Tidal and hydrological periodicities of seismicity reveal new risk scenarios at Campi Flegrei caldera

Principal component analysis on twenty years (2000-2020) of geochemical and geophysical observations at Campi Flegrei active caldera

Campi Flegrei (CF) is an active and densely populated caldera in Southern Italy, which has manifested signs of significant unrest in the last 50 years. Due to the high volcanic risk, monitoring networks of the most sensitive unrest indicators have been implemented and improved over time. Precious database constituted by geophysical and geochemical data allowed the study of the caldera unrest phases. In this paper we retrace the caldera history in the time span 2000-2020 by analyzing displacement, seismicity and geochemical time series in a unified framework. To this end, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was firstly applied only on geochemical data because of their compositional nature. The retrieved first three components were successively analyzed via PCA together with the geophysical and thermodynamical variables. Our results suggest that three independent processes relay on geochemical observations: a heating/pressurizing of the hydrothermal system, a process related to magmatic fluids injection at the hydrothermal system roots, and third process probably connected with a deeper magmatic dynamic. The actual volcano alert state seems mainly linked to the variation of the hydrothermal system activity. Our approach made it possible to explore the interrelation among observations of different nature highlighting the importance of the relative driving processes over time.

One-Year Seismic Survey of the Tectonic CO2-Rich Site of Mefite d'Ansanto (Southern Italy): Preliminary Insights in the Seismic Noise Wavefield

A passive seismic experiment is carried out at the non-volcanic highly degassing site of Mefite d'Ansanto located at the northern tip of the Irpinia region (southern Italy), where the 1980 M_S 6.9 destructive earthquake occurred. Between 2020 and 2021, background seismic noise was recorded by deploying a broadband seismic station and a seismic array composed of seven 1 Hz three-component sensors. Using two different array configurations, we were allowed to explore in detail the 1-20 Hz frequency band of the seismic noise wavefield as well as Rayleigh wave phase velocities in the 400-800 m/s range. Spectral analyses and array techniques were applied to one year of data showing that the frequency content of the signal is very stable in time. High frequency peaks are likely linked to the emission source, whereas at low frequencies seismic noise is clearly correlated to meteorological parameters. The results of this study show that small aperture seismic arrays probe the subsurface of tectonic CO₂-rich emission areas and contribute to the understanding of the link between fluid circulation and seismogenesis in seismically active regions.

Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

Ongoing resurgence affects Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) via bradyseism, i.e. a series of ground deformation episodes accompanied by increases in shallow seismicity. In this study, we perform a mathematical analysis of the GPS and seismic data in the instrumental catalogs from 2000 to 2020, and a comparison of them to the preceding data from 1983 to 1999. We clearly identify and characterize two overlying trends, i.e. a decennial-like acceleration and cyclic oscillations with various periods. In particular, we show that all the signals have been accelerating since 2005, and 90–97% of their increase has occurred since 2011, 40–80% since 2018. Nevertheless, the seismic and ground deformation signals evolved differently—the seismic count increased faster than the GPS data since 2011, and even more so since 2015, growing faster than an exponential function The ground deformation has a linearized rate slope, i.e. acceleration, of 0.6 cm/yr2 and 0.3 cm/yr2 from 2000 to 2020, respectively for the vertical (RITE GPS) and the horizontal (ACAE GPS) components. In addition, all annual rates show alternating speed-ups and slow-downs, consistent between the signals. We find seven major rate maxima since 2000, one every 2.8–3.5 years, with secondary maxima at fractions of the intervals. A cycle with longer period of 6.5–9 years is also identified. Finally, we apply the probabilistic failure forecast method, a nonlinear regression that calculates the theoretical time limit of the signals going to infinity (interpreted here as a critical state potentially reached by the volcano), conditional on the continuation of the observed nonlinear accelerations. Since 2000, we perform a retrospective analysis of the temporal evolution of these forecasts which highlight the periods of more intense acceleration. The failure forecast method applied on the seismic count from 2001 to 2020 produces upper time limits of [0, 3, 11] years (corresponding to the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles, respectively), significantly shorter than those based on the GPS data, e.g. [0, 6, 21] years. Such estimates, only valid under the model assumption of continuation of the ongoing decennial-like acceleration, warn to keep the guard up on the future evolution of Campi Flegrei caldera.

