Effects of high CD4 cell counts on death and attrition among HIV patients receiving antiretroviral treatment: an observational cohort study

HIV transmission and associated factors under the scale-up of HIV antiretroviral therapy: a population-based longitudinal molecular network study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the prevention efficacy of scaling up HIV/AIDS antiretroviral therapy (ART) on HIV transmission at the population level and determine associated factors of HIV secondary transmission.

METHODS

We used HIV longitudinal molecular networks to assess the genetic linkage between baseline and newly diagnosed cases. A generalized estimating equation was applied to determine the associations between demographic, clinical characteristics and HIV transmission.

RESULTS

Patients on ART had a 32% lower risk of HIV transmission than those not on ART. A 36% reduction in risk was also seen if ART-patients maintained their HIV viral load lower than 50 copies/mL. A 71% lower risk occurred when patients sustained ART for at least 3 years and kept HIV viral load less than 50 copies/mL. Patients who discontinued ART had a similar HIV transmission risk as those not on ART. Patients who were older, male, non-Han, not single, retired, infected via a heterosexual route of transmission and those who possessed higher CD4 counts had a higher risk of HIV transmission. HIV-1 subtype of CRF01_AE was less transmissible than other subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

The efficacy of ART in a real-world setting was supported by this longitudinal molecular network study. Promoting adherence to ART is crucial to reduce HIV transmission.

The impact of attrition on the transmission of HIV and drug resistance

BACKGROUND

Attrition due to loss to follow-up or termination of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among HIV-infected patients in care may increase the risk of emergence and transmission of drug resistance (TDR), diminish benefit of treatment, and increase morbidity and mortality. Understanding the impact of attrition on the epidemic is essential to provide interventions for improving retention in care.

METHODS

We developed a comprehensive HIV transmission dynamics model by considering CD4 + cell count dependent diagnosis, treatment, and attrition involving TDR and acquired drug resistance. The model was calibrated by 11 groups HIV/AIDS surveillance data during 2008-2018 from Guangxi, China, and validated by the prevalence of TDR among diagnosed treatment-naive individuals. We aimed to investigate how attrition would affect the transmission of HIV and drug-resistance when expanding ART.

RESULTS

In the base case with CD4 + cell count dependent per capita attrition rates 0.025∼0.15 and treatment rates 0.23∼0.42, we projected cumulative total new infections, new drug-resistant infections, and HIV-related deaths over 2022-2030 would be 145 391, 7637, and 51 965, respectively. Increasing treatment rates by 0.1∼0.2 can decrease the above total new infections (deaths) by 1.63∼2.93% (3.52∼6.16%). However, even 0.0114∼0.0220 (0.0352∼0.0695) increase in attrition rates would offset this benefit of decreasing infections (deaths). Increasing treatment rates (attrition rates) by 0.05∼0.1 would increase the above drug-resistant infections by 0.16∼0.30% (22.18∼41.15%).

CONCLUSION

A minor increase in attrition can offset the benefit of treatment expansion and increase the transmission of HIV drug resistance. Reducing attrition rates for patients already in treatment may be as important as expanding treatment for untreated patients.

Genetic network analysis of human immunodeficiency virus sexual transmission in rural Southwest China after the expansion of antiretroviral therapy: A population-based study

Background

This study is used to analyze the genetic network of HIV sexual transmission in rural areas of Southwest China after expanding antiretroviral therapy (ART) and to investigate the factors associated with HIV sexual transmission through the genetic network.

Materials and methods

This was a longitudinal genetic network study in Guangxi, China. The baseline survey and follow-up study were conducted among patients with HIV in 2015, and among those newly diagnosed from 2016 to 2018, respectively. A generalized estimating equation model was employed to explore the factors associated with HIV transmission through the genetic linkage between newly diagnosed patients with HIV (2016-2018) and those at baseline (2015-2017), respectively.

Results

Of 3,259 identified HIV patient sequences, 2,714 patients were at baseline, and 545 were newly diagnosed patients with HIV at follow-up. A total of 8,691 baseline objectives were observed by repeated measurement analysis. The prevention efficacy in HIV transmission for treated HIV patients was 33% [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.48-0.93]. Stratified analyses indicated the prevention efficacy in HIV transmission for treated HIV patients with a viral load (VL) of <50 copies/ml and those treated for 4 years with a VL of <50 copies/ml to be 41 [AOR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.43-0.82] and 65% [AOR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.24-0.50], respectively. No significant reduction in HIV transmission occurred among treated HIV patients with VL missing or treated HIV patients on dropout. Some factors were associated with HIV transmission, including over 50 years old, men, Zhuang and other nationalities, with less than secondary schooling, working as a farmer, and heterosexual transmission.

Conclusion

This study reveals the role of ART in reducing HIV transmission, and those older male farmers with less than secondary schooling are at high risk of HIV infection at a population level. Improvements to ART efficacy for patients with HIV and precision intervention on high-risk individuals during the expansion of ART are urgently required.

