Mathematical modelling of the impact of treating latent tuberculosis infection in the elderly in a city with intermediate tuberculosis burden

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tuberculosis in older adults: challenges and best practices in the Western Pacific Region

The Western Pacific has one of the fastest-growing older adult populations globally, and tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the foremost infectious causes of disease and death in the region. Older adults are at higher risk of TB due to immunosenescence, comorbidities, and increased institutionalisation. Atypical symptoms and reduced access to health services may delay care-seeking and TB diagnosis, while co-morbidity and increased risk of adverse drug reactions complicate TB treatment. Post-TB sequelae and socioeconomic challenges may decrease the quality of life after TB treatment completion. Despite their high disease burden and special challenges, there is a lack of regionally coordinated policies and guidelines to manage TB among older adults. Routine TB screening at aged-care facilities, age-friendly infrastructure and services, awareness of atypical TB features, integration of TB and non-communicable diseases services, and person-centred approaches to treatment support could improve TB management among older adults. Addressing these challenges and adopting the best practices identified should inform policy formulation and implementation.

Funding

This project was funded by 1) the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific, with financial contributions from the Government of the Republic of Korea through the Korean Disease Control and Prevention Agency and the Government of Japan through the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and 2) NUS Start-up Grant. The funders had no role in the paper design, collection, analysis, and interpretation of data and in writing of the paper.

Treatment strategies for the latent tuberculosis infections

This study investigates the dynamics of tuberculosis transmission through mathematical modeling, incorporating exogenous reinfections and different treatment approaches for latent tuberculosis infections. We examine three types of treatment rates: saturated, unsaturated, and mass screening-then-treatment. Our results reveal that both saturated treatment and mass screening-then-treatment can lead to a backward bifurcation, while unsaturated treatment does not. To determine the global dynamics of the models, we employ a persistent approach that avoids classifying the steady mode. By applying the models to China, we demonstrate that the data favors the use of unsaturated treatment. If unsaturated treatment is not feasible, the optimal strategy is to screen high-risk groups, identify LTBIs, and administer unsaturated treatment. Saturated treatments are not recommended.

The prevalence of tuberculosis infection in India: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background & objectives

The National Prevalence Survey of India (2019-2021) estimated 31 per cent tuberculosis infection (TBI) burden among individuals above 15 years of age. However, so far little is known about the TBI burden among the different risk groups in India. Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis, aimed to estimate the prevalence of TBI in India based on geographies, sociodemographic profile, and risk groups.

Methods

To identify the prevalence of TBI in India, data sources such as MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Scopus were searched for articles reporting data between 2013-2022, irrespective of the language and study setting. TBI data were extracted from 77 publications and pooled prevalence was estimated from the 15 community-based cohort studies. Articles were reviewed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines and were sourced using a predefined search strategy from different databases.

Results

Out of 10,521 records, 77 studies (46 cross-sectional and 31 cohort studies) were included. The pooled TBI prevalence for India based on the community-based cohort studies was estimated as 41 per cent [95% confidence interval (CI) 29.5-52.6%] irrespective of the risk of acquiring it, while the estimation was 36 per cent (95% CI 28-45%) prevalence observed among the general population excluding high-risk groups. Regions with high active TB burden were found to have a high TBI prevalence such as Delhi and Tamil Nadu. An increasing trend of TBI was observed with increasing age in India.

Interpretation & conclusions

This review demonstrated a high prevalence of TBI in India. The burden of TBI was commensurate with active TB prevalence suggesting possible conversion of TBI to active TB. A high burden was recorded among people residing in the northern and southern regions of the country. Such local epidemiologic variation need to be considered to reprioritize and implement-tailored strategies for managing TBI in India.

Prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection among participants of the national LTBI screening program in South Korea - A problem of low coverage rate with current LTBI strategy

Background

The Government of South Korea launched a national preemptive latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) screening program in 2016, including more than 1. 6 million population in congregate settings. The objective of this study was to analyze LTBI prevalence and its risk factors in each setting. Additionally, the proportion of LTBI pool covered by the current national LTBI strategy was investigated.

Methods

Database for results of interferon gamma release assay (IGRA), X-ray, and baseline demographic information was linked with National Health Information Database, national tuberculosis (TB) surveillance database, and national contact investigation database. Participants were categorized into three groups: Group A, workers of postpartum care centers, social welfare facilities and educational institutions; Group B, first year students in high school and out-of-school youths; and Group C, inmates of correctional facilities. Relative risks of LTBI by sex, age, place of living, income level, and comorbidities were calculated.