Identifying the Fingerprint of a Volcano in the Background Seismic Noise from Machine Learning-Based Approach

This work is devoted to the analysis of the background seismic noise acquired at the volcanoes (Campi Flegrei caldera, Ischia island, and Vesuvius) belonging to the Neapolitan volcanic district (Italy), and at the Colima volcano (Mexico). Continuous seismic acquisition is a complex mixture of volcanic transients and persistent volcanic and/or hydrothermal tremor, anthropogenic/ambient noise, oceanic loading, and meteo-marine contributions. The analysis of the background noise in a stationary volcanic phase could facilitate the identification of relevant waveforms often masked by microseisms and ambient noise. To address this issue, our approach proposes a machine learning (ML) modeling to recognize the “fingerprint” of a specific volcano by analyzing the background seismic noise from the continuous seismic acquisition. Specifically, two ML models, namely multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural network were trained to recognize one volcano from another based on the acquisition noise. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the two models in recognizing the noisy background signal, with promising performance in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. These results suggest that persistent volcanic signals share the same source information, as well as transient events, revealing a common generation mechanism but in different regimes. Moreover, assessing the dynamic state of a volcano through its background noise and promptly identifying any anomalies, which may indicate a change in its dynamics, can be a practical tool for real-time monitoring.

Fluid migrations and volcanic earthquakes from depolarized ambient noise

Ambient noise polarizes inside fault zones, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of polarized noise on gas-bearing fluids migrating through stressed volcanic systems is unknown. Here we show that high polarization marks a transfer structure connecting the deforming centre of the caldera to open hydrothermal vents and extensional caldera-bounding faults during periods of low seismic release at Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy). Fluids pressurize the Campi Flegrei hydrothermal system, migrate, and increase stress before earthquakes. The loss of polarization (depolarization) of the transfer and extensional structures maps pressurized fluids, detecting fluid migrations after seismic sequences. After recent intense seismicity (December 2019-April 2020), the transfer structure appears sealed while fluids stored in the east caldera have moved further east. Our findings show that depolarized noise has the potential to monitor fluid migrations and earthquakes at stressed volcanoes quasi-instantaneously and with minimum processing.

Tracking the Endogenous Dynamics of the Solfatara Volcano (Campi Flegrei, Italy) through the Analysis of Ground Thermal Image Temperatures

In the last decades, thermal infrared ground-based cameras have become effective tools to detect significant spatio-temporal anomalies in the hydrothermal/volcanic environment, possibly linked to impending eruptions. In this paper, we analyzed the temperature time-series recorded by the ground-based Thermal Infrared Radiometer permanent network of INGV-OV, installed inside the Solfatara-Pisciarelli area, the most active fluid emission zones of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). We investigated the temperatures’ behavior in the interval 25 June 2016–29 May 2020, with the aim of tracking possible endogenous hydrothermal/volcanic sources. We performed the Independent Component Analysis, the time evolution estimation of the spectral power, the cross-correlation and the Changing Points’ detection. We compared the obtained patterns with the behavior of atmospheric temperature and pressure, of the time-series recorded by the thermal camera of Mt. Vesuvius, of the local seismicity moment rate and of the CO2 emission flux. We found an overall influence of exogenous, large scale atmospheric effect, which dominated in 2016–2017. Starting from 2018, a clear endogenous forcing overcame the atmospheric factor, and dominated strongly soil temperature variations until the end of the observations. This paper highlights the importance of monitoring and investigating the soil temperature in volcanic environments, as well as the atmospheric parameters.

