Drivers of demographic decline across the annual cycle of a threatened migratory bird

Substituting space for time: Bird responses to forest loss in space provide a general picture of responses over time

The practice of space-for-time substitution assumes that the responses of species or communities to land-use change over space represents how they will respond to that same change over time. Space-for-time substitution is commonly used in both ecology and conservation, but whether the assumption produces reliable insights remains inconclusive. Here, we tested space-for-time substitution using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Global Forest Change (GFC) to compare the effects of landscape-scale forest cover on bird richness and abundance over time and space, for 25 space-time comparisons. Each comparison consisted of a landscape that experienced at least 20% forest loss over 19 years (temporal site) and a set of 15-19 landscapes (spatial sites) that represented the same forest cover gradient over space in 2019 as experienced over time in their corresponding temporal site. Across the 25 comparisons, the observed responses of forest and open-habitat birds to forest cover over time generally aligned with their responses to forest cover over space, but with comparatively higher variability in the magnitude and direction of effect across the 25 temporal slopes than across the 25 spatial slopes. On average, the mean differences between the spatial and temporal slopes across the 25 space-time comparisons frequently overlapped with zero, suggesting that the spatial slopes are generally informative of the temporal slopes. However, we observed high variability around these mean differences, indicating that a single spatial slope is not strongly predictive of its corresponding temporal slope. We suggest that our results may be explained by annual variability in other relevant environmental factors that combine to produce complex effects on population abundances over time that are not easily captured by snapshots in space. While not being a 1:1 proxy, measuring bird responses to changes in habitat amount in space provides an idea on how birds might be expected to eventually equilibrate to similar changes in habitat amount over time. Further, analyses such as this could be potentially used to screen for cases of regional space-time mismatches where population-limiting factors other than habitat could be playing a more important role in the population trends observed there.

Low-coverage whole genome sequencing for highly accurate population assignment: Mapping migratory connectivity in the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla)

Understanding the geographic linkages among populations across the annual cycle is an essential component for understanding the ecology and evolution of migratory species and for facilitating their effective conservation. While genetic markers have been widely applied to describe migratory connections, the rapid development of new sequencing methods, such as low-coverage whole genome sequencing (lcWGS), provides new opportunities for improved estimates of migratory connectivity. Here, we use lcWGS to identify fine-scale population structure in a widespread songbird, the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla), and accurately assign individuals to genetically distinct breeding populations. Assignment of individuals from the nonbreeding range reveals population-specific patterns of varying migratory connectivity. By combining migratory connectivity results with demographic analysis of population abundance and trends, we consider full annual cycle conservation strategies for preserving numbers of individuals and genetic diversity. Notably, we highlight the importance of the Northern Temperate-Greater Antilles migratory population as containing the largest proportion of individuals in the species. Finally, we highlight valuable considerations for other population assignment studies aimed at using lcWGS. Our results have broad implications for improving our understanding of the ecology and evolution of migratory species through conservation genomics approaches.

Migratory Movements and Home Ranges of Geographically Distinct Wintering Populations of a Soaring Bird

Migratory soaring birds exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their circannual movements. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain how different winter environments affect the circannual movement patterns of migratory soaring birds. Here, we investigated annual movement strategies of American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos (hereafter, pelican) from two geographically distinct wintering grounds in the Southern and Northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We hypothesized that hourly movement distance and home range size of a soaring bird would differ between different geographic regions because of different thermals and wind conditions and resource availability. We calculated average and maximum hourly movement distances and seasonal home ranges of GPS-tracking pelicans. We then evaluated the effects of hour of the day, seasons, two wintering regions in the Southern and Northern GOM, human footprint index, and relative pelican abundance from Christmas Bird Count data on pelican hourly movement distances and seasonal home ranges using linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models. American white pelicans moved at greatest hourly distance near 1200 h at breeding grounds and during spring and autumn migrations. Both wintering populations in the Northern and Southern GOM exhibited similar hourly movement distances and seasonal home ranges at the shared breeding grounds and during spring and autumn migrations. However, pelicans wintering in the Southern GOM showed shorter hourly movement distances and smaller seasonal home ranges than those in the Northern GOM. Hourly movement distances and home ranges of pelicans increased with increasing human footprint index. Winter hourly movements and home ranges of pelicans differed between the Northern and Southern GOM; however, the winter difference in pelican movements did not carry over to the shared breeding grounds during summers. Therefore, exogenous factors may be the primary drivers to shape the flying patterns of migratory soaring birds.