Results

A total of 444,394 participants in Group A, 272,224 participants in Group B, and 11,511 participants in Group C who participated in the national LTBI screening program between 2017 and 2018 were included, with LTBI prevalence of 20.7, 2.0, and 33.2%, respectively. Age was the single most important risk factor in Group A and Group C. Low-income level was another risk factor commonly identified in all groups. Among participants with positive IGRA results, 2.7, 4.4, and 3.3% in Groups A, B and C, respectively, had past TB exposure history since 2013. Current LTBI guideline targeting high or moderate TB risk disease covered 6.5, 0.6, and 1.1% of participants with positive IGRA results in Groups A, B and C, respectively.

Conclusion

Only a small proportion of participants with positive IGRA results could be covered by the current LTBI strategy. Expansion of LTBI strategy by identifying further high-TB risk group in the general population is required.

Independent effect of weather, air pollutants, and seasonal influenza on risk of tuberculosis hospitalization: An analysis of 22-year hospital admission data

BACKGROUND

While influenza infections and environmental factors have been documented as potential drivers of tuberculosis, no investigations have simultaneously examined their impact on tuberculosis at a population level. This study thereby made use of Hong Kong's surveillance data over 22 years to elucidate the temporal association between environmental influences, influenza infections, and tuberculosis activity.

METHODS

Weekly total numbers of hospital admissions due to tuberculosis, meteorological data, and outdoor air pollutant concentrations in Hong Kong during 1998-2019 were obtained. All-type influenza-like illness positive (ILI+) rate and type-specific ILI+ rates were used as proxies for influenza activity. Quasi-Poisson generalized additive models together with distributed lag non-linear models were used to assess the association of interest.

RESULTS

A total of 164,116 hospital admissions due to tuberculosis were notified in public settings over a period of 22 years. The cumulative adjusted relative risk (ARR) of hospital admission due to tuberculosis was 1.07 (95% CI, 1.00-1.14) when the mean ambient temperature increased from 15.1 °C (the 5th percentile) to 24.5 °C (median). Short-term exposure to air pollutants was not found to be statistically significantly related to tuberculosis hospitalization. Accounting for the environmental covariates in the analysis, the cumulative ARR of tuberculosis admission was elevated to 1.05 (95% CI, 1.01-1.08) when the rate of ILI+ total increased from zero to 19.9 per 1000 consultations, the 95th percentile.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrated that increased influenza activity and higher temperature were related to a higher risk of tuberculosis admissions. Stepping up the promotion of influenza vaccination, especially before the summer season, may lower the risk of tuberculosis infection/reactivation for vulnerable groups (e.g. elderly born before the launch of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination programme).

Synthesis of fluoro-rich pyrimidine-5-carbonitriles as antitubercular agents against H37Rv receptor

The purpose of this study was to prepare various derivatives of 4-amino-2-(3-fluoro-5-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl)-6-arylpyrimidine-5-carbonitrile (6a–6h) using a three-step procedure. The derivatives were screened in vitro for activity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain H37Rv. The activity was expressed as the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) in μg/mL (μM). Eight compounds showed activity against Mtb H37Rv, and among them, 6f showed the best value of MIC, IC50 (53 μM) and IC90 (62 μM). Minimum bactericidal concentration of compound 6f was higher than its MIC and was more time-dependent than the concentration. Compound 6f was more active against M. tuberculosis H37Rv under low oxygen than metronidazole and did not show good potency in different treatments and non-tuberculous mycobacteria. Furthermore, a molecular docking study against mycobacterial enoyl-ACP reductase (InhA) could provide valuable insights into the plausible mechanism of action, which could set the theme for lead optimization.

Fractal-fractional and stochastic analysis of norovirus transmission epidemic model with vaccination effects

In this paper, we investigate an norovirus (NoV) epidemic model with stochastic perturbation and the new definition of a nonlocal fractal-fractional derivative in the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) sense. First we present some basic properties including equilibria and the basic reproduction number of the model. Further, we analyze that the proposed stochastic system has a unique global positive solution. Next, the sufficient conditions of the extinction and the existence of a stationary probability measure for the disease are established. Furthermore, the fractal-fractional dynamics of the proposed model under Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) derivative of fractional order "[Formula: see text]" and fractal dimension "[Formula: see text]" have also been addressed. Besides, coupling the non-linear functional analysis with fixed point theory, the qualitative analysis of the proposed model has been performed. The numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the analytical results. It is believed that this study will comprehensively strengthen the theoretical basis for comprehending the dynamics of the worldwide contagious diseases.

