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Olejarz JW, Nowak MA. Gene drives for the extinction of wild metapopulations. J Theor Biol 2024; 577:111654. [PMID: 37984587 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2023] [Revised: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
Population-suppressing gene drives may be capable of extinguishing wild populations, with proposed applications in conservation, agriculture, and public health. However, unintended and potentially disastrous consequences of release of drive-engineered individuals are extremely difficult to predict. We propose a model for the dynamics of a sex ratio-biasing drive, and using simulations, we show that failure of the suppression drive is often a natural outcome due to stochastic and spatial effects. We further demonstrate rock-paper-scissors dynamics among wild-type, drive-infected, and extinct populations that can persist for arbitrarily long times. Gene drive-mediated extinction of wild populations entails critical complications that lurk far beyond the reach of laboratory-based studies. Our findings help in addressing these challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason W Olejarz
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA; Department of Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA.
| | - Martin A Nowak
- Department of Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
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2
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Kim J, Harris KD, Kim IK, Shemesh S, Messer PW, Greenbaum G. Incorporating ecology into gene drive modelling. Ecol Lett 2023; 26 Suppl 1:S62-S80. [PMID: 37840022 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2022] [Revised: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/15/2023] [Indexed: 10/17/2023]
Abstract
Gene drive technology, in which fast-spreading engineered drive alleles are introduced into wild populations, represents a promising new tool in the fight against vector-borne diseases, agricultural pests and invasive species. Due to the risks involved, gene drives have so far only been tested in laboratory settings while their population-level behaviour is mainly studied using mathematical and computational models. The spread of a gene drive is a rapid evolutionary process that occurs over timescales similar to many ecological processes. This can potentially generate strong eco-evolutionary feedback that could profoundly affect the dynamics and outcome of a gene drive release. We, therefore, argue for the importance of incorporating ecological features into gene drive models. We describe the key ecological features that could affect gene drive behaviour, such as population structure, life-history, environmental variation and mode of selection. We review previous gene drive modelling efforts and identify areas where further research is needed. As gene drive technology approaches the level of field experimentation, it is crucial to evaluate gene drive dynamics, potential outcomes, and risks realistically by including ecological processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaehee Kim
- Department of Computational Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Keith D Harris
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Isabel K Kim
- Department of Computational Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Shahar Shemesh
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Philipp W Messer
- Department of Computational Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Gili Greenbaum
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
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3
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Combs MA, Golnar AJ, Overcash JM, Lloyd AL, Hayes KR, O'Brochta DA, Pepin KM. Leveraging eco-evolutionary models for gene drive risk assessment. Trends Genet 2023:S0168-9525(23)00090-2. [PMID: 37198063 DOI: 10.1016/j.tig.2023.04.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Revised: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Engineered gene drives create potential for both widespread benefits and irreversible harms to ecosystems. CRISPR-based systems of allelic conversion have rapidly accelerated gene drive research across diverse taxa, putting field trials and their necessary risk assessments on the horizon. Dynamic process-based models provide flexible quantitative platforms to predict gene drive outcomes in the context of system-specific ecological and evolutionary features. Here, we synthesize gene drive dynamic modeling studies to highlight research trends, knowledge gaps, and emergent principles, organized around their genetic, demographic, spatial, environmental, and implementation features. We identify the phenomena that most significantly influence model predictions, discuss limitations of biological complexity and uncertainty, and provide insights to promote responsible development and model-assisted risk assessment of gene drives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew A Combs
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA.
| | - Andrew J Golnar
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA
| | - Justin M Overcash
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Biotechnology Regulatory Services, 20737, USA
| | - Alun L Lloyd
- North Carolina State University, Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA
| | - Keith R Hayes
- The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Data 61, Hobart, TAS, 7004, Australia
| | - David A O'Brochta
- Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, North Bethesda, MD, 20852, USA
| | - Kim M Pepin
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA
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4
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Frieß JL, Lalyer CR, Giese B, Simon S, Otto M. Review of gene drive modelling and implications for risk assessment of gene drive organisms. Ecol Modell 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
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5
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Stochastic models of Mendelian and reverse transcriptional inheritance in state-structured cancer populations. Sci Rep 2022; 12:13079. [PMID: 35906318 PMCID: PMC9338039 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-17456-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2022] [Accepted: 07/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent evidence suggests that a polyaneuploid cancer cell (PACC) state may play a key role in the adaptation of cancer cells to stressful environments and in promoting therapeutic resistance. The PACC state allows cancer cells to pause cell division and to avoid DNA damage and programmed cell death. Transition to the PACC state may also lead to an increase in the cancer cell’s ability to generate heritable variation (evolvability). One way this can occur is through evolutionary triage. Under this framework, cells gradually gain resistance by scaling hills on a fitness landscape through a process of mutation and selection. Another way this can happen is through self-genetic modification whereby cells in the PACC state find a viable solution to the stressor and then undergo depolyploidization, passing it on to their heritably resistant progeny. Here, we develop a stochastic model to simulate both of these evolutionary frameworks. We examine the impact of treatment dosage and extent of self-genetic modification on eco-evolutionary dynamics of cancer cells with aneuploid and PACC states. We find that under low doses of therapy, evolutionary triage performs better whereas under high doses of therapy, self-genetic modification is favored. This study generates predictions for teasing apart these biological hypotheses, examines the implications of each in the context of cancer, and provides a modeling framework to compare Mendelian and non-traditional forms of inheritance.