Induction-phase treatment costs for cryptococcal meningitis in high HIV-burden African countries: New opportunities with lower costs

Introduction: Access to and the cost of induction treatment for cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is rapidly changing. The newly-announced price for flucytosine ($0.75 per 500 mg pill) and possibly lower prices for liposomal amphotericin B (AmB-L) create opportunities to reduce CM treatment costs compared to the current standard treatment in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: We developed an Excel-based cost model to estimate health system treatment costs for CM over a two-week induction phase for multiple treatment combinations, newly feasible with improved access to flucytosine and AmB-L. CM treatment costs include medications, laboratory tests and other hospital-based costs (bed-day costs and healthcare worker time). We report results from applying the model using country-specific information for South Africa, Uganda, Nigeria, and Botswana. Results: A 14-day induction-phase of seven days of inpatient AmB-D with flucytosine, followed by seven days of high-dose fluconazole as an outpatient, will cost health systems less than a 14-day hospital stay with AmB-D and fluconazole. If daily AmB-L replaces AmB-D for those with baseline renal dysfunction, with a cost of $50 or less per 50 mg vial, incremental costs would still be less than the AmB-D with fluconazole regimen. Simple oral combinations (e.g., seven days of flucytosine with fluconazole as an inpatient) are practical when AmB-D is not available, and treatment costs would remain less than the current standard treatment. Conclusions: Improved access to and lower prices for flucytosine and AmB-L create opportunities for improving CM treatment regimens. An induction regimen of flucytosine and AmB-D for seven days is less costly than standard care in the settings studied here. As this regimen has also been shown to be more effective than current standard care, countries should prioritize scaling up flucytosine access. The cost of AmB-L based regimens is highly dependent on the price of AmB-L, which currently remains unclear.

Baseline and Process Factors of Anti-Retroviral Therapy That Predict Loss to Follow-up Among People Living with HIV/AIDS in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study

We explored the predictors and predictive models of loss to follow-up (LTFU) during the first year of anti-retroviral therapy (ART). LTFU was defined as the failure to visit the clinic for antiretroviral drugs for ≥ 90 days after the last missed scheduled visit. Based on the electronic medical records of 5953 patients who were HIV positive and began ART between 2016 and 2019 in China, the LTFU rate was 7.24 (95% confidence interval 6.49-7.97) per 100 person-years during the first year of ART. ART baseline factors were associated with LTFU, but were non-optimal predictors. A model including ART process-related factors such as follow-up behaviors and physical health status had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 73.4% for predicting LTFU. Therefore, the medical records of follow-up visits can be used to identify patients with a high risk of LTFU and allow interventions to be implemented proactively.

Induction-phase treatment costs for cryptococcal meningitis in high HIV-burden African countries: New opportunities with lower costs

Introduction: Access to and the cost of induction treatment for cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is rapidly changing. The newly-announced price for flucytosine ($0.75 per 500 mg pill) and possibly lower prices for liposomal amphotericin B (AmB-L) create opportunities to reduce CM treatment costs compared to the current standard treatment in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: We developed an Excel-based cost model to estimate health system treatment costs for CM over a two-week induction phase for multiple treatment combinations, newly feasible with improved access to flucytosine and AmB-L. CM treatment costs include medications, laboratory tests and other hospital-based costs (bed-day costs and healthcare worker time). We report results from applying the model using country-specific information for South Africa, Uganda, Nigeria, and Botswana. Results: A 14-day induction-phase of seven days of inpatient AmB-D with flucytosine, followed by seven days of high-dose fluconazole as an outpatient, will cost health systems less than a 14-day hospital stay with AmB-D and fluconazole. If daily AmB-L replaces AmB-D for those with baseline renal dysfunction, with a cost of $50 or less per 50 mg vial, incremental costs would still be less than the AmB-D with fluconazole regimen. Simple oral combinations (e.g., seven days of flucytosine with fluconazole as an inpatient) are practical when AmB-D is not available, and treatment costs would remain less than the current standard treatment. Conclusions: Improved access to, and lower prices for flucytosine and AmB-L create opportunities for improving CM treatment regimens. An induction regimen of flucytosine and AmB-D for seven days is less costly than standard care in the settings studied here. As this regimen has also been shown to be more effective than current standard care, countries should prioritize scaling up flucytosine access. The cost of AmB-L based regimens is highly dependent on the price of AmB-L, which currently remains unclear.

Higher Risk of Mortality and Virologic Failure in HIV-Infected Patients With High Viral Load at Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation: An Observational Cohort Study in Chongqing, China

Background

Viral load (VL) is a strong predictor of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of high baseline VL on antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes among HIV-infected patients.

Methods

This retrospective study observed HIV-infected patients who had baseline VL test at ART initiation between 2015 and 2019 in Chongqing, China. Cox proportional hazards regression and logistic regression models were used to evaluate the effects of baseline VL on Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related mortality and virologic failure, respectively.

