of 28°C.

Conclusions

Findings suggest that environmental temperature and precipitation play a role in paediatric sepsis incidence and sepsis mortality in Bangladesh. As children are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, it is important to consider climate change in health care planning and resource allocation, especially in resource-limited settings, to allow for surge capacity planning during warmer and wetter seasons. Further prospective research from more globally representative data sets will provide more robust evidence on the nature of the relationships between climate variables and paediatric sepsis worldwide.

Effects of water flow and ocean acidification on oxygen and pH gradients in coral boundary layer

Reef-building corals live in highly hydrodynamic environments, where water flow largely controls the complex chemical microenvironments surrounding them-the concentration boundary layer (CBL). The CBL may be key to alleviate ocean acidification (OA) effects on coral colonies by partially isolating them. However, OA effects on coral CBL remain poorly understood, particularly under different flow velocities. Here, we investigated these effects on the reef-building corals Acropora cytherea, Pocillopora verrucosa, and Porites cylindrica. We preconditioned corals to a control (pH 8.0) and OA (pH 7.8) treatment for four months and tested how low flow (2 cm s-1) and moderate flow (6 cm s-1) affected O2 and H+ CBL traits (thickness, surface concentrations, and flux) inside a unidirectional-flow chamber. We found that CBL traits differed between species and flow velocities. Under OA, traits remained generally stable across flows, except surface pH. In all species, the H+ CBL was thin and led to lower surface pH. Still, low flow thickened H+ CBLs and increased light elevation of surface pH. In general, our findings reveal a weak to null OA modulation of the CBL. Moreover, the OA-buffering capacity by the H+ CBL may be limited in coral species, though low flow could enhance CBL sheltering.

Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe's future.

Controls on timescales of soil organic carbon persistence across sub-Saharan Africa

Given the importance of soil for the global carbon cycle, it is essential to understand not only how much carbon soil stores but also how long this carbon persists. Previous studies have shown that the amount and age of soil carbon are strongly affected by the interaction of climate, vegetation, and mineralogy. However, these findings are primarily based on studies from temperate regions and from fine-scale studies, leaving large knowledge gaps for soils from understudied regions such as sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, there is a lack of data to validate modeled soil C dynamics at broad scales. Here, we present insights into organic carbon cycling, based on a new broad-scale radiocarbon and mineral dataset for sub-Saharan Africa. We found that in moderately weathered soils in seasonal climate zones with poorly crystalline and reactive clay minerals, organic carbon persists longer on average (topsoil: 201 ± 130 years; subsoil: 645 ± 385 years) than in highly weathered soils in humid regions (topsoil: 140 ± 46 years; subsoil: 454 ± 247 years) with less reactive minerals. Soils in arid climate zones (topsoil: 396 ± 339 years; subsoil: 963 ± 669 years) store organic carbon for periods more similar to those in seasonal climate zones, likely reflecting climatic constraints on weathering, carbon inputs and microbial decomposition. These insights into the timescales of organic carbon persistence in soils of sub-Saharan Africa suggest that a process-oriented grouping of soils based on pedo-climatic conditions may be useful to improve predictions of soil responses to climate change at broader scales.

Genotype and phenotype data standardization, utilization and integration in the big data era for agricultural sciences

Large-scale genotype and phenotype data have been increasingly generated to identify genetic markers, understand gene function and evolution and facilitate genomic selection. These datasets hold immense value for both current and future studies, as they are vital for crop breeding, yield improvement and overall agricultural sustainability. However, integrating these datasets from heterogeneous sources presents significant challenges and hinders their effective utilization. We established the Genotype-Phenotype Working Group in November 2021 as a part of the AgBioData Consortium (https://www.agbiodata.org) to review current data types and resources that support archiving, analysis and visualization of genotype and phenotype data to understand the needs and challenges of the plant genomic research community. For 2021-22, we identified different types of datasets and examined metadata annotations related to experimental design/methods/sample collection, etc. Furthermore, we thoroughly reviewed publicly funded repositories for raw and processed data as well as secondary databases and knowledgebases that enable the integration of heterogeneous data in the context of the genome browser, pathway networks and tissue-specific gene expression. Based on our survey, we recommend a need for (i) additional infrastructural support for archiving many new data types, (ii) development of community standards for data annotation and formatting, (iii) resources for biocuration and (iv) analysis and visualization tools to connect genotype data with phenotype data to enhance knowledge synthesis and to foster translational research. Although this paper only covers the data and resources relevant to the plant research community, we expect that similar issues and needs are shared by researchers working on animals. Database URL: https://www.agbiodata.org.