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Metchanun N, Borgemeister C, Amzati G, von Braun J, Nikolov M, Selvaraj P, Gerardin J. Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Evol Appl 2022; 15:132-148. [PMID: 35126652 PMCID: PMC8792473 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2021] [Revised: 11/15/2021] [Accepted: 11/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex-ratio-distorting gene drives, such as driving-Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent-based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating driving-Y gene drive mosquitoes in malaria elimination strategies that include existing interventions such as insecticide-treated nets and case management of symptomatic malaria. Gene drive mosquitoes could eliminate malaria and were the most cost-effective intervention overall if the drive component was highly effective with at least 95% X-shredder efficiency at relatively low fertility cost, and associated cost of deployment below 7.17 $int per person per year. Suppression gene drive could be a cost-effective supplemental intervention for malaria elimination, but tight constraints on drive effectiveness and cost ceilings may limit its feasibility.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Gaston Amzati
- Université Evangélique en AfriqueBukavuDemocratic Republic of the Congo
| | | | | | | | - Jaline Gerardin
- Institute for Disease ModelingBellevueWashingtonUSA
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Institute for Global HealthNorthwestern UniversityChicagoIllinoisUSA
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7
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Devos Y, Mumford JD, Bonsall MB, Glandorf DCM, Quemada HD. Risk management recommendations for environmental releases of gene drive modified insects. Biotechnol Adv 2021; 54:107807. [PMID: 34314837 DOI: 10.1016/j.biotechadv.2021.107807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2021] [Revised: 07/01/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
The ability to engineer gene drives (genetic elements that bias their own inheritance) has sparked enthusiasm and concerns. Engineered gene drives could potentially be used to address long-standing challenges in the control of insect disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, or help to rescue endangered species. However, risk concerns and uncertainty associated with potential environmental release of gene drive modified insects (GDMIs) have led some stakeholders to call for a global moratorium on such releases or the application of other strict precautionary measures to mitigate perceived risk assessment and risk management challenges. Instead, we provide recommendations that may help to improve the relevance of risk assessment and risk management frameworks for environmental releases of GDMIs. These recommendations include: (1) developing additional and more practical risk assessment guidance to ensure appropriate levels of safety; (2) making policy goals and regulatory decision-making criteria operational for use in risk assessment so that what constitutes harm is clearly defined; (3) ensuring a more dynamic interplay between risk assessment and risk management to manage uncertainty through closely interlinked pre-release modelling and post-release monitoring; (4) considering potential risks against potential benefits, and comparing them with those of alternative actions to account for a wider (management) context; and (5) implementing a modular, phased approach to authorisations for incremental acceptance and management of risks and uncertainty. Along with providing stakeholder engagement opportunities in the risk analysis process, the recommendations proposed may enable risk managers to make choices that are more proportionate and adaptive to potential risks, uncertainty and benefits of GDMI applications, and socially robust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yann Devos
- Scientific Committee and Emerging Risk (SCER) Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy.
| | - John D Mumford
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom
| | | | - Debora C M Glandorf
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Hector D Quemada
- Department of Biological Sciences, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI, United States
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8
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A genetically encoded anti-CRISPR protein constrains gene drive spread and prevents population suppression. Nat Commun 2021; 12:3977. [PMID: 34172748 PMCID: PMC8233359 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24214-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
CRISPR-based gene drives offer promising means to reduce the burden of pests and vector-borne diseases. These techniques consist of releasing genetically modified organisms carrying CRISPR-Cas nucleases designed to bias their inheritance and rapidly propagate desired modifications. Gene drives can be intended to reduce reproductive capacity of harmful insects or spread anti-pathogen effectors through wild populations, even when these confer fitness disadvantages. Technologies capable of halting the spread of gene drives may prove highly valuable in controlling, counteracting, and even reverting their effect on individual organisms as well as entire populations. Here we show engineering and testing of a genetic approach, based on the germline expression of a phage-derived anti-CRISPR protein (AcrIIA4), able to inactivate CRISPR-based gene drives and restore their inheritance to Mendelian rates in the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae. Modeling predictions and cage testing show that a single release of male mosquitoes carrying the AcrIIA4 protein can block the spread of a highly effective suppressive gene drive preventing population collapse of caged malaria mosquitoes.