Results

The cohort included 7,176 HIV-infected patients, of whom 38.7% had a baseline VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL. Of the patients who died during follow-up, 58.9% had a baseline VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL. Compared with a baseline VL < 10,000 copies/mL, ART initiation at VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL was significantly associated with the AIDS-related death (adjusted hazard ratio, AHR = 1.4) and virologic failure (adjusted odds ratio, AOR = 2.4). Compared with patients with a baseline VL < 10,000 copies/mL, patients on the recommended first-line regimen with a VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL at ART initiaition had higher mortality rate (5.1 vs. 1.7 per 100 person-years), but there was no significant difference in the mortality accoding to the initial VL level among patients on second-line ART (2.8 vs. 2.7 per 100 person-years). ART initiation ≤ 30 days after HIV diagnosis was associated with a lower risk of AIDS-related death (AHR = 0.6).

Conclusions

ART initiation with VL ≥ 100,000 copies/mL was associated with a significantly greater risk of mortality and virologic failure. Optimizing the ART regimen and initiating ART early may help to reduce mortality effectively among patients with a high baseline VL. VL testing for all HIV patients is recommended at HIV diagnosis or on ART initiation.

Plasma Extracellular Vesicles Enhance HIV-1 Infection of Activated CD4+ T Cells and Promote the Activation of Latently Infected J-Lat10.6 Cells via miR-139-5p Transfer

HIV latency is a challenge to the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Hence patients may benefit from interventions that efficiently reactivate the latent virus to be eliminated by ARTs. Here we show that plasma extracellular vesicles (pEVs) can enhance HIV infection of activated CD4⁺ T cells and reactivate the virus in latently infected J-Lat 10.6 cells. Evaluation of the extravesicular miRNA cargo by a PCR array revealed that pEVs from HIV patients express miR-139-5p. Furthermore, we found that increased levels of miR-139-5p in J-Lat 10.6 cells incubated with pEVs corresponded with reduced expression of the transcription factor, FOXO1. pEV treatment also corresponded with increased miR-139-5p expression in stimulated PD1+ Jurkat cells, but with concomitant upregulation of FOXO1, Fos, Jun, PD-1 and PD-L1. However, J-Lat 10.6 cells incubated with miR-139-5p inhibitor-transfected pEVs from HIV ART-naïve and on-ART patients expressed reduced levels of miR-139-5p than cells treated with pEVs from healthy controls (HC). Collectively, our results indicate that pEV miR-139-5p belongs to a network of miRNAs that can promote cell activation, including latent HIV-infected cells by regulating the expression of FOXO1 and the PD1/PD-L1 promoters, Fos and Jun.

Induction-phase treatment costs for cryptococcal meningitis in high HIV-burden African countries: New opportunities with lower costs

Introduction: Access to and the cost of induction treatment for cryptococcal meningitis (CM) is rapidly changing. The newly-announced price for flucytosine ($0.75 per 500 mg pill) and possibly lower prices for liposomal amphotericin B (AmB-L) create opportunities to reduce CM treatment costs compared to the current standard treatment in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: We developed an Excel-based cost model to estimate health system treatment costs for CM over a two-week induction phase for multiple treatment combinations, newly feasible with improved access to flucytosine and AmB-L. CM treatment costs include medications, laboratory tests and other hospital-based costs (bed-day costs and healthcare worker time). We report results from applying the model using country-specific information for South Africa, Uganda, Nigeria, and Botswana. Results: A 14-day induction-phase of seven days of inpatient AmB-D with flucytosine, followed by seven days of high-dose fluconazole as an outpatient, will cost health systems less than a 14-day hospital stay with AmB-D and fluconazole. If daily AmB-L replaces AmB-D for those with baseline renal dysfunction, with a cost of $50 or less per 50 mg vial, incremental costs would still be less than the AmB-D with fluconazole regimen. Simple oral combinations (e.g., seven days of flucytosine with fluconazole as an inpatient) are practical when AmB-D is not available, and treatment costs would remain less than the current standard treatment. Conclusions: Improved access to, and lower prices for flucytosine and AmB-L create opportunities for improving CM treatment regimens. An induction regimen of flucytosine and AmB-D for seven days is less costly than standard care in the settings studied here. As this regimen has also been shown to be more effective than current standard care, countries should prioritize scaling up flucytosine access. The cost of AmB-L based regimens is highly dependent on the price of AmB-L, which currently remains unclear.

Using longitudinal genetic-network study to understand HIV treatment-as-prevention

OBJECTIVE

The WHO has recommended that antiretroviral therapy be provided to all HIV patients to reduce future HIV transmission rates. However, few studies have examined this public health strategy at the population level in a real-world setting.

METHODS

In this longitudinal genetic-network study in Guangxi, China, the baseline and follow-up data were collected from HIV patients in 2014 and newly diagnosed HIV patients from 2015 to 2018, respectively. The prevention efficacy was used to estimate the effect of treatment-as-prevention in reducing HIV secondary transmission.

RESULTS

Among 804 newly diagnosed HIV patients during 2015-2018, 399 (49.6%) of them genetically linked to HIV patients at baseline during 2014-2017. The overall proportion of genetic linkage between newly diagnosed HIV patients during 2015-2018 with untreated and treated HIV patients at baseline during 2014-2017 was 6.2 and 2.9%, respectively. The prevention efficacy in HIV transmission for treated HIV patients was 53.6% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 42.1-65.1]. Subgroup analyses indicated an 80.3% (95% CI: 74.8-85.8) reduction in HIV transmission among HIV patients who were treated for 4 years or more and had viral loads less than 50 copies/ml. There was no significant reduction in HIV transmission among treated HIV patients who dropped out or who had missing viral load measures.