Assessing digital accessible botanical knowledge and priorities for exploration and discovery of plant diversity across Mesoamerica

Digital accessible biodiversity knowledge has the potential to greatly advance botanical research and guide conservation efforts. Evaluating its shortfalls is key to understanding its limits and prioritising regions in need of renewed survey efforts. We used the Royal Botanical Gardens Kew's World Checklist of Vascular Plants to parse publicly available occurrence data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and quantify the spatial distribution of spatial, phylogenetic, and temporal data shortfalls across Mesoamerica. After processing 3578 777 occurrence records for 32 522 species of vascular plants across Mesoamerica, we found evidence of poor data coverage: incomplete characterisation of species diversity, old occurrence records, and low phylogenetic representation. One-third of the region showed large gaps for at least one of these dimensions (hotspots) and < 15% had adequate data coverage across dimensions. Overall, the shortfalls we identified compromise the quality of digitally available occurrence data and hamper research on spatial phylogenetics and species dynamics under anthropogenic disturbances. Our analyses identified areas of opportunity for increased efforts in data digitisation, botanical exploration, sequencing, and biodiversity monitoring. These efforts would serve to increase and rejuvenate knowledge on the geographic distribution of vascular plants in Mesoamerica.

Developmental Differentiations of Major Maize Stemborers Due to Global Warming in Temperate and Tropical Climates

While many insects are in decline due to global warming, the effect of rising temperatures on crop insect pests is uncertain. A capacity to understand future changes in crop pest populations remains critical to ensure food security. Using temperature-dependent mathematical models of the development of four maize stemborers in temperate and tropical regions, we evaluated the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on development time. While recognizing the limitations of the temperature-dependent development rate approach, we found that global warming could either be beneficial or detrimental to pest development, depending on the optimal temperature for the development of the species and scenarios of climate change. Expected responses range from null development to 1.5 times faster development than expected today. These results suggest that in the medium term, the studied species could benefit from global warming with an accelerated development, while in the long term, their development could either be delayed or accelerated, which may impact their dynamics with implications on maize cultivation.

Negative effects of winter and spring warming on the regeneration of forest spring geophytes

The climate is changing rapidly, provoking species to shift their ranges poleward and upslope. We currently lack a mechanistic understanding of the effect of warmer temperatures on plants, especially for seasonally distinct patterns. Spring geophytes are emblematic forest plants that have a short aboveground lifecycle in the first half of the year and are thus particularly sensitive to winter and spring warming. We set up a warming experiment with separate and combined winter and spring warming on seedlings of three European spring geophytes: Anemone nemorosa, Hyacinthoides non-scripta and Ornithogalum pyrenaicum. Seedling emergence and plant height were recorded at the end of winter and spring treatment, when also biomass of the root, shoot and storage organ was determined. We found negative effects of combined winter and spring warming on seedling emergence. The weight of the storage organ proved to be the best indicator of seedling performance and was negatively affected by separate winter warming in Anemone and by spring warming in Hyacinthoides. Successful seedling emergence was jeopardized by the absence of a cold period, while seedling performance seemed to be negatively influenced directly by higher temperatures through a phenological shift. Our findings confirm that warmer winter and spring temperatures could hamper regeneration of spring geophytes.

Mediterranean viticulture in the context of climate change

The exposure of viticulture to climate change and extreme weather conditions makes the winemaking sector particularly vulnerable, being one of its major challenges in the current century. While grapevine is considered a highly tolerant crop to several abiotic stresses, Mediterranean areas are frequently affected by adverse environmental factors, namely water scarcity, heat and high irradiance, and are especially vulnerable to climate change. Due to the high socio-economic value of this sector in Europe, the study of adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative climate change impacts are of main importance for its sustainability and competitiveness. Adaptation strategies include all the set of actions and processes that can be performed in response to climate change. It is crucial to improve agronomic strategies to offset the loss of productivity and likely changes in production and fruit quality. It is important to look for new insights concerning response mechanisms to these stresses to advance with more effective and precise measures. These measures should be adjusted to local terroirs and regional climate change projections for the sustainable development of the winemaking sector. This review describes the direct climate change impacts (on phenology, physiology, yield and berry quality), risks, and uncertainties for Mediterranean viticulture, as well as a set of canopy, soil and water management practices that winegrowers can use to adapt their vines to warmer and drier conditions.