Spectral and Informational Analysis of Temperature and Chemical Composition of Solfatara Fumaroles (Campi Flegrei, Italy)

Temperature and composition at fumaroles are controlled by several volcanic and exogenous processes that operate on various time-space scales. Here, we analyze fluctuations of temperature and chemical composition recorded at fumarolic vents in Solfatara (Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy) from December 1997 to December 2015, in order to better understand source(s) and driving processes. Applying the singular spectral analysis, we found that the trends explain the great part of the variance of the geochemical series but not of the temperature series. On the other hand, a common source, also shared by other geo-indicators (ground deformation, seismicity, hydrogeological and meteorological data), seems to be linked with the oscillatory structure of the investigated signals. The informational characteristics of temperature and geochemical compositions, analyzed by using the Fisher–Shannon method, appear to be a sort of fingerprint of the different periodic structure. In fact, the oscillatory components were characterized by a wide range of significant periodicities nearly equally powerful that show a higher degree of entropy, indicating that changes are influenced by overlapped processes occurring at different scales with a rather similar intensity. The present study represents an advancement in the understanding of the dominant driving mechanisms of volcanic signals at fumaroles that might be also valid for other volcanic areas.

Tracking the recent dynamics of Mt. Vesuvius from joint investigations of ground deformation, seismicity and geofluid circulation

We reconstruct the composite dynamics of Mt. Vesuvius volcano in the period 2012-2019 from the study of ground deformation, seismicity, and geofluid (groundwater and fumarolic fluids) circulation and recognize complex spatio-temporal variations in these observables at medium (years) and short (months) time-scales. We interpret the observed patterns as the combined effect of structural changes affecting the volcanic edifice and variations of the dynamics of the hydrothermal system. In particular, we identify a change in the activity state of Mt. Vesuvius. After the activity reached minimum levels in 2014, the centroid of the surface manifestations migrated towards the SE. Episodic variations of co-seismic and aseismic deformation and fluid release, if analysed separately, would likely have been interpreted as pseudo-random oscillations of the background geophysical and geochemical signals. When organised in a comprehensive, multiparametric fashion, they shed light on the evolution of the volcano in 4D (x,y,z, time) space. These inferences play a crucial role in the formulation of civil protection scenarios for Mt. Vesuvius, a high risk, densely urbanized volcanic area which has never experienced unrest episodes in the modern era of instrumental volcanology.

On the Rainfall Triggering of Phlegraean Fields Volcanic Tremors

We study whether the shallow volcanic seismic tremors related to the bradyseism observed at the Phlegraean Fields (Campi Flegrei, Pozzuoli, and Naples) from 2008 to 2020 by the Osservatorio Vesuviano could be partially triggered by local rainfall events. We use the daily rainfall record measured at the nearby Meteorological Observatory of San Marcellino in Naples and develop two empirical models to simulate the local seismicity starting from the hypothesized rainfall-water effect under different scenarios. We found statistically significant correlations between the volcanic tremors at the Phlegraean Fields and our rainfall model during years of low bradyseism. More specifically, we observe that large amounts and continuous periods of rainfall could trigger, from a few days to 1 or 2 weeks, seismic swarms with magnitudes up to M = 3. The results indicate that, on long timescales, the seismicity at the Phlegraean Fields is very sensitive to the endogenous pressure from the deep magmatic system causing the bradyseism, but meteoric water infiltration could play an important triggering effect on short timescales of days or weeks. Rainfall water likely penetrates deeply into the highly fractured and hot shallow-water-saturated subsurface that characterizes the region, reduces the strength and stiffness of the soil and, finally, boils when it mixes with the hot hydrothermal magmatic fluids migrating upward. The structural collapse of the saturated fractured soil and the mixing of the meteoric fluid with the hot deep fluids triggers the local seismic activity.

Pore Pressure Analysis for Distinguishing Earthquakes Induced by CO2 Injection from Natural Earthquakes

It is important to distinguish between natural earthquakes and those induced by CO2 injection at carbon capture and storage sites. For example, the 2004 Mw 6.8 Chuetsu earthquake occurred close to the Nagaoka CO2 storage site during gas injection, but we could not quantify whether the earthquake was due to CO2 injection or not. Here, changes in pore pressure during CO2 injection at the Nagaoka site were simulated and compared with estimated natural seasonal fluctuations in pore pressure due to rainfall and snowmelt, as well as estimated pore pressure increases related to remote earthquakes. Changes in pore pressure due to CO2 injection were clearly distinguished from those due to rainfall and snowmelt. The simulated local increase in pore pressure at the seismogenic fault area was much less than the seasonal fluctuations related to precipitation and increases caused by remote earthquakes, and the lateral extent of pore pressure increase was insufficient to influence seismogenic faults. We also demonstrated that pore pressure changes due to distant earthquakes are capable of triggering slip on seismogenic faults. The approach we developed could be used to distinguish natural from injection-induced earthquakes and will be useful for that purpose at other CO2 sequestration sites.