CONCLUSION

Our study results support the feasibility of treating all HIV patients for future reductions in HIV transmission at the population level in real-world settings. Comprehensive intervention prevention programmes are urgently needed.

Survival, CD4 T lymphocyte count recovery and immune reconstitution pattern during the first-line combination antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection in Mongolia

Mongolia has a low incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, with 281 cases reported at the end of 2019 and an estimated incidence rate of <0.01 cases per 1000 population.

However, no study has analyzed the association between antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes and pretreatment characteristics of patients with HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Mongolia. This retrospective study aimed to determine the survival, CD4 T cell recovery, and immune reconstitution pattern during ART in HIV patients and to determine baseline patient characteristics associated with ART outcomes. Based on three different World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, we analyzed the 3-year observation data of 166 patients with HIV/AIDS who received treatment between 2010 and 2017. An increase of >50 cells/μL indicated CD4 T cell count recovery, and a cell count of ≥500 cells/μL in patients with a baseline cell count of <500 cells/μL indicated immune reconstitution. In this study, the 3- and 1-year mortality rates were 5.4% (survival rate: 94.6%) and 3.6%, respectively. A total of 83% of deaths that occurred in the observation time occurred within the first 3 months. The CD4 T cell count recovery rates at 3, 12, and 36 months were 62.7%, 80.7%, and 89.2%, respectively. The CD4 T cell count increased to >500 cells/μL in 95 of 145 (65.5%) patients with a baseline cell count of <500 cells/μL after 36 months of ART. The baseline CD4 T cell count was found to be a sensitive indicator for immune reconstitution. An advanced pretreatment clinical stage of HIV infection (as classified by the WHO classification), a low CD4 T cell count in the peripheral blood, and a high viral load before the initiation of the first-line ART accurately predicted survival, CD4 T cell count recovery, and immune reconstitution in Mongolian patients with HIV/AIDS.

Rate and Predictors of Mortality Among Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, North West Ethiopia

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a chronic communicable disease with devastating global socio-economic, and political impacts commonly affecting the young and early adult populations. Ethiopia is doing well in controlling HIV/AIDS epidemic infection among African countries. This study set out to determine the mortality rate and its predictors among adults on antiretroviral therapy at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A hospital-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted from February to March 2018. A computer-generated simple random sample selected 480 cards of patients on antiretroviral therapy who were enrolled between February 2010 to January 2018. Epi-data Version 4.2 software was used for data entry and SPSS Version 25 for management and analysis. An adjusted hazard rate with a 95% confidence interval was used to identify significant predictors of mortality.

Results

The mortality rate was about 3.9 per 100 person-years. Cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy (AHR: 2.99; 95% CI: 1.58, 5.70), being single (AHR: 2.37: 95% CI: 1.15, 4.87), non-disclosed status (AHR: 7.77; 95% CI: 3.76, 16.06), anemia (AHR: 2.16; 95% CI: 1.14, 4.09), bedridden (AHR: 6.11; 95% CI: 2.42, 15.41) or ambulatory (AHR: 2.16; 95%: 1.04, 4.51), presence of opportunistic infections (OIs) (AHR: 5.02; 95% CI: 1.70, 14.83) and tuberculosis (TB) co-infection (AHR: 5.57; 95% CI: 2.23, 13.88) were the significant predictors.

Conclusion and Recommendation

This study had a high mortality rate. Being single, bedridden, TB coinfection, anemia, and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis were the predictors of mortality. Therefore, psychological support and close follow-up for single, non-disclosed, non-adherent patients and early detection and treatment of anemia, tuberculosis, and OIs to reduce mortality is recommended.

Mortality and Attrition Rates within the First Year of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation among People Living with HIV in Guangxi, China: An Observational Cohort Study

Objective

To assess the mortality and attrition rates within the first year of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) in rural Guangxi, China.

Design

Observational cohort study. Setting. The core treatment indicators and data were collected with standard and essential procedures as per the Free ART Manual guidelines across all the rural health care centers of Guangxi. Participants. 58,115 PLHIV who were under ART were included in the study. Interventions. The data collected included sociodemographic characteristics that consist of age, sex, marital status, route of HIV transmission, CD4 cell count before ART, initial ART regimen, level of ART site, and year of ART initiation. Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures. Mortality and attrition rate following ART initiation.

Results

The average mortality rate was 5.94 deaths, and 17.52 attritions per 100 person-years within the first year of ART initiation among PLHIV. The mortality rate was higher among intravenous drug users (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 1.27, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.14-1.43), prefecture as a level of ART site (AHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28), and county as the level of ART site (AHR 2.12, 95% CI 1.90-2.37). Attrition was higher among intravenous drug users (AHR 1.87, 95% CI 1.75-2.00), the first-line ART containing AZT (AHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03-1.16), and first-line ART containing LVP/r (AHR 1.34, 95% CI 1.23-1.46).