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Devos Y, Mumford JD, Bonsall MB, Camargo AM, Firbank LG, Glandorf DCM, Nogué F, Paraskevopoulos K, Wimmer EA. Potential use of gene drive modified insects against disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species poses new challenges for risk assessment. Crit Rev Biotechnol 2021; 42:254-270. [PMID: 34167401 DOI: 10.1080/07388551.2021.1933891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Potential future application of engineered gene drives (GDs), which bias their own inheritance and can spread genetic modifications in wild target populations, has sparked both enthusiasm and concern. Engineered GDs in insects could potentially be used to address long-standing challenges in control of disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, or help to rescue endangered species, and thus provide important public benefits. However, there are concerns that the deliberate environmental release of GD modified insects may pose different or new harms to animal and human health and the wider environment, and raise novel challenges for risk assessment. Risk assessors, risk managers, developers, potential applicants and other stakeholders at many levels are currently discussing whether there is a need to develop new or additional risk assessment guidance for the environmental release of GD modified organisms, including insects. Developing new or additional guidance that is useful and practical is a challenge, especially at an international level, as risk assessors, risk managers and many other stakeholders have different, often contrasting, opinions and perspectives toward the environmental release of GD modified organisms, and on the adequacy of current risk assessment frameworks for such organisms. Here, we offer recommendations to overcome some of the challenges associated with the potential future development of new or additional risk assessment guidance for GD modified insects and provide considerations on areas where further risk assessment guidance may be required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yann Devos
- GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy
| | - John D Mumford
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | | | - Ana M Camargo
- GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy
| | | | - Debora C M Glandorf
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Fabien Nogué
- Institut Jean-Pierre Bourgin, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Versailles, France
| | | | - Ernst A Wimmer
- Johann Friedrich Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology, GZMB, Georg August University, Göttingen, Germany
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Naegeli H, Bresson J, Dalmay T, Dewhurst IC, Epstein MM, Guerche P, Hejatko J, Moreno FJ, Mullins E, Nogué F, Rostoks N, Sánchez Serrano JJ, Savoini G, Veromann E, Veronesi F, Bonsall MB, Mumford J, Wimmer EA, Devos Y, Paraskevopoulos K, Firbank LG. Adequacy and sufficiency evaluation of existing EFSA guidelines for the molecular characterisation, environmental risk assessment and post-market environmental monitoring of genetically modified insects containing engineered gene drives. EFSA J 2020; 18:e06297. [PMID: 33209154 PMCID: PMC7658669 DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Advances in molecular and synthetic biology are enabling the engineering of gene drives in insects for disease vector/pest control. Engineered gene drives (that bias their own inheritance) can be designed either to suppress interbreeding target populations or modify them with a new genotype. Depending on the engineered gene drive system, theoretically, a genetic modification of interest could spread through target populations and persist indefinitely, or be restricted in its spread or persistence. While research on engineered gene drives and their applications in insects is advancing at a fast pace, it will take several years for technological developments to move to practical applications for deliberate release into the environment. Some gene drive modified insects (GDMIs) have been tested experimentally in the laboratory, but none has been assessed in small-scale confined field trials or in open release trials as yet. There is concern that the deliberate release of GDMIs in the environment may have possible irreversible and unintended consequences. As a proactive measure, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has been requested by the European Commission to review whether its previously published guidelines for the risk assessment of genetically modified animals (EFSA, 2012 and 2013), including insects (GMIs), are adequate and sufficient for GDMIs, primarily disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, for deliberate release into the environment. Under this mandate, EFSA was not requested to develop risk assessment guidelines for GDMIs. In this Scientific Opinion, the Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms (GMO) concludes that EFSA's guidelines are adequate, but insufficient for the molecular characterisation (MC), environmental risk assessment (ERA) and post-market environmental monitoring (PMEM) of GDMIs. While the MC,ERA and PMEM of GDMIs can build on the existing risk assessment framework for GMIs that do not contain engineered gene drives, there are specific areas where further guidance is needed for GDMIs.
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