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species-season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

Quantifying phenology and migratory behaviours of hummingbirds using single-site dynamics and mark-detection analyses

Nuanced understanding of seasonal movements of partially migratory birds is paramount to species and habitat conservation. Using nascent statistical methods, we identified migratory strategies of birds outfitted with radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags detected at RFID feeders in two sites in California, USA. We quantified proportions of migrants and residents and the seasonal phenology for each movement strategy in Allen's and Anna's hummingbirds; we also validated our methodology by fitting our model to obligate migratory black-chinned hummingbirds. Allen's and Anna's hummingbirds exhibited characteristics of facultative migratory behaviour. We also quantified apparent annual survival for each migratory strategy and found that residents had significantly higher probabilities of apparent survival. Low survival estimates for migrants suggest that a high proportion of birds in the migrant group permanently emigrated from our study sites. Considered together, our analyses suggest that hummingbirds in both northern and southern California sites partake in diverse and highly plastic migratory behaviours. Our assessment elucidates the dynamics underlying idiosyncratic migratory behaviours of two species of hummingbirds, in addition to describing a framework for similar assessments of migratory behaviours using the multi-state open robust design with state uncertainty model and single-site dynamics.

Demographic responses to climate-driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.

Geographic and Temporal Variation in Annual Survival of a Declining Neotropical Migrant Hummingbird (Selasphorus rufus) Under Varying Fire, Snowpack, and Climatic Conditions

Rufous hummingbirds (Selasphorus rufus) have shown consistent declines in abundance since 1970, with an acceleration in this trend starting in the mid-2000s. Demographic data is needed to isolate possible drivers. We employ mark-recapture data to calculate sex-specific adult apparent annual survival, accounting for residency probability, within the coastal and interior regions of British Columbia, Canada between 1998 and 2017. For the coastal region, we also examine associations between apparent survival and a suite of migratory factors: the amount of recently and historically burned flyway habitat, fall moisture availability in the alpine (snowpack), and a broad-scale climate index (SOI), under the assumption that these factors are associated with food availability during a critical period of the annual cycle. We find no trend in adult apparent survival over the 20-year period, implicating changes in recruitment rather than adult survival as driving the declining trend in abundance. Interior birds of both sexes showed lower residency probability than coastal individuals suggesting interior sites captured more late northbound individuals or more early southbound individuals within the breeding period. Adult apparent annual survival was not correlated with any of the migratory variables we examined. Our findings suggest a need to focus on juvenile recruitment as a possible driver of the long-term declines in Rufous Hummingbirds. Future studies should consider both potential threats to productivity on the breeding grounds and to juvenile survival on the non-breeding grounds.

Living on the edge: genetic structure and geographic distribution in the threatened Markham's Storm-Petrel (Hydrobates markhami)

Migratory birds are threatened by habitat loss and degradation, illegal killings, ineffective conservation policies, knowledge gaps and climate change. These threats are particularly troubling in the Procellariiformes (Aves), one of the most endangered bird groups. For “storm-petrels”, their cryptic breeding behavior, asynchrony between populations, and light pollution pose additional threats that contribute to increased mortality.Markham’s Storm-Petrel (Hydrobates markhami), a poorly known migratory species, is a pelagic bird that breeds in dispersed colonies in the Sechura and Atacama Deserts, with asynchronous reproduction between colonies, and is highly affected by artificial lights. Considering its complex conservation scenario and singular breeding, we expected to find narrow habitat distribution conditions, strong geographic genetic structure, and spatially differentiation related to human population activities (e.g., light pollution) and the climate global change. To evaluate these predictions, we analyzed the phylogeography, current and future potential distribution based on mitochondrial gene ND1 and geographic records.The phylogeographic analyses revealed three well-supported clades (i.e., Paracas, Arica, and Salar Grande), and the geographical distribution modeled using an intrinsic conditional model (iCAR) suggests a positive relationship with the mean temperature of the wettest quarter and of the driest quarter, solar radiation, and anthropogenic disturbance. The future predictions under moderate and severe scenarios of global change indicated a drastic distribution area reduction, especially in the southern zone around Tarapacá and Antofagasta in Chile. These suggest a potential loss of unique genetic diversity and the need for conservation actions particularly focused at the edges of the H. markhami distribution.