Conclusion

The mortality and attrition rates were both at the highest level in the first year of post-ART; continued improvement in the quality of HIV treatment and care is needed.

Statistical Joint Modeling for Predicting the Association of CD4 Measurement and Time to Death of People Living with HIV Who Enrolled in ART, Southwest Ethiopia

Background

In much epidemiological HIV research, patients are often followed over a period of time to predict their survival on the basis of repeatedly measured CD4 status. To predict survival, statistical models of the association between mortality and longitudinal CD4 measurement have been conducted widely using time-varying Cox models. However, in the presence of repeated measure, this approach leads to biased estimates. In view of the limitation of time-varying Cox models, in the present study, we considered joint modeling to predict the association of longitudinal CD4 measurement and time to death among patients initiated on ART.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was employed for five years from 2009 to 2014 on a randomly selected 358 samples. Data were collected from patients’ ART and pre-ART follow-up registration book, database and other clinical records. Data were analyzed using joint latent class modeling of repeated CD4 measurement and time-to-event (HIV death).

Results

We have studied a total of 358 HIV-positive patients. The median and interquartile ranges of the age of patients were 30.31 years and 13.82, respectively. Males constitute the larger proportion, 51.68%. The square root of CD4 count has declined on average over time. This has been indicated with the negative sign of the coefficient for the time effect. The deterioration of health of individuals is severe in class 1, it has been observed with a worse decline in CD4 cell counts over time in this class than other classes (β= −0.488). Women had a larger risk rate than men (β=−2.475, p-value=0.013). Besides, the CD4 counts measurement of patients has been revealed to decrease as age increases (β= −0.016, p=0.008).

Conclusion

The finding indicated that the square root CD4 cell measurement dropped over time in the three classes. This clearly suggested deterioration in the health of individuals. Women were found to have a higher hazard rate than men.

Effects of HIV-1 genotype on baseline CD4+ cell count and mortality before and after antiretroviral therapy

To assess whether human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) genotype influences baseline CD4+ T lymphocyte (CD4+) cell count and mortality of patients. The study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 in Guangxi, China, and included 2845 newly diagnosed HIV patients. We used a median regression model to compare CD4+ cell counts in patients newly diagnosed with different HIV-1 genotypes, and a Cox regression model to analyze the associations between HIV-1 genotypes and mortality before and after antiretroviral treatment (ART). In newly diagnosed HIV patients, the baseline CD4+ cell counts of patients with CRF01_AE were significantly lower than those of patients with CRF07_BC, CRF08_BC, and other genotypes. Compared with CRF01_AE, patients infected with CRF07_BC (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% CI 0.36–0.85), CRF08_BC (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% CI 0.52–0.85), or other genotypes (hazard ratio, 0.52; 95% CI 0.29–0.94) had significantly lower mortality rates before ART. There were no significant associations between different HIV-1 genotypes and mortality after ART. HIV-1 genotype significantly influences baseline CD4+ cell count and mortality before ART in newly diagnosed HIV patients. We find no significant difference in the outcome of death after ART in patients with different HIV-1 genotypes.

Effect of AIDS-defining events at initiation of antiretroviral therapy on long-term mortality of HIV/AIDS patients in Southwestern China: a retrospective cohort study

Objective

To evaluate the impact of AIDS-defining events (ADE) on long-term mortality of HIV positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), a retrospective HIV/AIDS treatment cohort study performed in Southwestern China.

Methods

The retrospective cohort was conducted among 6757 HIV/AIDS patients on ART (2NRTIs + 1NNRTI, 2NRTIs + 1PI and Single or two drugs) recruited in Guigang city, Guangxi, China, from January 2004 to December 2018. Participants were divided into ADE and non-ADE groups, and were followed-up every six months to observe treatment outcomes. Comparison of mortality between groups was performed using the log-rank test and Kaplan–Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to explore the risk factors of mortality. 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance confounding factors and adjust the mortality risk.

Results

Of 6757 participants with 29,096.06 person-years of follow-up, 16.86% (1139/6757) belonged to ADE group while the others (83.14%) belonged to the non-ADE group. The most common cause of death by ADE was disseminated mycosis (31.65%), followed by recurrent severe bacterial pneumonia (28.48%), herpes zoster (17.72%), and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (8.86%). The mortality of the ADE group was significantly higher than that of the non-ADE group [3.45/100 person-years (95% CI 2.92–3.97) vs. 2.34/100 person-years (95% CI 2.15–2.52), P<0.001]. The death risk of the ADE group was also higher than that of the non- ADE group [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.291, 95% CI 1.061–1.571, P = 0.011], which was confirmed by PSM analysis (aHR = 1.581, 95% CI 1.192–2.099, P = 0.002). Cox analysis indicated that ADE, older age, male gender, previous non-use of cotrimoxazole, advanced WHO clinical stage, and low baseline CD4⁺ cell count were the risk factors for death.

Conclusions

Even on ART, the mortality risk of HIV positive individuals with ADE was higher than those without ADE. Active testing, earlier diagnosis, and timely therapy with ART may reduce the death risk of ADE.

