Discriminating between natural and anthropogenic earthquakes: insights from the Emilia Romagna (Italy) 2012 seismic sequence

Earthquake hazard and risk analysis for natural and induced seismicity: towards objective assessments in the face of uncertainty

The fundamental objective of earthquake engineering is to protect lives and livelihoods through the reduction of seismic risk. Directly or indirectly, this generally requires quantification of the risk, for which quantification of the seismic hazard is required as a basic input. Over the last several decades, the practice of seismic hazard analysis has evolved enormously, firstly with the introduction of a rational framework for handling the apparent randomness in earthquake processes, which also enabled risk assessments to consider both the severity and likelihood of earthquake effects. The next major evolutionary step was the identification of epistemic uncertainties related to incomplete knowledge, and the formulation of frameworks for both their quantification and their incorporation into hazard assessments. Despite these advances in the practice of seismic hazard analysis, it is not uncommon for the acceptance of seismic hazard estimates to be hindered by invalid comparisons, resistance to new information that challenges prevailing views, and attachment to previous estimates of the hazard. The challenge of achieving impartial acceptance of seismic hazard and risk estimates becomes even more acute in the case of earthquakes attributed to human activities. A more rational evaluation of seismic hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes may be facilitated by adopting, with appropriate adaptations, the advances in risk quantification and risk mitigation developed for natural seismicity. While such practices may provide an impartial starting point for decision making regarding risk mitigation measures, the most promising avenue to achieve broad societal acceptance of the risks associated with induced earthquakes is through effective regulation, which needs to be transparent, independent, and informed by risk considerations based on both sound seismological science and reliable earthquake engineering.

Validation of Rayleigh Wave Theoretical Formulation with Single-Station Rotational Records of Mine Tremors in Lower Silesian Copper Basin

The classical Rayleigh surface rotational wave in terms of its theoretical notation and, resulting from this, properties associated with the induced seismic phenomena in mines are presented. This kind of seismic wave was analysed in-depth from the point of view of the parameters governing the form of its mathematical notation based on the similarity to the records obtained during the induced seismicity in near-field 6-DoF monitoring. Furthermore, conducted field measurements made it possible to relate the amount of the emitted seismic energy to the expected highest amplitude of rotational vibrations in the entire field of their impact on the rock mass. As a result, this made it possible to impose the completely defined R wave to the numerical models of given objects; the safety level, when subjected to the dynamic load induced by the rotational wave, would be an objective of the performed analyses. The conducted preliminary analyses were prepared for a plane strain state, for which the values of seismic rotations were evaluated concerning the energy and the distance of the seismic event’s source. As a result of the performed simulations, it was found that the results of the calculations matched with a satisfying degree with the field seismic measurements of the rotational ground motion induced by propagating the seismic wave. Such a verified analytical description of the theoretical formulas can be the basis for the implementation of R-wave characteristics into seismic codes and numerical analyses of object stability in the Lower Silesian Copper Basin region.