Community modeling reveals the importance of elevation and land cover in shaping migratory bird abundance in the Andes

The tropical Andes are characterized by extreme topographic and climatic complexity, which has likely contributed to their outstanding current species diversity, composed of many range-restricted species. However, little is known about how the distribution and abundance of highly mobile organisms, like long-distance migratory birds, varies across different land covers, elevations, and climatic conditions within the Andes. We conducted 1,606 distance-sampling point counts across the Colombian Andes, spanning elevations from 253 to 3,708 m, a range of precipitation regimes and representative land covers. We then employed a novel application of a multispecies hierarchical modeling approach to evaluate how elevation, local land cover, aboveground woody biomass, cloud cover, precipitation, and seasonality in precipitation shape the abundance of the migratory land bird community in the Andes. We detected 1,824 individuals of 29 species of migratory land birds, six of which were considered incidental in our study region. We modeled the abundance of the remaining 23 species, while considering observer and time of day effects on detectability. We found that both elevation and land cover had an overriding influence on the abundance of migratory species across the Andes, with strong evidence for a mid-elevation peak in abundance, and species-specific responses to both variables. As a community, migratory birds had the highest mean abundance in shade coffee plantations, secondary forest, and mature forest. Aboveground woody biomass did not affect the abundance of all species as a group, but a few showed strong responses to this variable. Contrary to predictions of a positive correlation between abundance and precipitation, we found no evidence for community-level responses to precipitation, aside for a weak tendency for birds to select areas with intermediate levels of precipitation. This novel use of a multispecies model sheds new light on the mechanisms shaping the winter distribution of migratory birds and highlights the importance of elevation and land cover types over climatic variables in the context of the Colombian Andes.

Revealing migratory path, important stopovers and non-breeding areas of a boreal songbird in steep decline

The Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi) is a steeply declining aerial insectivore with one of the longest migrations of any North American passerine. We deployed light-level geolocators and archival GPS tags on breeders in boreal Alaska to determine migratory routes, important stopovers and non-breeding locations. Data from 16 individuals revealed a median 23,555 km annual journey (range: 19,387, 27,292 km) over 95 days (range: 83, 139 days) with wintering occurring in three regions of South America (NW Colombia/Ecuador, central Peru and W Brazil/S Peru). We developed a new method to identify “Important Stopovers” by quantifying intensity of use (a function of bird numbers and stop durations) along migratory routes. We identified 13 Important Stopovers that accounted for ~66% of the annual migratory period, suggestive of refueling activities. Some sites coincided with key areas previously identified for other Neotropical-Nearctic migrants. Percent land “protected” at Important Stopovers, as defined by IUCN, ranged from 3.8% to 49.3% (mean [95% CI]: 17.3% [9.6, 25.0]). Total migration speed did not differ by season (median: 255 km day-1, range: 182, 295km day-1), despite greater spring travel distances. Birds with longer non-breeding periods, however, migrated north faster. Climate-driven mismatches in migratory timing may be less of a concern for western than for eastern flycatcher populations, given recent con-generic analyses (C. sordidulus, C. virens). However, accelerated high-latitude changes, may nonetheless impact boreal breeders.

Opportunities for the conservation of migratory birds to benefit threatened resident vertebrates in the Neotropics

Neotropical countries receive financing and effort from temperate nations to aid the conservation of migratory species that move between temperate and tropical regions. If allocated strategically, these resources could simultaneously contribute to other conservation initiatives. In this study, we use novel distribution maps to show how those resources could aid planning for the recovery of threatened resident vertebrates.

Using eBird‐based relative abundance estimates, we first identified areas with high richness of Neotropical migrant landbirds of conservation concern (23 species) during the stationary non‐breeding period. Within these areas, we then identified threatened species richness, projected forest loss and conducted a prioritization for 1,261 red‐listed vertebrates using Terrestrial Area‐of‐Habitat maps.

Richness for migrants was greatest along a corridor from the Yucatan peninsula south to the northern Andes but also included south‐west Mexico and Hispaniola. Protected areas account for 22% of this region while 21% is at risk of forest loss. Within this focal region for migrants, all four vertebrate groups showed hotspots of threatened species richness along the west and east Andean slopes. Taxa‐specific hotspots included montane areas of southern Mexico and central Guatemala (amphibians/reptiles) and the entire east slope of the Colombian East Andes (mammals).

Our prioritization highlighted several areas of importance for conservation due to high threatened species richness and projected forest loss including (a) the Pacific dry forests of south‐west Mexico, (b) montane regions of northern Central America and (c) the west Andean slope of Colombia and Ecuador. At a landscape scale in southern Colombia, we show how conservation efforts for six Neotropical migrants could benefit 56 threatened residents that share a similar elevational range.

Synthesis and applications. Funding and effort for migratory bird conservation also has potential to benefit threatened resident vertebrates in the Neotropics. Our study highlights how novel, high‐resolution information on species distributions and risk of forest loss can be integrated to identify priority areas for the two groups at regional and landscape scales. The approach and data can be further modified for more specific goals, such as within‐country initiatives.