Risk factors for loss to follow-up from antiretroviral therapy programmes in low-income and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates from antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are high, leading to poor treatment outcomes and onward transmission of HIV. Knowledge of risk factors is required to address LTFU. In this systematic review, risk factors for LTFU are identified and meta-analyses performed.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Psycinfo and Cochrane were searched for studies that report on potential risk factors for LTFU in adults who initiated ART in LMICs. Meta-analysis was performed for risk factors evaluated by at least five studies. Pooled effect estimates and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using random effect models with inverse variance weights. Risk of bias was assessed and sensitivity analyses performed.

RESULTS

Eighty studies were included describing a total of 1 605 320 patients of which 87.4% from sub-Saharan Africa. The following determinants were significantly associated with an increased risk of LTFU in meta-analysis: male sex, older age, being single, unemployment, lower educational status, advanced WHO stage, low weight, worse functional status, poor adherence, nondisclosure, not receiving cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy when indicated, receiving care at secondary level and more recent year of initiation. No association was seen for CD4 cell count, tuberculosis at baseline, regimen, and geographical setting.

CONCLUSION

There are several sociodemographic, clinical, patient behaviour, treatment-related and system level risk factors for LTFU from ART programs. Knowledge of risk factors should be used to better target retention interventions and develop tools to identify high-risk patients.

HIV Epidemiology and Prevention in Southwestern China: Trends from 1996-2017

The aim of this review is to describe long-term HIV epidemiology and prevention trends in Guangxi, a provincial-level region located along a major drug trafficking corridor in southwestern China. Between 1996 and 2006, HIV transmission in Guangxi was primarily fueled by Injection Drug Use (IDU). Since 2006, heterosexual sex has become the dominant mode of HIV transmission, followed by drug injection. Moreover, older, heterosexual adults appear to be at increased risk for HIV. The vast majority of new HIV cases are attributed to local HIV subtypes already circulating within Guangxi (93%), though imported subtypes are associated with younger age groups. Since 2011, HIV incidence in Guangxi has stabilized, due in part to HIV prevention efforts that include expanded HIV testing, antiretroviral treatment, and other intervention measures. Between 1996 and 2017, Guangxi, China experienced dramatic changes in the primary HIV transmission mode and at-risk age group. Due in part to local and National AIDS control and prevention campaigns, HIV incidence trends in Guangxi no longer appear to be increasing.

Nationwide Cohort Study of Antiretroviral Therapy Timing: Treatment Dropout and Virological Failure in China, 2011-2015

Background

People living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) are still being diagnosed late, rendering the benefits of "early" antiretroviral therapy (ART) unattainable. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the benefits of "immediate" ART.

Methods

A nationwide cohort of PLWH in China who initiated ART January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2014 and had baseline CD4 results >200 cells/μL were censored at 12 months, dropout, or death, whichever came first. Treatment dropout and virological failure (viral load ≥400 copies/mL) were measured. Determinants were assessed by Cox and log-binomial regression.

Results

The cohort included 123605 PLWH. The ≤30 days group had a significantly lower treatment dropout rate of 6.72%, compared to 8.91% for the 91-365 days group and to 12.64% for the >365 days group. The ≤30 days group also had a significantly lower virological failure rate of 5.45% (31-90 days: 7.39%; 91-365 days: 9.64%; >365 days: 12.67%). Greater risk of dropout (91-365 days: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.25-1.42; >365 days: aHR = 1.55, CI = 1.47-1.54), and virological failure (31-90 days: adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 1.35, CI = 1.26-1.45; 91-365 days: aRR = 1.66, CI = 1.55-1.78; >365 days: aRR = 1.85, CI = 1.74-1.97) were observed for those who delayed treatment.

Conclusions

ART within 30 days of HIV diagnosis was associated with significantly reduced risk of treatment failure, highlighting the need to implement test-and-immediately-treat policies.

Coverage and adherence of antiretroviral therapy among Chinese HIV-positive men who have sex with men with high CD4 counts in the era of 'Treat all'

OBJECTIVES

HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) with CD4 cell counts> 350 cells/mm³ in China recently became eligible for free antiretroviral therapy (ART) due to updated national guidelines. This study aimed to investigate ART coverage and adherence among a large sample of HIV-positive MSM in China.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Chengdu and Hangzhou, China, from February to November 2016. Participants were 277 MSM who had received a confirmatory HIV diagnosis and had CD4 levels of> 350 cells/mm³ . Trained staff of collaborating non-governmental organizations contacted all HIV-positive MSM listed in their service records and invited them to join the study. The ART initiation, ART adherence and interactions between healthcare professionals and the patients were assessed.

RESULTS

ART coverage was 60.3%. Among those who were on ART (n = 167), no participants reported missing any doses in the last four days, but 25.7% reported non-compliance to either ART dosing schedule or dosage instructions. After adjusting for background variables and perceived eligibility for ART, two variables were significant factors of higher ART coverage: (i) receiving a recommendation from healthcare professionals for immediate ART initiation and (ii) perceiving having received an adequate explanation of potential harms of ART. Being prescribed> 3 pills per dose and not having a temporary resident permit were associated with non-compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant efforts are needed to increase ART coverage among HIV-positive MSM with high CD4 counts in China. Although prevalence of missing doses was low, non-compliance to dosing schedule/instructions should not be neglected. Interactions between healthcare professionals and MSMs play an important role in facilitating ART initiation.