Seasonality of tuberculosis in intermediate endemicity setting dominated by reactivation diseases in Hong Kong

Summer-spring predominance of tuberculosis (TB) has been widely reported. The relative contributions of exogenous recent infection versus endogenous reactivation to such seasonality remains poorly understood. Monthly TB notifications data between 2005 and 2017 in Hong Kong involving 64,386 cases (41% aged ≥ 65; male-to-female ratio 1.74:1) were examined for the timing, amplitude, and predictability of variation of seasonality. The observed seasonal variabilities were correlated with demographics and clinical presentations, using wavelet analysis coupled with dynamic generalised linear regression models. Overall, TB notifications peaked annually in June and July. No significant annual seasonality was demonstrated for children aged ≤ 14 irrespective of gender. The strongest seasonality was detected in the elderly (≥ 65) among males, while seasonal pattern was more prominent in the middle-aged (45–64) and adults (30–44) among females. The stronger TB seasonality among older adults in Hong Kong suggested that the pattern has been contributed largely by reactivation diseases precipitated by defective immunity whereas seasonal variation of recent infection was uncommon.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of High-Risk Groups Tuberculosis Screening in Malaysia

Screening of high-risk groups for Tuberculosis (TB) is considered as the cornerstone for TB elimination but the measure of cost-effectiveness is also crucial in deciding the strategy for TB screening. This study aims to measure the cost-effectiveness of TB screening between the various high-risk groups in Malaysia. A decision tree model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of TB screening among the high-risk groups from a provider perspective using secondary data from the year 2016 to 2018. The results are presented in terms of an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER), expressed as cost per TB case detected. Deterministic and Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis was also performed to measure the robustness of the model. TB screening among Person Living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (PL HIV) was the most cost-effective strategy, with MYR 2,597.00 per TB case detected. This was followed by elderly, prisoners and smokers with MYR 2,868.62, MYR 3,065.24, and MYR 4,327.76 per one TB case detected, respectively. There was an incremental cost of MYR 2.49 per screening, and 3.4 TB case detection per 1,000 screening for TB screening among PL HIV in relation to TB screening among prisoners. The probability of symptomatic cases diagnosed as TB was the key driver for increasing cost-effectiveness efficacy among PL HIV. Results of the study suggest prioritization of high-risk group TB screening program by focusing on the most cost-effective strategy such as screening among PL HIV, prisoners and elderly, which has a lower cost per TB case detected.

The circRNA_102911/miR-129-5p/SOX6 axis is involved with T lymphocyte immune function in elderly patients with laparoscopic left hepatectomy for hepatolithiasis

The aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of laparoscopic left hepatectomy (LLH) for hepatolithiasis on the T lymphocyte immune changes of elderly patients and to analyze underlying mechanisms of action behind these changes. A total of 164 patients who underwent LLH due to left-sided hepatolithiasis were recruited. In terms of T lymphocyte immune changes, it was found that firstly, the basic quantity of peripheral lymphocytes in the elderly group was significantly lower than that in a younger preoperative group. Secondly, after surgical trauma, the immune function of T lymphocytes had a significant decline and lasted longer when compared with younger patients, which was reflected by the perioperative changes in the T lymphocyte proliferative ability, levels of IL-2 secreted by T lymphocytes and the percentage of CD3⁺/CD4⁺ T lymphocytes in the peripheral blood. Circular RNA (circRNA) 102911 (102911) was upregulated and microRNA (miR)-129-5p was downregulated in CD3⁺/CD4⁺ T lymphocytes from elderly patients with LLH for hepatolithiasis. Furthermore, the overexpression of 102911 inhibited the proliferation of CD3⁺/CD4⁺ T lymphocytes as well as promoting cell apoptosis, with the opposite effects being observed on knockdown of 102911. miR-129-5p is involved in the proliferation and apoptosis of CD3⁺/CD4⁺ T lymphocytes and may be a promising target of 102911. Moreover, SOX6 is a downstream molecule of miR-129-5p. Immune function and number of T lymphocytes decreased significantly after surgical trauma compared to younger patients, and this decline lasted longer in older patients treated with LLH for hepatolithiasis. The 102911/miR-129-5p/SOX6 axis was found to be involved in T lymphocytes immune function, which provided a novel insight for the treatment of elderly patients with hepatolithiasis.