Migration and non-breeding ecology of the Yellow-breasted Chat Icteria virens

Detailed information spanning the full annual cycle is lacking for most songbird populations. We examined breeding, migration, and non-breeding sites for the Yellow-breasted Chat (Icteria virens, chat). We deployed archival GPS tags and light-level geolocators on breeding chats in British Columbia and light-level geolocators in California from 2013 to 2017 to determine migration routes and non-breeding sites. We examined whether chats overwintered in protected areas and characterized the percent of land cover within 1 km. We used a combination of genetics and stable hydrogen isotopes from feathers collected on non-breeding chats in Nayarit, Mexico (2017-2019) and migrating chats in Chiapas, Mexico (2018) and Veracruz, Mexico (2014-2015) to determine subspecies and infer breeding location. Endangered chats in British Columbia followed the Pacific Flyway and spent the non-breeding period in Sinaloa and Nayarit, Mexico. Two out of five chats spent the non-breeding period in protected areas, and the most common landcover type used was tropical or subtropical broadleaf deciduous forest. We found no mixing of eastern and western chats in our Mexico sites, suggesting strong migratory connectivity at the subspecies level. Western chats likely originating from multiple breeding latitudes spent the non-breeding period in Nayarit. Eastern Yellow-breasted Chats likely breeding across various latitudes migrated through Veracruz and Chiapas. Our results provide precise migration routes and non-breeding locations, and describe habitat cover types for chats, notably an endangered population in British Columbia, which may be valuable for habitat protection and conservation efforts.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10336-021-01931-8.

Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

To halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks on future habitat for olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, in Canada’s western boreal forest. To predict the occurrence of olive-sided flycatcher we developed a suite of habitat suitability models using point count surveys (1997–2011) spatially- and temporally-matched with forest inventory data. Flycatcher occurrence was positively associated with small (∼10 ha) 10- to 20-year-old clearcuts, and with 10–100% tree mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, but we found no association with roads or distance to water. We used the parameter estimates from the best-fit habitat suitability models to inform spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models to project change in habitat availability from 2020 to 2050 under six alternative scenarios (three management × two fire alternatives). The simulation models projected that the cumulative effects of land use conversion, forest harvesting, and fire will reduce the area of olive-sided flycatcher habitat by 16–18% under Business As Usual management scenarios and by 11–13% under scenarios that include protection of 30% of the land base. Scenarios limiting the size of all clearcuts to ≤10 ha resulted in a median habitat loss of 4–6%, but projections were highly variable. Under all three management alternatives, a 50% increase in fire frequency (expected due to climate change) exacerbated habitat loss. The projected losses of habitat in western boreal forest, even with an increase in protected areas, imply that reversing the ongoing population declines of olive-sided flycatcher and other migratory birds will require attention to forest management beyond protected areas. Further work should examine the effects of multiple stressors on the demographic mechanisms driving change in aerial insectivore populations, including stressors on the wintering grounds in South America, and should aim to adapt the design of protected areas and forest management policies to projected climate-driven increases in the size and frequency of wildfires.

Migratory connectivity then and now: a northward shift in breeding origins of a long-distance migratory bird wintering in the tropics

Temporal variation in the connectivity of populations of migratory animals has not been widely documented, despite having important repercussions for population ecology and conservation. Because the long-distance movements of migratory animals link ecologically distinct and geographically distant areas of the world, changes in the abundance and migratory patterns of species may reflect differential drivers of demographic trends acting over various spatial scales. Using stable hydrogen isotope analyses (δ²H) of feathers from historical museum specimens and contemporary samples obtained in the field, we provide evidence for an approximately 600 km northward shift over 45 years in the breeding origin of a species of songbird of major conservation concern (blackpoll warbler, Setophaga striata) wintering in the foothills of the eastern Andes of Colombia. Our finding mirrors predictions of range shifts for boreal-breeding species under warming climate scenarios and habitat loss in the temperate zone, and underscores likely drivers of widespread declines in populations of migratory birds. Our work also highlights the value of natural history collections to document the effects of global change on biodiversity.

Migration ecology of western gray catbirds

BACKGROUND

For many songbirds in North America, we lack movement details about the full annual cycle, notably outside the breeding season. Understanding how populations are linked spatially between breeding and overwintering periods (migratory connectivity) is crucial to songbird conservation and management. We assessed migratory connectivity for 2 breeding populations of Gray Catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis) west of and within the Rocky Mountains by determining migration routes, stopover sites, and overwintering locations. Additionally, we compared apparent annual survivorship for both populations.