Prediction of CD4+ Cells Counts in HIV/AIDS Patients based on Sets and Probability Theories

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have developed methodologies for predicting the number of CD4+ cells from the total leukocyte and lymphocytes count based on mathematical methodologies, obtaining percentages of effectiveness prediction higher than 90% with a value of less than 5000 leukocytes.

OBJECTIVE

To improve the methodology probabilities prediction in 5000-9000 leukocytes ranges.

METHOD

from sets A, B, C and D defined in a previous study, and based on CD4+ prediction established on the total number of leukocytes and lymphocytes, induction was performed using data from 10 patients with HIV, redefining the sets A and C that describe the lymphocytes behavior relative to leukocytes. Subsequently, we evaluated with previous research prediction probabilities parameters from a sample of 100 patients, calculating the belonging probability to each sample and organized in predetermined ranges leukocytes, of each of the sets defined, their unions and intersections. Then the same procedure was performed with the new sets and the probability values obtained with the refined method were compared with respect to previously defined, by measures of sensitivity (SENS) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) for each range.

RESULTS

probabilities with values greater than 0.83 were found in five of the nine ranges inside the new sets. The probability for the set A∪C increased from 0.06 to 0.18 which means increases between 0.06 and 0.09 for the intersection (A∪C) ∩ (B∪D), making evident the prediction improvement with new sets defined.

CONCLUSION

The results show that the new defined sets achieved a higher percentage of effectiveness to predict the CD4+ value cells, which represents a useful tool that can be proposed as a substitute for clinical values obtained by the flow cytometry.

An optimal BMI range associated with a lower risk of mortality among HIV-infected adults initiating antiretroviral therapy in Guangxi, China

Previous studies investigating HIV-infected patients suggested a direct link between underweight and the mortality rate of AIDS. However, there was a lack of evidence showing the optimal range of initial body mass index (BMI) patients maintain during antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to evaluate associations of the BMI values pre-ART and during the entire ART duration with mortality among HIV-positive individuals. In total, 5101 HIV/AIDS patients, including 1439 (28.2%) underweight, 3047 (59.7%) normal-weight, 548 (10.7%) overweight and 67 (1.3%) obese patients, were included in this cohort. The cumulative mortality of underweight, normal-weight, and overweight were 2.4/100 person-years (95% CI 1.9–2.9), 1.1/100 person-years (95% CI 0.9–1.3), and 0.5/100 person-years (95% CI 0.1–0.9), respectively. Cumulative mortality was lower in both the normal-weight and overweight populations than in the underweight population, with an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) of 0.5 (95% CI 0.4–0.7, p < 0.001) and 0.3 (95% CI 0.1–0.6, p = 0.002), respectively. Additionally, in the 1176 patients with available viral load data, there was significant difference between the underweight and normal-weight groups after adjustment for all factors, including viral load (p = 0.031). This result suggests that HIV-infected patients in Guangxi maintaining a BMI of 19–28 kg/m², especially 24–28 kg/m², have a reduced risk of death.

Intention to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people living with HIV in China under the scaling-up of ART: the role of healthcare workers' recommendations

BACKGROUND

The early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV (PLWH) benefits both individuals and societies. However, little is known about the intention to initiate ART among PLWH in China in the context of a scaling-up of treatment or how the recommendations of healthcare workers affect this intention.

METHODS

A total of 451 ART-naïve PLWH were recruited from communities in Guangzhou, China for this study. Data were collected by trained physicians via face-to-face interviews. Logistic regression models were fitted for the data analyses.

RESULTS

Of the participants, 93.8% were male, 72.7% were infected via homosexual behaviour and 68.5% reported an intention to initiate ART. In the latter category, 77.8, 41.9 and 20.0% of respondents received strong recommendations to initiate ART from healthcare workers at the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), community healthcare centres and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, depression, anxiety and strong recommendations from healthcare workers at the CDC and NGOs correlated significantly with ART intention. In the adjusted final hierarchical logistic regression model, the duration of infection [multivariate odds ratio (OR_m) = 0.30, p < 0.001], route of HIV infection (OR_m = 0.18, p < 0.01), infection status of the current spouse/regular sex partner (OR_m = 0.21-0.23, p < 0.01), anxiety (OR_m = 2.44-2.65, p < 0.05) and strong recommendations from CDC physicians (OR_m = 3.67, p < 0.01) or NGOs workers (OR_m = 3.67, p < 0.01) were independently associated with the ART intention, whereas a recommendation from a community healthcare centre physician was not.

CONCLUSIONS

In Guangzhou, the prevalence of ART intention was below the 90-90-90 targets. Further studies aimed at an in-depth understanding and encouragement of health care workers' perceptions regarding early ART are warranted as a means of scaling up new ART strategies.

