Augmenting GPS IWV estimations using spatio-temporal cloud distribution extracted from satellite data

Using Support Vector Machine (SVM) with GPS Ionospheric TEC Estimations to Potentially Predict Earthquake Events

There are significant controversies surrounding the detection of precursors that may precede earthquakes. Natural hazard signatures associated with strong earthquakes can appear in the lithosphere, troposphere, and ionosphere, where current remote sensing technologies have become valuable tools for detecting and measuring early warning signals of stress build-up deep in the Earth’s crust (presumably associated with earthquake events). Here, we propose implementing a machine learning support vector machine (SVM) technique, applied with GPS ionospheric total electron content (TEC) pre-processed time series estimations, to evaluate potential precursors caused by earthquakes and manifested as disturbances in the TEC data. After filtering and screening our data for solar or geomagnetic influences at different time scales, our results indicate that for large earthquakes (>Mw 6), true negative predictions can be achieved with 85.7% accuracy, and true positive predictions with an accuracy of 80%. We tested our method with different skill scores, such as accuracy (0.83), precision (0.85), recall (0.8), the Heidke skill score (0.66), and true skill statistics (0.66).

Review on the Role of GNSS Meteorology in Monitoring Water Vapor for Atmospheric Physics

After 30 years since the beginning of the Global Positioning System (GPS), or, more generally, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology, this technique has proven to be a reliable method for retrieving atmospheric water vapor; it is low-cost, weather independent, with high temporal resolution and is highly accurate and precise. GNSS ground-based networks are becoming denser, and the first stations installed have now quite long time-series that allow the study of the temporal features of water vapor and its relevant role inside the climate system. In this review, the different GNSS methodologies to retrieve atmospheric water vapor content re-examined, such as tomography, conversion of GNSS tropospheric delay to water vapor estimates, analyses of errors, and combinations of GNSS with other sources to enhance water vapor information. Moreover, the use of these data in different kinds of studies is discussed. For instance, the GNSS technique is commonly used as a reference tool for validating other water vapor products (e.g., radiosounding, radiometers onboard satellite platforms or ground-based instruments). Additionally, GNSS retrievals are largely used in order to determine the high spatio-temporal variability and long-term trends of atmospheric water vapor or in models with the goal of determining its notable influence on the climate system (e.g., assimilation in numerical prediction, as input to radiative transfer models, study of circulation patterns, etc.).

On the Potential of Improving WRF Model Forecasts by Assimilation of High-Resolution GPS-Derived Water-Vapor Maps Augmented with METEOSAT-11 Data

Improving the accuracy of numerical weather predictions remains a challenging task. The absence of sufficiently detailed temporal and spatial real-time in-situ measurements poses a critical gap regarding the proper representation of atmospheric moisture fields, such as water vapor distribution, which are highly imperative for improving weather predictions accuracy. The estimated amount of the total vertically integrated water vapor (IWV), which can be derived from the attenuation of global positioning systems (GPS) signals, can support various atmospheric models at global, regional, and local scales. Currently, several existing atmospheric numerical models can estimate the IWV amount. However, they do not provide accurate results compared with in-situ measurements such as radiosondes. Here, we present a new strategy for assimilating 2D IWV regional maps estimations, derived from combined GPS and METEOSAT satellite imagery data, to improve Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model predictions accuracy in Israel and surrounding areas. As opposed to previous studies, which used point measurements of IWV in the assimilation procedure, in the current study, we assimilate quasi-continuous 2D GPS IWV maps, combined with METEOSAT-11 data. Using the suggested methodology, our results indicate an improvement of more than 30% in the root mean square error (RMSE) of WRF forecasts after assimilation relative standalone WRF, when both are compared to the radiosonde measured data near the Mediterranean coast. Moreover, significant improvements along the Jordan Rift Valley and Dead Sea Valley areas are obtained when compared to 2D IWV regional maps estimations. Improvements in these areas suggest the impact of the assimilated high resolution IWV maps, with initialization times which coincide with the Mediterranean Sea Breeze propagation from the coastline to highland stations, as the distance to the Mediterranean Sea shore, along with other features, dictates its arrival times.