Some Investigations on a Possible Relationship between Ground Deformation and Seismic Activity at Campi Flegrei and Ischia Volcanic Areas (Southern Italy)

In the present paper, we analyse ground tilt and seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia Island, two volcanic areas located in the south of Italy. These areas have been well studied for many years from a petrological, volcanological and geophysical view point. Moreover, due to the high seismic and volcanic risk for the populations living there, they are continuously monitored by networks of geophysical and geochemical sensors. We summarize the most important results that we obtained so far, concerning the observations of relationships between seismic activity and ground tilt anomalies, focusing on the time interval 2015–2018. First, we present a detailed description of the tiltmeter and seismic networks in both the investigated areas, as well as their development and improvement over time that has enabled high quality data collection. From the joint analysis of the seismic and borehole tiltmeter signals, we often notice concurrence between tilt pattern variations and the occurrence of seismicity. Moreover, the major tilt anomalies appear to be linked with the rate and energy of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, as well as with exogenous phenomena like solid Earth tides and hydrological cycles. The analysis that we present has potential applicability to other volcanic systems. Our findings show how the joint use tilt and seismic data can contribute to better understanding of the dynamics of volcanoes.

First Identification of Periodic Degassing Rhythms in Three Mineral Springs of the East Eifel Volcanic Field (EEVF, Germany)

We present a geochemical dataset acquired during continual sampling over 7 months (bi-weekly) and 4 weeks (every 8 h) in the Neuwied Basin, a part of the East Eifel Volcanic Field (EEVF, Germany). We used a combination of geochemical, geophysical, and statistical methods to describe and identify potential causal processes underlying the correlations of degassing patterns of CO2, He, Rn, and tectonic processes in three investigated mineral springs (Nette, Kärlich and Kobern). We provide for the first time, temporal analyses of periodic degassing patterns (1 day and 2–6 days) in springs. The temporal fluctuations in cyclic behavior of 4–5 days that we recorded had not been observed previously but may be attributed to a fundamental change in either gas source processes, subsequent gas transport to the surface, or the influence of volcano–tectonic earthquakes. Periods observed at 10 and 15 days may be related to discharge pulses of magma in the same periodic rhythm. We report the potential hint that deep low-frequency (DLF) earthquakes might actively modulate degassing. Temporal analyses of the CO2–He and CO2–Rn couples indicate that all springs are interlinked by previously unknown fault systems. The volcanic activity in the EEVF is dormant but not extinct. To understand and monitor its magmatic and degassing systems in relation to new developments in DLF-earthquakes and magmatic recharging processes and to identify seasonal variation in gas flux, we recommend continual monitoring of geogenic gases in all available springs taken at short temporal intervals.

A New Geospatial Model Integrating a Fuzzy Rule-Based System in a GIS Platform to Partition a Complex Urban System in Homogeneous Urban Contexts

Here, we present a new unsupervised method aimed at obtaining a partition of a complex urban system in homogenous urban areas, called urban contexts. Our model integrates spatial analysis processes and a fuzzy rule-based system applied to manage the knowledge of domain experts; it is implemented using a GIS platform. The area of study is initially partitioned in microzones, homogeneous portions of the urban system, which are the atomic reference elements for the census data. With the contribution of domain experts, we identify the physical, morphological, environmental, and socio-economic indicators needed to identify synthetic characteristics of urban contexts and create the fuzzy rule set necessary for determining the type of urban context. We implement the set of spatial analysis processes required to calculate the indicators for the microzones and apply a Mamdani fuzzy rule system to classify the microzones. Finally, the partition of the area of study in urban contexts is obtained by dissolving continuous microzones belonging to the same type of urban context. Tests are performed on the Municipality of Pozzuoli (Naples, Italy); the reliability of the out model is measured by comparing the results with the ones obtained through a detailed analysis.