1
|
Gusain A, Mohanty MP, Ghosh S, Chatterjee C, Karmakar S. Capturing transformation of flood hazard over a large River Basin under changing climate using a top-down approach. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 726:138600. [PMID: 32305771 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2020] [Revised: 03/31/2020] [Accepted: 04/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Existing flood modeling studies over coastal catchments involving different combinations of model chain setup imparting complex information fails to entail the needs of policy or decision-makers. Thus, a comprehensive framework that pertains to the requirements of practitioners and provides more perspicuous flood hazard information is required. In this paper, a novel approach translating complex flood hazard information in the form of decision priority maps derived using a rational combination of models (physical and statistical) is elucidated at the finest administrative scale. The proposed methodology is illustrated over a highly flood-prone deltaic region in Mahanadi River Basin, India, to characterize impacts of climate change for a 1:100 years return period flood event under future conditions (2026-2055). The modeled flood events are further analyzed to capture the transformation dynamics of flood hazard classes (FHCs) in near-future, for prioritizing areas with greater hazard potential. Interestingly, the results capture a high transformation characteristic from low to high FHCs in agriculture-dominated areas, which are significantly greater than the areas experiencing flood hazard reduction. The results show a significant increase of 12.5% and 27.35% in areas with high FHCs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, a notable climate change response is indicated under both climate change scenarios, with approximately 22% (RCP4.5) and 25% (RCP8.5) in villages showing a drastic increment in flood hazard magnitude. The results thus highlight the importance of identifying and prioritizing the areas for flood adaptation where a relative change in flood hazard potential is higher due to climate change. Therefore, we conclude that this study can provide an insight into the implication of new approaches for effective communication of flood information by bridging the gaps between scientific communities and decision-makers in appraisal for better flood adaptation measures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A Gusain
- Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India
| | - M P Mohanty
- Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India
| | - S Ghosh
- Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India; Interdisciplinary Programme in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India; Centre for Urban Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India
| | - C Chatterjee
- Department of Agricultural and Food Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal 721302, India
| | - S Karmakar
- Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India; Interdisciplinary Programme in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India; Centre for Urban Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400076, India.
| |
Collapse
|