Climate change to severely impact West African basin scale irrigation in 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios

Current Conditions and Projected Changes in Crop Water Demand, Irrigation Requirement, and Water Availability over West Africa

Climate variability and change greatly affect agricultural and water resource management over West Africa. This paper presents the current characteristics and projected change in regional crop water demand (CWD), irrigation requirement (IR), and water availability (WA) over West Africa. Observed and simulated daily rainfall, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration are used to derive the above agro-meteorological and hydrological variables. For future periods, high-resolution climate data from three regional climate models under two different scenarios, i.e., representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Evaluation of the characteristics of present-day CWD, IR, and WA indicated that the ensemble mean of the model-derived outputs reproduced the prevailing spatial patterns of CWD and IR. Moreover, the wetter part of the domain, especially along the southern coast, was correctly delineated from the drier northern regions, despite having biases. The ensemble model also simulated the annual cycle of water supply and the bimodal pattern of the water demand curves correctly. In terms of future projections, the outcomes from the study suggest an average increase in the CWD by up to 0.808 mm/day and IR by 1.244 mm/day towards the end of the twenty-first century, compared to the baseline period. The hot-spot areas, where there is higher projected increment in CWD and IR, are over Senegal, Southern Mali, and Western Burkina Faso. In most cases, WA is projected to decrease towards the end of the twenty-first century by −0.418 mm/day. The largest decline in WA is found to be over Guinea and most of the eastern parts of West Africa. Despite the current under-utilization of the existing groundwater resources, the threat of global warming in reducing future WA and increasing CWD suggested caution on the scale of irrigation schemes and management strategies. The outcomes from the study could be a crucial input for the agricultural and water managers for introducing effective measures to ensure sustainability of irrigated farm lands.

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the major countries along the Belt and Road

Background

Climate change has altered global hydrological cycles mainly due to changes in temperature and precipitation, which may exacerbate the global and regional water shortage issues, especially in the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R).

Methods

In this paper, we assessed water supply, demand, and stress under three climate change scenarios in the major countries along the Belt and Road. We ensembled ten Global Climate Model (GCM) runoff data and downscaled it to a finer resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° by the random forest model.

Results

Our results showed that the GCM runoff was highly correlated with the FAO renewable water resources and thus could be used to estimate water supply. Climate change would increase water supply by 4.85%, 5.18%, 8.16% and water demand by 1.45%, 1.68%, 2.36% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios by 2050s, respectively. As a result, climate change will, in general, have little impact on water stress in the B&R countries as a whole. However, climate change will make future water resources more unevenly distributed among the B&R countries and regions, exacerbating water stress in some countries, especially in Central Asia and West Asia. Our results are informative for water resource managers and policymakers in the B&R countries to make sustainable water management strategies under future climate change.

Future Changes of Agro-Climate and Heat Extremes over S. Korea at 2 and 3 °C Global Warming Levels with CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Projection

The changes of agro-climate and heat extremes, and their impact on rice cultivation are assessed over South Korea in context of 2 and 3 °C global warming levels (GWL) compared to pre-industrial levels, with ensemble regional climate model projection produced under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–East Asia (CORDEX-EA) phase 2 protocols. It is found that the mean temperature increase under global warming has not only positive effects such as the extension of vegetable and crop periods and the widening of the cultivatable regions but also negative effects due to the shortening of the reproductive growth period. On the other hand, extreme heat changes in the future clearly show a negative effect on rice cultivation via the increase of hot days during heat-sensitive stages (27.16% under 2 °C GWL, 54.59% under 3 °C GWL) among rice phenology which determines the rice yield in tandem with rice flowering, ripening, and sterility problems. The major type of heat extreme is dominated by nationwide warm anomalies covering entire S. Korea, and the proportion of this type is projected to increase from 35.8% to 49.5% (57.4%) under 2 °C (3 °C) GWL in association with the thermal expansion of atmosphere which links to the favorable environment for occurring barotropic anti-cyclonic system.

Stakeholders’ Perception of Climate Actions in Some Developing Economies

Resilience, adaptation and mitigation are unique but complimentary actions in the fight against climate change (CC), particularly in developing countries. Although evidence suggest the inclusion of stakeholder opinions as part of the frameworks for combating CC, this evidence is not well substantiated, and is not extensively described in sub-Sahara African CC literature. While language remains a big issue in CC discussions, processes comprised within climate actions are equally as important as both the language and the results. It is on the basis of the confusion surrounding the language adopted as actions geared towards combating CC that this study seeks to examine the opinions/perception of CC actors in three West African nations. It looks at perceived and/or suitable solutions to selected CC-imposed challenges in the midst of socio-economic and environmental concerns. A total of 475 individuals, representing NGOs, public and private organizations involved with CC issues, as well as private persons concerned about CC, were recruited across Nigeria, Niger, and Benin, over a two-year period (April 2017–April 2019). A questionnaire containing 15 items was administered. The results of data analysis using chi-square and Fischer’s exact tests show that the mean number of CC actors differs within and across all three countries for all climate action types against CC-imposed challenges. While CC adaptive plans and projects are thought to yield immediate results, they are also observed to be cheaper in comparison to mitigation and resilience projects.

Assessment of the Potential Pollution of the Abidjan Unconfined Aquifer by Hydrocarbons

A study of the unconfined Continental Terminal aquifer in Abidjan District, located in a coastal sedimentary basin in Southern Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa), is conducted. This aquifer is the principal source of drinking water for the city of Abidjan. The water quality of the aquifer is affected by anthropogenic sources of pollution, such as scattered deposits of solid and liquid waste of all kinds. Additionally, the proliferation of gas stations, including potential tank leakage, must be considered in the event of an accident. To ensure the effective protection and management of the Abidjan groundwater, this work assesses the groundwater contamination risk of the Abidjan aquifer by hydrocarbons such as benzene. To achieve this objective, a numerical groundwater model that included the geological and hydrogeological data of the Abidjan aquifer was constructed with FEFLOW 7.1. A predictive simulation of groundwater flow coupled with the transport of dissolved benzene deposited on the soil surface at the N’Dotré and Anador gas stations was performed. The initial concentrations of dissolved benzene were 43.12 mg/L and 14.17 mg/L at the N’Dotré and Anador sites, respectively. The results revealed that a threshold concentration of 0.001 mg/L was reached after 44 years and two months at borehole ZE11, which is located four kilometers downgradient from the source. The maximum peak concentration of 0.011 mg/L was reached at this point after 47 years and two months. In this region, 14 other boreholes could be threatened by dissolved benzene pollution based on the simulation.