Non-Monotonic Aerosol Effect on Precipitation in Convective Clouds over Tropical Oceans

Observational evidence and mechanisms of aerosol effects on precipitation

Aerosols greatly influence precipitation characteristics, thereby impacting the regional climate and human life. As an indispensable factor for cloud formation and a critical radiation budget regulator, aerosols can affect precipitation intensity, frequency, geographical distribution, area, and time. However, discrepancies exist among current studies due to aerosol properties, precipitation types, the vertical location of aerosols and meteorological conditions. The development of technology has driven advances in current research, but understanding the aerosol effects on precipitation remain complex and challenging. This paper revolves around the following topics from the two perspectives of Aerosol-Radiation Interaction (ARI) and Aerosol-Cloud Interaction (ACI): (1) the influence of different vertical locations of absorbing/scattering aerosols on the atmospheric thermal structure; (2) the fundamental theories of ARI reducing surface wind speed, redistributing water vapour and energy, and then modulating precipitation intensity; (3) different aerosol types (absorbing versus scattering) and aerosol concentrations causing different precipitation diurnal and weekly variations; (4) microphysical processes (cloud water competition, invigoration effect, and evaporation cooling) and observational evidence of different effects of aerosols on precipitation intensity, including enhancing, inhibiting, and transitional effects from enhancement to suppression; and (5) how meteorology, water vapor and dynamics influencing the effect of ACI and ARI on precipitation. In addition, this review lists the existing issues and future research directions for attaining a more comprehensive understanding of aerosol effects on precipitation. Overall, this review advances our understanding of aerosol effects on precipitation and could guide the improvement of weather and climate models to predict complex aerosol-precipitation interactions more accurately.

Reproductive success of Bornean orangutan males: scattered in time but clustered in space

Abstract

The social and mating systems of orangutans, one of our closest relatives, remain poorly understood. Orangutans (Pongo spp.) are highly sexually dimorphic and females are philopatric and maintain individual, but overlapping home ranges, whereas males disperse, are non-territorial and wide-ranging, and show bimaturism, with many years between reaching sexual maturity and attaining full secondary sexual characteristics (including cheek pads (flanges) and emitting long calls). We report on 21 assigned paternities, among 35 flanged and 15 unflanged, genotyped male Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii), studied from 2003 to 2018 in Tuanan (Central Kalimantan, Indonesia). All 10 infants born since mid-2003 with an already identified sire were sired by flanged males. All adult males ranged well beyond the study area (c. 1000 ha), and their dominance relations fluctuated even within short periods. However, 5 of the 10 identified sires had multiple offspring within the monitored area. Several sired over a period of c. 10 years, which overlapped with siring periods of other males. The long-calling behavior of sires indicated they were not consistently dominant over other males in the area around the time of known conceptions. Instead, when they were seen in the area, the known sires spent most of their time within the home ranges of the females whose offspring they sired. Overall, successful sires were older and more often resident than others.

Significance statement

It is difficult to assess reproductive success for individuals of long-lived species, especially for dispersing males, who cannot be monitored throughout their lives. Due to extremely long interbirth intervals, orangutans have highly male-skewed operational sex ratios and thus intensive male-male competition for every conception. Paternity analyses matched 21 immature Bornean orangutans with their most likely sire (only 10 of 50 genotyped males) in a natural population. Half of these identified sires had multiple offspring in the study area spread over periods of at least 10 years, despite frequently ranging outside this area. Dominance was a poor predictor of success, but, consistent with female mating tactics to reduce the risk of infanticide, known "sires" tended to have relatively high local presence, which seems to contribute to the males' siring success. The results highlight the importance of large protected areas to enable a natural pattern of dispersal and ranging.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00265-023-03407-6.

A Global Climatology of Dust Aerosols Based on Satellite Data: Spatial, Seasonal and Inter-Annual Patterns over the Period 2005–2019

A satellite-based algorithm is developed and used to determine the presence of dust aerosols on a global scale. The algorithm uses as input aerosol optical properties from the MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Aqua Collection 6.1 and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)-Aura version v003 (OMAER-UV) datasets and identifies the existence of dust aerosols in the atmosphere by applying specific thresholds, which ensure the coarse size and the absorptivity of dust aerosols, on the input optical properties. The utilized aerosol optical properties are the multiwavelength aerosol optical depth (AOD), the Aerosol Absorption Index (AI) and the Ångström Exponent (a). The algorithm operates on a daily basis and at 1° × 1° latitude-longitude spatial resolution for the period 2005–2019 and computes the absolute and relative frequency of the occurrence of dust. The monthly and annual mean frequencies are calculated on a pixel level for each year of the study period, enabling the study of the seasonal as well as the inter-annual variation of dust aerosols’ occurrence all over the globe. Temporal averaging is also applied to the annual values in order to estimate the 15-year climatological mean values. Apart from temporal, a spatial averaging is also applied for the entire globe as well as for specific regions of interest, namely great global deserts and areas of desert dust export. According to the algorithm results, the highest frequencies of dust occurrence (up to 160 days/year) are primarily observed over the western part of North Africa (Sahara), and over the broader area of Bodélé, and secondarily over the Asian Taklamakan desert (140 days/year). For most of the study regions, the maximum frequencies appear in boreal spring and/or summer and the minimum ones in winter or autumn. A clear seasonality of global dust is revealed, with the lowest frequencies in November–December and the highest ones in June. Finally, an increasing trend of global dust frequency of occurrence from 2005 to 2019, equal to 56.2%, is also found. Such an increasing trend is observed over all study regions except for North Middle East, where a slight decreasing trend (−2.4%) is found.

Satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth and carbon monoxide and comparison with ground data

Satellite data of aerosol optical depths (AODs) from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and carbon monoxide (CO) columns from the measurements of pollution in the troposphere (MOPITT) were collected for the study in Northern Thailand. Comparative analyses were conducted of MODIS (Terra and Aqua) AODs with ground particulate matter with diameter below 10 microns (PM₁₀) concentrations and MOPITT CO surface/total columns with ground CO concentrations for 2014-2017. Temporal variations in both the satellite and ground datasets were in good agreement. High levels of air pollutants were common during March-April. The annual analysis of both satellite and ground datasets revealed the highest levels of air pollutants in 2016 and the lowest levels in 2017. The AODs and PM₁₀ concentrations were at higher levels in the morning than in the afternoon. The comparison between satellite products showed that AODs correlated better with the CO total columns than the CO surface columns. The regression analysis presented better performance of Aqua AODs-PM₁₀ than Terra AODs-PM₁₀ with correlation coefficients (r) of 0.72-0.83 and 0.57-0.79, respectively. Ground CO concentrations correlated better with MOPITT CO surface columns (r = 0.65-0.73) than with CO total columns (r = 0.56-0.72). The r values of satellite and ground datasets were greatest when the analysis was restricted to November-March (dry weather periods with possible low mixing height (MH)). Overall, the results suggested that the relationships between satellite and ground data can be used to develop predictive models for ground PM₁₀ and CO in northern Thailand, particularly during air pollution episodes located where ground monitoring stations are limited.

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.