Modelled responses of the Kalahari Desert to 21st century climate and land use change

Deterioration risk of dryland earthen heritage sites facing future climatic uncertainty

Uncertainties over future climatic conditions pose significant challenges when selecting appropriate conservation strategies for heritage sites. Choosing effective strategies is especially important for earthen heritage sites located in dryland regions, as many are experiencing rapid environmentally-driven deterioration. We use a newly developed cellular automaton model (ViSTA-HD), to evaluate the environmental deterioration risk, over a 100-year period, under a range of potential climate and conservation scenarios. Results show increased wind velocities could substantially increase the overall deterioration risk, implying the need for wind-reducing conservation strategies. In contrast, predicted increases in rainfall are not likely to increase the overall deterioration risk, despite greater risk of rain-driven deterioration features. Of the four conservation strategies tested in our model, deterioration risk under all climatic scenarios was best reduced by increasing the coverage of natural, randomly-distributed vegetation to 80%. We suggest this approach could be an appropriate long-term conservation strategy for other earthen sites in dryland regions.

Hot droughts compromise interannual survival across all group sizes in a cooperatively breeding bird

Climate change is affecting animal populations around the world and one relatively unexplored aspect of species vulnerability is whether and to what extent responses to environmental stressors might be mitigated by variation in group size in social species. We used a 15-year data set for a cooperatively breeding bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to determine the impact of temperature, rainfall and group size on body mass change and interannual survival in both juveniles and adults. Hot and dry conditions were associated with reduced juvenile growth, mass loss in adults and compromised survival between years in both juveniles (86% reduction in interannual survival) and adults (60% reduction in interannual survival). Individuals across all group sizes experienced similar effects of climatic conditions. Larger group sizes may not buffer individual group members against the impacts of hot and dry conditions, which are expected to increase in frequency and severity in future.