METHODS

We deployed 39 archival light-level geolocators and 21 Global Positioning System (GPS) tags on catbirds in the South Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada, and 32 geolocators and 52 GPS tags in the Bitterroot River Valley, Montana, USA. These devices allowed us to determine migration routes, stopover sites, overwintering locations, and migratory connectivity. Migratory connectivity was quantified using Mantel's correlation. We used mark-recapture of colour banded catbirds in both sites to estimate apparent annual survivorship.

RESULTS

We retrieved 6 geolocators and 19 GPS tags with usable data. Gray Catbirds from both populations passed through the Rocky Mountains eastward before heading south towards their overwintering locations in northeastern Mexico and Texas. Stopover sites during fall migration occurred primarily in Montana, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Overwintering locations spanned Texas and 5 states in northeastern Mexico. Individual catbirds used up to 4 distinct sites during the overwintering period. Catbirds separated by almost 500 km during the breeding season overlapped during the non-breeding season, suggesting weak migratory connectivity among western populations (Mantel's correlation = 0.013, P-value = 0.41). Catbird apparent annual survivorship estimates were higher in British Columbia (0.61 ± 0.06 females; 0.64 ± 0.05 males) than in Montana (0.34 ± 0.05 females; 0.43 ± 0.04 males), though the main driver of these differences remain unclear.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide high precision geographic details during the breeding, migration, and overwintering phases of the annual cycle for western Gray Catbirds. Notably, we found that western catbirds followed the Central Flyway as opposed to the Pacific Flyway. We document that catbirds used multiple sites over winter, contrary to the popular belief that this phase of the annual cycle is stationary for most songbirds.

Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action

Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abundance of migratory landbirds have driven international calls for action, but actions that could feasibly contribute to population recovery have yet to be identified. Targeted actions to improve conditions on poor-quality sites could be an effective approach, but only if local conditions consistently influence local demography and hence population trends. Using long-term measures of abundance and demography of breeding birds at survey sites across Europe, we show that co-occurring species with differing migration behaviours have similar directions of local population trends and magnitudes of productivity, but not survival rates. Targeted actions to boost local productivity within Europe, alongside large-scale (non-targeted) environmental protection across non-breeding ranges, could therefore help address the urgent need to halt migrant landbird declines. Such demographic routes to recovery are likely to be increasingly needed to address global wildlife declines.

Linking landscape-scale conservation to regional and continental outcomes for a migratory species

Land-use intensification on arable land is expanding and posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. We develop methods to link funding for avian breeding habitat conservation and management at landscape scales to equilibrium abundance of a migratory species at the continental scale. We apply this novel approach to a harvested bird valued by birders and hunters in North America, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta), a species well below its population goal. Based on empirical observations from 2007–2016, habitat conservation investments for waterfowl cost $313 M and affected <2% of the pintail’s primary breeding area in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada. Realistic scenarios for harvest and habitat conservation costing an estimated $588 M (2016 USD) led to predicted pintail population sizes <3 M when assuming average parameter values. Accounting for parameter uncertainty, converting 70–100% of these croplands to idle grassland (cost: $35.7B–50B) is required to achieve the continental population goal of 4 M individuals under the current harvest policy. Using our work as a starting point, we propose continued development of modeling approaches that link conservation funding, habitat delivery, and population response to better integrate conservation efforts and harvest management of economically important migratory species.

Full-annual demography and seasonal cycles in a resident vertebrate

Wildlife demography is typically studied at a single point in time within a year when species, often during the reproductive season, are more active and therefore easier to find. However, this provides only a low-resolution glimpse into demographic temporal patterns over time and may hamper a more complete understanding of the population dynamics of a species over the full annual cycle. The full annual cycle is often influenced by environmental seasonality, which induces a cyclic behavior in many species. However, cycles have rarely been explicitly included in models for demographic parameters, and most information on full annual cycle demography is restricted to migratory species. Here we used a high-resolution capture-recapture study of a resident tropical lizard to assess the full intra-annual demography and within-year periodicity in survival, temporary emigration and recapture probabilities. We found important variation over the annual cycle and up to 92% of the total monthly variation explained by cycles. Fine-scale demographic studies and assessments on the importance of cycles within parameters may be a powerful way to achieve a better understanding of population persistence over time.

Integrating broad-scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence-environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi-site count and capture-recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixture of first-year survival and immigration was the largest contributor to variation in population change; however, this parameter was estimated imprecisely, and its importance likely reflects, in part, differences in spatio-temporal distribution of samples between count and capture-recapture data sets. Our modeling approach represents a novel and flexible framework for linking broad-scale multi-site monitoring data sets. Our results highlight both the potential of the approach for extension to additional species and systems, as well as needs for additional data and/or model development.

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.