Treatment effects of the differential first-line antiretroviral regimens among HIV/HBV coinfected patients in southwest China: an observational study

HIV with HBV co-infection can result in greater HIV-related immunosuppression, morbidity and mortality. Currently, there are few studies to evaluate direct treatment effects on mortality and attrition rates between first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) based-on tenofovir (TDF) and/or lamivudine (3TC) in a real-world setting. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate direct treatment effects of the first-line ART containing stavudine (d4T), azidothymidine (AZT) and TDF on death and attrition among HIV patients with HBV coinfection. A total of 3912 patients met study eligibility criteria. The overall mortality rate and attrition rate was 2.85 (95% CI: 2.55-3.16) and 8.87 (95% CI: 8.32-9.41) per 100 person-years, respectively. The ART containing TDF had a significantly lower risk of death [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.44-0.77] when compared to the ART containing d4T, but the risk of death was not significantly different when compared to the ART containing AZT (AHR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.69-1.20). Patients with HIV/HBV coinfection receiving the ART containing TDF had significantly lower risk rates of attrition compared to those receiving the ART containing d4T (AHR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.86) or AZT (AHR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.58-0.77). Compared with the ART containing d4T, the ART containing AZT was significant and not significant associated with a lower risk of death and attrition, respectively. The ART containing TDF had significant effects on both of death and attrition among HIV patients with HBV coinfection.

Treatment for HIV prevention study in southwestern areas of China

Background

China has ambitious to achieve significant reductions in HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality by adopting the World Health Organization's “Treat All” approach. Such a prevention strategy is needed future study on regional scale.

Methods

An observational cohort study of HIV epidemiology and treatment databases was used to study the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy on the transmission of HIV in serodiscordant couples in Guangxi of China.

Results

A total of 7713 couples were entered into the cohort study analysis which included 1885 couples in the treatment-naive cohort and 5828 couples in the treated cohort. During the follow-up of 18985.29 person-years from 2003 to 2014, the average incidence of HIV was 2.4 per 100 person-years (95% CI 2.1–2.6). HIV seroincidence rate was significantly higher among the treatment naive group (4.2 per 100 person-years, 3.7–4.8) compared with the on treatment group (1.6 per 100 person-years, 1.3–1.8). An overall 45% reduction in risk of HIV transmission among serodiscordant couple was associated with ART treatment (adjusted Hazard Ratio [HR] 0.55, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.44–0.69). Treatment prevention had significantly effectiveness for most baseline characteristics of index partners, such as for male, female, age above 25 years, education below high school, farmer, infected by heterosexual intercourse.

Conclusion

Treatment-as-prevention can be implemented in the real-world on a national or regional scale, but ART adherence and comprehensive harm reduction while implementing this strategy require further study.

Otorhinolaryngological profile and surgical intervention in patients with HIV/AIDS

Little is known about the diagnosis and surgical management of head and neck conditions in patients with HIV/AIDS. This study was conducted to characterize the otorhinolaryngological (ORL) profiles, surgical interventions and outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS. This retrospective study included patients with HIV/AIDS who underwent head and neck surgeries at You'an Hospital from November 2009 to February 2017. Patients' ages, ORL diagnoses and surgical interventions for all ORL surgeries were recorded. We identified 57 ORL surgeries in 52 patients during this time. The mean age of the patients was 37.7 ± 12.8 years, with a predominance of male patients (90.4%). The three most common surgical diagnoses were chronic tonsillitis (19.3%), followed by chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) (14.0%) and vocal polyps (8.8%). The three most common surgeries performed were tonsillectomy (19.3%), endoscopic sinus surgery + radiofrequency ablation of the inferior turbinate (14.0%) and vocal cord polypectomy (8.8%). No mortality occurred in the 30 days after surgery, but 2 patients (3.8%) developed post-operative surgical site infections (SSI). These findings provide information on ORL manifestations and surgical interventions in patients with HIV/AIDS and may assist in the achievement of the most appropriate treatments for this patient population.

Early antiretroviral therapy on reducing HIV transmission in China: strengths, weaknesses and next focus of the program

Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is a recommended public health approach for the prevention of HIV-1 transmission. In this cohort study, we included 13132 serodiscordant couples. ART was initiated for patients with CD4+ T cell counts less than 200 cells/uL, 350 cells/uL, and 500 cells/uL respectively. This divided the ART treated couples into three groups. Univariate and multivariate intention-to-treat analyses were performed to examine the association between the study groups. Early-ART initiation was associated with a 45% lower risk of partner infection than was late-ART initiation (AHR 0.55, 95% CI, 0.37–0.81). Mid-ART initiation was associated with a 39% lower risk of partner infection than was late-ART initiation (AHR 0.61, 95% CI, 0.48–0.78). However, the risk reduction between the early and mid-ART groups was not significant. Drug compliance (AHR 1.55, 95% CI 1.03–2.35) and increased baseline viral load (AHR 1.41, 95% CI 1.33–1.51) were associated with an increased risk of infections among partners in the treatment. Prevention of HIV transmission as a result of early ART initiation was feasible on national and regional scales; however, many factors, such as the motivation to commence ART, adherence, and attrition, may affect the impact of this strategy in programmatic settings.